Avid investors prepped for Apple surprises at NAB

Posted:
in Mac Software edited January 2014
Investment research firm PiperJaffray on Thursday cautioned shareholders of video production firm Avid Technology, Inc. that shares could experience some short-term volatility should Apple Inc. pull something from its sleeve at next month's NAB conference.



Sr. Analyst Gene Munster, who maintains an outperform rating on shares of Avid, told investors that the "talk on the Street" is that Apple is planning an event for April 15th at the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) conference in Las Vegas, Nevd.



"At last year's NAB, expectations were that Apple would announce a high end version of Final Cut, but this did not materialize," he said." We believe that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that if Apple holds a special event at NAB, it will be the venue for this announcement."



Munster in a note to investors acknowledged that there is likely to be concern over what Apple may be holding, but said he does not believe a higher end version of Apple's Final Cut would end up significantly impacting Avid's pro post production business.



"Don't expect Avid Pro users to flock to Apple if a high-end version of Final Cut is announced," the analyst wrote. Although higher-end version of the Apple video editing software would likely offer a 15 to 20 percent price advantage over similar Avid software, surveys have shown that Avid Pro customers are less sensitive to price and more sensitive to brand and familiarity.



A recent study conducted by PiperJaffray of 161 post production professionals found that of those using an Avid system, only 6 percent were willing to consider switching to Apple in the next 12 months. Many others said they were not interested in switching to Apple, as Avid systems are what they've known for years. Several Avid Pro users also noted that "Avid is what professionals use, while Apple is what consumers and 'prosumers' use."



In his note to investors, Munster concluded that the Avid story is far from "squeaky clean," but said he believes it is getting closer to becoming a stable growing business again.



"While a high end version of Apple's Final Cut could be on par with Avid in many respects as far as functionality, Apple would be fighting a perception issue that pro editors have, as well as a loyalty to what they and the industry have been using for over a decade," he wrote.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 53
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    " We believe that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that if Apple holds a special event at NAB, it will be the venue for this announcement."





    I believe that there is a greater than 50% chance he may be right if what he says is true.

    Now where do I sign up to get the big bucks for my analyzing skills?
  • Reply 2 of 53
    wilcowilco Posts: 985member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post


    I believe that there is a greater than 50% chance he may be right if what he says is true.

    Now where do I sign up to get the big bucks for my analyzing skills?



    That joke never gets old.
  • Reply 3 of 53
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    What he says is true though. However newcomers to the business are usually more likely to consider other solutions than the accepted one than those already using it. Otherwise, the first solutions to any problem would be the only solutions, and none of the newer ones would ever have survived.



    If Apple does come out with competition, they have a chance, though it might take years.
  • Reply 4 of 53
    Brand loyalty? Well they are not called "Avid" users for nothing.



    In other news, here is the latest screen shot from the new leopard!



    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070315/...louded_leopard
  • Reply 5 of 53
    frankiefrankie Posts: 381member
    I agree with melgross.



    But ultimately Avid will have to lower prices and will lose alot of business. I doubt Avid Express and the mojo would even exist if FCP wasn't around. They'd still be making people buy their $25,000 starter system.



    As an editor that has used Avid and FCP for years, there is a perception that Avid is the king, but that will change. I personally like FCP way more after using them both. Avid requires remembering hundreds of key strokes and keyboard commands and is thus less-user friendy, (which FCP can mimick perfectly), is more expensive, and is overall just too finicky. Avid & Digidesign have owned the entertainment world for the last 20-30 years and I've always used their products, but better and cheaper things have and will come out and they'll loose some business. It will take time, but many people will eventually switch, and new ones that aren't 'stuck' in the Avid world will avoid them.
  • Reply 6 of 53
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wilco View Post


    That joke never gets old.



    It certainly doesn't have the legs that "Zune is brown like poo!!!!!1!!" did.
  • Reply 7 of 53
    This is a parallel situation to what happened with the music industry. When the tools of the trade went digital, every major studio on earth invested in Pro Tools, because it was the most powerful system at the time. Of course, that required a huge investment in special hardware, because the computers of the day weren't powerful enough to handle the processing in software.



    Now that computers have caught up, and most of that extra hardware is no longer needed, cheaper and better solutions (Logic, Cubase, etc.) have come along. But the studio is slow to make the switch, because it's already invested so much money in Pro Tools. And the people working in the studios don't want to swich, either. When all of your experience and training is on one system, you're not going to push to make a switch, thus making all of your knowledge and experience irrelevant.



    What's happening now, finally, is that musicians are recording their own works at home, on cheaper systems, saving themselves the high cost of studio time. Thus, the cheaper software solutions gain popularity through the independent movement. I suspect the same will happen for Final Cut, if they release a higher-end version that's significantly cheaper than Avid.
  • Reply 8 of 53
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Investment research firm PiperJaffray on Thursday cautioned shareholders of video production firm Avid Technology, Inc. that shares could experience some short-term volatility should Apple Inc. pull something from its sleeve at next month's NAB conference.



    Sr. Analyst Gene Munster, who maintains an outperform rating on shares of Avid, told investors that the "talk on the Street" is that Apple is planning an event for April 15th at the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) conference in Las Vegas, Nevd.



    "At last year's NAB, expectations were that Apple would announce a high end version of Final Cut, but this did not materialize," he said." We believe that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that if Apple holds a special event at NAB, it will be the venue for this announcement."



    Munster in a note to investors acknowledged that there is likely to be concern over what Apple may be holding, but said he does not believe a higher end version of Apple's Final Cut would end up significantly impacting Avid's pro post production business.



    "Don't expect Avid Pro users to flock to Apple if a high-end version of Final Cut is announced," the analyst wrote. Although higher-end version of the Apple video editing software would likely offer a 15 to 20 percent price advantage over similar Avid software, surveys have shown that Avid Pro customers are less sensitive to price and more sensitive to brand and familiarity.



    A recent study conducted by PiperJaffray of 161 post production professionals found that of those using an Avid system, only 6 percent were willing to consider switching to Apple in the next 12 months. Many others said they were not interested in switching to Apple, as Avid systems what they've known for years. Several Avid Pro users also noted that "Avid is what professionals use, while Apple is what consumers and 'prosumers' use."



    In his note to investors, Munster concluded that the Avid story is far from "squeaky clean," but said he believes it is getting closer to becoming a stable growing business again.



    "While a high end version of Apple's Final Cut could be on par with Avid in many respects as far as functionality, Apple would be fighting a perception issue that pro editors have, as well as a loyalty to what they and the industry have been using for over a decade," he wrote.



    Use some of that cash and buy Avid
  • Reply 9 of 53
    vinney57vinney57 Posts: 1,162member
    After spending $100,000's over the years nobody is going tell these people that they can get the same thing for $10,000. No siree. That's not how you cover your ass in a business.



    FCP outsells Avid by a margin. Its only the larger houses that can afford and appreciate the higher performance and integration that Avid systems can give them. Apple are not specifically targeting these people; rather they are creating the sort of integrated solutions that their present customers are growing into, thereby not losing them to the evil Avid.
  • Reply 10 of 53
    As someone mentioned above about music, Avid is part of an old paradigm where professional quality equipment cost tens of thousands of dollars. Editors ARE very faithful to programs that they've used for years, but as someone who in my 12 years in the business has worked across editing on film, A/B, Avid, M100, Premier, and now FCP; that FCP is definitely the easiest and most flexible system out there, and has come a long way in it's relatively short period of time. And is only getting better...



    People who say Avid is for Pro's and FCP is for "prosumers" is just silly... Tell that to David Fincher who just edited ZODIAC on FCP.
  • Reply 11 of 53
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 11thIndian View Post


    As someone mentioned above about music, Avid is part of an old paradigm where professional quality equipment cost tens of thousands of dollars. Editors ARE very faithful to programs that they've used for years, but as someone who in my 12 years in the business has worked across editing on film, A/B, Avid, M100, Premier, and now FCP; that FCP is definitely the easiest and most flexible system out there, and has come a long way in it's relatively short period of time. And is only getting better...



    People who say Avid is for Pro's and FCP is for "prosumers" is just silly... Tell that to David Fincher who just edited ZODIAC on FCP.



    One of the excuses for this expensive equipement such as the Flames, Avids, etc, was that a personal computer simply couldn't keep up with requirements in a commercial editing enviornment. Realtime being the main reason.



    With new machines coming out with dual 4 core chips, 32 GB of RAM and endless high speed RAIDs, that will no longer be a viable excuse.
  • Reply 12 of 53
    jasonfjjasonfj Posts: 567member
    I've been working with various networks and design houses in both the US and UK over the last 15 years, and have noticed a clear shift towards FCP. Companies that once outsourced to post houses can now buy 3 or 4 FCP systems for the price of 1 Avid and hire good freelancers to operate, as well as training up staff. The UK is slower to move, but in the US I haven't seen an Avid since 2004.



    Time was 15 years ago the only way to train up as an editor was after hours at a post house, or pay big money for a course - and Avid was the only option. As Frankie said, when you've spent 15 years working on one system why would you want to learn something new. But the kids coming out of college now are far more likely to have access to FCP than Avid - either at college or on their home machine - so it's only a matter of time before the balance shiftsand the old school makes way.
  • Reply 13 of 53
    I don't get it though... I had a client of mine ask me to come into her office and work on Premier Pro. I had never touched premier before that, and was currently working on FCP. I was able to pick up the basics in around 10 minutes, and more advanced functionality in half a day. The truth is there is very little separating the various apps from purely cutting perspective, they all work the same way, just with different keys!



    FCP has more functionality at a lower price!
  • Reply 14 of 53
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 11thIndian View Post


    I don't get it though... I had a client of mine ask me to come into her office and work on Premier Pro. I had never touched premier before that, and was currently working on FCP. I was able to pick up the basics in around 10 minutes, and more advanced functionality in half a day. The truth is there is very little separating the various apps from purely cutting perspective, they all work the same way, just with different keys!



    FCP has more functionality at a lower price!



    There are probably several people that worked on both FCP and Premiere software, that's probably part of why it was so easy to adapt. Not only did both programs originate from Macromedia, the lead software architect worked on Premiere at Adobe, and later, on FCP at Apple.
  • Reply 15 of 53
    'Real' Avid doesn't run on a laptop, right? I realize we won't have 8-core Xeon performance on laptops for 2-3 years, but that's not too far away.
  • Reply 16 of 53
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 11thIndian View Post


    People who say Avid is for Pro's and FCP is for "prosumers" is just silly... Tell that to David Fincher who just edited ZODIAC on FCP.



    There are quite a few movies cut on FCP now. It's becoming very popular in the TV broadcast arena as well, I think the BBC has committed to switching all their systems.



    Last I recall, there are advantages to using Avid products, but it's getting harder to justify as time goes on.



    I know one person that works at a TV station and has Avid that's already paid for, but on occasion, he still takes the work to his own small business office to use his own copy of FCP.
  • Reply 17 of 53
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gregmightdothat View Post


    It certainly doesn't have the legs that "Zune is brown like poo!!!!!1!!" did.



    I miss that..... hey, wilco..... c'mon...
  • Reply 18 of 53
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,419member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    There are probably several people that worked on both FCP and Premiere software, that's probably part of why it was so easy to adapt. Not only did both programs originate from Macromedia, the lead software architect worked on Premiere at Adobe, and later, on FCP at Apple.



    Randy Ubilos. Now a Distinguished Engineer. Here's a good article on the birth of FCP



    http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM...842A41BD1.html



    Avid/Digidesign certainly has room for fear. There are a lot of religious Avid fans but Final Cut Pro is keeping many people happy. The suite really hasn't had a significant feature upgrade in two years as Apple had to work hard to get in Universal.



    I'm expecting HUGE advances at NAB this year. I think the features in Leopard will enable so many new features or improvements in the Final Cut Suite I'm just excited that we're less than a month away. Finally. Avid certainly has to be worried in the last year Apple has aquired GPU accelerated Final Touch and Artbox asset managment.



    I suspect that XSAN will be heavily updated and bundled in a higher end version.



    I'm just a newbie though but hopefully in 2008 I can start working on a Level 1 certification for Final Cut Pro. I'm thrilled that Apple has worked so hard to make Macintosh the platform for affordable audio and video production.



    Kind of OT but here's hoping that Musikmesse gives us a Logic Pro 8 with a new spanking UI ..lots of updates (Delay Compensation everwhere and sample accurate editing) and finally peer level status in a Final Cut Studio workflow with proper roundtripping. Soundtrack Pro is nice for Video people who want to add easy audio but Logic Pro 8 is the beast that people need when it's time to make the score count.
  • Reply 19 of 53
    I have been using FCP since film school back in 2000, and recently had to learn AVID for a job. Not only was it a huge pain to even find a place that taught AVID, but it was VERY expensive. I have been using AVID systems for the last couple years, and I must say that from a creative cutting standpoint, AVID has nothing on FCP, and ultimatly, it's not about the program, but the Editor's ability to tell a story. FCP seems so much more organic than AVID, as well as its superior integration with other software. AVID users have this arrogance about their systems, but when are they going to learn that it's strictly business, not personal. Walter Murch has edited 3 films on FCP and is not turning back. The reality is that most of the new generation will be learing FCP, not AVID.
  • Reply 20 of 53
    hey guys,



    i bought my fcp studio 5.1 a couple months ago - now, how much you think ill have to pay for a regular fcp 6 update? (not the rumoured extreme version)



    i hope ill get away with 200 euros/dollars or so? naive?
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