AT&T not planning to subsidize iPhone?

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  • Reply 61 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    But this is where I'm confused. This quote from the report







    indicates there is a 'subsidy' to Apple, its just not paid up front. In the total scheme this is still a subsidy in my thinking.



    Revenue sharing is not what we are talking about.



    We are talking about a subsidy to CUSTOMERS who sign up, and buy the phone.
  • Reply 62 of 116
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Well Apple will have to change there outlook if they want to go mass market because Cingular is the only one that would agree to this deal, they were told to go pound sand by Verizon.



    I think Apple is using the carriers against one another, in the same way they are using the major music labels against one another in a different, yet similar in some ways, battle over contract terms.



    The idea is likely that the iPhone will be such a success for ATT, both in terms of attracting the most profitable (read, high end & data) customers and in being a flagship product that gets people into the ATT stores (to be sold on other products even if they can't afford the iPhone) that Verizon will eventually buckle and give Apple something close to what it wants in contract terms.



    I don't know how well that'll work, because VZW is a pretty conservative, 'business fundamentals' kind of company. But if the iPhone ends up being a nice strong cudgel for ATT to beat Verizon about the head and shoulders with, Verizon will likely have to do a deal eventually. I just hope Apple isn't too intransigent in their negotiations, thus delaying a deal... VZW definitely has a better network and customer service overall compared to ATT, and is perhaps the one US network that truly complements the quality of the iPhone.



    Verizon may end up needing Apple, but Apple needs Verizon perhaps more than it realizes as well.



    .
  • Reply 63 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    Let's check these things out first. The unlimited data plan at sprint is $39.99/month for two year contract.



    No. I pay $15 a month. That's a different plan altogether.
  • Reply 64 of 116
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpinDrift View Post


    I don't see service providers offering lower monthly call charges, but I do see Apple imposing some kind of inclusive data allowance. Apple will want their users to be able to get full use out of the iPhone from the start.



    What would be really smart is if ATT/Apple offered something like 60 days of data, FREE, up front. The iPhone is, after all, a 'breakthrough Internet device', and if you let people use it as such, they're likely to become hooked and become long-term, paying data plan customers... something that's been a huge challenge to attract for the wireless industry as a whole.



    Of course, the user experience here would be better if the iPhone was 3G. \



    Quote:

    I really don't understand why some people say that they are staying clear of the gen 1 iPhone. I replace my phone every year, sometimes more, so if a second gen iPhone comes out 12 months later then I'll upgrade. I would rather have the early technology and enjoy it than hold out for a 3.2 mega pixel camera which I won't use any more than the current offering. Granted I live in the UK, so in reality my phone will quite likely be a 3G gen 2 handset anyway by the time we get it at the end of the year!



    I think the iPhone's sheer expense prevents many people from thinkin' in 'oh, I'll get the gen 1 one, and then just get the gen 2 one when it comes out' -type terms.



    Some of it is also pretty legit... no 3G on a phone with the iPhone's pricing and internet functionality is pretty disappointing, even if it is perhaps more ATT's fault than Apple's (ATT's EDGE coverage is great, but their 3G coverage is still 'getting there').



    .
  • Reply 65 of 116
    physguyphysguy Posts: 920member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    No. I pay $15 a month. That's a different plan altogether.



    Where do I find that? For unlimited Data I only find this $40/month?
  • Reply 66 of 116
    physguyphysguy Posts: 920member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Revenue sharing is not what we are talking about.



    We are talking about a subsidy to CUSTOMERS who sign up, and buy the phone.



    Sorry, guess I wasn't clear. If Apple is receiving money from AT&T then AT&T may still be subsidizing the phone, i.e. the 'unlocked' price would be even higher than the $500-$600 being proposed. We can't know since the 'unlocked' price is not being revealed.



    Said another way, since there are payments from AT&T to Apple the $500-$600 price may represent a subsidized price.
  • Reply 67 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    So are you saying its a good idea to market to the smallest demographic? Thats like nvidia trying to market the 8800 card for high level pc gaming when you could by an entire ps3 for the same price as a video card.



    Apple is interested in profits. So, if the demographic will give you the greatest profit, then yes, by all means, sell to a smaller audience.



    There is also the value of building up a brand name. That doesn't happen by coming out with cheaper products at first.



    First you have to sell to the top of the market, and get a high quality reputation. Them, if you do it carefully, you can move down-market with the product line.



    But, it must be done slowly, and carefully.



    If you take a look at other companies, you will see that it is exactly how they operate. It doesn't matter what industry they are in.



    Moto failed to understand that. They were too eager to re-gain marketshare.



    If you start out with a cheaper product, it's difficult to get the consumer to take a more expensive product from you seriously. The cheaper product will always be associated with the brand.



    It's like Hyundai coming out with a high end car. But, with both Mercedes and BMW coming out with cheaper cars, the situation is reversed.



    You look at a luxury Hyundai as an expensive car from a manufacturer of cheap cars. But, you look at the cheaper cars from Mercedes and BMW as less expensive versions of their expensive models.



    It's attitudinal marketing. It took both Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers a couple of decades before the American and European consumer accepted them as high quality manufacturers.



    Apple doesn't have much time with the products they make, because the electronics industry has much shorter acceptance timescales.



    They have to establish their brand almost immediately.



    That's what they are doing. It's what they did with the iPod.



    Next year, they should also have less expensive models out, and improve their top line phones as well. That way they maintain their brand image while allowing people who covet their expensive models, but who can't afford, or who won't spend that much, to buy a less expensive version.



    I see no problem here.



    In fact, the announcement that there will be no subsidy gives the brand a boost, because Apple is saying to people that their phone is so good, that it's worth the money.



    Remember, Apple is only going for a 1% marketshare?for now.



    Unlike computers, where the OS is a wall in front of people wanting to make a move to Apple's products, the OS here is neither positive or negative.



    A phone doesn't have that barrier. The prices for phone software are low. If Apple does allow third party software, as Jobs pretty much said that they would, then developers will flock to the phone quickly, even if Apple puts itself between them and the user. A community will build up quickly.



    I agree with what Apple is doing here, as long as they follow through properly, and from how they handled the iPod and iTunes, I have confidence that they will do so here as well.
  • Reply 68 of 116
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Very well said, Mel.



    .
  • Reply 69 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    Where do I find that? For unlimited Data I only find this $40/month?



    Perhaps we are talking about different types of data. A PCS Vision Pack is $15 a month. That is unlimited email and IM, unlimited web access, unlimited picture mail, etc.
  • Reply 70 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    Sorry, guess I wasn't clear. If Apple is receiving money from AT&T then AT&T may still be subsidizing the phone, i.e. the 'unlocked' price would be even higher than the $500-$600 being proposed. We can't know since the 'unlocked' price is not being revealed.



    Said another way, since there are payments from AT&T to Apple the $500-$600 price may represent a subsidized price.



    It still wouldn't matter, as the $500 to $600 is the price people see, and therfore, the one that people relate to.



    There is nothing more than speculation, at this time, that Apple is receiving anything from Cingular.
  • Reply 71 of 116
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,599member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Very well said, Mel.



    .



    Thank you.
  • Reply 72 of 116
    macgregormacgregor Posts: 1,434member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    There is definitely a lot of truth to that. Subsidies are never 'free', they're simply paid off over the life of the contract.



    The RAZR was a huge sales hit for Motorola throughout its entire lifespan, until recently (now that it's stopped being 'cool' to have one/everyone has one/many other phone makers now offer thin phones).



    RAZR margins decline



    "Interest in the RAZR remains good," Kort adds, "but profit margins on the RAZR line have substantially declined." Motorola is now charging "a small fraction" of the $500 original price for RAZRs at launch.




    http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=114953 (01/07)



    .



    Because the RAZR is only about Hardware.

    The iPhone is about Hardware and Software and as long as the processors in it are good and the quality is great, the software can update the thing for the next decade.



    All of you oldsters out there remember when you bought a new telephone about as often as you bought a new house?!?!



    I'd pay $500 for a phone that would be cool and work well for 5 years and that had its own internal upgrade cycle. With a good clear cover on it, there is no reason you should need to buy an iPhone anymore often than you buy a laptop. This is the business model that AT&T doesn't get yet and why the contracts and such are hard to define.



    Now I sure don't know if the materials would really last that long, and I know the market is different now and everyone want to upgrade every year or two with almost every electronic device, and I'm sure software will increase in complexity to drive upgraded hardware requirements, but I think the forgotten issue here is that as Jobs said in his keynote, this thing can last a long time and they can "change the buttons!"



    The RAZR is not the right comparison or analogy. This will be something new once it gets out in the open air for a year or two.
  • Reply 73 of 116
    maccentricmaccentric Posts: 263member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    I think you have logic backward wrt lower rate. Cingular is SPENDING nothing on the iPhone as opposed to paying motorola or others for the privilege of giving away their phones. This is why you have to pay tax on the list price, not the final price. Since Cingular/AT&T is SAVING money by offering the iPhone they COULD lower the plan price. No reason they can't have a specific plan for the iPhone. Don't know if they will but it would make sense to do so.





    I believe that the amount that AT&T "saves" from not subsidizing the phone will go to Apple due to their agreement that Apple gets a percentage of the monthly service. So I wouldn't count on the plan price being lowered.
  • Reply 74 of 116
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    Sorry, guess I wasn't clear. If Apple is receiving money from AT&T then AT&T may still be subsidizing the phone, i.e. the 'unlocked' price would be even higher than the $500-$600 being proposed. We can't know since the 'unlocked' price is not being revealed.



    Said another way, since there are payments from AT&T to Apple the $500-$600 price may represent a subsidized price.



    I see what you are getting at and I agree that AT&T is paying Apple a portion of the iPhone contracts, but it is not a "subsidized" payment.



    The way it works with subsidized cellphones is simple. You sign a contract, purchase (or get for free) a phone, and the carrier pays the hardware manufacture the amount described in the contract for the sale of the phone. The type of services or length of time the hardware is in use does not affect the amount paid to the manufacturer.



    The problem with this model is obvious. Manufacturers are competing to sell you cheaper and cheaper phones. Since the manufacturer no longer has a revenue stream it needs to sell you another phone as soon as it can. This can lead to hardware that isn't designed to be rugged or long lasting.



    If AT&T were paying Apple directly for the difference in the hardware price, then it would subsidized. They said they aren't, and I believe them. But it's obvious the iPhone's retail value is more than $500 and that Apple will be making a profit somewhere.



    So what scenario allows Apple to make a profit without technically subsidizing the hardware?



    The one I can think of allows Apple to make an even greater profit than it ever could by following the current carrier/manufacturer paradigm:
    Apple purposely decides to break even on selling the iPhone hardware. AT&T agrees pay Apple nothing for each hardware sale and to charge wholesale prices for the iPhone. Apple then receive a portion of each month's subscription dues.



    This is good for the consumer as Apple's profits no longer come from trying to sell us new phones every 6 months, but from being committed to constantly upgrading the iPhone's software and making AT&T's interactive network options (eg: Visual Voicemail) more viable and useful for the consumer. This also means that Apple has no reason to hold back on making the iPhone most durable, advanced and longest lasting phone it can. In fact, Apple's only concern is to make the phone and it's services as good as possible as a customer disenchanted with the iPhones reliability is the most likely reason they will permanently lose a customer.
  • Reply 75 of 116
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacGregor View Post


    Because the RAZR is only about Hardware.

    The iPhone is about Hardware and Software and as long as the processors in it are good and the quality is great, the software can update the thing for the next decade.



    That's an extremely good point. However, I do not know if its possible to update the iPhone from 2.5G (EDGE) to 3G, by just updating the software. And of course, storage capacity isn't getting updated by software.



    Quote:

    All of you oldsters out there remember when you bought a new telephone about as often as you bought a new house?!?!



    I'd pay $500 for a phone that would be cool and work well for 5 years and that had its own internal upgrade cycle. With a good clear cover on it, there is no reason you should need to buy an iPhone anymore often than you buy a laptop. This is the business model that AT&T doesn't get yet and why the contracts and such are hard to define.



    Oh, ATT and the other wireless carriers 'get it'... they just would prefer to keep you locked down in a contract, and the way to do that is to subidize phones. The subsidy is the bait, the contract is the hook. Customer bites down on the 'free' or cheap phone, and is reeled in for the next 2 years.



    The iPhone is an even better hook, because it may not be subsidized to the consumer at all, yet still require a contract. That's like a hook with no bait on it. Well, the bait is how awesome the iPhone is, but still.



    Quote:

    Now I sure don't know if the materials would really last that long



    Cellphones, as built by most major handset makers these days, do not last 5 years in most cases, sad to say.



    Quote:

    The RAZR is not the right comparison or analogy. This will be something new once it gets out in the open air for a year or two.



    Great point. The question is, will ATT and Apple want to sell it in the way you envision? My guess is, ATT at least, will not. They, like most US carriers, like the traditional model, with its customer contract lock-in.



    Of course, if Apple had other ideas, they might be able to change the game, in the same sort of way that they are for DRM-free tracks in the music industry. But with DRM-free, there was something in it for Apple. What's in it for Apple to sell you an iPhone that lasts 5 years? I'm not saying there isn't anything, but I'd be curious to hear what other people have to say about this.



    .
  • Reply 76 of 116
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacGregor View Post


    The iPhone is about Hardware and Software...



    ... and new interactive services.
  • Reply 77 of 116
    maccentricmaccentric Posts: 263member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Perhaps we are talking about different types of data. A PCS Vision Pack is $15 a month. That is unlimited email and IM, unlimited web access, unlimited picture mail, etc.



    I think physguy is looking at the data plans for the PCMCIA mobile broadband cards.



  • Reply 78 of 116
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    So what scenario allows Apple to make a profit without technically subsidizing the hardware?



    The one I can think of allows Apple to make an even greater profit than it ever could by following the current carrier/manufacturer paradigm:
    Apple purposely decides to break even on selling the iPhone hardware. AT&T agrees pay Apple nothing for each hardware sale and to charge wholesale prices for the iPhone. Apple then receive a portion of each month's subscription dues.



    This is good for the consumer as Apple's profits no longer come from trying to sell us new phones every 6 months, but from being committed to constantly upgrading the iPhone's software and making AT&T's interactive network options (eg: Visual Voicemail) more viable and useful for the consumer. This also means that Apple has no reason to hold back on making the iPhone most durable, advanced and longest lasting phone it can. In fact, Apple's only concern is to make the phone and it's services as good as possible as a customer disenchanted with the iPhones reliability is the most likely reason they will permanently lose a customer.



    If that is what Apple is doing, it is genius (though I'd think ATT still technically passes on to Apple the customers iPhone purchase dollars as the 'break-even' price for the hardware).



    Totally upends the current (rather crappy) industry model, would help out ATT immensely by reducing customer churn (which is a huge cost to wireless carriers), and builds Apple's brand to high heaven. The system's incentives are all towards a better user experience. Hope it's true.



    .
  • Reply 79 of 116
    rickagrickag Posts: 1,626member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I see some of the geniuses are out already.



    Look guys, stop trying to find ways that this phone will be subsidized. Apple said that it wouldn't be. It's about time that you accepted that, and stop trying to find ways around it.



    Agreed, and there is almost no chance the iPhone will be subsidized.



    But, on the other hand, if the carriers are subsidizing current phones, don't they have to make up the difference on their monthly plans/rates and commitments. So, because the iPhone is not going to be subsidized shouldn't the monthly plans/rates reflect this lack of subsidy, or at bare minimum not require a 2 year commitment.
  • Reply 80 of 116
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I see some of the geniuses are out already.



    Thanks for noticing me, I appreciate the compliment.
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