"Microsoft is Dead"

124

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 83
    slewisslewis Posts: 2,081member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Nintendo is not competing in the same market in as much as they hope that folks will buy their updated gamecube in addition to the two remaining top level consoles. The strategy is working from a combination of pricing and Sony stumbling on the PS3.



    It's not about individual game titles on the 360 and PS3 and not on the Wii but about the Wii being too underpowered for certain genres to the point where its games are not going to be any better than what could run on an XBox or PS2.



    As far as the "subject" Microsoft is nowhere near dead.



    Vinea



    As long as they are still competing for shelf space, publishers, and consumer dollars they are still competing in the same market. The power of the hardware is irrelevant as long as they are still competing.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iPeon View Post


    I'm not speaking from a brand recognition viewpoint, nor the amount of marking this product has, nor how popular it is. In other words, I'm not asking for opinions as to why Office should live or die nor as to why it's a good idea or bad idea to create a competitive product to Office. I'm speaking from a technical reality. How difficult is it, programing wise, to create apps that do what Word/Excel does?



    I gave you the reasons why it would be hard for Apple. Apple could theoretically hire a team of a few hundred software engineers straight out of school and hand over control of iWork to them, they just won't.



    The reason Apple hasn't released a spreadsheet app yet is because they haven't even released iWork 07 yet. I have no doubt in my mind that they already have one ready and the only reason we haven't seen it yet is because they haven't released the new versions of iWork and iLife, likely because they are probably tied to Leopard.



    Sebastian
  • Reply 62 of 83
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slewis View Post


    As long as they are still competing for shelf space, publishers, and consumer dollars they are still competing in the same market. The power of the hardware is irrelevant as long as they are still competing.



    This is like saying that Subaru competes with Porsche and Ferrari because it also makes cars and competes for dealer space, aftermarket parts and consumer dollars.



    Even through the WRX is a world class rally car it doesn't because Subaru has no supercar in its lineup. If Subaru made a car like the Acrua NSX it would. Likewise, now that the NSX has been discontinued, Honda no longer competes with Porshe, Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc.



    The power of the hardware is certainly relevant. The WRC is a fast little car that's fun to drive. But there's an upper limit to what a 4 cyc engine can do. While the NSX's V6 was "anemic" later on, in 1990 it compared well against the Ferrari 348. Certainly the NSX fell short in the power department later so some folks don't place it in the supercar ranks.



    Quote:

    I gave you the reasons why it would be hard for Apple. Apple could theoretically hire a team of a few hundred software engineers straight out of school and hand over control of iWork to them, they just won't.



    The reason Apple hasn't released a spreadsheet app yet is because they haven't even released iWork 07 yet. I have no doubt in my mind that they already have one ready and the only reason we haven't seen it yet is because they haven't released the new versions of iWork and iLife, likely because they are probably tied to Leopard.



    Sebastian



    It wouldn't take a team of a few hundred coders. While OOo is 10M SLOC or whatever Apple already has AppleWorks, iWork, etc that it can leverage for an office suite.



    You didn't list any technical reasons which is why he re-asked the questions. There aren't any real technical reasons why Apple can't create a competing office package. Apple certainly knows how to manage large software with millions of SLOC. OSX is supposedly on the order of 80M SLOC.



    There are a number of possible non-technical reasons why it chooses not to.



    Vinea
  • Reply 63 of 83
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Oh, how I wish Apple would release a spreadsheet app in iWork. I bought MS office basically so I can use excel. Ocassionally someone will send me a word doc or a pp file but the only I app in office that I use from scratch is excel.
  • Reply 64 of 83
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    In 2002 Sony's game division was 30% of its profits (hampered by poundings in its movie division...this year is the opposite). In 2006 SCE generated $8.5B in sales. That's not miniscule.



    There's a reason that Sony and MS sank so much into the PS3 and 360 and why MS invested so much into breaking into the console market with the XBox.







    I doubt they are going to maintain constant revenues in OS and Office products...their top two revenue generators (their only two real profit generators).



    Wii is doing awesome and Nintendo getting a nice financial infusion. With Sony vulnerable they might decide to get back into the game and they certainly avoided Sega's fate. But MS also picked up a lot of ground on Sony this go around. More than folks might have anticipated.



    Vinea



    Quadruple Bollocks. V- man you just don't get it. MS ain't Sony and vice versa. MS is a software company (repeat that 100 times to yourself) , Sony is a hardware company. Every venture into hardware has been a disaster for MS, i.e. a money loser. See Zune, see XBOX.



    You also don't seem to want to look at MS revenues and markets either historically or looking forward. The game console market is never going to generate the revenues ,profits and profit margins of the software divisions. The game console business is a dopey diversion for MS and a stupid one to boot since that market is cut-throat competitive with companies who know how to do hardware, see Sony, see Nintendo. Pure Hubris and stupitity on MS part.. Zune was an aborted late attempt to compete with Ipod and we've seen the magnificant results in that mismanaged mangled venture.



    MS recent proposed $6 Bln acquistion of aQuantive makes a lot more sense despite the ridiculous price they payed for AQNT (kudos to those of us who bought AQNT after GOOG bought the industry leader DoubleClick) , 88 times forward earnings!!! What they got was a very slim chance in a multi billion $$$ game they were badly loosing to GOOG and YHOO. Aquantive's Atlas is a technology platform that enables advertisers and web site owners to deliver media and advertising content to web site visitors. From banner ads, to video ads, to search engine marketing, the Atlas platform does it all – and most importantly, it is a software/technology, Microsoft’s specialty. This is not surprising considering that historically, Microsoft has acquired many companies that owned rights to software and then took that newly acquired intellectual property and successfully used it.
  • Reply 65 of 83
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post


    Quadruple Bollocks. V- man you just don't get it. MS ain't Sony and vice versa. MS is a software company (repeat that 100 times to yourself) , Sony is a hardware company. Every venture into hardware has been a disaster for MS, i.e. a money loser. See Zune, see XBOX.



    Consoles make money on software. You could argue that MS should go the Sega way but owning the keys to the kingdom grants you the royalties...and control of the software infrastructure.



    Saying that the Zune is money loser is premature. Likewise XBox.



    MS is using the console as its entry into the entertainment space just as Apple is using AppleTV. Frankly games are the more compelling entry point and MS now has millions more Media Center Extenders (aka XBox 360) than Apple will have AppleTVs to couple to their Media Center PCs.



    MS is also providing IPTV software for some cable and internet companies.



    These three pieces (including Zune) are very software dependent. The hardware is the price of doing business as far as MS is concerned...so yes MS and Sony are very different companies but within the console segment the strategy is far more software revenue centric for both companies.



    MS's goal isn't just to make money with the XBox and Zune but to also control the software ecosystem for media. Convergence was so overused as a term that its now a laughable word but it will happen and it will change the home computing landscape.



    It's not a arena that MS or Apple could afford to ignore.



    Quote:

    You also don't seem to want to look at MS revenues and markets either historically or looking forward. The game console market is never going to generate the revenues ,profits and profit margins of the software divisions.



    Looking forward name one MS software division that wont be under revenue and profit pressure. Games are a SOFTWARE arena that MS can compete VERY effectively against Sony and Nintendo. One key element is development tools for the platforms to make games faster, cheaper and easier to build. Visual Studio and XNA is far superior to Sony's toolchain.



    This is where MS dominates Sony and where it has the potential to capture a significant portion of that $8.3B in revenue stream from Sony.



    Oh...and here's an idea for you...what if MS offers an Office 360 for students? With sufficient protection the 360's successor will never run OpenOffice or Linux. Yes, there will be cracks but most folks wont bother.



    And yes, the hypervisor crack on the 360 works but is patched so while there are periods of vulnerability on the 360 is seems reduced in comparison to the original XBox and XBox Live makes it much harder to live with a hacked 360 if you want any of those networked services.



    All software services by the by.



    Quote:

    The game console business is a dopey diversion for MS and a stupid one to boot since that market is cut-throat competitive with companies who know how to do hardware, see Sony, see Nintendo. Pure Hubris and stupitity on MS part.. Zune was an aborted late attempt to compete with Ipod and we've seen the magnificant results in that mismanaged mangled venture.



    Without controlling the hardware (or having an open platform) MS can't control the software and leverage its own strengths. And MS has shown it is capable of creating a decent console hardware platform in collaboration with hardware vendors. IBM and ATI did much of the heavy lifting.



    Zune is young yet. Really young. But again, MS needs an entry to that market to help control the software landscape.



    Quote:

    MS recent proposed $6 Bln acquistion of aQuantive makes a lot more sense despite the ridiculous price they payed for AQNT (kudos to those of us who bought AQNT after GOOG bought the industry leader DoubleClick) , 88 times forward earnings!!! What they got was a very slim chance in a multi billion $$$ game they were badly loosing to GOOG and YHOO.



    MS is large enough it invests in multiple multi-billion dollar games. The console market is an $8-10B market. One where the top two competitors have significant limitations that MS can exploit because ultimately its all about the software (games) and much of what it does in that space contributes to PC gaming (ie development of XNA, etc) as well.



    Vinea
  • Reply 66 of 83
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Vinea,



    You give us non sequitor blah,blah,blah.



    I give you numbers.



    First look at the NPD Group FY 2006 data for the $12.5 bln video gaming industry:



    http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4525&Itemid=2



    Not only is there fierce competition in the hardware arena, but clearly the software game publishing area is just as ferocious with the likes of Electronic Arts, Nintendo and Activision to name just a few.



    Once again, lets look at MS numbers from the last reporting quarter



    Entertainment and Devices: Revenue, $929 million, down 21 percent. Operating loss $315 million, compared with a $402 million loss in the same quarter last year.



    Lets look at what's happening now.



    http://www.thestreet.com/_htmlbtb/ne.../10357600.html



    So, MS continues to lose ground to its competitors after ongoing dismal numbers since the Xbox inception in 2005.



    This is the market you say MS is going dominate? Right.
  • Reply 67 of 83
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,834member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Nintendo is not competing in the same market in as much as they hope that folks will buy their updated gamecube in addition to the two remaining top level consoles. The strategy is working from a combination of pricing and Sony stumbling on the PS3.



    It's not about individual game titles on the 360 and PS3 and not on the Wii but about the Wii being too underpowered for certain genres to the point where its games are not going to be any better than what could run on an XBox or PS2.



    Vinea



    It is amazing that we are now in May and one still cannot find a Wii on the shelves here.

    Imagine what would have happened if they had given the console a proper name!



    Even if Nintendo can produce more by the summer or early fall, this Christmas season will be most interesting. All three consoles will once again go head to head without any artificial release dates.



    And if Nintendo introduces a solid Mario Kart for Wii, I think it's game over in the fight for dominance.
  • Reply 68 of 83
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post


    Vinea,



    You give us non sequitor blah,blah,blah.



    Really? You claim that the console market is hardware dominated. I disagreed. Then you show numbers from software sales where MS had the #3 title in 2006.



    Quote:

    I give you numbers.



    First look at the NPD Group FY 2006 data for the $12.5 bln video gaming industry:



    Yep...looking at it...Gears of War #3 title. Publisher: Microsoft Game Studios.



    Oh...and EA and Activision...yeah...you heard of this thing called royalties? This is what Sony, MS and Nintendo gets...and Sega no longer does. That's why you plunk down a boatload of money to develop hardware.



    Quote:

    Once again, lets look at MS numbers from the last reporting quarter



    Entertainment and Devices: Revenue, $929 million, down 21 percent. Operating loss $315 million, compared with a $402 million loss in the same quarter last year.



    Nice cherry picking from the slowest game quarter. Lets look at Q2 2007 which is the important quarter (you know...the one with that holiday...what was it called? Oh yeah...Christmas):



    Entertainment and Devices: $2.96B. 75% increase YoY ($1.68B in 2006).



    Quote:

    Lets look at what's happening now.



    http://www.thestreet.com/_htmlbtb/ne.../10357600.html



    So, MS continues to lose ground to its competitors after ongoing dismal numbers since the Xbox inception in 2005.



    This is the market you say MS is going dominate? Right.



    Dismal numbers? $2.96 BILLION in revenue...the same size as Client and Server & Tools for Q2 2007.



    Of course, large operating losses rather than profits. Sony's numbers aren't too rosy at the moment either but the reason companies are willing to lose money at the start of a console cycle is that they are profitable at the mid and end of the cycle. The original XBox losses were simply the ante to get into the console game. MS is a real player in that space now.



    MS claims profitability for entertainement and devices next year. I look at that with a somewhat skeptical eye but it is possible given Sony's stumble. But if they can make good money in 2009 and 2010 then the XBox gamble will have paid off in another profitable division with billions in revenue stream. At this stage the 360 is priced and position reasonably well vs the PS3.



    Vinea
  • Reply 69 of 83
    ipeonipeon Posts: 1,122member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    One of the remaining knock-off of Improv is Quantrix.



    http://www.quantrix.com/



    Thanks for the link. I like it. =)
  • Reply 70 of 83
    ipeonipeon Posts: 1,122member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slewis View Post


    I gave you the reasons why it would be hard for Apple.



    That wasn't my question.
  • Reply 71 of 83
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iPeon View Post


    Thanks for the link. I like it. =)



    Yah, if you've ever need to do complex excel spreadsheets with lots of formulas that are interrelated this is a great timesaver because invariably you go "Gee...if I could rearrange this thingabob here and see the relationship to that..."



    Vinea
  • Reply 72 of 83
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    ...Saying that the Zune is money loser is premature......Zune is young yet. Really young...



    Ummm.... Well I'm just speechless.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    ...Imagine what would have happened if they had given the console a proper name!...Even if Nintendo can produce more by the summer or early fall, this Christmas season will be most interesting. All three consoles will once again go head to head without any artificial release dates...And if Nintendo introduces a solid Mario Kart for Wii, I think it's game over in the fight for dominance.



    Mostly agreed, though I reckon *very clearly* Wii is on the strong upswing. By the end of the Christmas frenzy, assuming no major screw-ups, Wii will be kicking some serious ass seriously.
  • Reply 73 of 83
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Ummm.... Well I'm just speechless.



    Why? Zune is in its first incarnation and sure its losing money for MS at the moment. But its important for them to have in their lineup and it will get better (not that that will be TOO hard). Apple doesn't have much to fear but it is a growth market still and MS can capture more volume even if they maintain their current market share.



    Likely though the Zune will take share from other MP3 players and I see Zune with a 50-50 shot at morphing into a gaming handheld at some point soonish to compete with the PSP. If MS puts an ATI Imageon into the Zune it would be a reasonably capable handheld.



    This is another SOFTWARE area that MS could do well with. Currently the Imageon uses OpenGL but given that the Imageon supports unified shader then XNA support shouldn't be too hard.



    MS doesn't have THAT much interest in going toe to toe against the iPod except to insure it has a music portal and an entry into social networking communities to support their entertainment agenda.



    Which is clearly XBox/MPC/Xbox Live centric but requires a mobile component to be competitive vs Sony and Apple. Apple has its own weaknesses vs MS in this arena...Xbox trumps AppleTV for the moment. And while iTunes is superior to XBox Live its not quite the same thing.



    Vinea
  • Reply 74 of 83
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Interesting. Well certainly the above points out, at least, the FEAR of Microsoft is long dead now. Google and Apple (and Nintendo) don't need to look over their shoulders too much... Personally, I just pity da fools who get involved in this Zune/Zune-handheld-gaming/etc. rubbish... though I do see your scenario as possible approaches Microsoft might take.
  • Reply 75 of 83
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    One thing's for sure, MS can't kill competition anymore just with FUD. They seem to be trying that with Linux and I read over at Macworld that some Linux members WANT MS to sue them. How about that.



    From now on they'll have to do it the old fashioned way, superior products.
  • Reply 76 of 83
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    MS .... superior products.



    Now that's an oxymoron these days ...I guess .Net and Visual Studio excepted.
  • Reply 77 of 83
    meh 2meh 2 Posts: 149member
    Getting back to the "MicroSoft is dead" theme, does it bother anyone that MicroSoft feels comfortable responding to customers in the manner reposed in this video (despite the posture of humorour license or the dating of this particular piece). It just seems as though there is a most unsettling feeling that I get from my infrequent sojourns into the MicroSoft culture that theirs is "all that" - almost a type of disdain for all who would deign to criticize MicroSoft.



    <http://wm.microsoft.com/ms/officeonline/crabby/ms_doesnt_care_300k.wmv>;
  • Reply 78 of 83
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member


    All I can say to that video is WHAT THE HELL ???!!

    How appropriate that it is in wmv anyways.
  • Reply 79 of 83
    vinea I think you are missing several very important points,



    1) It doesn't matter if you think that Wii, Xbox 360 and the PS3 are theoretically competing in the same market or not due to technological limitations. The fact is, they're in the same aisle at Wal-Mart, and the more successful console will get more shelf space.



    Competition: the act of competing; rivalry for supremacy, a prize



    All the consoles are competing for the prize of shelf space, therefore they are in competition with each other. If this isn't an indication of a common market between all three consoles, I don't know what is. Comparing them to cars is like comparing apples to oranges. A video game console is a significantly smaller investment. Anyone who has money to burn on a Wii can simply wait a few paychecks and have money to burn on a 360 or PS3. The difference is in terms of hundreds of dollars as opposed to tens of thousands.



    Remember, the N64 was considered to be in the same market as PS1 despite the fact that the N64 had significantly more horsepower.



    2) I don't think you realize just how much Nintendo has been dominating in hardware and software sales over the last few months. Like, there is a significant chance of complete market domination this generation by Nintendo, which I actually think is a bad thing for the market as a whole, but there is a chance of it happening none the less.



    The fact that the next Dragon Quest game is exclusive to the DS will only add fuel to the fire. This is a game series that is so popular that the Japanese government has passed a ruling that new games in the series cannot be released on schooldays because too many children skip school to buy it. DS and Wii are well on their way to establishing their position at the top of the heap this generation.



    Even during the the N64 days, Nintendo was obliterating the competition in terms of how much actual money they were raking in, can you imagine what their profits are like now?



    3) Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo turns a profit on hardware. If people start buying up 360s by the truckload, but each one of those people only buy one third party game, MS will be lucky to break even. If the same situation happened over at Nintendo, Nintendo would still turn a significant profit on hardware sales.



    4) Console generation has nothing to do with horsepower, it has to do with the year the console is released and who it's primary competitors are at the time. The Wii primarily competes with the Xbox 360 and PS3, therefore it is a part of the same generation. Again, I point to the N64/PS1 example, N64 doubled PS1 in terms of raw horsepower, but they were considered to be in the same generation because of the time frame.



    5) You have to ask youself, when the PS3 and Xbox 360 hit their stride in terms of graphic capability, are most people going to give a rat's ass? Once the initial "wow" factor dies off, people are going to realize that a lot of games for PS3 and 360 are too bloated to be any fun. This is the reason the market was in danger of crashing again. The market can't expand if games are too complicated for people to get into. This is how Nintendo is going about cornering the video game market, simple games that anyone can get in to. It's essentially like hitting a great big reset button in terms of market demographics.





    On topic: While they may not be feared anymore, Microsoft are far from dead. You can't have your software installed on 90% of the hardware sold in the most important electronics industry in the world and be considered dead. Most people don't even know what Linux is. You need to remember too, that even if things move away from the desktop, Microsoft still has a fairly strong internet presence. Gmail isn't even close to touching Hotmail in terms of users. They're not untouchable, but it's going to be several years before anyone even has a chance at stealing Microsoft's crown.
  • Reply 80 of 83
    This thread makes me chuckle.



    People saying that M$ is dead, and their reasoning is bringing up a gaming console; than either they are



    1) very young

    2) don't understand the depths of M$ in corporate IT.



    If you are going to argue #2. Do not bring up Office or desktop OS. That game is over.



    Lets talk about the real cash cow because at the end of the day Office and the OS are just a gimmee. No CIO gives three poops about that baby stuff. That's stuff for mommy and daddy to worry about when they buy a lappy from Best Buy.
Sign In or Register to comment.