Apple's June quarter iPod shipments tracking near estimates

Posted:
in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited January 2014
An analysis of April unit data from market research firm NPD leads researchers at PiperJaffray to believe that iPod shipments for Apple's June quarter could come in around 9.5 million units, slightly below Street estimates of 9.8 million units.



In his second Apple-related report of the day, analyst Gene Munster noted that the 9.5 million unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data.



"When the second month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this data point with other information," he told clients.



For Apple's June quarter, the analyst isn't expecting iPhone sales to have a material impact on financials, as the device is likely to launch with only a matter of days left in the quarter. However, he bills the company's upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference as a "significant wildcard in the quarter," which could draw positive reactions from investors.



As part of the annual Apple developer gathering, Munster said he's prepared for a full-featured demonstration of Leopard, including a demo of how Leopard will integrate Windows interoperability. He's also expecting new MacBook Pros and the possibility of redesigned iMacs.



Come the September quarter, the analyst said shares of Cupertino-based Apple should start to reflect the benefits of initial iPhone numbers, new iPods for the holiday season, Mac market share gains, and strong back-to-school sales.



"The first full quarter of iPhone numbers will be reported with the September 2007 earnings," he informed clients. "Also, we expect Apple to launch new widescreen iPods with the iPhone's multi-touch technology at a price-point below the iPhone's $499 (likely $399)."



Munster added that Apple may also update its miniature iPod shuffle for the holiday shopping season, as he believe the company's emphasis on the lower-cost players released in September 2006 significantly impacted its December 2006 quarter.



"We also expect further worldwide Mac market share gains toward 3.0 percent (up from 2.6 percent in [the first quarter of 2007)," he continued. "These gains should be driven by strong education and back-to-school sales in the quarter, and the industry trend toward laptops."



According to IDC data, Apple currently holds a higher U.S. market share in the notebook category (4.8 percent) than in the overall PC market (3.7 percent).

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 12
    wallywally Posts: 211member
    cool.
  • Reply 2 of 12
    rot'napplerot'napple Posts: 1,839member
    I wonder what the Zune's June marketshare is, if Apple's June is meeting expectations, does that mean the Zune is cannibalizing other PC music players or is Apple top dog, the other PC music digital players have their market share and then the Zune falls behind them?



    Some "ipodkillerwannabe"!
  • Reply 3 of 12
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,998member
    I'm not so sure of those final numbers about marketshare.



    I've now read that Apple's US marketshare this quarter is anywhere from 5.6% to 6.3%, with portable marketshare from between 10% and 12%. Now, this article pegs it at a low 3.7%, with portable marketshare of 4.8%. Where does that come from?
  • Reply 4 of 12
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,998member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    I wonder what the Zune's June marketshare is, if Apple's June is meeting expectations, does that mean the Zune is cannibalizing other PC music players or is Apple top dog, the other PC music digital players have their market share and then the Zune falls behind them?



    Some "ipodkillerwannabe"!



    Sandisk seems to be eating into Apple's marketshare with around 9%. The Zune seems to be coming in at about 2.6%. Apple's is down to a bit over 68%.
  • Reply 5 of 12
    Does anyone think M$ will be crowing about selling 1 million Zunes in june? after a WHOLE year on sale, while Apple manage to push about 10 times that in ONE quarter.



    Chair throwing time
  • Reply 6 of 12
    louzerlouzer Posts: 1,054member
    What is it with everyone's seemingly endless love-affair with the Zune? Seems like an iPod story can't go by without everyone slamming the device. Hey, it sucks. We get it. Can we move on now??? Its almost like you have to keep bashing it for fear people will realize its good or something.
  • Reply 7 of 12
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Maybe it's just positive reinforcement (in reverse).
  • Reply 8 of 12
    I'm not sure that it's a good idea to extrapolate the quarter from April sales. April retail sales across the entire retail arena were reportedly beaten down by the combination of an unusually cold April and an unusally early Easter which took the wind out of consumers.



    May retail numbers have thus far reportedly rebounded much higher. So I'd kind of expect to see something similar in iPod sales (while I suspect that Amazon and the online Apple store sell quite a few units, I think iPods are now in so many physical stores that weather has likely become an influencer).



    So if we're talking about a shortfall of 9.5 versus 9.8 million, I'm thinking that difference might get swallowed back up in May...'cause assuming a relatively linear distribution, we're effectively talking about being 100k units light in April...which just requires us to be 100k units heavy in May.



    reinharden
  • Reply 9 of 12
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,185member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Louzer View Post


    What is it with everyone's seemingly endless love-affair with the Zune? Seems like an iPod story can't go by without everyone slamming the device. Hey, it sucks. We get it. Can we move on now??? Its almost like you have to keep bashing it for fear people will realize its good or something.



    Aw c'mon......, because it's fun to beat up on a world-beating, arrogant, cash-rich, idea-less, copycat behemoth with a chair-throwing CEO that is desperately trying to convince the world, "I can be/will be/wannabe cool too," and failing miserably at it.



    It's priceless.



    You don't see people making fun of the many smaller competitors who have tried and not succeeded.
  • Reply 10 of 12
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,998member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    Does anyone think M$ will be crowing about selling 1 million Zunes in june? after a WHOLE year on sale, while Apple manage to push about 10 times that in ONE quarter.



    Chair throwing time



    It will have been on sale for six months.



    But, selling a total of one million units in six months is nothing to crow about.



    They didn't pick a number until after it had been on sale for over a month. By then, they had an idea how it was selling. They deliberately picked a very low number so that it would be difficult to not make that number. Then they could say that they beat their estimates.
  • Reply 11 of 12
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,949member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Louzer View Post


    What is it with everyone's seemingly endless love-affair with the Zune? Seems like an iPod story can't go by without everyone slamming the device.



    I agree, except how is that a love affair?
  • Reply 12 of 12
    louzerlouzer Posts: 1,054member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    I agree, except how is that a love affair?



    I don't know. It seems some people are over-vociferous about the Zune, to the point you'd have to wonder whether they're actually in love with it. The whole "thou protests too much" argument. The same way people say that Windows users bash macs because they really want one.
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