Now here's a poster with some major juice. Nice call on Apple last year. It's great that you remind us all of your optimism from last year. For all the talk of a bubble upon the realease of the iPhone based on all the hype (and it is just getting started, can you say TV ads?) it just might come out and people may actually like it. Maybe even the PC people will have to admit that Steve Jobs hit a grand slam this time out.
My estimate on Apple was $128 before the iPhone release, but that was based on a PE of 40, which I thought was reasonable given the growth rate.
With rumors floating around about an initial run of iPhones as large as 17 million, I'm starting to think that might be a little low. Who order's 17 million of a product ahead of the release? Certainly not Mr. Softy's Zune.
I happen to be more bullish than most on the impact that the iPhone will have on the stock price, so $150 is a pretty safe/conservative upper range for the stock.
At what price/share will the stock start being overpriced? Apple needs to continue gaining marketshare, release the true video iPods that everyone has been waiting for, and have better than expected iPhone sales. $150/share is a given, though.
You know, it's funny, some people here can't believe that someone who actually has made some money would be willing to be on these forums. Weird.
Of course, if I HAD bought at $3, and spent the same amount of money, well, I would just buy this site, and say anything I wanted to, er, not that I don't anyway.
Might this further widen the number of AAPL investors with S&P index funds, or what other significance is in this story?
That's an interesting question. If a company gets on that index, it could mean more funds would invest in it. But Apple is already so institutionally heavy, that I don't know if it would make a difference.
You know, it's funny, some people here can't believe that someone who actually has made some money would be willing to be on these forums. Weird.
Of course, if I HAD bought at $3, and spent the same amount of money, well, I would just buy this site, and say anything I wanted to, er, not that I don't anyway.
It's only natural to want to keep tabs on the stock that has paid off best for you... I've done OK so far (AAPL is my biggest gainer), but the stock gods seem to have smiled widely on you, mel.
It's only natural to want to keep tabs on the stock that has paid off best for you... I've done OK so far (AAPL is my biggest gainer), but the stock gods seem to have smiled widely on you, mel.
I'm a lot older than you. Keep holding it, and they'll be smiling at you too.
I'm a lot older than you. Keep holding it, and they'll be smiling at you too.
Out of curiosity, mel, are you a real estate investor also... and if so, has real estate paid off better than stocks for you? I know of many folks who have made far more solid gains in real estate vs. stock, even in a shaky housing market... \
Out of curiosity, mel, are you a real estate investor also... and if so, has real estate paid off better than stocks for you? I know of many folks who have made far more solid gains in real estate vs. stock, even in a shaky housing market... \
No, the only real estate is our house we bought 24 years ago.
But, in the housing market here in Forest Hills, which is in Queens, NYC, the houses have always gone up, even during a slump. Recently, I received an offer for five times what we paid back then.
Might this further widen the number of AAPL investors with S&P index funds, or what other significance is in this story?
Bottom line from this literature: There is a significant positive effect, but it is transitory. Perhaps some of the positive AAPL price movements in the past couple of days is attributable to the elevation to S&P100, but the evidence would suggest that, going forward, there is not much to expect from this.
(For those interested, the classic paper on this is: Pruitt, S. W. and K. C. J. Wei, 1989, "Institutional ownership and changes in the S&P 500," Journal of Finance 44, 509?13.)
The WSJ today has a small boxed article on page C8 about the change to the S&P 500 Index. It says that MedImmune Inc will be replaced by Precision Castings Corp.
Comments
My estimate on Apple was $128 before the iPhone release, but that was based on a PE of 40, which I thought was reasonable given the growth rate.
With rumors floating around about an initial run of iPhones as large as 17 million, I'm starting to think that might be a little low. Who order's 17 million of a product ahead of the release? Certainly not Mr. Softy's Zune.
Well, I was telling people on these boards to buy when the stock was at around $50/share.
I happen to be more bullish than most on the impact that the iPhone will have on the stock price, so $150 is a pretty safe/conservative upper range for the stock.
At what price/share will the stock start being overpriced? Apple needs to continue gaining marketshare, release the true video iPods that everyone has been waiting for, and have better than expected iPhone sales. $150/share is a given, though.
I made a lot of money on Apple in the late '90's. Lost almost 20% in 1999, before I sold out that, and my other investments.
I was thinking of buying in again when the price dropped to $3.
Now I'm really sorry I didn't.
I can't complain though, as I did buy in again at $16.93 pre-split.
My investment in Apple from that time went from five figures to its present seven.
Nicely played, mel.
And some more interesting news.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/...partner=alerts
Might this further widen the number of AAPL investors with S&P index funds, or what other significance is in this story?
Nicely played, mel.
You know, it's funny, some people here can't believe that someone who actually has made some money would be willing to be on these forums. Weird.
Of course, if I HAD bought at $3, and spent the same amount of money, well, I would just buy this site, and say anything I wanted to, er, not that I don't anyway.
Might this further widen the number of AAPL investors with S&P index funds, or what other significance is in this story?
That's an interesting question. If a company gets on that index, it could mean more funds would invest in it. But Apple is already so institutionally heavy, that I don't know if it would make a difference.
I remember when it was otherwise.
You know, it's funny, some people here can't believe that someone who actually has made some money would be willing to be on these forums. Weird.
Of course, if I HAD bought at $3, and spent the same amount of money, well, I would just buy this site, and say anything I wanted to, er, not that I don't anyway.
It's only natural to want to keep tabs on the stock that has paid off best for you... I've done OK so far (AAPL is my biggest gainer), but the stock gods seem to have smiled widely on you, mel.
It's only natural to want to keep tabs on the stock that has paid off best for you... I've done OK so far (AAPL is my biggest gainer), but the stock gods seem to have smiled widely on you, mel.
I'm a lot older than you. Keep holding it, and they'll be smiling at you too.
I'm a lot older than you. Keep holding it, and they'll be smiling at you too.
Out of curiosity, mel, are you a real estate investor also... and if so, has real estate paid off better than stocks for you? I know of many folks who have made far more solid gains in real estate vs. stock, even in a shaky housing market...
Out of curiosity, mel, are you a real estate investor also... and if so, has real estate paid off better than stocks for you? I know of many folks who have made far more solid gains in real estate vs. stock, even in a shaky housing market...
No, the only real estate is our house we bought 24 years ago.
But, in the housing market here in Forest Hills, which is in Queens, NYC, the houses have always gone up, even during a slump. Recently, I received an offer for five times what we paid back then.
Might this further widen the number of AAPL investors with S&P index funds, or what other significance is in this story?
Bottom line from this literature: There is a significant positive effect, but it is transitory. Perhaps some of the positive AAPL price movements in the past couple of days is attributable to the elevation to S&P100, but the evidence would suggest that, going forward, there is not much to expect from this.
(For those interested, the classic paper on this is: Pruitt, S. W. and K. C. J. Wei, 1989, "Institutional ownership and changes in the S&P 500," Journal of Finance 44, 509?13.)
The WSJ today has a small boxed article on page C8 about the change to the S&P 500 Index. It says that MedImmune Inc will be replaced by Precision Castings Corp.
I found that to be interesting.
No mention of Apple.