apple over 200

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Didn't someone just raise estimates of the stock over 200$ by the end of 08 or the next 12 months. Could have sworn I read an article here but can't find it.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 7
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,306member
    I hope not just for the sake of sanity.



    I love Apple and all but they are simply "not" a $200 a share company at this juncture. That would be a gross over-valuation IMO.
  • Reply 2 of 7
    notoriousnotorious Posts: 57member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    I hope not just for the sake of sanity.



    I love Apple and all but they are simply "not" a $200 a share company at this juncture. That would be a gross over-valuation IMO.





    That makes sense since it's only less than double where they are now. I mean only 12 months ago they were at 60$ for them to be at 120$ a year later is obviously a gross overvaluation. I mean three and a half years ago they were worth 10$ adjusted for the split. Now they're at 120$ 12x the value of three years ago. With a p/e in the same ballpark as 3 years ago to boot. Meaning the company is growing fast enough to match these gains the stock has made. So basically what your telling me is it's crazy for them to double in a year or more when they are doubling on average every 12 months for 3 and a half years?



    Ummmm...... Please elaborate.





    No one saw it either? Was I dreaming?
  • Reply 3 of 7
    That would be akin to processor power doubling every 24 months... like THAT could ever happen!

  • Reply 4 of 7
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,306member
    Notorious



    It's because I believe that the rise of Apple was fair due to the huge success with the iPod. Mac sales have improved however.



    I still feel like Macintosh software sales are relatively weak.

    Apple laptops are doing well but iMacs are getting old and Mac minis haven't been updated.



    It seems the bulk of the speculation is based on the iPhone's potential. While I'm an optimist I just think that Apple doesn't look like a 200 billion dollar company to me.



    The bulk of their success comes from consumer electronics sales which can be very fleeting unlike making business tools that entrench.



    Microsoft's market cap is 289 Billion. How in the world is Apple going be 2/3 of Microsoft when they have neither the product portfolio in lucrative software margin nor %90 marketshare.



    Microsofts two cash cows are Windows and Office. Apple sells a fair amount of OS X but it's paltry compared to Windows and they don't make a biz level Office Suite.



    A 200 billion Apple is overvalued and riding a wave of hype.
  • Reply 5 of 7
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    It seems the bulk of the speculation is based on the iPhone's potential. While I'm an optimist I just think that Apple doesn't look like a 200 billion dollar company to me.



    Apple at $200 is actually a $173 billion company. If you discount the $12 billion that they have in cash, the non-cash parts of the company would then be worth $161 billion - and since they are growing earnings at 33% per year even without the iPhone. Earnings are $4 billion now, all they need to do is have an earnings bump to $5 billion in order to justify $200/share.



    Microsoft is growing at 16%, and will grow slower in the future because everything they make sucks (except the xbox and now the surface), and because with 90% market share they can only grow as fast as the market grows, so they deserve a much lower multiple than Apple does.
  • Reply 6 of 7
    notoriousnotorious Posts: 57member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Notorious



    It's because I believe that the rise of Apple was fair due to the huge success with the iPod. Mac sales have improved however.



    I still feel like Macintosh software sales are relatively weak.

    Apple laptops are doing well but iMacs are getting old and Mac minis haven't been updated.



    It seems the bulk of the speculation is based on the iPhone's potential. While I'm an optimist I just think that Apple doesn't look like a 200 billion dollar company to me.



    The bulk of their success comes from consumer electronics sales which can be very fleeting unlike making business tools that entrench.



    Microsoft's market cap is 289 Billion. How in the world is Apple going be 2/3 of Microsoft when they have neither the product portfolio in lucrative software margin nor %90 marketshare.



    Microsofts two cash cows are Windows and Office. Apple sells a fair amount of OS X but it's paltry compared to Windows and they don't make a biz level Office Suite.



    A 200 billion Apple is overvalued and riding a wave of hype.





    Ummm.... again I think your a little misinformed.
  • Reply 7 of 7
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Notorious View Post


    Ummm.... again I think your a little misinformed.



    You're entitled to that opinion but playing Wall Street isn't exactly a science. Yes profit/loss and other metrics are used to determine stock value and I could easily be taking a pejorative view of Apple.



    I just think that where Apple is strong right now isn't quite as sustainable. If you sell a company a server or middleware they have to invest and entangle themselves. I have an ipod and I like it but I could pretty easily switch to a Zune if I wanted to. The entanglement isn't as strong. The iPhone might be a better platform for that.
Sign In or Register to comment.