Not so fast, anti-fanboy. Many of the people in the Apple store I went to bought 2 phones, 1 for themselves and 1 as a gift or to sell. I didn't activate right away nor did my my nephew who got my second phone. Buying 2 phones was commonplace if one believes the press (take that with a grain of salt) covering the sales on opening weekend.
Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?
What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?
And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.
They could. It just depends on how aggressive they want to be. I base my opinion on other companies that I've invested in in the past that were specifically asked that question, and stated that they did not recognize payment until the goods went out, not when the payment is received. Operating on accrual basis, you do not recognize a payment when you get it, you recognize it when you earn it. You don't close the books on that sale until it is out the door.
I don't see how it's a big deal though, most of the people who really wanted on that weekend bought it in the store, since nearly every store still had stock all through the weekend. Remember only Tuesday did the stock start running out at some locations, and in most cases came back on line the next day (all those returns!)
I agree that in a technical sense online sales should not be booked for that weekend. Apple may or may not divulge what has happened this quarter. I disagree, however, with your statement that people who wanted it that weekend waited on the pavement. Most people who buy high-end Apple products have the money because they work. The very last thing my wife and I were going to do with our Friday night or weekend was wait outside of a store. Although we wanted the phone and purchased online that weekend, we lacked the compulsiveness to camp out. I suspect that there are a whole lot of people just like us. Because of good impulse control we had the money to buy to phones and the discipline to wait to have them delivered to us. Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
...Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
True dat! The hue and cry over these numbers for two days is overblown. The iPhone numbers that Apple reports for the THIRD quarter (Jul 1 - Sep 30) will be VERY important - for AAPL, T, and all who have their money down on either or both stocks.
So its not all just about the iPhone guys, there are other things going on in the world..
Quote:
Shares fell sharply on both sides of the Atlantic and the dollar tumbled to a 15-year low against leading currencies yesterday, as world markets continued to be shaken by fears over US sub-prime mortgages.
The Dow Jones industrial average sank about 100 points as concerns grew that weakness in risky mortgages was spreading to supposedly safer prime loans, potentially sparking a credit crunch in the US economy.
This is a new market for Apple but tradionally mobile carriers base their sales figures on activations, nearly every mobile phone bought in the world would have been activated the day it was purchased, it is a fool proof method and true indication of forcasted revenue over the life of the contract. I do not understand why someone would buy an phone and not activate it right away it just makes no sense at all. Its like buying a new car and taking the wheels off it.
It think the opening week would have been a strange one, lots and lots of Apple Fanboys buying one for no other reason than it has an Apple on the front regardless of whether they need a phone or not. Things would have settled down by now and pretty much without exceptions activations will equal sales and therefore AT&T's figures for activations will become the best way of measuring sales figures.
Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?
What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?
And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.
I can only speak for myself. It was a gorgeous friday night on a beautiful summer weekend wih the 4th of July upcoming. I was in no hurry to activate, just to get both phones (my nephew's 21st was on 7/2). Some were in fact sold on eBay (~16,000 completed listings as of one week later, about half of which were consumated). Another 250 were sold to UK buyers at ridiculously high prices (thank you cheap dollar). I setup specialized searches to track ths stuff on ebay because I was curious. Of course with all eBay sales of such gadgets, fraud is epidemic so the actual number of transactions is unknowable.
This solidifies the observation that Gene Munster doesn't know jack. Pretty weak projections on his part.
But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .
-most folks who were going to activate ASAP were bought on fri. night
-many others (5% guess) bought 2+ for resell (won't be activating anytime soon)
-others (5% guesstimate) bought 2+ one for them and the other(s) as gifts for family & friends (gifts won't be activated right away)
-many ( 10% another wild guess) bought 2+ , the extras being for all the people that had been watching all the hype (e.g. long lines,..etc..) that gave $$$ to a friend, co-worker,family member, apple soldier, to buy one for them.
-a few (2%) were paid by their bosses or wealthy individuals, or just plain ol' busy people tostand in line and by it for them.
- a few (0.02% tiny guess) for analyst's tech underlings, and companies wishing to take them apart
to analysis and testing ( won't be activated either for sure).
Lets say there are 145k (activations)
lets say 60k who bought didn't activate until after midnight sunday a.m.
lets say there are 30k more buyers who couldn't activate until sunday because of at&t glitches.
lets say 50k more buyers(like me) got fed up when they heard, " were are experiencing high call volume at this time, your expected what time is........", so they hung up and decided to call back on sunday or something
lets say there are 50k more buyers who didn't activate because they had to set up itunes first
+ 10k that bought to resell
+ 30k gifts
+ lets say 150k iphone were sold online (since they were open the whole 30 hours). won't receive for weeks
=====so i'm guessing ====525,000 sold
the heavy weights pulled a big one on everyone today. So if you are one of those that got scared and sold, lesson learned.
they knew people would key in on "activations" thinking its close to the sales #
But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .
I think you're right. Might be a good idea to put in another buy order at 130 if it dips again in the morning...
I Almost Forgot What About The Online At&t Iphone Sales. Does At&t Sell Iphones Online?? That's A Good Way To Hide #s Stating Activations Only, Who Knows How Many They Sold Online.
"Switchers. A good percentage of iPhone buyers ? "more than 40 percent," according to AT&T ? were switching from another carrier, or were new cell phone users. Quite a few of them probably ported their phone numbers to their iPhones. The number porting process can take hours, on top of the time it takes to activate the phone."
Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.
I'm just glad I canceled by $137 limit order yesterday afternoon. I think I'll put one insomewhere between $133 and $135 depending on the after hours trading. I wonder if Apple's earning tomorrow will rebound this to a respectable level.
I don't mind these fluctuations. I even expect this extreme from time to time, but I hate when I have a feeling and don't follow through with it. I was contemplating selling on Monday and waiting for a few days before buying back in.
Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.
I just heard that apple gets paid $150 to $200 per iphone and a $9 a month fee from ATT . Aaron Task,, reporter,, and Scot Moritz but not sure of spelling . On street .com . The 7/23/07 show on ipod audio. Cramer says buy back now.
I'm going to repeat what I've been saying now in several threads. The sales over the first weekend are NOT meaningful. The sales over the next 90 days ARE meaningful. Unless Apple sold 10 million phones that first weekend, the next 90 days will tell if Apple will met their sales goal, IMO. There was way to much 'speculation' in those phones sold the first week for it to be a meaningful gauge of demand.
I'm going to repeat what I've been saying now in several threads. The sales over the first weekend are NOT meaningful. The sales over the next 90 days ARE meaningful. Unless Apple sold 10 million phones that first weekend, the next 90 days will tell if Apple will met their sales goal, IMO. There was way to much 'speculation' in those phones sold the first week for it to be a meaningful gauge of demand.
What will be meaningful is at 5 pm EST. Wednesday.
As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!
If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.
As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!
If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.
Nice maths, i am sure on your planet that all makes complete sense.
However those of us on Earth would understand that the huge demand in sales during the first week were mostly caused by Apple Fanboys who bought the phone without waiting to see how good it actually was or performed and would have queued all night to buy a empty box if it had an Apple logo imprinted on it. It is natural that after the first week and all the excitment has died down that sales would return to normal. Your calculations have totally failed to take this into consideration.
I would imagine that if they managed 150k activations in the first 2 days, they may well have got through another 300k the following week, I would see that figure drop dramaticly after that, maybe even 50k a week would be more likely.
Comments
Not so fast, anti-fanboy. Many of the people in the Apple store I went to bought 2 phones, 1 for themselves and 1 as a gift or to sell. I didn't activate right away nor did my my nephew who got my second phone. Buying 2 phones was commonplace if one believes the press (take that with a grain of salt) covering the sales on opening weekend.
Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?
What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?
And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.
They could. It just depends on how aggressive they want to be. I base my opinion on other companies that I've invested in in the past that were specifically asked that question, and stated that they did not recognize payment until the goods went out, not when the payment is received. Operating on accrual basis, you do not recognize a payment when you get it, you recognize it when you earn it. You don't close the books on that sale until it is out the door.
I don't see how it's a big deal though, most of the people who really wanted on that weekend bought it in the store, since nearly every store still had stock all through the weekend. Remember only Tuesday did the stock start running out at some locations, and in most cases came back on line the next day (all those returns!)
I agree that in a technical sense online sales should not be booked for that weekend. Apple may or may not divulge what has happened this quarter. I disagree, however, with your statement that people who wanted it that weekend waited on the pavement. Most people who buy high-end Apple products have the money because they work. The very last thing my wife and I were going to do with our Friday night or weekend was wait outside of a store. Although we wanted the phone and purchased online that weekend, we lacked the compulsiveness to camp out. I suspect that there are a whole lot of people just like us. Because of good impulse control we had the money to buy to phones and the discipline to wait to have them delivered to us. Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
I'll do you one better! ATT's low activation numbers were great news! Low ATT activation numbers mean HIGH sales numbers!
...Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
True dat! The hue and cry over these numbers for two days is overblown. The iPhone numbers that Apple reports for the THIRD quarter (Jul 1 - Sep 30) will be VERY important - for AAPL, T, and all who have their money down on either or both stocks.
Shares fell sharply on both sides of the Atlantic and the dollar tumbled to a 15-year low against leading currencies yesterday, as world markets continued to be shaken by fears over US sub-prime mortgages.
The Dow Jones industrial average sank about 100 points as concerns grew that weakness in risky mortgages was spreading to supposedly safer prime loans, potentially sparking a credit crunch in the US economy.
This is a new market for Apple but tradionally mobile carriers base their sales figures on activations, nearly every mobile phone bought in the world would have been activated the day it was purchased, it is a fool proof method and true indication of forcasted revenue over the life of the contract. I do not understand why someone would buy an phone and not activate it right away it just makes no sense at all. Its like buying a new car and taking the wheels off it.
It think the opening week would have been a strange one, lots and lots of Apple Fanboys buying one for no other reason than it has an Apple on the front regardless of whether they need a phone or not. Things would have settled down by now and pretty much without exceptions activations will equal sales and therefore AT&T's figures for activations will become the best way of measuring sales figures.
Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?
What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?
And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.
I can only speak for myself. It was a gorgeous friday night on a beautiful summer weekend wih the 4th of July upcoming. I was in no hurry to activate, just to get both phones (my nephew's 21st was on 7/2). Some were in fact sold on eBay (~16,000 completed listings as of one week later, about half of which were consumated). Another 250 were sold to UK buyers at ridiculously high prices (thank you cheap dollar). I setup specialized searches to track ths stuff on ebay because I was curious. Of course with all eBay sales of such gadgets, fraud is epidemic so the actual number of transactions is unknowable.
This solidifies the observation that Gene Munster doesn't know jack. Pretty weak projections on his part.
But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .
-many others (5% guess) bought 2+ for resell (won't be activating anytime soon)
-others (5% guesstimate) bought 2+ one for them and the other(s) as gifts for family & friends (gifts won't be activated right away)
-many ( 10% another wild guess) bought 2+ , the extras being for all the people that had been watching all the hype (e.g. long lines,..etc..) that gave $$$ to a friend, co-worker,family member, apple soldier, to buy one for them.
-a few (2%) were paid by their bosses or wealthy individuals, or just plain ol' busy people tostand in line and by it for them.
- a few (0.02% tiny guess) for analyst's tech underlings, and companies wishing to take them apart
to analysis and testing ( won't be activated either for sure).
Lets say there are 145k (activations)
lets say 60k who bought didn't activate until after midnight sunday a.m.
lets say there are 30k more buyers who couldn't activate until sunday because of at&t glitches.
lets say 50k more buyers(like me) got fed up when they heard, " were are experiencing high call volume at this time, your expected what time is........", so they hung up and decided to call back on sunday or something
lets say there are 50k more buyers who didn't activate because they had to set up itunes first
+ 10k that bought to resell
+ 30k gifts
+ lets say 150k iphone were sold online (since they were open the whole 30 hours). won't receive for weeks
=====so i'm guessing ====525,000 sold
the heavy weights pulled a big one on everyone today. So if you are one of those that got scared and sold, lesson learned.
they knew people would key in on "activations" thinking its close to the sales #
But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .
I think you're right.
"Switchers. A good percentage of iPhone buyers ? "more than 40 percent," according to AT&T ? were switching from another carrier, or were new cell phone users. Quite a few of them probably ported their phone numbers to their iPhones. The number porting process can take hours, on top of the time it takes to activate the phone."
;
Doesn't look like AAPL will go lower than 138 today... yet....
Update: Just went to 136 1/2! Guess I bought me some more AAPL!
We were both wrong. I am buying heavily in the AM. This really surprised me.
We were both wrong. I am buying heavily in the AM. This really surprised me.
Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.
Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.
I'm just glad I canceled by $137 limit order yesterday afternoon. I think I'll put one insomewhere between $133 and $135 depending on the after hours trading. I wonder if Apple's earning tomorrow will rebound this to a respectable level.
I don't mind these fluctuations. I even expect this extreme from time to time, but I hate when I have a feeling and don't follow through with it. I was contemplating selling on Monday and waiting for a few days before buying back in.
Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.
I just heard that apple gets paid $150 to $200 per iphone and a $9 a month fee from ATT . Aaron Task,, reporter,, and Scot Moritz but not sure of spelling . On street .com . The 7/23/07 show on ipod audio. Cramer says buy back now.
I'm going to repeat what I've been saying now in several threads. The sales over the first weekend are NOT meaningful. The sales over the next 90 days ARE meaningful. Unless Apple sold 10 million phones that first weekend, the next 90 days will tell if Apple will met their sales goal, IMO. There was way to much 'speculation' in those phones sold the first week for it to be a meaningful gauge of demand.
What will be meaningful is at 5 pm EST. Wednesday.
If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.
As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!
If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.
Nice maths, i am sure on your planet that all makes complete sense.
However those of us on Earth would understand that the huge demand in sales during the first week were mostly caused by Apple Fanboys who bought the phone without waiting to see how good it actually was or performed and would have queued all night to buy a empty box if it had an Apple logo imprinted on it. It is natural that after the first week and all the excitment has died down that sales would return to normal. Your calculations have totally failed to take this into consideration.
I would imagine that if they managed 150k activations in the first 2 days, they may well have got through another 300k the following week, I would see that figure drop dramaticly after that, maybe even 50k a week would be more likely.