Goldman: Apple prepping redesigned iMacs, full-screen iPods
Apple Inc. is gearing up for several major product releases during the current quarter that should help drive earnings and higher share prices, including an overhaul to iMac and new full-screen iPods, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.
"iPhone hype notwithstanding, with the heart of Apple?s product cycle about to begin, we want to stay with the stock," analyst David Bailey told clients in a research note Thursday. "In the September quarter, Apple will finish up a refresh of its entire Mac line-up, rounding it out with a redesigned iMac."
The analyst, who did not cite sources, said he also expects the company to launch a new family of iPods around the same time, which will pack significantly greater functionality at current price points,
"including the much-anticipated full screen video iPod."
Following Apple's earnings announcement and disclosure of initial iPhone sales figures on Wednesday, Bailey reduced his iPhone shipment forecast for the 2008 calendar year by 1 million units to 11 million units. However, he said Mac and iPod cycles still appear strong enough to generate higher volumes on their own.
"Stronger-than-expected retail traffic, a virtually complete revitalization in education, and the impact of Adobe?s CS3 in the commercial space should continue to drive better Mac sales and higher market share," the analyst wrote. "On the iPod side, we?ve changed our view about the level of cannibalization from iPhone based on early indications, particularly from the supply chain, about the coming video iPod which should be capable of driving an accelerated upgrade cycle."
Bailey also used Thursday's research note to increase his 2007 and 2008 calendar year per-share earnings estimates on the Mac maker to $3.71 and $4.30 from $3.58 and $4.30, respectively. However, the analyst said he found Apple's after-hours stock jump on Wednesday to be "somewhat perplexing" and would not be surprised to see the shares back off in the near term.
"That said, we do not expect our current earnings increase to be the last one, with even our current numbers yielding a new 12-month target price of $165 rolling the current multiple over to 2008 earnings," he wrote.
Bailey maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple.
"iPhone hype notwithstanding, with the heart of Apple?s product cycle about to begin, we want to stay with the stock," analyst David Bailey told clients in a research note Thursday. "In the September quarter, Apple will finish up a refresh of its entire Mac line-up, rounding it out with a redesigned iMac."
The analyst, who did not cite sources, said he also expects the company to launch a new family of iPods around the same time, which will pack significantly greater functionality at current price points,
"including the much-anticipated full screen video iPod."
Following Apple's earnings announcement and disclosure of initial iPhone sales figures on Wednesday, Bailey reduced his iPhone shipment forecast for the 2008 calendar year by 1 million units to 11 million units. However, he said Mac and iPod cycles still appear strong enough to generate higher volumes on their own.
"Stronger-than-expected retail traffic, a virtually complete revitalization in education, and the impact of Adobe?s CS3 in the commercial space should continue to drive better Mac sales and higher market share," the analyst wrote. "On the iPod side, we?ve changed our view about the level of cannibalization from iPhone based on early indications, particularly from the supply chain, about the coming video iPod which should be capable of driving an accelerated upgrade cycle."
Bailey also used Thursday's research note to increase his 2007 and 2008 calendar year per-share earnings estimates on the Mac maker to $3.71 and $4.30 from $3.58 and $4.30, respectively. However, the analyst said he found Apple's after-hours stock jump on Wednesday to be "somewhat perplexing" and would not be surprised to see the shares back off in the near term.
"That said, we do not expect our current earnings increase to be the last one, with even our current numbers yielding a new 12-month target price of $165 rolling the current multiple over to 2008 earnings," he wrote.
Bailey maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple.
Comments
(yes I do know what they mean)
Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)
Yes, it does make sense. Just as student shoppers begin to wane, Apple releases new computers and iPods to keep people coming into their stores. Apple has decided that the way to get students to buy their computers is to give them last year's iPod for free. So long as students keep buying into this marketing strategy, Apple won't care about whether students have all just bought last year's computer. It drives sales, so it works for Apple.
I wish the new ipods dropped in a couple of weeks and just weren't eligible for the student thing, because I could really use a new ipod right now but I don't wanna buy what will obviously be outdated in 2 months.
That is essentially what has happened the past couple of years. Only thing is that Apple released the new iPods about a week before the end of the student promotion. So we'll probably have to wait another seven weeks for iPods.
Apple Inc. is gearing up for several major product releases during the current quarter that should help drive earnings and higher share prices, including an overhaul to iMac and new full-screen iPods, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.
How much useful information is there in that opening sentence? NONE! They would have been just as informative had they said "Apple Inc. is gearing ip for several majopr product releases because they are a company and that's what companies do, most of the time, we think, I guess."
"iPhone hype notwithstanding, with the heart of Apple’s product cycle about to begin, we want to stay with the stock," analyst David Bailey told clients in a research note Thursday. "In the September quarter, Apple will finish up a refresh of its entire Mac line-up, rounding it out with a redesigned iMac."
The analyst, who did not cite sources, said he also expects the company to launch a new family of iPods around the same time, which will pack significantly greater functionality at current price points, "including the much-anticipated full screen video iPod."
Is this Magic 8-Ballery of the highest order? "All signs point to yes!" No wonder "the analyst" didn't cite sources... most places frown if you say "In a recent question and answer session with my own ass..."
Following Apple's earnings announcement and disclosure of initial iPhone sales figures on Wednesday, Bailey reduced his iPhone shipment forecast for the 2008 calendar year by 1 million units to 11 million units. However, he said Mac and iPod cycles still appear strong enough to generate higher volumes on their own.
So that in 11 months they can revise their estimate to more closely match actual sales figures.
"Stronger-than-expected retail traffic, a virtually complete revitalization in education, and the impact of Adobe’s CS3 in the commercial space should continue to drive better Mac sales and higher market share," the analyst wrote. "On the iPod side, we’ve changed our view about the level of cannibalization from iPhone based on early indications, particularly from the supply chain, about the coming video iPod which should be capable of driving an accelerated upgrade cycle."
Nice that he identified the supply chain... is it manufactuing supply chain? Retail supply chain? Made it up as I went along supply chain?
Guess which one I think it is...
Bailey also used Thursday's research note to increase his 2007 and 2008 calendar year per-share earnings estimates on the Mac maker to $3.71 and $4.30 from $3.58 and $4.30, respectively. However, the analyst said he found Apple's after-hours stock jump on Wednesday to be "somewhat perplexing" and would not be surprised to see the shares back off in the near term.
a .13 change? Yet he's baffled by the maxim "what goes up must come down"?
"That said, we do not expect our current earnings increase to be the last one, with even our current numbers yielding a new 12-month target price of $165 rolling the current multiple over to 2008 earnings," he wrote.
Yeah, buy high...
Bailey maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
Commissions are hard to come by if no one sells or buys stock.
Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)
The education buying season started recently, and goes through August, even into september.
Did he estimate that 2008 earnings would go up from 4.30 to 4.30?
Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)
Adding to what Denton said, Apple would be remiss to offer new items with a student discounts which can garnish a free $200 rebate when buying a Mac and iPod on top of your student discount.
With so many products to release this holiday season Apple will probably release some of these in Aug and Sept before the Student ends. But these have historically been ineligible for the BAck To School offer.
God I hope the new iMac has alot of iMac G4 in it. I cant wait to dump my MacBook and get one of these.
What do you mean by "G4" in it. I really don't get it.
reading between the lines though it sounded like the imacs will be the last to be updated, which if this is the case, very much doubt they will be ready for the 7th.
so basically hes saying new imacs, mac pros, macbooks, mini or mini replacement and ipods between now and sept 31st.
reading between the lines though it sounded like the imacs will be the last to be updated, which if this is the case, very much doubt they will be ready for the 7th.
I'd say the opposite. New iPods need to come out for the holiday season, but these need to be pushed back as far as possible to give the iPhone more breathing room. I expect the new iPods to be release around Spet. 16th, when the Back To School special ends.
I think October would be better but Leopard will have the October time slot.
I am expecting these new Macs in August. This gives two to three months of new Macs with Tiger. The longer the distance between this new HW and SW the less likely it will make people feel gypped (but we know this will happen anyway).
What do you mean by "G4" in it. I really don't get it.
I think what was meant was styled or arranged similarly to the G4 model, with a heavy base and a light screen on a little boom.
I'd say the opposite. New iPods need to come out for the holiday season, but these need to be pushed back as far as possible to give the iPhone more breathing room. I expect the new iPods to be release around Spet. 16th, when the Back To School special ends.
That may be pretty accurate. I think mid-Sept. was when they've done several of their iPod updates.
I think styled like the G4 model, with a heavy base and a light screen on a little boom.
Those days is over.