Analyst weighs in on Leopard, expected Macworld launches

Posted:
in macOS edited January 2014
Apple's upcoming release of Mac OS X Leopard could provide a major boost to the company's bottom line during the fall and could be bolstered even further by a new portable in January, according to a new report by analyst Gene Munster of investment firm Piper Jaffay.



The researcher maintained that Apple was "on track" to release Leopard by the end of October and that its timing could result in a surge of about $240 million to Apple's calendar fourth quarter results, even if adoption rates were similar to those from Mac OS X Tiger, which launched in April 2005. At the time, 15 percent of Apple's users bought either Tiger or a Mac preloaded with the software within six weeks of launch -- a feat possible due to the Mac maker's smaller customer base, but still widely believed to be a major accomplishment.



This uptake was expected to be higher as Apple's overall number of users running Mac OS X had nearly doubled from 12 to 23 million, Munster said. And unlike the launch of Windows Vista in January this year, Mac buyers were less likely to dent sales by waiting to receive the upgrade with a new computer, even as many enthusiasts upgraded or replaced existing systems specifically due to the new features.



"While we do not believe many consumers delay the purchase of a Mac because of Leopard, we expect its new features and updated look to be positive for Mac sales," the analyst wrote.



Munster supported the argument by drawing attention to projected Mac shipments in the quarter, which he predicted would range between 2.0 and 2.1 million units thanks in part to the new aluminum iMac and the back-to-school rush. iPhone and iPod sales traffic was likewise strong at retail outlets.



Apple was also unlikely to remain idle after the holiday season wrapped up, he added. The Piper Jaffray expert noted that the Cupertino, Calif.-based computer builder was most likely to expand its portable devices with at least one new system at Macworld show in January. Either a new Mac subnotebook or a multi-touch tablet was said to be '80 percent likely' for the IDG-run event.



Based on the new estimates, Piper Jaffray maintained its Outperform rating on Apple's stock, which surged 4 percent on Monday to close just short of $168.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 61
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,016member
    Munster is smoking crack if he seriously thinks a tablet is coming soon. Sounds like these monkeys are pulling their old pump it up and sell, sell, sell tricks. Pure drivel.
  • Reply 2 of 61
    digihdigih Posts: 21member
    "had more than doubled from 12 to 23 million"



    I'm not sure if this is a quote taken from the original report, but with my simple maths 23 is not quite the double of 12, definitely not "more"



    Sorry, couldn't resist
  • Reply 3 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Either a new Mac subnotebook or a multi-touch tablet was said to be '80 percent likely' for the IDG-run event.



    Why can't they just say "We think they will do this or that" instead of saying 80% chance... and why not 99%? There's still that 1% that can save your butt!



    BS, FUD (or the opposite?) to raise the stock price and take some profits. You will know when they have sold their shares when the price drops 5-7% in a day on a "bad outlook".



    Just like Men At Work's first album... Business As Usual.



    //glad I bought my stock in January!
  • Reply 4 of 61
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,242member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post


    Why can't they just say "We think they will do this or that" instead of saying 80% chance... and why not 99%? There's still that 1% that can save your butt!



    BS, FUD (or the opposite?) to raise the stock price and take some profits. You will know when they have sold their shares when the price drops 5-7% in a day on a "bad outlook".



    Just like Men At Work's first album... Business As Usual.



    //glad I bought my stock in January!



    In the Laws of Probability 80% probable isn't remotely the same as 99% probable.
  • Reply 5 of 61
    irelandireland Posts: 17,574member
    10" tablet please!!!
  • Reply 6 of 61
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    10" tablet please!!!



    With a 4:3 ratio display please.
  • Reply 7 of 61
    sekiosekio Posts: 150member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "While we do not believe many consumers delay the purchase of a Mac because of Leopard, we expect its new features and updated look to be positive for Mac sales," the analyst wrote.



    I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.
  • Reply 8 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sekio View Post


    I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.



    Myself excluded. I bought a 12" powerbook weeks before Tiger was released because I didn't want a new OS. Accellerated my purchase by six months or so, and I'm glad I did.
  • Reply 9 of 61
    nevenneven Posts: 54member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sekio View Post


    I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.



    You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.
  • Reply 10 of 61
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by neven View Post


    You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.



    • Most Mac users aren't going to care about a measly $129 upgrade fee

    • Some Mac users will DL a copy illegally since there is no authentication code (shame on you people!)

    • Some will wait until 10.5.{1-3} is available before upgrading due to stability issues.

    • Very few will hold off to save $129. The most likely reason to holdoff is to see if Apple releases new HW updates. The MacBooks, in particular, should be updated any day now.

    • WIth about 50% of Mac users being "switchers" their knowledge of Leopard is pretty much nil as neven stated.
  • Reply 11 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    In the Laws of Probability 80% probable isn't remotely the same as 99% probable.



    If they were using laws instead of pulling numbers out of ...er... a hat, then I would agree.

    Either they have info or not, the rest is speculation.
  • Reply 12 of 61
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    half of all analysts believe that the quote "there is a '80 percent chance that new portables will come out in the %08 calendar year" is @40 percent accurate at satisfying a third of consumers...



    i will take my $100 iPhone credit and pick up leopard with it... just what Jobs wants.
  • Reply 13 of 61
    g5mang5man Posts: 91member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by neven View Post


    You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.



    I beg to differ. last time 15% bought it within six weeks. If this time we have 20% out of 23 million we are looking at 4.6 million people buying the software. I think about 20% of those which is about 900K are waiting for Leopard before upgrading. There is no guarantee they will. But if new Macs and improved performance are part of the Leopard release, then we could see a surge of new Macs being sold.



    I am one of those waiting.
  • Reply 14 of 61
    macsharkmacshark Posts: 229member
    All this and no target price upgrade for AAPL?



    Only 432.09 till AAPL hits 600!
  • Reply 15 of 61
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,016member
    What's the calendar on Apple's quarter end? When's the next call?
  • Reply 16 of 61
    I've been dying to get my hands on a new imac... but with leopard so close, why would I buy a new imac only to upgrade it 3 weeks later. So, I'm sitting tight. I hate upgrades, but maybe that's just my bad history with windows upgrades, thus the reason I'm switching to a mac. Windows is an old dog with no new tricks. Guaranteed I'm buying a fully loaded imac on the day of the leopard release.
  • Reply 17 of 61
    walshbjwalshbj Posts: 864member
    I'm really curious about what will be the show-stopper at Macworld. I was kind of expecting a sub-notebook at the Leopard launch, but maybe that was giving the rumors too much merit.

    Last year it was the iPhone. The year before was the Macbook Pro, wasn't it? I don't remember.



    They must be holding something for Macworld. What is it??
  • Reply 18 of 61
    baygbmbaygbm Posts: 147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sekio View Post


    I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.



    Me too.
  • Reply 19 of 61
    irelandireland Posts: 17,574member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    With a 4:3 ratio display please.



    I'll think you'll find you meant 3:2, or 16:10 perhaps?



    4:3? Hell no.
  • Reply 20 of 61
    thebeatthebeat Posts: 113member
    will they be releasing the new Macbook Pro Penyrth processor at MACWORLD?
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