These prices will drop at about the same speed as HDD prices, not much faster.
Prices of solid-state devices drop much faster than prices of electro-mechanical devices. I can remember when RAM cost $1/byte. It's now close to $0.01 per Mbyte. That's 8 orders of magnitude in about 30 years. By contrast, the earliest winchester drives cost $1/Kbyte. Now they cost about $1/Gbyte. That's only 6 orders of magnitude in about the same time. In other words, RAM now costs 1% of what it used to priced in hard drives. The same has been happening with SSDDs since I first bought one 8 years ago.
In several years the price per GB for SSDDs and HDDs will cross over and that will be the end of spinning hard disks. The idea of putting a 1" hard drive in a camera or phone is already dead. Laptops will be next, then desktops and servers. In 2008, SSDDs in laptops will be just BTO options. In 2009, they will be mainstream. By 2010, it will be difficult to find a new laptop with a HDD as all the new designs will have the SSDD integrated on the motherboard.
With SanDisk’s Vaulter Disk, which is a flash-based PCI Express module, both laptop and desktop computer manufacturers are able to harness the speed of embedded flash memory for frequently accessed files while continuing to use a spinning hard drive for bulk storage of less frequently accessed data. The Vaulter Disk requires only enough memory to host the computer’s operating system and selected optional user data that is benefited by the faster access time using flash memory. The hard drive stores files, user-generated content and applications that do not require or benefit from faster seek times. The two drives operate in parallel, thereby increasing the overall speed and performance of the PC.
The SanDisk Vaulter Disk will be offered to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) early next year in capacities of from 8 gigabytes (GB)1 to 16GB. “This system solution brings SanDisk’s flash performance benefits to the price-sensitive consumer who needs high-capacity storage,” said Doreet Oren, SanDisk director of product marketing for the computing solutions division. “While we make other products for the PC market, Vaulter allows us to expand our offerings,” she added.
SanDisk Vaulter Disk accelerates performance by pre-controlling the distribution of storage data between itself and a high-capacity hard drive. This parallel activity increases overall user responsiveness over a hard drive-only configuration.
“SanDisk Vaulter Disk consistently boosts user responsiveness by taking advantage of the best native characteristics of a flash-based module and a hard drive,” said Tavi Salomon, Vaulter product manager at SanDisk “It is the parallel operation of both Vaulter and the hard disk that provides an affordable solution for consumer PC users who will benefit from flash memory performance.”
The SanDisk Vaulter Disk’s storage concept, for which patents have been applied, transparently speeds up data retrieval for boot and application load operations, as well as unexpected user access to new files. With SanDisk Vaulter Disk, Salomon explained, there is faster response time when a user randomly accesses many small files for repeated operations, such as opening applications, and for unexpected behavior, such as retrieving new applications or entries on the Internet.
The patent describes multitouch on what is apparently a MacBook or MBP, using a touchpad that extends over the entire bottom of the base and a camera that monitors where the hand is (to avoid accidental data entry). Need I mention Apple's camera-in-pixels patent? This patent further specifies that it is not relevant "what sort of QWERTY keyboard is used". It isn't much of a stretch to imagine a touchscreen keyboard.
A power chord instead of a brick!Damned bricks eat up briefcase space!
Ummm, do you want the weight of that brick in your "thin, light, 13" screen machine"? That is th easiest way to get it off the cord. Of course it would add not only weight and volume to the "ultra-portible but also some heat...
I'll go with the brick and just buy a second cord for work so i don't have to tote the cord every day.
Ummm, do you want the weight of that brick in your "thin, light, 13" screen machine"? That is th easiest way to get it off the cord. Of course it would add not only weight and volume to the "ultra-portible but also some heat...
I'll go with the brick and just buy a second cord for work so i don't have to tote the cord every day.
I'm with you Bageljoey. The brick is the best engineering solution for the reasons you mention. If the power supply is built into the laptop, cooling becomes a nightmare, adding a lot of weight and increasing noise levels substantially. It would also require an additional DC connector to support DC power supplies such as on airliners and in automobiles, etc.
Prices of solid-state devices drop much faster than prices of electro-mechanical devices. I can remember when RAM cost $1/byte. It's now close to $0.01 per Mbyte. That's 8 orders of magnitude in about 30 years. By contrast, the earliest winchester drives cost $1/Kbyte. Now they cost about $1/Gbyte. That's only 6 orders of magnitude in about the same time. In other words, RAM now costs 1% of what it used to priced in hard drives. The same has been happening with SSDDs since I first bought one 8 years ago.
In several years the price per GB for SSDDs and HDDs will cross over and that will be the end of spinning hard disks. The idea of putting a 1" hard drive in a camera or phone is already dead. Laptops will be next, then desktops and servers. In 2008, SSDDs in laptops will be just BTO options. In 2009, they will be mainstream. By 2010, it will be difficult to find a new laptop with a HDD as all the new designs will have the SSDD integrated on the motherboard.
I doubt that very much. It's going to take some time before that happens. you can't simply compare miniature high value products with the majority of drives out there.
It will be quite some time before we see a 360 GB 2.5" SSD. By the time that happens, there will be 10 terabyte 2.5" HDD's.
Your numbers are a bit (ah pun!) off as well. A one terabyte drive now costs $300. That's about $0.30 a GB.
RAM isn't what's being used in SDD's. It's always a form of Flash. With the newest, most advanced SSD's, such as the new 64 GB Samsung having a consumer price (in a laptop) of about $1,300 (n additional $950 over the HDD in the Dell), that's about $20+ per GB.
At least, get your numbers correct.
And don't say that the Samsung price will drop, because so will the prices of the HDD's you're comparing these SSD's to.
When the first one terabyte drive came out earlier this year, it was $400.
I'm with you Bageljoey. The brick is the best engineering solution for the reasons you mention. If the power supply is built into the laptop, cooling becomes a nightmare, adding a lot of weight and increasing noise levels substantially. It would also require an additional DC connector to support DC power supplies such as on airliners and in automobiles, etc.
Can't they make a lighter brick? What about a switching mode charger? Also, this thing will likely have a fairly low power requirement anyway (no HD, no optical, smaller LED screen, probably not the highest ranked CPU) so I would imagine 4-5 hours of actual use before requiring a charge. If they add a detachable battery, the user could add as many as he wants.
I doubt that very much. It's going to take some time before that happens. you can't simply compare miniature high value products with the majority of drives out there.
Of course I can. SSDD are starting the transition from being an esoteric high-value product to being a mainstream product. In addition to being solid-state, that will drive prices down faster than HDD prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
It will be quite some time before we see a 360 GB 2.5" SSD. By the time that happens, there will be 10 terabyte 2.5" HDD's.
256GB SSDDs are planned for H2 2009. 2.5" HDDs will be up to 1TB by then and will, of course, be much slower, less reliable, noisier, and use much more power. By 2010, not many people will want to put the latter in a laptop. It's exactly like the transition from HDDs to SSDDs in iPods, just a few years later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Your numbers are a bit (ah pun!) off as well. A one terabyte drive now costs $300. That's about $0.30 a GB. ... At least, get your numbers correct.
I provided order-of-magnitude numbers which were correct. Insisting on more precision doesn't make something incorrect.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
RAM isn't what's being used in SDD's. It's always a form of Flash.
I never wrote that RAM is used in SSDDs, so please don't try to misrepresent what I wrote. Having worked in technology development at Intel, I have a good grasp of the difference between RAM and flash.
The price decline of RAM is a good model for the rate of price decline for flash because the technology and manufacturing techniques are similar. HDDs are a completely different kettle of fish and your assertion that flash prices fall at the same rate as HDD prices is unsupportable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
And don't say that the Samsung price will drop, because so will the prices of the HDD's you're comparing these SSD's to.
So does the price of copper and glass but, like HDD prices, at a slower rate than flash.
Actually, the price of copper is going to increase over time, as demand is rising while supplies are shrinking. The recent earthquake in Chile doesn't help either. Actually, copper is running out at a considerably faster pace than even oil. Expecting copper prices to drop is pretty naive.
Can't they make a lighter brick? What about a switching mode charger? Also, this thing will likely have a fairly low power requirement anyway (no HD, no optical, smaller LED screen, probably not the highest ranked CPU) so I would imagine 4-5 hours of actual use before requiring a charge. If they add a detachable battery, the user could add as many as he wants.
You won't get 4-5 hours of actual use, because Apple would go for thin, thin, thin, giving the portable a very low-volume battery. Me, I would rather it was 3" thick if that meant 12 hours of battery life.
Dumb question. What cpu is Apple going to use on this machine? I didn't think the mobile Penryns would be available till later next year. Will it get a low voltage core 2 chip?
If they really are going for a sub notebook with all the usual cutoffs, then they're probably going for a low voltage chip, yes.
What will the temperature concerns for something like this? Assuming, say, a <1" thick architecture, what sort of fan/cooling mechanism will be able to fit? How hot will this notebook get? My MacBook can just about cook eggs when its fan is on and I'm running Halo.
Dumb question. What cpu is Apple going to use on this machine? I didn't think the mobile Penryns would be available till later next year. Will it get a low voltage core 2 chip?
Of course I can. SSDD are starting the transition from being an esoteric high-value product to being a mainstream product. In addition to being solid-state, that will drive prices down faster than HDD prices.
You can really use your imagination, can't you?
They won't be "mainstream for two years. A very few extremely expensive upgrades to a very few machines doesn't make a product mainstream.
9quote]
256GB SSDDs are planned for H2 2009. 2.5" HDDs will be up to 1TB by then and will, of course, be much slower, less reliable, noisier, and use much more power. By 2010, not many people will want to put the latter in a laptop. It's exactly like the transition from HDDs to SSDDs in iPods, just a few years later.[/quote]
Yes, by late 2009, we will see 256 GB SSD's, for a couple of thousand.
Meanwhile, HDD's will continue to be almost 100 times less expensive GB to GB.
Quote:
I provided order-of-magnitude numbers which were correct. Insisting on more precision doesn't make something incorrect.
first of all, you compared the wrong things. Second of all, you were off by an order of magnitude.
Quote:
I never wrote that RAM is used in SSDDs, so please don't try to misrepresent what I wrote. Having worked in technology development at Intel, I have a good grasp of the difference between RAM and flash.
We're comparing SSD's to HDD's. You brought RAM into the discussion by incorrectly using those prices, which have nothing to do with SSD's, into it. I didn't. I merely pointed out your error.
Quote:
The price decline of RAM is a good model for the rate of price decline for flash because the technology and manufacturing techniques are similar. HDDs are a completely different kettle of fish and your assertion that flash prices fall at the same rate as HDD prices is unsupportable.
Again, the price of RAM has nothing to do with the discussion.
Please stick to products that do.
Quote:
So does the price of copper and glass but, like HDD prices, at a slower rate than flash.
Bringing something else that has nothing to do with this into the discussion doesn't help the incorrect assertions you are making.
Comments
Nothing new in the article. I put a 130MB SSDD in a Libretto in 1999 or 2000, so I have some experience with SSDDs in laptops.
Prices drop. SSDD prices are dropping fast.
Actually, everything in the article is new.
These prices will drop at about the same speed as HDD prices, not much faster.
These prices will drop at about the same speed as HDD prices, not much faster.
Prices of solid-state devices drop much faster than prices of electro-mechanical devices. I can remember when RAM cost $1/byte. It's now close to $0.01 per Mbyte. That's 8 orders of magnitude in about 30 years. By contrast, the earliest winchester drives cost $1/Kbyte. Now they cost about $1/Gbyte. That's only 6 orders of magnitude in about the same time. In other words, RAM now costs 1% of what it used to priced in hard drives. The same has been happening with SSDDs since I first bought one 8 years ago.
In several years the price per GB for SSDDs and HDDs will cross over and that will be the end of spinning hard disks. The idea of putting a 1" hard drive in a camera or phone is already dead. Laptops will be next, then desktops and servers. In 2008, SSDDs in laptops will be just BTO options. In 2009, they will be mainstream. By 2010, it will be difficult to find a new laptop with a HDD as all the new designs will have the SSDD integrated on the motherboard.
With SanDisk’s Vaulter Disk, which is a flash-based PCI Express module, both laptop and desktop computer manufacturers are able to harness the speed of embedded flash memory for frequently accessed files while continuing to use a spinning hard drive for bulk storage of less frequently accessed data. The Vaulter Disk requires only enough memory to host the computer’s operating system and selected optional user data that is benefited by the faster access time using flash memory. The hard drive stores files, user-generated content and applications that do not require or benefit from faster seek times. The two drives operate in parallel, thereby increasing the overall speed and performance of the PC.
The SanDisk Vaulter Disk will be offered to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) early next year in capacities of from 8 gigabytes (GB)1 to 16GB. “This system solution brings SanDisk’s flash performance benefits to the price-sensitive consumer who needs high-capacity storage,” said Doreet Oren, SanDisk director of product marketing for the computing solutions division. “While we make other products for the PC market, Vaulter allows us to expand our offerings,” she added.
SanDisk Vaulter Disk accelerates performance by pre-controlling the distribution of storage data between itself and a high-capacity hard drive. This parallel activity increases overall user responsiveness over a hard drive-only configuration.
“SanDisk Vaulter Disk consistently boosts user responsiveness by taking advantage of the best native characteristics of a flash-based module and a hard drive,” said Tavi Salomon, Vaulter product manager at SanDisk “It is the parallel operation of both Vaulter and the hard disk that provides an affordable solution for consumer PC users who will benefit from flash memory performance.”
The SanDisk Vaulter Disk’s storage concept, for which patents have been applied, transparently speeds up data retrieval for boot and application load operations, as well as unexpected user access to new files. With SanDisk Vaulter Disk, Salomon explained, there is faster response time when a user randomly accesses many small files for repeated operations, such as opening applications, and for unexpected behavior, such as retrieving new applications or entries on the Internet.
Who was calling me crazy?
I have not used its DVD/CD drive except to load software.
It fits into my briefcase.
I can read the screen.
I can use the keyboard.
WiFi, Bluetooth, and my .mac account keep me in sync at all times!
The 40GB (37.26 usable) drive holds what I need to carry.
All I want to do is replace it with another, more modern, more portable Macintosh...!
Give me a thin, light, 13" screen machine with:
60GB disk (I really don't care HDD vs SSD)
4GB of RAM (Leopard flies on my Mac Pro with 3GB)
A great keyboard
A great screen
A power chord instead of a brick! Damned bricks eat up briefcase space!
Maybe Steve has designed one for me like he did four years ago!
Announced yesterday by Sandisk:
Who was calling me crazy?
Nice. Very nice. Now, if we can get a HDD under 7 or 8mm....
Apple patent
The patent describes multitouch on what is apparently a MacBook or MBP, using a touchpad that extends over the entire bottom of the base and a camera that monitors where the hand is (to avoid accidental data entry). Need I mention Apple's camera-in-pixels patent? This patent further specifies that it is not relevant "what sort of QWERTY keyboard is used". It isn't much of a stretch to imagine a touchscreen keyboard.
Who was calling ME crazy?
Give me a thin, light, 13" screen machine with:
<*snip*>
A power chord instead of a brick! Damned bricks eat up briefcase space!
Ummm, do you want the weight of that brick in your "thin, light, 13" screen machine"? That is th easiest way to get it off the cord. Of course it would add not only weight and volume to the "ultra-portible but also some heat...
I'll go with the brick and just buy a second cord for work so i don't have to tote the cord every day.
Ummm, do you want the weight of that brick in your "thin, light, 13" screen machine"? That is th easiest way to get it off the cord. Of course it would add not only weight and volume to the "ultra-portible but also some heat...
I'll go with the brick and just buy a second cord for work so i don't have to tote the cord every day.
I'm with you Bageljoey. The brick is the best engineering solution for the reasons you mention. If the power supply is built into the laptop, cooling becomes a nightmare, adding a lot of weight and increasing noise levels substantially. It would also require an additional DC connector to support DC power supplies such as on airliners and in automobiles, etc.
Prices of solid-state devices drop much faster than prices of electro-mechanical devices. I can remember when RAM cost $1/byte. It's now close to $0.01 per Mbyte. That's 8 orders of magnitude in about 30 years. By contrast, the earliest winchester drives cost $1/Kbyte. Now they cost about $1/Gbyte. That's only 6 orders of magnitude in about the same time. In other words, RAM now costs 1% of what it used to priced in hard drives. The same has been happening with SSDDs since I first bought one 8 years ago.
In several years the price per GB for SSDDs and HDDs will cross over and that will be the end of spinning hard disks. The idea of putting a 1" hard drive in a camera or phone is already dead. Laptops will be next, then desktops and servers. In 2008, SSDDs in laptops will be just BTO options. In 2009, they will be mainstream. By 2010, it will be difficult to find a new laptop with a HDD as all the new designs will have the SSDD integrated on the motherboard.
I doubt that very much. It's going to take some time before that happens. you can't simply compare miniature high value products with the majority of drives out there.
It will be quite some time before we see a 360 GB 2.5" SSD. By the time that happens, there will be 10 terabyte 2.5" HDD's.
Your numbers are a bit (ah pun!) off as well. A one terabyte drive now costs $300. That's about $0.30 a GB.
RAM isn't what's being used in SDD's. It's always a form of Flash. With the newest, most advanced SSD's, such as the new 64 GB Samsung having a consumer price (in a laptop) of about $1,300 (n additional $950 over the HDD in the Dell), that's about $20+ per GB.
At least, get your numbers correct.
And don't say that the Samsung price will drop, because so will the prices of the HDD's you're comparing these SSD's to.
When the first one terabyte drive came out earlier this year, it was $400.
I'm with you Bageljoey. The brick is the best engineering solution for the reasons you mention. If the power supply is built into the laptop, cooling becomes a nightmare, adding a lot of weight and increasing noise levels substantially. It would also require an additional DC connector to support DC power supplies such as on airliners and in automobiles, etc.
Can't they make a lighter brick? What about a switching mode charger? Also, this thing will likely have a fairly low power requirement anyway (no HD, no optical, smaller LED screen, probably not the highest ranked CPU) so I would imagine 4-5 hours of actual use before requiring a charge. If they add a detachable battery, the user could add as many as he wants.
Apple already has some of the smallest power bricks in the industry. Have you ever seen a Dell laptop power adapter? These things are HUGE.
I doubt that very much. It's going to take some time before that happens. you can't simply compare miniature high value products with the majority of drives out there.
Of course I can. SSDD are starting the transition from being an esoteric high-value product to being a mainstream product. In addition to being solid-state, that will drive prices down faster than HDD prices.
It will be quite some time before we see a 360 GB 2.5" SSD. By the time that happens, there will be 10 terabyte 2.5" HDD's.
256GB SSDDs are planned for H2 2009. 2.5" HDDs will be up to 1TB by then and will, of course, be much slower, less reliable, noisier, and use much more power. By 2010, not many people will want to put the latter in a laptop. It's exactly like the transition from HDDs to SSDDs in iPods, just a few years later.
Your numbers are a bit (ah pun!) off as well. A one terabyte drive now costs $300. That's about $0.30 a GB. ... At least, get your numbers correct.
I provided order-of-magnitude numbers which were correct. Insisting on more precision doesn't make something incorrect.
RAM isn't what's being used in SDD's. It's always a form of Flash.
I never wrote that RAM is used in SSDDs, so please don't try to misrepresent what I wrote. Having worked in technology development at Intel, I have a good grasp of the difference between RAM and flash.
The price decline of RAM is a good model for the rate of price decline for flash because the technology and manufacturing techniques are similar. HDDs are a completely different kettle of fish and your assertion that flash prices fall at the same rate as HDD prices is unsupportable.
And don't say that the Samsung price will drop, because so will the prices of the HDD's you're comparing these SSD's to.
So does the price of copper and glass but, like HDD prices, at a slower rate than flash.
Can't they make a lighter brick? What about a switching mode charger? Also, this thing will likely have a fairly low power requirement anyway (no HD, no optical, smaller LED screen, probably not the highest ranked CPU) so I would imagine 4-5 hours of actual use before requiring a charge. If they add a detachable battery, the user could add as many as he wants.
You won't get 4-5 hours of actual use, because Apple would go for thin, thin, thin, giving the portable a very low-volume battery. Me, I would rather it was 3" thick if that meant 12 hours of battery life.
If they really are going for a sub notebook with all the usual cutoffs, then they're probably going for a low voltage chip, yes.
that's not a dumb question at all.
If they really are going for a sub notebook with all the usual cutoffs, then they're probably going for a low voltage chip, yes.
What will the temperature concerns for something like this? Assuming, say, a <1" thick architecture, what sort of fan/cooling mechanism will be able to fit? How hot will this notebook get? My MacBook can just about cook eggs when its fan is on and I'm running Halo.
Dumb question. What cpu is Apple going to use on this machine? I didn't think the mobile Penryns would be available till later next year. Will it get a low voltage core 2 chip?
Mobile Penryns are planned for January 2008.
However, the two hottest parts in an MBP are not the CPUs, but the GPU and the Wireless Module.
Of course I can. SSDD are starting the transition from being an esoteric high-value product to being a mainstream product. In addition to being solid-state, that will drive prices down faster than HDD prices.
You can really use your imagination, can't you?
They won't be "mainstream for two years. A very few extremely expensive upgrades to a very few machines doesn't make a product mainstream.
9quote]
256GB SSDDs are planned for H2 2009. 2.5" HDDs will be up to 1TB by then and will, of course, be much slower, less reliable, noisier, and use much more power. By 2010, not many people will want to put the latter in a laptop. It's exactly like the transition from HDDs to SSDDs in iPods, just a few years later.[/quote]
Yes, by late 2009, we will see 256 GB SSD's, for a couple of thousand.
Meanwhile, HDD's will continue to be almost 100 times less expensive GB to GB.
I provided order-of-magnitude numbers which were correct. Insisting on more precision doesn't make something incorrect.
first of all, you compared the wrong things. Second of all, you were off by an order of magnitude.
I never wrote that RAM is used in SSDDs, so please don't try to misrepresent what I wrote. Having worked in technology development at Intel, I have a good grasp of the difference between RAM and flash.
We're comparing SSD's to HDD's. You brought RAM into the discussion by incorrectly using those prices, which have nothing to do with SSD's, into it. I didn't. I merely pointed out your error.
The price decline of RAM is a good model for the rate of price decline for flash because the technology and manufacturing techniques are similar. HDDs are a completely different kettle of fish and your assertion that flash prices fall at the same rate as HDD prices is unsupportable.
Again, the price of RAM has nothing to do with the discussion.
Please stick to products that do.
So does the price of copper and glass but, like HDD prices, at a slower rate than flash.
Bringing something else that has nothing to do with this into the discussion doesn't help the incorrect assertions you are making.