Does this analyst do standup at The Comedy Store too?
Even going off the most optimistic of the estimates in the article Apple didn't sell more than 200,000 in it's launch month in Europe and ongoing it's selling 14,000 a week (at best) in Germany. That's terrible. 2 phones a day in each store.
14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.
Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.
Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.
If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.
If you are getting an iPhone as a phone first, you are missing the boat entirely; your priorities are completely opposite the real market. It's a phone last-- it is a web browser, mail client, entertainment device first... and it happens to be a great phone as well.
Everybody uses their toys for different things, but what makes the iPhone compelling is doing a great job with the web experience.
Not for me. I use my iPhone as a phone all the time. I use it for web browsing fairly infrequently.
Of course, Asia makes even Europe seem a bit like the minor leagues in these respects, and that's the next big market to launch in, only a few months away.
You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .
14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.
Thing is though, that's a launch pace of course, i.e. extremely difficult to maintain. \
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Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.
You certain? For the US launch, they sold 270K iPhones during the three-day launch weekend. That's a 90K per day pace. Obviously, they haven't kept THAT kind of pace up, otherwise Apple would be on target to sell over 30 million iPhones per year in the US alone(!).
Checking the figures, it appears that Apple ended up selling 1.1 million iPhones in the US during calendar Q3. That's more like a 4.4 million units/year pace. Quite good, but nowhere near launch pace.
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Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.
Again, during launch, you'd expect them to be able to outsell older phones, since many of the ppl who wanted them already have them. A better comparison might be something like Euro iPhone launch figures vs N95 Euro launch figures, I'd imagine.
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If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.
I think the jury's still out on that, at best. But I'm hoping. 'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.
You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .
You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now. \
Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.
Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.
Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.
So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.
How do you know how demanding the Japan and Korean markets are? Do you study global economics?
Gosh, Teno, I guess you didn't read my post at all. What matters most to Apple is not how many users, but how many users are wealthy enough to actually AFFORD the iPhone, and who are willing to pay a premium for it over competing products. That's common sense. I mean, we routinely tell people that Apple doesn't aim their $1400 average-selling price Macs at ppl who want $500 laptops, so... how are phones any different?
And yes, Japan and Korea are the most demanding markets in the world, with (by far) the highest rates of 3G penetration (exceeding 50%, or will by the time of the iPhone's Asian launch), and the the most advanced phones in the world. This is both common knowledge and stuff that you can look up, and no one I've met who's heavily into wireless questions it... you can find many thousands of articles confirming it, or just talk to ppl who travel/live there, or have done same yourself. No need for a PhD in global economics.
Let's just say there are some settled issues in wireless, that would be one of them.
But here, I'll help you out a bit:
Asia hints at mobile tech's future
By Marguerite Reardon
Staff writer, CNET News.com (June 1, 2007)
If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.
For years, those two countries have been the world leaders in cell phone technology adoption...
3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea
20 Apr 2006 at 14:28 GMT Timo Poropudas
3G penetration has reached 40 percent in Japan and South Korea. The operators in these countries provide valuable lessons for mobile operators in other regions, according to a new report from.
Mobile operators in Japan and South Korea have consistently led the world in the development of innovative mobile services and technology. They have unrivalled track records of introducing new handset capabilities and services, and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.
aegisdesign, you state that the Nokia N95 is selling way better than the iPhone, and in the very next sentence you refer to an ad that gives away the Nokia for free. Total "sales" of the iPhone would obliterate the Nokia N95 if Apple gave them away with a contract!
If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.
I fundamentally disagree with this article. They are more advanced to some degree. But its just as much cultural differences as it is technological advancement. People in the US are not as interested in having swiss army phones. The only technology they list that we don't have in the US is the barcode on the phone.
Perhaps Asians are more honest but I cannot see the barcode being a very popular feature in the US. I cannot think of too many people who would want easy access to their financial life through their phone. Financial institutions would not be thrilled with it either. Phones are easily lost or stolen and anyone can have easy access to your financial life. Phones get hacked and someone can have easy access to your financial life. Their are already serious problems with electronic financial theft we don't need to offer more access.
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.
We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.
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3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea
There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.
Japan covers 145,883 square miles with 127 million people.
S. Korea covers 38,492 square miles with 49 million people.
US covers 3,793,079 square miles with 302 million people
The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets and is several times larger. Japan/Korea having far less land to cover and a smaller population to service, can adapt to new technology much quicker. The same goes for the countries in Europe.
Its much more difficult and takes more time to change the US mobile infrastructure and equip its population with new handsets. That challenge in accordance with short sightedness from US mobile carriers has put us where we are today.
Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature.
And yet, it has been in Asia. Again, they are generally more accepting of advanced phone features than other markets in the world are. Which completely lines up with what one of the above articles stated, namely:
...and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.
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There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.
You go on to explain why 3G penetration rates in Asia are much higher than in the US and Europe, without disagreeing that it's true. Which is great, since it's a fact that those rates are much higher in Japan and Korea than elsewhere in the world.
Mmm.. okay. Guess we agree then... Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.
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The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets...
Maybe once upon a time. But not recently. First large commercial 3G network launced in the world? Japan, in January of 2001. We're a couple of years behind them, at least.
Their mobile penetration rates for wireless service (not just 3G) are also quite a bit ahead of the US. Again, we'll get there in a few years.
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Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
Well, purely anecdotal assertions are always to be taken with a grain of salt. But I would agree that cellphone software has never been particularly awesome. It's far from an Asian-only thing, however. Nokia is by far the largest cellphone maker in the world, and they're Finnish. Motorola is No. 3 in the world, and they're American.
I believe the iPhone can do well, even in the most advanced markets in the world, but only if they meet or beat consumer expectations over there. Part of that is software, but part of that is also features.
However, I don't think either of us have much to worry about here. While LG and other Asian makers are beginning the process of catching up to the iPhone in terms of software (look at Verizon's recent LG touchscreen Voyager phone), they aren't there yet, and it will be a long time before they are. The iPhone should still have a significant edge in software and UI over the competition by launch time.
And Apple is no doubt aware of the feature set that's needed to compete over there, and that the consequences for not meeting it are greater than in other markets. They'll have a 3G iPhone ready for the Asian launch. I have a feeling that the Asian launch should be less bumpy than the European one has apparently been.
Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.
The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that. To call where they are technologically advanced is to some degree subjective. The US and Asia are not completely interested in the same features.
How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it. There are a few million people in Asia who will appreciate a phone with superior software design and functionality as much as gimmicky gadgetry.
Apple's expectation isn't for the iPhone to out sell every phone dominating the worlds mobile markets.
The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that.
Feel free, your opinion is your own. But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.
I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive). Our high-speed network coverage is spottier. The Asian implementations to this point have been generally better.
Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.
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How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it.
Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing. Nokia and Motorola combined are around 50 percent of the worldwide cellphone market, and neither is Asian.
But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.
Analysts said it was a good idea for Time Warner and AOL to merge. We see how that turned out.
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I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive).
Anything is possible but I just don't see the evidence. This prediction works on the assumption that people will want it just because its there.
Again my own anecdotal observation but mobile TV have been around for years. I've never really seen anyone say "wow you can watch TV on your phone". Its a gimmick we in the US are not impressed with.
We are much more into playing music than we are television.
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Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.
I don't see how it is inevitable. Its not anything anyone is asking for. It doesn't solve inherent problems we have in exchanging currency for goods or services. It offers more problems such as how would we realistically, reliably, and safely implement it.
It would only be something to do just because you can.
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Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing.
In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.
But be that as it may the iPhone offers improvement.
You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now. \
Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.
Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.
Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.
...
Well, typical statement from one who is not living in Asia. Lots of them in China are using cheap phones, but the really hairy bit is that the typical China Consumer will want to pay top dollar for REAL products especially luxury goods. And besides, the number of people who have the money to spend on a iPhone and want to do so in China is well, enough to hit the 10M Target in one country alone. (Or maybe less if you consider the number of unlocked US sets floating arround and fake goods) As for a 3G phone for an Asian lanuch, it depends of where. If China, no 3G, Japan and Korea yes... everywhere else not really. But seriously, any one want to take a guess on which country in Asia will have the iPhone first?
That is a very impressive number. Higher than I would have thought. Although, one should keep in mind that it represents sales volume worldwide (at the moment, the iPhone is available only in four countries).
I'm not sure they did release it worldwide back in the summer though. IIRC it wasn't released in the USA until much later. Anyway, just think it's doubtful that the iPhone is outselling the N95 or will continue to after the first few weeks rush, not with the deals you get now on the old N95.
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Originally Posted by darngooddesign
Makes perfect sense really.
Get worldwide momentum going with the way the phone works and then release a higher spec model for the Asian release. More than enough time will have passed for the upgrade not to piss people off like the price drop did, and since we'll get the same software upgrade its going to feel like we got new phones.
I've no sympathy for people whining that their toy has been 'made obsolete' by a new model. It happens all the time with other phone manufacturers so why shouldn't it happen with the iPhone?
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Originally Posted by TBaggins
'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.
I'm really hoping sales suck in Europe and Apple/the carriers do a number of things to rectify that, not least of which is reducing the prices to sensible levels.
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Originally Posted by TenoBell
So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.
Incidentally we Brits think of Asia as being mostly India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan which I note rarely get included in the US definition of Asia, which is mostly Eastern Asia. With a population bigger than China, you should perhaps include that in your definition of Asia.
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Originally Posted by one9deuce
aegisdesign, you state that the Nokia N95 is selling way better than the iPhone, and in the very next sentence you refer to an ad that gives away the Nokia for free. Total "sales" of the iPhone would obliterate the Nokia N95 if Apple gave them away with a contract!
Yes it most certainly would but Apple are not giving them away. They're completely bucking the market here by charging a huge scad of cash instead.
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Originally Posted by TenoBell
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.
We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.
I'd guess it's got something to do with transport too. In Japan and Europe, we commute by public transport more (though still not enough IMHO). In the US, you're wedded to your cars. That quite possibly has quite an effect on phone usage patterns and features used. I think, disregarding the bizarre pricing scheme in the USA, that also partly explains Europe and Asia's love affair with texting, which you can do on a train without being disrespectful to your fellow passengers.
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Originally Posted by TenoBell
Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
That's something else I've noticed, in the USA you're much more likely to use 'Asian' brands like LG, Honda and the like in all walks of life. It's no wonder there's such a low opinion of phones in the USA when the top brands are LG or your own Motorola.
In context it makes the success of the iPhone in the USA look easy as it had little competition.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell
In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.
Back in a former life I wrote compiler software for Japanese companies (NEC, IBM Japan, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and more) which they rebadged as their own and had many conversations with Japanese programming counterparts. The Japanese do technology extremely well and can copy things and improve on them. eg. NEC taking the 8088 in the late 70s and producing the V20. What they aren't good at is original technology ideas and creating. This shows up the most in their software IME which whilst usually having zero bugs, will usually also have a terrible design.
I just bought a UK iPhone. I cannot believe (a) how easy it was to set-up, (b) how easy it is to use, and (c) what a delight the user interface is. It is like a piece of technology from the 25th Century just landed in my lap. It is jaw-droppingly brilliant, a work of pure genius.
It is worth getting this phone simply for its touch screen. Once you get used to typing messages using the keyboard, you'll soon find that you can do it faster than with a Blackberry.
I had the whole thing up and running within ten minutes of opening the box. It sucked up all my contact data, calendar appointments, email settings and other stuff from Outlook without a single glitch. How did they do that? The more I use Apple stuff, the more I realise how much time I've wasted with Windows-based PCs gobbledy-gook over the years. Setting up any Apple product seems to be such a no-brainer, you only need to focus on the tasks you bought it to accomplish.
The four primary functions are excellent: phone, email, web and iPod. Internet connection speeds aren't blazingly fast, but once you get to the web page you want, the ability of the touch screen to zoom in or out makes reading text and viewing images very easy. In fact, no other handheld machine provides a better web experience. Period.
All of the other stuff that comes with it such as the camera, stock prices, weather, clock and Google maps just adds to the overall quality of the user experience.
Anybody who thinks the nokia N95 is better obviously hasn't tried both.
If this is Apple's first effort to produce a smart phone, God help the competition when the next version comes out. Sell your shares in Nokia and Motorola immediately. So in case you're is still wondering whether to buy one of these machines, trust me when I say you won't be disappointed. But don't take my word, see for yourself.
Given the high cost of an iPhone, O2 is gaining new customers almost exclusively to the detriment of Vodafone. Having just migrated from Vodafone to O2 myself, I must say that if anyone from Vodafone is reading this: you guys need to kick yourselves for not beating down Apple's door to get the contract. Your top management must be nuts. unfortunately greed got in the way of customer service. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman: That was a huge mistake!
It doesn't surprise me that German iPhone sales are soft; Germans tend to look for good bargains, and aren't SO concerned with status symbols.
I predict the Italian launch will be HUGE, despite price. I've spent a lot of time in Italy, and Italians overall are simply the most fashion-conscious people in Western Europe (I mean this in a good way); they also LOVE their cell phones and use them as much as fashion statements as communication devices (though that gets a good workout there too).
Obviously I'm speaking in broad strokes here, but wait and see.
The four primary functions are excellent: phone, email, web and iPod. Internet connection speeds aren't blazingly fast, but once you get to the web page you want, the ability of the touch screen to zoom in or out makes reading text and viewing images very easy. In fact, no other handheld machine provides a better web experience. Period.
All of the other stuff that comes with it such as the camera, stock prices, weather, clock and Google maps just adds to the overall quality of the user experience.
Anybody who thinks the nokia N95 is better obviously hasn't tried both.
If this is Apple's first effort to produce a smart phone, God help the competition when the next version comes out. Sell your shares in Nokia and Motorola immediately. So in case you're is still wondering whether to buy one of these machines, trust me when I say you won't be disappointed. But don't take my word, see for yourself.
Given the high cost of an iPhone, O2 is gaining new customers almost exclusively to the detriment of Vodafone. Having just migrated from Vodafone to O2 myself, I must say that if anyone from Vodafone is reading this: you guys need to kick yourselves for not beating down Apple's door to get the contract. Your top management must be nuts. unfortunately greed got in the way of customer service. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman: That was a huge mistake!
Dont want to rain on your parade, but each to their own... Does your Dad work for Apple?
Several people I know who have/had the phone (actually of the 4 only 1 has actually kept the phone and chiefly because of the browser app)... the others proclaimed that the iPhone as a phone blows chunks --poor signal quality, lousy SMS limitations, no MMS (for a smart multimedia phone this is quite an ommission).. it's a great iPod, great browser but their consensus was that it sucks as a phone. Their perosnal experinece has kep me from getting it - that the the absurd tariffs.
Given the numbers sold in the UK, and the amount that 02 has to give up to Apple, I dont think Vodaphone is crying. They probably put twice as many N95's in their customers hands in the time the iPhone has been out
Comments
Does this analyst do standup at The Comedy Store too?
Even going off the most optimistic of the estimates in the article Apple didn't sell more than 200,000 in it's launch month in Europe and ongoing it's selling 14,000 a week (at best) in Germany. That's terrible. 2 phones a day in each store.
14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.
Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.
Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.
If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.
If you are getting an iPhone as a phone first, you are missing the boat entirely; your priorities are completely opposite the real market. It's a phone last-- it is a web browser, mail client, entertainment device first... and it happens to be a great phone as well.
Everybody uses their toys for different things, but what makes the iPhone compelling is doing a great job with the web experience.
Not for me. I use my iPhone as a phone all the time. I use it for web browsing fairly infrequently.
Of course, Asia makes even Europe seem a bit like the minor leagues in these respects, and that's the next big market to launch in, only a few months away.
You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .
14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.
Thing is though, that's a launch pace of course, i.e. extremely difficult to maintain.
Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.
You certain? For the US launch, they sold 270K iPhones during the three-day launch weekend. That's a 90K per day pace. Obviously, they haven't kept THAT kind of pace up, otherwise Apple would be on target to sell over 30 million iPhones per year in the US alone(!).
Checking the figures, it appears that Apple ended up selling 1.1 million iPhones in the US during calendar Q3. That's more like a 4.4 million units/year pace. Quite good, but nowhere near launch pace.
Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.
Again, during launch, you'd expect them to be able to outsell older phones, since many of the ppl who wanted them already have them. A better comparison might be something like Euro iPhone launch figures vs N95 Euro launch figures, I'd imagine.
If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.
I think the jury's still out on that, at best. But I'm hoping. 'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.
...
You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .
You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now.
Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.
Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.
Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.
...
You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are.
So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.
How do you know how demanding the Japan and Korean markets are? Do you study global economics?
So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.
How do you know how demanding the Japan and Korean markets are? Do you study global economics?
Gosh, Teno, I guess you didn't read my post at all. What matters most to Apple is not how many users, but how many users are wealthy enough to actually AFFORD the iPhone, and who are willing to pay a premium for it over competing products. That's common sense. I mean, we routinely tell people that Apple doesn't aim their $1400 average-selling price Macs at ppl who want $500 laptops, so... how are phones any different?
And yes, Japan and Korea are the most demanding markets in the world, with (by far) the highest rates of 3G penetration (exceeding 50%, or will by the time of the iPhone's Asian launch), and the the most advanced phones in the world. This is both common knowledge and stuff that you can look up, and no one I've met who's heavily into wireless questions it... you can find many thousands of articles confirming it, or just talk to ppl who travel/live there, or have done same yourself. No need for a PhD in global economics.
Let's just say there are some settled issues in wireless, that would be one of them.
But here, I'll help you out a bit:
Asia hints at mobile tech's future
By Marguerite Reardon
Staff writer, CNET News.com (June 1, 2007)
If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.
For years, those two countries have been the world leaders in cell phone technology adoption...
http://www.cnet.com/4520-13387_1-673...l&tag=lwt_more
3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea
20 Apr 2006 at 14:28 GMT Timo Poropudas
3G penetration has reached 40 percent in Japan and South Korea. The operators in these countries provide valuable lessons for mobile operators in other regions, according to a new report from.
Mobile operators in Japan and South Korea have consistently led the world in the development of innovative mobile services and technology. They have unrivalled track records of introducing new handset capabilities and services, and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.
http://www.mobilemonday.net/news/3g-...nd-south-korea
.
If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.
I fundamentally disagree with this article. They are more advanced to some degree. But its just as much cultural differences as it is technological advancement. People in the US are not as interested in having swiss army phones. The only technology they list that we don't have in the US is the barcode on the phone.
Perhaps Asians are more honest but I cannot see the barcode being a very popular feature in the US. I cannot think of too many people who would want easy access to their financial life through their phone. Financial institutions would not be thrilled with it either. Phones are easily lost or stolen and anyone can have easy access to your financial life. Phones get hacked and someone can have easy access to your financial life. Their are already serious problems with electronic financial theft we don't need to offer more access.
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.
We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.
3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea
There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.
Japan covers 145,883 square miles with 127 million people.
S. Korea covers 38,492 square miles with 49 million people.
US covers 3,793,079 square miles with 302 million people
The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets and is several times larger. Japan/Korea having far less land to cover and a smaller population to service, can adapt to new technology much quicker. The same goes for the countries in Europe.
Its much more difficult and takes more time to change the US mobile infrastructure and equip its population with new handsets. That challenge in accordance with short sightedness from US mobile carriers has put us where we are today.
Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature.
And yet, it has been in Asia. Again, they are generally more accepting of advanced phone features than other markets in the world are. Which completely lines up with what one of the above articles stated, namely:
...and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.
There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.
You go on to explain why 3G penetration rates in Asia are much higher than in the US and Europe, without disagreeing that it's true. Which is great, since it's a fact that those rates are much higher in Japan and Korea than elsewhere in the world.
Mmm.. okay. Guess we agree then... Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.
The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets...
Maybe once upon a time. But not recently. First large commercial 3G network launced in the world? Japan, in January of 2001. We're a couple of years behind them, at least.
Their mobile penetration rates for wireless service (not just 3G) are also quite a bit ahead of the US. Again, we'll get there in a few years.
Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
Well, purely anecdotal assertions are always to be taken with a grain of salt. But I would agree that cellphone software has never been particularly awesome. It's far from an Asian-only thing, however. Nokia is by far the largest cellphone maker in the world, and they're Finnish. Motorola is No. 3 in the world, and they're American.
I believe the iPhone can do well, even in the most advanced markets in the world, but only if they meet or beat consumer expectations over there. Part of that is software, but part of that is also features.
However, I don't think either of us have much to worry about here. While LG and other Asian makers are beginning the process of catching up to the iPhone in terms of software (look at Verizon's recent LG touchscreen Voyager phone), they aren't there yet, and it will be a long time before they are. The iPhone should still have a significant edge in software and UI over the competition by launch time.
And Apple is no doubt aware of the feature set that's needed to compete over there, and that the consequences for not meeting it are greater than in other markets. They'll have a 3G iPhone ready for the Asian launch. I have a feeling that the Asian launch should be less bumpy than the European one has apparently been.
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Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.
The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that. To call where they are technologically advanced is to some degree subjective. The US and Asia are not completely interested in the same features.
How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it. There are a few million people in Asia who will appreciate a phone with superior software design and functionality as much as gimmicky gadgetry.
Apple's expectation isn't for the iPhone to out sell every phone dominating the worlds mobile markets.
The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that.
Feel free, your opinion is your own. But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.
I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive). Our high-speed network coverage is spottier. The Asian implementations to this point have been generally better.
Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.
How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it.
Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing. Nokia and Motorola combined are around 50 percent of the worldwide cellphone market, and neither is Asian.
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But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.
Analysts said it was a good idea for Time Warner and AOL to merge. We see how that turned out.
I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive).
Anything is possible but I just don't see the evidence. This prediction works on the assumption that people will want it just because its there.
Again my own anecdotal observation but mobile TV have been around for years. I've never really seen anyone say "wow you can watch TV on your phone". Its a gimmick we in the US are not impressed with.
We are much more into playing music than we are television.
Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.
I don't see how it is inevitable. Its not anything anyone is asking for. It doesn't solve inherent problems we have in exchanging currency for goods or services. It offers more problems such as how would we realistically, reliably, and safely implement it.
It would only be something to do just because you can.
Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing.
In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.
But be that as it may the iPhone offers improvement.
You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now.
Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.
Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.
Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.
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Well, typical statement from one who is not living in Asia. Lots of them in China are using cheap phones, but the really hairy bit is that the typical China Consumer will want to pay top dollar for REAL products especially luxury goods. And besides, the number of people who have the money to spend on a iPhone and want to do so in China is well, enough to hit the 10M Target in one country alone. (Or maybe less if you consider the number of unlocked US sets floating arround and fake goods) As for a 3G phone for an Asian lanuch, it depends of where. If China, no 3G, Japan and Korea yes... everywhere else not really. But seriously, any one want to take a guess on which country in Asia will have the iPhone first?
A popular iPhone in Europe could also result in a "halo" that translates to increased sales for the Mac on the continent, according to the report.
Let's hope it leads to some fucking Apple stores here too!
But seriously, any one want to take a guess on which country in Asia will have the iPhone first?
Good question (and good points).
I don't think it will be either Japan or Korea!
That is a very impressive number. Higher than I would have thought. Although, one should keep in mind that it represents sales volume worldwide (at the moment, the iPhone is available only in four countries).
I'm not sure they did release it worldwide back in the summer though. IIRC it wasn't released in the USA until much later. Anyway, just think it's doubtful that the iPhone is outselling the N95 or will continue to after the first few weeks rush, not with the deals you get now on the old N95.
Makes perfect sense really.
Get worldwide momentum going with the way the phone works and then release a higher spec model for the Asian release. More than enough time will have passed for the upgrade not to piss people off like the price drop did, and since we'll get the same software upgrade its going to feel like we got new phones.
I've no sympathy for people whining that their toy has been 'made obsolete' by a new model. It happens all the time with other phone manufacturers so why shouldn't it happen with the iPhone?
'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.
I'm really hoping sales suck in Europe and Apple/the carriers do a number of things to rectify that, not least of which is reducing the prices to sensible levels.
So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.
Incidentally we Brits think of Asia as being mostly India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan which I note rarely get included in the US definition of Asia, which is mostly Eastern Asia. With a population bigger than China, you should perhaps include that in your definition of Asia.
aegisdesign, you state that the Nokia N95 is selling way better than the iPhone, and in the very next sentence you refer to an ad that gives away the Nokia for free. Total "sales" of the iPhone would obliterate the Nokia N95 if Apple gave them away with a contract!
Yes it most certainly would but Apple are not giving them away. They're completely bucking the market here by charging a huge scad of cash instead.
Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.
We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.
I'd guess it's got something to do with transport too. In Japan and Europe, we commute by public transport more (though still not enough IMHO). In the US, you're wedded to your cars. That quite possibly has quite an effect on phone usage patterns and features used. I think, disregarding the bizarre pricing scheme in the USA, that also partly explains Europe and Asia's love affair with texting, which you can do on a train without being disrespectful to your fellow passengers.
Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.
That's something else I've noticed, in the USA you're much more likely to use 'Asian' brands like LG, Honda and the like in all walks of life. It's no wonder there's such a low opinion of phones in the USA when the top brands are LG or your own Motorola.
In context it makes the success of the iPhone in the USA look easy as it had little competition.
In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.
Back in a former life I wrote compiler software for Japanese companies (NEC, IBM Japan, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and more) which they rebadged as their own and had many conversations with Japanese programming counterparts. The Japanese do technology extremely well and can copy things and improve on them. eg. NEC taking the 8088 in the late 70s and producing the V20. What they aren't good at is original technology ideas and creating. This shows up the most in their software IME which whilst usually having zero bugs, will usually also have a terrible design.
I just bought a UK iPhone. I cannot believe (a) how easy it was to set-up, (b) how easy it is to use, and (c) what a delight the user interface is. It is like a piece of technology from the 25th Century just landed in my lap. It is jaw-droppingly brilliant, a work of pure genius.
It is worth getting this phone simply for its touch screen. Once you get used to typing messages using the keyboard, you'll soon find that you can do it faster than with a Blackberry.
I had the whole thing up and running within ten minutes of opening the box. It sucked up all my contact data, calendar appointments, email settings and other stuff from Outlook without a single glitch. How did they do that? The more I use Apple stuff, the more I realise how much time I've wasted with Windows-based PCs gobbledy-gook over the years. Setting up any Apple product seems to be such a no-brainer, you only need to focus on the tasks you bought it to accomplish.
The four primary functions are excellent: phone, email, web and iPod. Internet connection speeds aren't blazingly fast, but once you get to the web page you want, the ability of the touch screen to zoom in or out makes reading text and viewing images very easy. In fact, no other handheld machine provides a better web experience. Period.
All of the other stuff that comes with it such as the camera, stock prices, weather, clock and Google maps just adds to the overall quality of the user experience.
Anybody who thinks the nokia N95 is better obviously hasn't tried both.
If this is Apple's first effort to produce a smart phone, God help the competition when the next version comes out. Sell your shares in Nokia and Motorola immediately. So in case you're is still wondering whether to buy one of these machines, trust me when I say you won't be disappointed. But don't take my word, see for yourself.
Given the high cost of an iPhone, O2 is gaining new customers almost exclusively to the detriment of Vodafone. Having just migrated from Vodafone to O2 myself, I must say that if anyone from Vodafone is reading this: you guys need to kick yourselves for not beating down Apple's door to get the contract. Your top management must be nuts. unfortunately greed got in the way of customer service. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman: That was a huge mistake!
I predict the Italian launch will be HUGE, despite price. I've spent a lot of time in Italy, and Italians overall are simply the most fashion-conscious people in Western Europe (I mean this in a good way); they also LOVE their cell phones and use them as much as fashion statements as communication devices (though that gets a good workout there too).
Obviously I'm speaking in broad strokes here, but wait and see.
I think many of the above comments are spot on.
The four primary functions are excellent: phone, email, web and iPod. Internet connection speeds aren't blazingly fast, but once you get to the web page you want, the ability of the touch screen to zoom in or out makes reading text and viewing images very easy. In fact, no other handheld machine provides a better web experience. Period.
All of the other stuff that comes with it such as the camera, stock prices, weather, clock and Google maps just adds to the overall quality of the user experience.
Anybody who thinks the nokia N95 is better obviously hasn't tried both.
If this is Apple's first effort to produce a smart phone, God help the competition when the next version comes out. Sell your shares in Nokia and Motorola immediately. So in case you're is still wondering whether to buy one of these machines, trust me when I say you won't be disappointed. But don't take my word, see for yourself.
Given the high cost of an iPhone, O2 is gaining new customers almost exclusively to the detriment of Vodafone. Having just migrated from Vodafone to O2 myself, I must say that if anyone from Vodafone is reading this: you guys need to kick yourselves for not beating down Apple's door to get the contract. Your top management must be nuts. unfortunately greed got in the way of customer service. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman: That was a huge mistake!
Dont want to rain on your parade, but each to their own... Does your Dad work for Apple?
Several people I know who have/had the phone (actually of the 4 only 1 has actually kept the phone and chiefly because of the browser app)... the others proclaimed that the iPhone as a phone blows chunks --poor signal quality, lousy SMS limitations, no MMS (for a smart multimedia phone this is quite an ommission).. it's a great iPod, great browser but their consensus was that it sucks as a phone. Their perosnal experinece has kep me from getting it - that the the absurd tariffs.
Given the numbers sold in the UK, and the amount that 02 has to give up to Apple, I dont think Vodaphone is crying. They probably put twice as many N95's in their customers hands in the time the iPhone has been out