Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007)

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  • Reply 4481 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Business Week: Blu-ray Is Winning



    http://www.tvpredictions.com/business120707.htm



    Quote:

    The publication says it [Blu-ray] could get Warner endorsement.



    Washington, D.C. (December 7, 2007) -- Blu-ray has emerged as the clear front runner in the high-def DVD format war against HD DVD.



    That's according to an analysis published today by Business Week magazine.



    The publication, which has considerable influence in the financial world, writes that Blu-ray still holds the greatest support among Hollywood studios. Four major studios now back Blu-ray exclusively while only two support HD DVD exclusively.



    Consequently, Business Week says, the Sony-backed Blu-ray disc has outsold HD DVD by roughly 2-1 for the past year.



    Additionally, the publication reports that Sony may be close to landing an exclusive endorsement from Warner Bros., which until now has released films in both formats.



    "The rumor is that Warner is coming aboard soon," Michael Burns, vice-chairman of Blu-ray supporter Lionsgate, tells Business Week. "That will make it awfully tough for HD DVD to stay in this game."




    Business Week added that "either side could (win the Warner endorsement)...but the Sony group has suddenly emerged as the front runner."



    "Persuading it (Warner) to sign an exclusive deal would give the Sony crowd about 70% of DVD market share. That could prompt the other studios to abandon HD DVD," the publication writes.



    Business Week notes that if Warner were to join HD DVD, the format war would be stalemated.



    "That could create mass consumer confusion and potentially strangle a new technology that the studios hope will give a lift to flagging DVD sales. That's exactly why Warner has long pushed for a single format," it said.



    Here's hoping that the rumor is true...and the sooner we can all start enjoying Blu-ray discs in our Macs.
  • Reply 4482 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Ahhh...like I've stated before, Warner has choices here...



    1) Choose Blu-ray: Become widely recognized as the studio who single handily saved the high-def market by putting Blu-ray over the top. Be recognized as a studio who has consumer's interests in mind by relying on sales trends and facts. In addition become a hugely lucrative studio, enjoying royalties from the BDA at an increased clip due to more consumers diving into the high-def arena with one clear winner.



    2) Choose HD DVD: Become widely recognized as the studio who single handily drove the high-def market into oblivion. Probably not the move that is in their best interest as it would assuredly stagnate the market and put it in a perpetual stalemate, thus effecting their bottom line negatively in the amount of mass sales.



    3) Stay Neutral: Prolong the inevitable victory of Blu-ray while incurring additional costs by supporting both and having to continue to neuter their encodes due to the space limitations on HD DVD--a simple fact that will reflect on Warner badly in terms of the PQ and AQ they provide to the end consumer.



    ...Personally, #1 makes all the sense in the world for them from a business perspective. I honestly don't see them making the other two choices, even with HUGE payoffs, as the consequences of such as I previously mentioned will hit them directly and negatively.



    Anyhow, here's hoping the rumor is true...
  • Reply 4483 of 4650
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Next-Gen DVDs: Advantage, Sony



    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...3028294846.htm



    Quote:

    It's a fight with more plot twists and intrigue than a Hollywood thriller. For two years now, rival camps have been battling over which new DVD format will prevail: Blu-ray, which is backed by Sony (SNE) and a consortium of 170 other companies, or HD DVD, which is being championed by Toshiba (TOSBF), Microsoft (MSFT), and others. Both technologies promise crisper video that looks better on the new generation of flat-panel, high-definition TVs. And the winner stands to control a lucrative new market worth billions. Each side has been competing to win the backing of the major movie studios. Only Warner Bros. (TWX), which currently uses both formats, is still playing hard to get.



    Now, with the Jan. 7 International Consumer Electronics Show fast approaching, Sony and Toshiba are keen to announce they have won over Hollywood's last holdout. In the meantime, they are falling over themselves to woo Warner. While either side could prevail, the Sony group has suddenly emerged as the front-runner.



    Why? Because despite a setback this summer when the HD DVD companies signed up Paramount Pictures (VIA) and DreamWorks Animation (DWA), the Blu-ray forces have still lined up more studios than the HD DVD side. Plus this year, the Sony team has sold more than twice as many discs. "The rumor is that Warner is coming aboard soon," says Michael Burns, vice-chairman of studio Lionsgate (LGF), which makes its movies available on the Sony-backed format. "That will make it awfully tough for HD DVD to stay in this game." (Sony declined to comment, and Toshiba only would say it is "in regular contact with the studios.")



    From the beginning, the two camps' overarching strategy has been the same: getting access to as many movies as possible. It isn't hard to see why. Consumers will buy the new technology only if they believe most of the films they want will be available.



    Right now the Blu-ray team has enough studios on board?among them Disney (DIS), Fox (NWS), and, of course, Sony?to account for about 49% of current DVD market share. Warner is a prolific film factory, releasing as many as 30 pictures a year, including those produced by sister studio New Line Cinema. Persuading it to sign an exclusive deal would give the Sony crowd about 70% of DVD market share. That could prompt the other studios to abandon HD DVD.



    On the other hand, if Toshiba were to win Warner's hand, the two forces would divide the market between them. That could create mass consumer confusion and potentially strangle a new technology that the studios hope will give a lift to flagging DVD sales. That's exactly why Warner has long pushed for a single format.



    WOOING WARNER



    The battle has heated up since HD DVD got Paramount and DreamWorks Animation. Both sides have been beating a path to Warner's Burbank (Calif.) doorstep. Yoshihide Fujii, the head of Toshiba's HD DVD business in Japan, has made three trips to the U.S. since the summer, say those with knowledge of the situation. And while Andrew House, Sony's chief marketing officer, has been pressing the Blu-ray case, the stakes are sufficiently high that Sony CEO Howard Stringer has been making personal appeals to Richard Parsons and Jeffrey Bewkes, the two top executives at Warner parent Time Warner (TWX).



    Toshiba is pressing the case that because its technology is cheaper, it will more quickly become a mass-market product. According to the DVD Release Report, an industry newsletter, the suggested retail price of an HD DVD is $31.74, nearly $2 less than Blu-ray's suggested price. (Retailers traditionally cut the price to less than $29.) Toshiba also has been cutting the price of its players, slashing its entry-level machine to $299 earlier this year.



    It was price that prompted DreamWorks Animation and Paramount to throw in their lot with HD DVD earlier this summer. (Like Warner, Paramount had previously backed both formats.) "The game-changer for us was the hardware costs dramatically coming down to where it could succeed broadly for the consumer," says DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg. "In addition, the software manufacturing costs in the future would be significantly lower than Blu-ray." Of course, it didn't hurt that Toshiba agreed to pay Paramount and DreamWorks Animation a combined $150 million in incentives, including money to license DreamWorks' Shrek character for marketing purposes.



    The Blu-ray faction insists there is no burning reason for it to match HD DVD's prices. "We think Warner will respond to the fact that our greater number of titles gives us a greater likelihood of being the single standard," says Andy Parsons, who leads the Blu-ray lobbying effort. But another executive backing Blu-ray, who didn't want to be identified, expects the imminent arrival of a sub-$300 Blu-ray machine.



    What's more, Hollywood insiders say the $150 million that the Toshiba group showered on Paramount and DreamWorks Animation radically changed the game. These people suggest the Blu-ray team is so determined to win that it will throw hundreds of millions of dollars of marketing support behind Blu-ray equipment if Warner gets on board.



    Warner isn't talking, but people close to the situation say the studio is waiting to see which group sells more of the new-fangled DVD players this holiday season. "Warner wants one of the two sides to make a commitment to getting this format into as many hands as possible," says a studio executive with knowledge of its thinking.



    So far Toshiba has eked out a lead. According to industry tracker Adams Media Research, by the end of this year as many as 578,000 U.S. households will own HD DVD players, compared with 370,000 that have Blu-ray players. Adams also estimates there are 300,000 more HD DVD players in circulation inside Microsoft Xbox game consoles. But that still pales in comparison to the estimated 4 million Blu-ray-equipped Sony PlayStation 3 consoles sold in the U.S.



    The Blu-ray side has another advantage. Disney caters to families, who buy lots of older films for their kids. That could help the format build critical mass. "The Blu-ray customer is more likely to build a new library," says market researcher Richard Doherty. "Studios live for [that]."



    That leaves one question. If the Sony camp wins Warner, will the other studios ditch HD DVD? They're not saying. But Dreamworks Animation and Paramount only signed on with the Toshiba side for 18 months. So then they could take the money and run.



    ^^^Original article...my emphasis added.
  • Reply 4484 of 4650
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,839member
    First it was...



    "the Playstation 3 guarantees Blu-Ray a win!"



    Then it became...



    "More studios like the format (for its DRM) that guarantees Blu-Ray a win"



    Then it became...



    "50GB of space guarantees Blu-Ray a win"




    Now it's become...



    "Warner shifting to Blu-Ray guarantees a win"





    You've got to love Blu-Rayers, if just for their consistency.
  • Reply 4485 of 4650
    begbeg Posts: 53member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    First it was...



    "the Playstation 3 guarantees Blu-Ray a win!"



    Then it became...



    "More studios like the format (for its DRM) that guarantees Blu-Ray a win"



    Then it became...



    "50GB of space guarantees Blu-Ray a win"




    Now it's become...



    "Warner shifting to Blu-Ray guarantees a win"





    You've got to love Blu-Rayers, if just for their consistency.



    Fact: Blu-ray IS winning.



    The PS3, Disc Capacity, Studios are all part of why it is.
  • Reply 4486 of 4650
    maniamania Posts: 104member




    no one posted this yet i think
  • Reply 4487 of 4650
    julesjules Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    First it was...



    "the Playstation 3 guarantees Blu-Ray a win!"



    Then it became...



    "More studios like the format (for its DRM) that guarantees Blu-Ray a win"



    Then it became...



    "50GB of space guarantees Blu-Ray a win"




    Now it's become...



    "Warner shifting to Blu-Ray guarantees a win"





    You've got to love Blu-Rayers, if just for their consistency.



    Considering the raft of shit news for HD-DVD, I would say that blu-ray is heading for a win. Do you care to differ?



    And if so, could I suggest that you dont invest in lottery tickets any time soon.
  • Reply 4488 of 4650
    julesjules Posts: 149member
    HD DVD told: 'you're missing the boat'

    Asher Moses

    December 4, 2007 - 10:54AM



    Video Ezy and Blockbuster have thrown their support behind Blu-ray, saying HD DVD was "missing the boat" and not taking the Australian market seriously enough.



    As both high-definition disc format camps face an uphill battle convincing consumers of the benefits from upgrading their regular DVD players, in-store marketing support from retailers and rental stores is crucial.



    Paul Uniacke, managing director of the Franchise Entertainment Group, which owns Video Ezy and Blockbuster in Australia, said the local roll-out of HD DVD had been too slow as its supporters did not see Australia as an important market compared with the US and Europe.



    "Without meaning to be disrespectful, it's probably how they see this territory in terms of their bottom line," he said, adding the HD DVD side was quickly "missing the boat".



    So far neither format is dominating in Australia but, thanks to the PlayStation 3 games consoles (PS3), Blu-ray has a commanding lead. Both sides are offering bundles with free movies and slashing prices to entice Christmas shoppers - the Toshiba HD-E1 HD DVD player, after a $100 rebate, now costs $499.



    According to market-watcher GfK, 2241 stand-alone Blu-ray players have been sold in Australia to date, compared with 609 HD DVD players.



    But Sony has moved more than 100,000 units of the PS3, which has a built-in Blu-ray player. Only 2461 add-on HD DVD players for the Xbox 360, which cost $249.95, have been sold so far.



    The trend in player sales is consistent with sales of HD movies. More than 102,000 Blu-ray movies have been sold to date, as against just under 18,000 HD DVD movies.



    Uniacke said most of the 870 Blockbuster and Video Ezy stores in Australia stocked Blu-ray titles, but most did not stock HD DVD titles.



    Blockbuster in the US has supported Blu-ray exclusively for months and, locally, its head of product, John McKay, said Blockbuster would buy only Blu-ray titles "for the foreseeable future".



    In an announcement made today, Sony said 40-inch LCD televisions connected to Blu-ray players and PS3s would be installed initially in close to 250 Video Ezy and Blockbuster stores across the country to promote the format.



    Michele Garra, chairwoman of the local Blu-ray working group, said the deal was a sign that Blu-ray and high definition generally were hitting the mainstream.



    "It has really been driven by the sales of the big-screen displays ... they really are an everyman product," she said.



    Liz van Hooven, managing director of HD DVD backer Universal Pictures, acknowledged the format had been slow to take off in Australia but said Uniacke was "just making a generalised point without really knowing the future and the direction that this format is going to take".



    She said price would be the deciding factor in the format war and HD DVD players would always start at a lower price point than Blu-ray. Toshiba was set to release two new HD DVD players next year.



    Uniacke said the door was still open for HD DVD but the Blu-ray kiosks were "quite large" (1.8 metres high and 1.6 metres wide), so it was highly unlikely HD DVD kiosks could feasibly be installed as well.



    "We're not saying that we won't support HD DVD, that's for sure, but they've got a lot of catch-up work and the longer they leave it the more these deals will come across the line."



    He said his stores had faced significant difficulty when trying to obtain HD DVD movies and derided Paramount, which recently ditched Blu-ray to support HD DVD exclusively, for releasing the HD DVD version of Transformers a month behind the DVD version.



    He said the late releases were harming the format's chances in Australia significantly, but the delays weren't present in the US or European markets.



    "The momentum's gone - all of our advertising has been spent in driving the DVD [and] you're not going to put marketing dollars into something that is four weeks behind and has limited hardware [support] in this country," he said.



    By contrast, Sony Pictures released Spider-Man 3 on Blu-ray in Australia on the same day it was released on DVD.



    The Blu-ray format's early lead was helped by significant delays in bringing HD DVD players to the Australian market. Movie studios were reluctant to put discs on store shelves when the associated players were thin on the ground.



    Today, 3 HD DVD players (all Toshiba models) and 11 Blu-ray models are on sale in Australia.



    Sony said 156 Blu-ray titles had been released so far and 71 more would be out by the end of February.



    A spokesman for Toshiba, the main backer of HD DVD and co-ordinator of the local consortium of HD DVD supporters, was unavailable for comment.





    This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/...530626138.html



    By my rough calculations thats about an 83-17 split between blu-ray and HD-DVD. Low numbers but hey, sounds like HD-DVD doesn't really give a shit.
  • Reply 4489 of 4650
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mania View Post






    no one posted this yet i think





    hmm.... and 58:42 is with B1G1 Blu-Ray HDM deals?
  • Reply 4490 of 4650
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    1. Note the week-ending date. The BOGO offer is this week, not a week ago.



    2. You really should make up your mind. You always try to downplay Blu-ray's Videoscan percentage by claiming they show minimal effects from BOGO offers, while at the same time try to undermine Videoscan figures by saying they don't include Amazon (where the offers almost always ran). Either they're part of Videoscan or they're not. You can't have it both ways.
  • Reply 4491 of 4650
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    hmm... I thought Blu-Ray B1G1 promotion/sales have been going on for last two months? ( feel free the correct me, I don't follow Blu-Ray so close)



    BTW, B1G1 deal is not limited to only amazon. Amazon is just one of the shops offering B1G1 Blu-Ray HDM's. The videoscan figures to me is worthless for many reasons, but I was just quoting what was shown on the pie chart.



    At the current HDM market size, every figure is insignificant and anyone claiming victory is a fool. Still need time for HDM market to grow a little.
  • Reply 4492 of 4650
    onlookeronlooker Posts: 5,252member
    I'm just glad I picked up my PS3 in time for unreal tournament.
  • Reply 4493 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    Um...they sold HD DVD players for only ONE WEEKEND at a $99 price, and sold more that weekend than the entire previous year combined. Logic would dictate that once the sub-$99 price becomes the norm instead of a 48-hour sale, they could move as many standalone players a week as Sony does PS3s..



    Yes, and if they gave them away with every packet of Doritos they could shift even more.



    I cannot see HD-DVD manufacturers falling over themselves to produce 99 dollar HD-DVD players any time soon, anymore than Blu-Ray manufacturers.



    PS3 will be down to 199 or 99 dollars in a few years anyway, so HD-DVD better hurry up.
  • Reply 4494 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by womblingfree View Post


    Yes, and if they gave them away with every packet of Doritos they could shift even more.



    True.



    Interesting point re-illustrated over on Roughly drafted about the VALUE people perceive something has, he talks at one point about the iPhone and how, if Apple gave them away for free with a contract, they wouldn't be able to sell the iPod touch because people would think "why buy that when the iPhone is "free"? "



    I wonder how the "cheap" HD-DVD not being as valued an item psychology factor is making buyers opt for a "more expensive" and therefore "more valuable" device?



    like the old motto "buy at a high price, buy once" which is I'm sure at least a factor in the decision when one buys a Mac



    is it a factor in the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray choice?
  • Reply 4495 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    is it a factor in the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray choice?



    No. $40-$99 is what people expect to pay for a movie player, as that's what they've been paying for VCRs and DVD players for years. The thought of spending $199 to $999 on a disc player probably seems absurd to most people.
  • Reply 4496 of 4650
    onlookeronlooker Posts: 5,252member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    No. $40-$99 is what people expect to pay for a movie player, as that's what they've been paying for VCRs and DVD players for years. The thought of spending $199 to $999 on a disc player probably seems absurd to most people.



    VCR's were a pretty penny actually (£600) in the 70's when they came out, like $400.00 - $600.00 (which is like spending 1,200.00 or more today) and so were DVD players. Actually I think DVD players were a lot more than their High Def counterparts.
  • Reply 4497 of 4650
    You can bet that both the Blu-ray Disc Association and the HD DVD Promotion Group are salivating at Warner right now. Here's my take:



    If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, HD DVD is toast. Paramount/Viacom and DreamWorks Animation will want out of their HD DVD exclusive contracts, and NBC Universal will be forced to release Blu-ray Disc titles, too. Since the HD DVD install base in the US is far smaller than Blu-ray's install base (when you count PlayStation 3), any hope for saving the HD DVD format would be dead.



    If Warner goes HD DVD exclusive, Blu-ray will survive only as a gaming disc platform. All the studios, even Sony Pictures, will then go on the HD DVD bandwagon for movie releases, leaving Blu-ray as a gaming-only disc for PlayStation 3 games.



    My bet is that Warner will go Blu-ray Disc due to the larger install base... and I think that Sony, Panasonic, Philips, and other Blu-ray backers will give them a boatload of cash to drop HD DVD. But don't count out HD DVD entirely... remember, Time Warner owns several HD DVD-related patents (and I wouldn't be surprised if the Blu-ray Disc Association gives them a bunch of money to transfer the HD DVD-related patents to a third party like Samsung).
  • Reply 4498 of 4650
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Warner started as HD-DVD exclusive until Sony told Warner that PS3 will take over the world. It didn't happen after a year. It recently just passed 2.5 million PS3 units in the US in a year. What's even more interesting is that 2.5 million units of PS3 + 500K Standalone Blu-Ray player can merely lead the HDM sales, against 750K Standalone HD-DVD players, even in the insignificant HDM market size. It requires special HDM sales event like B1G1 to keep the Blu-Ray HDM sales lead.



    Of course, on the HD-DVD side, we have cheaper HD-DVD hardwares in the sub $200.



    It's interesting time for the HDM market because both HDM format supporters are not doing well as either side has projected.



    If I were to predict Warner's action towards the HDM market, Warner will stay neutral little longer and will monitor market swings more closely.



    I think the enthusiasts market will be pretty saturated by end of this year, so anyone marketing their products for the informed/advanced consumers will start pulling ahead. This is where $199 price tag plays a big roll.



    However, with current gas price & the economy conditions deteriorating may keep the HDM market in the niche for even longer time.



    Oh well.... this isn't the first niche product I've supported.
  • Reply 4499 of 4650
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,354member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    However, with current gas price & the economy conditions deteriorating may keep the HDM market in the niche for even longer time.



    Oh well.... this isn't the first niche product I've supported.





    This is the bullseye here. I walk into target and I'm seeing Blu-ray and HD DVD movies as high as 34.98. The recent best selling DVDs are 13.78. It's easy to do the math here. Neither format offers such a significant experience over DVD that consumers are willing to spend %60.



    This whole battle has been a fckn farce. Both sides are crowing about sales and eventually winning (which many in this thread suck the swill happily) but the reality is the players aren't moving unless they're giving away heaps of movies when compared to DVD sales.



    The economy is not good..housing and fuel prices have stifled alot of entertainment expenditures yet the studios blindly trudge forward with outlandish pricing thinking that low cost "razors" will suddenly make the expensive razorblades more palatable to the public. Wake up.
  • Reply 4500 of 4650
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iNtel iNside View Post


    You can bet that both the Blu-ray Disc Association and the HD DVD Promotion Group are salivating at Warner right now. Here's my take:



    If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, HD DVD is toast. Paramount/Viacom and DreamWorks Animation will want out of their HD DVD exclusive contracts, and NBC Universal will be forced to release Blu-ray Disc titles, too. Since the HD DVD install base in the US is far smaller than Blu-ray's install base (when you count PlayStation 3), any hope for saving the HD DVD format would be dead.



    If Warner goes HD DVD exclusive, Blu-ray will survive only as a gaming disc platform. All the studios, even Sony Pictures, will then go on the HD DVD bandwagon for movie releases, leaving Blu-ray as a gaming-only disc for PlayStation 3 games.



    My bet is that Warner will go Blu-ray Disc due to the larger install base... and I think that Sony, Panasonic, Philips, and other Blu-ray backers will give them a boatload of cash to drop HD DVD. But don't count out HD DVD entirely... remember, Time Warner owns several HD DVD-related patents (and I wouldn't be surprised if the Blu-ray Disc Association gives them a bunch of money to transfer the HD DVD-related patents to a third party like Samsung).



    Sounds about right. I would add though that I'd be very surprised if the successor to the xBox 360's games didn't come on 51GB HD DVD discs; I just can't see Microsoft shipping games on Sony's PS3 format of choice in 3-4 years from now. Even if they don't, it'd be a good idea for the optical drive in the next xBox to be a combo player of all formats; in the event that HD DVD goes the way of the Dodo they wouldn't be leaving their supporters out in the cold.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    The economy is not good..housing and fuel prices have stifled alot of entertainment expenditures yet the studios blindly trudge forward with outlandish pricing thinking that low cost "razors" will suddenly make the expensive razorblades more palatable to the public. Wake up.



    The studios probably perceive the HD formats as nothing more than a way to charge $10-$15 more per disc, so for them to make the discs affordable would defeat the purpose in their minds.
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