Second-gen iPhone in final phase; Apple TV update planned - report
After meeting with key component suppliers and manufacturers in Asia, researchers for investment bank Goldman Sachs said this week they believe Apple will introduce two revisions to the iPhone in 2008 -- one minor, one major -- in addition to an Apple TV overhaul during the second half of the year.
In a research note on Tuesday, analyst David Bailey advised clients that his Far Eastern contacts have lead him to believe that "Apple has several important new products lined up for 2008," though none of them are expected to pack the same punch as the company's inaugural iPhone handset.
Among them is a second-generation iPhone currently in the "final design phase," the analyst said. The handset is expected to "have a similar form factor as the current version although it could have a different look and will probably include 3G capability."
Bailey estimates that the next-gen iPhone will launch sometime during the second half of the year, but also believes the company will tie over consumers with "a smaller upgrade with more flash memory earlier in the year."
Meanwhile, the analyst's Asian contacts have also led him to believe that "Apple will be making changes to Apple TV" sometime in the second half of 2008 "which could include an LCD display."
"Apple will refresh its entire Mac line-up throughout 2008, but information about the potential launch of a subnotebook was scarce, with one supplier saying that the product may be pushed out, citing possible design issues," he added.
In general, Bailey said several of the companies he met with suggested that they were seeing higher than expected shipments of iPods this quarter, with one commenting that Apple adjusted orders upward in October during the peak holiday season manufacturing build.
"Both the iPod Touch and nano are seeing strength while iPod shuffle demand seems stable, which should cause blended average selling prices (ASPs) to come in above our $150 estimate," he wrote.
This data point appears to corroborate recent comments from CNBC's Jim Goldman, who last week cited his own sources in Asia as saying that the iPod Touch was selling "far better than expected," compelling one of the Apple's manufacturing partners to increase production to 5.1 million units for the current quarter.
For his part, Bailey added that his supply chain contacts are expecting another year of double-digit iPod growth in 2008. On the Mac side, he said, Apple?s notebook demand remains strong and should drive above-market growth for the seventh quarter in a row ? a trend that suppliers expect will continue in the new year.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $205 per share.
In a research note on Tuesday, analyst David Bailey advised clients that his Far Eastern contacts have lead him to believe that "Apple has several important new products lined up for 2008," though none of them are expected to pack the same punch as the company's inaugural iPhone handset.
Among them is a second-generation iPhone currently in the "final design phase," the analyst said. The handset is expected to "have a similar form factor as the current version although it could have a different look and will probably include 3G capability."
Bailey estimates that the next-gen iPhone will launch sometime during the second half of the year, but also believes the company will tie over consumers with "a smaller upgrade with more flash memory earlier in the year."
Meanwhile, the analyst's Asian contacts have also led him to believe that "Apple will be making changes to Apple TV" sometime in the second half of 2008 "which could include an LCD display."
"Apple will refresh its entire Mac line-up throughout 2008, but information about the potential launch of a subnotebook was scarce, with one supplier saying that the product may be pushed out, citing possible design issues," he added.
In general, Bailey said several of the companies he met with suggested that they were seeing higher than expected shipments of iPods this quarter, with one commenting that Apple adjusted orders upward in October during the peak holiday season manufacturing build.
"Both the iPod Touch and nano are seeing strength while iPod shuffle demand seems stable, which should cause blended average selling prices (ASPs) to come in above our $150 estimate," he wrote.
This data point appears to corroborate recent comments from CNBC's Jim Goldman, who last week cited his own sources in Asia as saying that the iPod Touch was selling "far better than expected," compelling one of the Apple's manufacturing partners to increase production to 5.1 million units for the current quarter.
For his part, Bailey added that his supply chain contacts are expecting another year of double-digit iPod growth in 2008. On the Mac side, he said, Apple?s notebook demand remains strong and should drive above-market growth for the seventh quarter in a row ? a trend that suppliers expect will continue in the new year.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $205 per share.
Comments
Btw, I'm first
I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.
Why should early adopters get such an upgrade? Has any cell phone company or cell phone manufacturer ever offered such a thing in the history of mankind? No. Then why should Apple?
Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.
Will all of us pioneers who got suckered into buying the 1st generation be able to get a trade-in for our lemons or a rebate like the iPhoneers?
I think Apple should concentrate on "finishing" the AppleTV before venturing in new markets. But that is just my opinion (maybe biased because I own one).
I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.
I'm pretty sure we are locked in to a contract with AT&T service - NOT with our specific model of iPhone. I'm sure we will be able to purchase new iPhones when they come out and use them for the remainder of our contract...
Unless we can sell our old iPhones for a decent amount though, it's going to get kind of pricy buying a new $400-$500 phone every year...
Since the phones are unsubsidised from AT&T, I doubt there will be an upgrade option. It's like going from a 5G iPod to an iPod touch. You have to buy the new one and hope you sell the old one.
Why should early adopters get such an upgrade? Has any cell phone company or cell phone manufacturer ever offered such a thing in the history of mankind? No. Then why should Apple?
Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.
In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.
Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone.
It works the other way around. When you buy a subsidized phone is when your contract is extended. I doubt the iPhone contract will be extended when you have to pay full price for the new phone.
Unless we can sell our old iPhones for a decent amount though, it's going to get kind of pricy buying a new $400-$500 phone every year...
[/QUOTE]
If there are still markets around the world where the iPhone hasn't been released by the time the 2nd Gen comes outm there'll be a decent market for 2nd hand ones...
I agree with you an the update. By that logic those of us that wait should get a break for being patient and waiting for the 2nd generation. </sarcasm>
Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.
Although, if there's no subsidy why do they get to lock you in? The idea of the contract (and locking the phone to a carrier) was to off-set the money used to subsidize the phone when a consumer purchased it... you don't pay now, but you do pay later. I think the reason they get to lock you in is because they can. They have iPhones, I want an iPhone... Although, in the end I think it's a little off-putting they do. As time marches on I think public opinion may force a change or at least a little more transparency.
So by "LCD" in the AppleTV I wonder if they mean: The next AppleTV will actually be a TV, or do they just mean something like a small clock/channel type display on the AppleTV?
Of all the suggestions I've seen for 'improving' ATV, adding a monitor would be about the dumbest. And the move in entertainment has been away from controls on the box itself. Seems unlikely that Apple would take a retro move like that.
Goldman Sachs, meeting with suppliers, and "could' include some sort of LCD display.
Pretty weak.
I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.
Dream on.
And the only detail they can come up with is adding a screen (which ambiguously could either mean adding a big TV screen, or just adding a little display like DVD players have...neither of which would add anything at all).
My guess is they have absolutely no aTV info at all and are just making a wild stab in the dark. It's easy to be right when you're ridiculously vague.
In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.
Works the same way in the USA too, but the iPhone isn't subsidized so you just have to pay full price, there is no "upgrade". That "certain period of time" in the USA is generally at the end of your 2 year contract, but I believe some cell phone providers will allow you to upgrade earlier if you extend your contract another 2 years.
Although, if there's no subsidy why do they get to lock you in?
To guarantee Apple and AT&T a steady profit over the lifetime of the phone I guess. From a customer's point of view its a pretty bad deal I'll agree as every other phone gets subsidized. For this reason when I got my iPhone, I also got a free phone from AT&T (I was out of contract) to sell on Ebay to "self-subsidize" the iPhone.
I believe getting an iPhone doesn't actually affect your eligibility to get a free phone in any way so many people who upgraded to an iPhone could probably do the same as I did today.
That apple TV needs to uprez standard def content into stunning HD. Even cheap DVD players do this well.
What it needs to do is be able to get it's hands on Hi-Def iTunes content to begin with. iTunes 8, anyone?
Oh....and while they're at it, why not make it be able to stream content wirelessly from your iPod Touch or iPhone?
Better yet, why not be able to use your iPod Touch or iPhone as a remote for the thing?
Wait a second...those seem like they might...just...happen
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $205 per share.
C'mon Mr. Sachs, Apple will be above $205 in less than 30 days.