Report: Apple reduces iPhone orders for second quarter

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 52
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samurai1999 View Post


    You obviously weren't paying attention during the conference call......



    Peter Oppenheimer:

    "I?ll leave the analysis to you but we?re very happy with iPhone momentum. Our customers are raving about their iPhones and we remain confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008."



    So, contrary to popular opinion, the target is 10million in CY2008

    (who'da thought?!)



    Don't worry - they'll do this anyway - once they release the 3G version!



    I don't see much point in listening to investor phone calls.



    If Jobs mispoke in his original presentation, that's fine, but I've seen it said both ways.
  • Reply 22 of 52
    shogunshogun Posts: 362member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samurai1999 View Post


    So, contrary to popular opinion, the target is 10million in CY2008

    (who'da thought?!)





    Actually this is what SJ actually said in the keynote in 07. Like many I misinterpreted until someone actually gave the Quicktime link and the time to listen. Indeed he has said from the beginning that the goal was to sell 10 Million in the calendar year 08.



    Which just makes sense when you consider that he also said 1% of the cellphone market of pieces sold. Those market numbers are yearly. To get 1% of an annual number you need an annual number.
  • Reply 23 of 52
    Here's another article that with a serious negative speculation based on partial facts - I guess most online publications prefer to hype the pessimism to go with the spirit of the day...



    There may be some truth behind this article that Apple may have cut orders for iPhone or some iPhone component by half. A remote possibility is that Apple expects a sudden 50% drop in the sales of iPhone. However, there are two more likely scenarios:



    1. Apple may have found an alternate source for the component or is ramping up an alternate manufacturer. As the unit volumes ramp up, it is unreasonable to expect Apple to use a single manufacturer or a single sourced component. The article actually alludes to this in the last paragraph.



    2. The other possibility is that Apple is getting ready to ramp up production on a new model (as pointed out earlier in this thread). It looks like Broadcom's 3G chipset is ready to go. The slow data rate being the one obvious deficiency of the iPhone, I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple accelerating the 3G iPhone schedule to hit the market earlier.
  • Reply 24 of 52
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samurai1999 View Post


    "I?ll leave the analysis to you but we?re very happy with iPhone momentum. Our customers are raving about their iPhones and we remain confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008."



    That could also be interpreted that he wants to sell his 10 millionth iPhone in 2008.
  • Reply 25 of 52
    As someone else put it: "Mac-Users don't take shit". Now add this to the fact that here in Europe, there's a far better infrastructure (3G), and you have your perfect reason. This is why I bought an iPod touch yesterday, and didn't wait for an iPhone.



    Give us an 3G iPhone, and I'll buy it, no matter the carrier.
  • Reply 26 of 52
    rolorolo Posts: 686member
    File this under Duh! One would expect post-holiday sales to decline somewhat. I'm only expecting about 1.6m iPhones to be sold this quarter which means a slow decline in the run rate. The rate should be even lower in the first 2 months of next quarter ahead of the 3G iPhone.



    One thing that could help sales, starting in March, is the release of the iPhone SDK around the end of February. As new apps show up, the iPhone will become even more desirable. These apps should also work on the iPod touch.
  • Reply 27 of 52
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rolo View Post


    One thing that could help sales, starting in March, is the release of the iPhone SDK around the end of February. As new apps show up, the iPhone will become even more desirable. These apps should also work on the iPod touch.



    I would expect a 3G iPhone to move 1M units a month in Europe alone, and another 1M in the States.
  • Reply 28 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rolo View Post


    One thing that could help sales, starting in March, is the release of the iPhone SDK around the end of February. As new apps show up, the iPhone will become even more desirable. These apps should also work on the iPod touch.



    The only apps I would expect to see after one month of SDK release would be widget-class apps (and maybe some heirloom jail-break apps). Any game-changing killer app would take six-twelve months, and then only a 1.0 version. Think more like two years for a robust app on a robust v 2.0 hardware (or v 3.0 hardware).
  • Reply 29 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    They've already sold four million, and sold 2.5 million last quarter. Even if they only sell 1.5 million a quarter, they can hit the projection. There are suggestions by Apple and AT&T that the 3G model will be available this year too.





    Apparently the 10 million goal is for calendar year 2008, according to the Apple execs at the recent earnings conference call (I caught the transcript on Seeking Alpha).



    So the 2007 results don't count towards that, sadly...



    .
  • Reply 30 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Slow European sales have caused Apple to reduce its iPhone shipment expectations for the second fiscal quarter ending March by as much as 50 percent, according to published report.





    What did I tell ya, Teno? You may now refer to me as your own personal Nostradamus (with apologies to Depeche Mode).



    I still think Apple can turn the Euro situation around decisively, if they address their feature set and pricing issues over there in a timely manner. Its not like the Europeans don't want something as spectacular as the iPhone, but they're not willing to give up certain 'dealbreaker' features and pay through the nose to do so. \





    .
  • Reply 31 of 52
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Apparently the 10 million goal is for calendar year 2008, according to the Apple execs at the recent earnings conference call (I caught the transcript on Seeking Alpha).



    So the 2007 results don't count towards that, sadly...



    As I stated before, that could also be construed to mean a total of 10M sometime in 2008. Plus, we know from Sun's CEO stating that ZFS will be teh default filesystem in Leopard that execs do make make mistakes. I'll need more evidence before I believe that Apple meant "10M iPhones must be sold in the calendar year of 2008 " while completely discounting its impressive 2007 numbers.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    I still think Apple can turn the Euro situation around decisively, if they address their feature set and pricing issues over there in a timely manner. Its not like the Europeans don't want something as spectacular as the iPhone, but they're not willing to give up certain 'dealbreaker' features and pay through the nose to do so. \



    I say keep the price where it is and release a 3G version within the next 5 months. If you build it they will come.
  • Reply 32 of 52
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Apparently the 10 million goal is for calendar year 2008, according to the Apple execs at the recent earnings conference call (I caught the transcript on Seeking Alpha).



    So the 2007 results don't count towards that, sadly...



    .



    You can't have only one phone and expect to stay hot and sell 10MIL. Just ask Verizon and their RAZR. Apple needs to come out with more than one version of the iPhone and some cheaper versions as well and fast or else watch that stock stay low or decline more. The cellphone business is very different and much more fickle than both computers and MP3s. Add to that a bad economy -the average consumer is just not going to buy a new $400 phone- no way. Not when you can renew your contract with your present carrier and get a decent phone for $50. I am talking about the average consumer now- not AAPL stockholders.
  • Reply 33 of 52
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    I'm not so sure. I think the success of the iPhone is almost completely dependent on the SDK being released next month. That will either make or break it as a "platform" instead of a one-off stunt.



    The SDK is very important there is no doubt there. Frankly I won't buy an iPhone as long as that issue is up in the air. But I have to point out there is a difference between the iPhone as a platform and the iphone as a smart phone. It is pretty obvious that the iPhone does well as a smart phone. What it will do as a platform remains to be seen.

    Quote:

    If they release an SDK that is nothing more than Dashboard widgets, the iPhone is probably doomed.



    Well I tend to disagree as a good portion of the user base would simply wait for Apple to deliver the apps they want. Anyhow if it has taken them this long to get out Dashboard type Widgets then Apple is doomed as a company. The SDK would provide more than that other wise it would be out already.

    Quote:

    If they release a sandboxed Cocoa with Objective-C, Python, JavaScript, and dare I ask for Java then the iPhone (and iPod Touch) become the next Big Thing and start cannibalizing MacBook Air sales (that's a good thing, IMHO).



    First; off you used the word "cannibalizing" which, as far as I'm concerned demonstrates ignorance about business. Hopefully in the near future AI will start filtering posts using that word. Second; Java is not any more useful on small devices like this than Terex truck is useful to a kid in a sandbox. Third; Air is due for an untimely death simply because of what it is. Apple will either be forced to update it or scrap it.



    Dave
  • Reply 34 of 52
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macshark View Post


    ................It looks like Broadcom's 3G chipset is ready to go. The slow data rate being the one obvious deficiency of the iPhone, I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple accelerating the 3G iPhone schedule to hit the market earlier.



    If Apple does indeed go with the Broadcom chip set iPhone 2 will be very impressive! That is if they leverage the hardware completely. Problem is they have yet to do that on iPhone 1. I've yet to see any indication that the Bluetooth stack is any more complete for example.



    It may be unwarranted but I'm starting to think that Apple just doesn't have enough resources applied to the iPhone team to remain competitive in the market place. There are a couple of issues here one of which is the lack of a real model line up. I can understand iPhone 2 not being ready but where the hell is the low end phone. Second where are the hardware updates to the current iPhone. I'm primarily talking Flash here. I don't really care about edge nor 3G, but I do care about the other features of the machine, so where are the 16 & 32 GB models?



    Dave
  • Reply 35 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    As I stated before, that could also be construed to mean a total of 10M sometime in 2008. Plus, we know from Sun's CEO stating that ZFS will be teh default filesystem in Leopard that execs do make make mistakes. I'll need more evidence before I believe that Apple meant "10M iPhones must be sold in the calendar year of 2008 " while completely discounting its impressive 2007 numbers.





    I dunno Teno... seems pretty clear, unless they're being intentionally misleading. Its possible, I admit:





    Peter Oppenheimer [Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Apple]:



    I’ll leave the analysis to you but we’re very happy with iPhone momentum. Our customers are raving about their iPhones and we remain confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008.




    http://seekingalpha.com/article/6111...e=yahoo&page=8



    Timothy D. Cook [Chief Operating Officer]

    We don’t talk about new products but we are very confident in meeting the 10 million for the year of 2008.




    Timothy D. Cook [COO]

    We’ve very confident in meeting the 10 million for 2008.



    http://seekingalpha.com/article/6111...e=yahoo&page=9





    By the by, the 2007 numbers... not that impressive. They've sold 4 million in 6 1/2 months (Stevie included the two weeks before MWSF in his numbers).



    At that pace, they miss their 10 million goal, since its for a 12-month time period.







    Quote:

    I say keep the price where it is and release a 3G version within the next 5 months. If you build it they will come.



    I dunno... for one thing, the iPhone is more expensive in Europe than it is the in US. For another, the competition is just plain fiercer over there, phone-wise. 3G alone will certainly help (as would MMS), but will it be enough?



    What do the Euro folks on this board think?



    .
  • Reply 36 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    You can't have only one phone and expect to stay hot and sell 10MIL. Just ask Verizon and their RAZR. Apple needs to come out with more than one version of the iPhone and some cheaper versions as well and fast or else watch that stock stay low or decline more. The cellphone business is very different and much more fickle than both computers and MP3s. Add to that a bad economy -the average consumer is just not going to buy a new $400 phone- no way. Not when you can renew your contract with your present carrier and get a decent phone for $50. I am talking about the average consumer now- not AAPL stockholders.





    A little hard to say how you get a wider lineup of iPhones, though.



    For example, a lot of ppl say "build an iPhone Nano!!" But... why would you decrease the screen size on a device whose primary differentiator versus other smartphones is how great it works as an internet browsing device? The iPhone is not vastly superior as a phone, and as far as the iPod part goes, a lot of ppl have iPods already and are quite happy with them.



    About the only good differentiator I can think of is capacity. They obviously need a 16GB iPhone. So when 3G comes, there should be an 8GB model and a 16GB one. Not a true 'lineup', of course, but it lets you hit two different price points (like they did before with 4GB and 8GB). And not everyone is going to be a power user of the 'iPod' part of the iPhone, after all.



    .
  • Reply 37 of 52
    dpmdpm Posts: 1member
    Well, perhaps if a iphone was available in Canada the numbers may be better.\
  • Reply 38 of 52
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    A little hard to say how you get a wider lineup of iPhones, though.



    For example, a lot of ppl say "build an iPhone Nano!!" But... why would you decrease the screen size on a device whose primary differentiator versus other smartphones is how great it works as an internet browsing device? The iPhone is not vastly superior as a phone, and as far as the iPod part goes, a lot of ppl have iPods already and are quite happy with them.



    About the only good differentiator I can think of is capacity. They obviously need a 16GB iPhone. So when 3G comes, there should be an 8GB model and a 16GB one. Not a true 'lineup', of course, but it lets you hit two different price points. And not everyone is going to be a power user of the 'iPod' part of the iPhone, after all.



    .



    I concur. The iPhone was great at replacing a phone and iPod with one device that could also do mail and internet expertly.



    i don't want a small screen or physical numbers on an iPhone. Then I'd have to get a touch to have the same capabilities I have now. I so want an improved iPhone with 3G and 16GB SSD. Screw GPS! I don't see how it couldn't sell if it had 3G.



    How long after the SDK comes out should we have MMS?
  • Reply 39 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macshark View Post


    Here's another article that with a serious negative speculation based on partial facts - I guess most online publications prefer to hype the pessimism to go with the spirit of the day...



    There may be some truth behind this article that Apple may have cut orders for iPhone or some iPhone component by half. A remote possibility is that Apple expects a sudden 50% drop in the sales of iPhone. However, there are two more likely scenarios:



    1. Apple may have found an alternate source for the component or is ramping up an alternate manufacturer. As the unit volumes ramp up, it is unreasonable to expect Apple to use a single manufacturer or a single sourced component. The article actually alludes to this in the last paragraph.



    2. The other possibility is that Apple is getting ready to ramp up production on a new model (as pointed out earlier in this thread). It looks like Broadcom's 3G chipset is ready to go. The slow data rate being the one obvious deficiency of the iPhone, I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple accelerating the 3G iPhone schedule to hit the market earlier.





    I dunno... the fact that the top Apple execs at the earnings conference call this week didn't break out Euro iPhone sales at all leads me (and most anyone else who parses 'corporate speak') to believe that things are going just as dismally over there as has been reported. \



    When a company says "we're very happy" with our Euro sales, and then provides no figures to back them up at all, well, you get the gist. If they were doing well over there they'd say how many they've sold, and crow about it.



    What's going is that Euro sales are slow, and US sales will slow, since calendar Q1 is slower than the holiday quarter, and the US is very likely heading into what should be a doozy of a recession. \



    .
  • Reply 40 of 52
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dpm View Post


    Well, perhaps if a iphone was available in Canada the numbers may be better.\





    Couldn't 'hoit'. Especially now that Canadian money is actually worth something. Never thought I'd see the day when the Canuck buck was worth as much as the USD.





    .
Sign In or Register to comment.