Morgan Stanley: 40% of college students plan to buy Macs

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  • Reply 21 of 95
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    The Linux adoption was due to the Winblows Server OS sucking horribly during that time period (and it still does), NOT because of Linux adoption by consumers for home use as this article implies. Linux for home use has remained constant over the years.
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  • Reply 22 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    Funny, I know a couple of families that between them, over the years since the mid '80s, had 10 Apple computers/laptops. And they are middle class. So your point being?! \



    Either your definition of middle class is off, or those middle class families are very good at saving money and making good purchasing decisions.



    Either way, the OP's point remains valid IMO. There's no way 40% of college grads can afford a Mac in their budgets. Rent, beer money, cars and loan payments all take precedent, and a PC will be purchased. Path of least resistance. $400 Dell that includes a 19 inch flat screen, or a $1100 iMac. $700 buys a lot of beer.
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  • Reply 23 of 95
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zunx View Post


    The guys at Redmond may be a bit nervous. The day Mac OS X reaches 25% worldwide market share, Windows will be wiped out from planet Earth in about three years. Windows is only maintained by ignorance and inertia.



    Maybe for home use, but the inertia of corporate IT departments is glacial. It will take 10 years from the point at which we reach a 25% home adoption rate to reach the same percentage in mainstream (ie. large companies) corporate america.
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  • Reply 24 of 95
    walshbjwalshbj Posts: 864member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    Maybe for home use, but the inertia of corporate IT departments is glacial. It will take 10 years from the point at which we reach a 25% home adoption rate to reach the same percentage in mainstream (ie. large companies) corporate america.



    That may be true, but glacial isn't what it used to be. I think the cloud computing evolution could lead to faster change.
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  • Reply 25 of 95
    davidwdavidw Posts: 2,183member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Either your definition of middle class is off, or those middle class families are very good at saving money and making good purchasing decisions.



    Either way, the OP's point remains valid IMO. There's no way 40% of college grads can afford a Mac in their budgets. Rent, beer money, cars and loan payments all take precedent, and a PC will be purchased. Path of least resistance. $400 Dell that includes a 19 inch flat screen, or a $1100 iMac. $700 buys a lot of beer.





    You're out of touch with reality. Laptops are now outselling desktops. And in the college world, laptops are a must. Most college grads buy laptops. No one shows up on campus lugging a $400 Dell with a 19" LCD. They'll never make it from one class to another lugging that thing around campus. They all have $1000.00 plus laptops. Laptops are a requirement in most colleges. So your point about college grads not being able to afford a Mac is of no merit. Not when a majority of college grads already own a laptop that cost as much or more than a Mac laptop.
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  • Reply 26 of 95
    buzdotsbuzdots Posts: 452member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


    They all have $1000.00 plus laptops. Laptops are a requirement in most colleges. So your point about college grads not being able to afford a Mac is of no merit. Not when a majority of college grads already own a laptop that cost as much or more than a Mac laptop.



    Well put. Most kids going into college have saved up and bought the laptop that is going to last them thru at least 4 years of hard use (or dear 'ol Dad bought it for them) High school grads and their parents are computer savvy now, and most have been bitten by the cheap computer purchase somewhere along the line.



    They are NOT buying the basic 12 inch bricks of yesteryear. As a matter of fact I was amazed a couple of years ago to see how many 17" MacBook Pros were being toted around campus.



    The universities are expecting the students machines to be able to handle server hosted software that runs the full gamut of apps.
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  • Reply 27 of 95
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by palomine View Post


    I'm telling family, no more computer help unless it's a Mac!



    DigitalClips and I have expressed the same sentiment.
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  • Reply 28 of 95
    davidwdavidw Posts: 2,183member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xtrmtrk View Post


    I love Apple the company and the products and I really really want them to succeed (I still own AAPL I bought in 1981) but...



    Apple tried this in the 80's with the original Macintosh and it failed miserably. Remember Apple University? They had 100% coverage of some of America's biggest and best schools - Stanford, Michigan, Dartmouth, etc. And it got them NOWHERE. These students graduated and bought millions of cheaper PCs for their businesses.



    We all do lots of things in college that we leave behind on graduation.



    Apple failed in the 80s' because they were marketing a "Personal Computer". And back then, there was no really good reason for anyone to own a "Personal Computer". No MP3 players. No digital cameras. No cell phones. No Internet. People that own "Personal Computers" back then either needed them for work, gamers or just "geeks". To most a "Personal Computer" was just an expensive typewriter. Most (nearly all) games were for PCs'. "Geeks" enjoyed PCs' because they were easily upgradable. IBM controlled the business world back then. The saying among IT people back then was "No one ever got fired for choosing IBM. So a work computer for the home was most likely going to be a PC. But in the mid 90s', the Internet changed all of this. Now a "Personal Computer" in the home is as common as a radio or television. Grads will be buying computers for their own "personal" needs. Whether it be for work, manage songs for MP3 players, digital photos from digital camers, calenders and address for cell phones or just to get on the Interent. And it no longer (for most) matters whether you use Windows or OSX. But the smart choice is a Mac because it can do both. So, so long as these grads don't leave their education behind when they graduate, Apple (and AAPL) will do just fine.
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  • Reply 29 of 95
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Either your definition of middle class is off, or those middle class families are very good at saving money and making good purchasing decisions.



    Either way, the OP's point remains valid IMO. There's no way 40% of college grads can afford a Mac in their budgets. Rent, beer money, cars and loan payments all take precedent, and a PC will be purchased. Path of least resistance. $400 Dell that includes a 19 inch flat screen, or a $1100 iMac. $700 buys a lot of beer.



    $700 for beer isn't a lot over 2?3 years. The cost of notebooks is down over years past and the performance and capacity is high enough that it can easily be a desktop replacement. This is why we are seeing this trend to portables. When you consider the total cost of college a decent notebook is a drop in the bucket.



    Not to mention the benefit one gets form having a decent tool to study with. While you can get a $400 notebook, they are not machines that facilitate learning, but that may mainly be due to it running Vista with all the OEM software pre-installed. Still, most people don't go tot eh trouble to remove that stuff.
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  • Reply 30 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Yeah, all these percentages look great (and I am sure if you surveyed undergrads in the 1990s, you'd have found a qualitatively similar result), but when these folks hit the corporate world, a significant proportion will succumb to reality (in the form of "comfort factor" and "switching costs").



    No one expects Apple's marketshare in business to jump like that right away.



    I suspect that it would move slowly. First of all because these new people would be at the bottom of the ladder, and so have, for the most part, little influence.



    But, over time, as they moved up, their ability to demand what they want would grow as well.



    Secondly, because Apple still doesn't conform to what large corporations need from a manufacturer. We will see wins on smaller scales at first. if Apple, at some time, decides that they are big enough to concentrate on large corporate and government customers, they might go for it.



    Hopefully, the move into corporate they are attempting now with the phone product, is a toe in the water.
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  • Reply 31 of 95
    zanshinzanshin Posts: 350member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Yeah, all these percentages look great (and I am sure if you surveyed undergrads in the 1990s, you'd have found a qualitatively similar result), but when these folks hit the corporate world, a significant proportion will succumb to reality (in the form of "comfort factor" and "switching costs").



    There were never this many Mac users in universities in the 90s -- Mac desktops cost multiple thousands then for low-speed IIci models, etc., and even a greyscale PowerBook Duo 210 cost more than most parents could pop for instead of the Tandy, or Packard-Bell trash that was more common. The move to iMacs and MacBooks is because of the low-cost processing power coupled with the cool looks and simple, friendly apps they're already used to at home, and the iPod halo effect to a large degree.



    When they hit the offices, some conform, but a lot of others are balking and demanding tools they want to use, not just have to use.



    Welcome to the time of the Millennium Workers! They want near-constant feedback from supervisors, they want explicit work instructions, and they want to be rewarded publicly for their methodical and typically mediocre performance (just like on the soccer fields where as kids, everyone gets a trophy, and score is not kept).



    We're already seeing people who'd rather bring in their own MacBooks than work on the IT El Cheapo Win-PCs. And when you get someone who can really do good work on their Mac and others are doing only average work on a PC, bosses are noticing, and the boardrooms are having the discussions about the high cost of maintaining low-productivity computers and applications.



    Gotta love it!
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  • Reply 32 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xtrmtrk View Post


    I love Apple the company and the products and I really really want them to succeed (I still own AAPL I bought in 1981) but...



    Apple tried this in the 80's with the original Macintosh and it failed miserably. Remember Apple University? They had 100% coverage of some of America's biggest and best schools - Stanford, Michigan, Dartmouth, etc. And it got them NOWHERE. These students graduated and bought millions of cheaper PCs for their businesses.



    We all do lots of things in college that we leave behind on graduation.



    Apple is a very different company, and the world is a very different place.



    I wouldn't think on the history too much.



    Apple is now widely known, and has different products that many people enjoy. This wasn't true back then.



    Back then, most of Apple's sales were in education and the various arts and publishing industries. Consumers weren't a very big business, and so few people were familiar with them.



    Also, most Apple's in education were in K-12, and were Apple II's.



    Right now, in many corporations, it's the big fish demanding Macs, and the power users. That's top down demand, even though it doesn't move to large scale because of other problems Apple must fix in its corporate positioning.



    And, we're seeing PC magazines, and sites, giving Apple products reviews as good as, and even better than PC products. I've not seen one review that didn't say that OS X wasn't a better product than Windows, and that includes industry mags such as Computerworld and Infoworld.



    Moving to the x86 line was a major plus, despite that many of us hated the idea. We can see that it worked out very well. Who even thinks of the PPC any more, unless one still has an old one?



    That was never true in the past. It was always grudging, if at all.
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  • Reply 33 of 95
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Secondly, because Apple still doesn't conform to what large corporations need from a manufacturer. We will see wins on smaller scales at first. if Apple, at some time, decides that they are big enough to concentrate on large corporate and government customers, they might go for it.



    Hopefully, the move into corporate they are attempting now with the phone product, is a toe in the water.



    I've been thinking about this. Apple is getting to a point that it could start focusing on corporate, but they are not in a position to be agreeable with most corporate policies.



    Could they create a new line of desktops that are sold only in bulk to corporations, perhaps as a lease? Could they start up clones again, but only if they are sold to businesses? I don't see an easy answer for Apple to maintain their modus operandi and satisfy businesses enough for them to make the leap.





    PS: What is the most you spent for a personal computer and in what year was it? Open question to all because people seem to think $1000 for notebook in 2008 seems to be excessive for some.



    The most I paid for a notebook is $5000 for Compaq around 1998. It was charcoal when most we're beige, and was slim for it's time, though it came with an external CD Drive, though it wasn't a big deal at the time. I think the floppy was external via parallel port, but I don't recall. The keyboard also raised up and spread out when the lid was open and I think it had a whooping 4GB HDD. I was in college and used part of my student loan for it. I also used part of student load for investing; not a bad way to go, IMO.
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  • Reply 34 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


    You're out of touch with reality. Laptops are now outselling desktops. And in the college world, laptops are a must. Most college grads buy laptops. No one shows up on campus lugging a $400 Dell with a 19" LCD. They'll never make it from one class to another lugging that thing around campus. They all have $1000.00 plus laptops. Laptops are a requirement in most colleges. So your point about college grads not being able to afford a Mac is of no merit. Not when a majority of college grads already own a laptop that cost as much or more than a Mac laptop.



    That's just not true. PARENTS are buying the college laptops, or they are being paid for by college loans. When you graduate, and have to start paying those loans, and buying your food, and paying the rent, etc etc etc, the cost of a high end laptop becomes prohibitive. Plus, the NEED for one largely goes POOF... when you're at college, you are up and about all the time. In the "real world" you have a work computer and you come home and are much less likely to need a portable computer.



    I'm 28, not far from college. I live in an area with TONS of young people. I have tenants who are around 25 years old. These people do NOT spend that kind of money on a computer that soon out of college. This is in the DC area, and these people pay me over $1200 a month for rent. This is EXACTLY the kind of market Apple will eventually sell to, but not right out of college.



    My point is, asking a college kid "what brand will your next laptop be"? is not a good indicator of what they will actually buy. It's a great indicator of what they WANT to buy, and that's awesome for Apple, but it's not going to translate into 40% market share of those users polled in a few years. No chance.
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  • Reply 35 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Either your definition of middle class is off, or those middle class families are very good at saving money and making good purchasing decisions.



    Either way, the OP's point remains valid IMO. There's no way 40% of college grads can afford a Mac in their budgets. Rent, beer money, cars and loan payments all take precedent, and a PC will be purchased. Path of least resistance. $400 Dell that includes a 19 inch flat screen, or a $1100 iMac. $700 buys a lot of beer.



    You'd be surprised. First of all, most computers for college students are bough by their parents. Secondly, many universities have programs that sell the machines at some discount.



    Macbooks are no where out of range for college students. You forget that not so long ago even PC laptops hovered in the $1,00o range for the cheapest machines. Take inflation into account, and they cost as much as a Macbook.
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  • Reply 36 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You'd be surprised. First of all, most computers for college students are bough by their parents. Secondly, many universities have programs that sell the machines at some discount.



    Macbooks are no where out of range for college students. You forget that not so long ago even PC laptops hovered in the $1,00o range for the cheapest machines. Take inflation into account, and they cost as much as a Macbook.



    It seems that there is some confusion over what this survey says.



    To me, the question of what the NEXT computer a college student will buy means what will they buy when the graduate, typically. I agree fully that most college computers are bought by parents, which is precisely why they are typically nicer computers than the broader market for laptops.



    When you graduate you have FAR less justification for spending 2-3X the money on a laptop that you will use FAR less often than you did in college.



    There's no right or wrong answer, we're arguing about the future behavior of people we don't know. But just try to avoid letting what you WANT to happen intrude on what your mind tells you will happen in real life.
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  • Reply 37 of 95
    buzdotsbuzdots Posts: 452member
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  • Reply 38 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I've been thinking about this. Apple is getting to a point that it could start focusing on corporate, but they are not in a position to be agreeable with most corporate policies.



    Could they create a new line of desktops that are sold only in bulk to corporations, perhaps as a lease? Could they start up clones again, but only if they are sold to businesses? I don't see an easy answer for Apple to maintain their modus operandi and satisfy businesses enough for them to make the leap.



    YES! This is exactly what I've been saying. Apple could easily have a line of corporate machines, for which they would, under non-disclosure, as other companies do, give the required roadmaps. They already give us hints as to when the new OS upgrades will come out, so thats no biggie. They also give us an idea as to what we can expect to see it them. They could give big customers some more info, also under non-disclosure.



    In addition, Apple must conform to what most corporations do in purchasing. They often have three year plans in which they pre-order a specified number of machines, then take possession of one third each year under the contract. All of those machines are exactly the same, down to the last screw. This is something Apple hasn't been doing. I know some here don't think this is true, but it is.



    Quote:

    PS: What is the most you spent for a personal computer and in what year was it? Open question to all because people seem to think $1000 for notebook in 2008 seems to be excessive for some.



    The most I ever spent for a computer for personal use was for my 950 back in early 1992, I think it was, whenever it first came out, as I had it on backorder.



    Here was the pricing:



    $6,000 for the basic computer with 8 MB of Apple installed RAM, 230 MB HDD, 1MB internal Video RAM, and one 5.25" floppy.



    To that I added:



    58 MB RAM for about $3,500.



    One 500 MB HDD for $750.



    One Apple Pro Keyboard for $189.



    One NEC 21" Pro Multisync monitor for $3,150.



    One Radius Graphics card for $3,750.



    One 12" x 18" graphics tablet from Wacom for $1,200.



    And, one Toshiba 2x speed CD player, at $550, for which I had to machine the case, as there was no way to mount it at the time. I was the first in N. America, at least, to have an internal CD player in a Mac, maybe in anything!



    To get an idea of today's pricing, multiply the prices by 150.47%.



    That's from this simple, but very useful page, updated at the end of each year:



    http://www.westegg.com/inflation/



    Quote:

    The most I paid for a notebook is $5000 for Compaq around 1998. It was charcoal when most we're beige, and was slim for it's time, though it came with an external CD Drive, though it wasn't a big deal at the time. I think the floppy was external via parallel port, but I don't recall. The keyboard also raised up and spread out when the lid was open and I think it had a whooping 4GB HDD. I was in college and used part of my student loan for it. I also used part of student load for investing; not a bad way to go, IMO.



    Prices have dropped a bundle over the years. People don't appreciate just how much things used to cost, but they complain about today's prices anyway.



    I remember sometime in the mid '80's when the first "affordable" to artists 24 bit board and monitor came out. It was only for the Mac, of course, as all these were back then.



    The board was a Radius, and I don't remember who made the monitor, but it was either a Radius (I don't remember if they made monitors that early), or a SuperMac 17" running at 1024 x 768.



    The combo sold for $24,995.



    Understand, this was considered to be affordable to the working professional artist! With inflation, again added, today that would cost about (as I don't remember the year, so I'm giving an approx) $45,000.



    Affordable to the professional artist!!
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  • Reply 39 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    It seems that there is some confusion over what this survey says.



    To me, the question of what the NEXT computer a college student will buy means what will they buy when the graduate, typically. I agree fully that most college computers are bought by parents, which is precisely why they are typically nicer computers than the broader market for laptops.



    When you graduate you have FAR less justification for spending 2-3X the money on a laptop that you will use FAR less often than you did in college.



    There's no right or wrong answer, we're arguing about the future behavior of people we don't know. But just try to avoid letting what you WANT to happen intrude on what your mind tells you will happen in real life.



    They aren't saying anything about after they graduate. Many college students I know through their parents, buy two laptops while in college. The first lasts two to three years, then they buy a second (or their parents do).



    I know real life pretty well, I've lived 58 years of it, and computers have been a very big part of my professional career.



    Just who do you think bought the 7+ million Macs last year? Who do you think is buying the 9 million or so this year?
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  • Reply 40 of 95
    buzdotsbuzdots Posts: 452member
    Mel, You and I may be the old farts in this crowd...



    As far as "the spread" goes, the most expensive computer I have owned was a USED 1987 Mac SE with dual floppy drives running at a blistering 8MHz and some extra RAM and an Apple Laser printer. I paid 2500.00 for the SE and "stole" the laser printer for $3000.00
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