I welcome the new iPhone business model Apple is putting in place - well done Apple!
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
I and others chastised Apple vigorously over their greed-based model and we were criticised vigorously for our sour grapes attitude and were told Apple were not interested in the mass-market for phones, they were only interested in the cream on top and that they could be hugely profitable by just dominating the premium phone sector. These same people argued that the revenue sharing model was just brilliant for Apple shareholders because it was going to generate the maximum profits possible from the iPhone platform and was nothing less than further indication of Apple's infallible genius at work.
version iphone v1 was a work in progress to test the waters, i think with the unlocking going on and how much people are willing to pay for an unlocked phone this got SJ's attention AND the revenue from the 3rd party apps may replace the version 1 business model. so to build loyalty carriers will subsidize the iphone, unlocked iphones will cost MORE and revenue sharing will be with some carriers and with 3rd party apps, covering a lot of bases. each country seems to be dealt with a way to maximize revenue for apple and to keep customers from unlocking and using the phones on another network seems it's a win win for SJ and carriers.
iphone v1 sure did keep the hype up and showed those carriers that were hesitant about adding NEW USERS how much they could grow. as i said in past posts it costs the carrier's a ton to get a customer to switch, iphone makes it much much easier.
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
Euro prices was too high imho, but nothing wrong with US ones.
...I am going to crunch some numbers later, but I would guess that with my simple method of also counting "potential switchers", the "addressable market" for the iPhone would increase by at least 50% ~500 million cited.
Again, yeah, I am leaning towards this approach. Basically iPhone 2nd half 2008, and particularly, 2009, any number of calculations, we are looking at a fricking massive number. Massive. The number of people using and from developing nations, will use, mobile phones, is just unbelievably massive. India, China, Africa, all the "higher tier" developing countries like those in South East Asia, etc........ Let's just say the natural limitations of iPhone growth is simply Apple's ability to cope with global demand.
The most important thing is not for Apple to go OMFG LETS MAKE TEH TRILLIONS MORE!!! W00t and then unsustainably grow the company. We've all seen what happens in these situations, I'm sure.
I'm going to be more radical here and propose that the only measure of addressable market going forward is not who will buy and how much, but what is the capacity of Apple, Inc. to grow, deal with, and meet global demand. That is the true key in the economics of this enterprise, IMHO.
I welcome the new iPhone business model Apple is putting in place - well done Apple!
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
I and others chastised Apple vigorously over their greed-based model and we were criticised vigorously for our sour grapes attitude and were told Apple were not interested in the mass-market for phones, they were only interested in the cream on top and that they could be hugely profitable by just dominating the premium phone sector. These same people argued that the revenue sharing model was just brilliant for Apple shareholders because it was going to generate the maximum profits possible from the iPhone platform and was nothing less than further indication of Apple's infallible genius at work.
Oh my, how things have changed
Apple may have been greedy, but they were also incredibly conservative. They needed to spread the risk of this really new, un-Apple, massive (you can tell I like this word) switch of the company from computers to "intarweb mobility devices".
No matter how lucrative carrier contracts may be, their new strategy for iPhone now will give them multiples of profit more. Whatever pro-carrier-locking advocates there have been in Apple management, even they can't ignore the huge demand at their feet any longer.
Again, mass market of phones is not the problem, I will reiterate: the problem is how is the company going to deal with huge global demand of all their products across the world over the next few years. Supply chain and inventory is of course, important. Knowledgeable staff and enthusiasts is important. Tech support and service will be slammed hard (simply because of huge numbers of units). Company growth will need to be managed.
Well, I don't doubt its possible to make a phone capable of operating in all the bands, but it would most likely add a lot to the cost of the radio chips.
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?
Notice that this deal cancels the exclusivity arrangement that was in place with Austria with T-Mobile.
Will other currently exclusive markets be going multi-carrier as well?
Since no one other than Apple and at&t apparently know the length of their current agreement, perhaps these new deals signal the impending end of their agreement in the US, leading to multiple carrier choice and an assured 10 million iPhone sales IN 2008! One can only hope...
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?
Are we to expect Bands I, II, V and VIII in the iPhone? Does that correspond with the rumoured radio that is to be included?
Thats a good question I didn't think about. In my post I was talking about a radio that could do ALL the bands from both CDMA and UMTS. For Apple covering all of these countries, I imagine they would want to have universal UMTS radio. I don't know a lot about this, but here are the bands in use although I don't know which bands the companies use that have announced iPhone availability.
2100 (downlink) / 1900 (uplink) for Japan, Europe, Brazil and Asia
1900 / 850 (independently, for both the uplink and downlink) for Americas (US, Canada, Latin America and Brazil) (e.g. AT&T Mobility and Rogers Wireless)
* 2100 (downlink) / 1700 (uplink) for America (e.g. T-Mobile USA)
* 800 for Japan (NTT DoCoMo in rural areas)
850 for Australia (Telstra NextG)
900 (Europe, Asia, Oceania)
So, assuming AT&T exclusivity remains and since T-mobile doesn't even have their 3G network running yet, we can remove T-Mobile from the list and and get rid of the 1700mhz band. Also if NTT DoCoMo is not a carrier or if they are but don't need compatibility for the 800mhz part of their network, then we can remove 800mhz support too. That leaves only four frequencies: 850Mhz, 900Mhz, 1900Mhz, 2100Mhz to support. I assume they probably make or can make quad-band chips for these frequencies. Does anyone know what bands most "quad-band" UMTS radios support? I can't find it online... I'll try and do more research on this and put together a chart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Since no one other than Apple and at&t apparently know the length of their current agreement, perhaps these new deals signal the impending end of their agreement in the US, leading to multiple carrier choice and an assured 10 million iPhone sales IN 2008! One can only hope...
The big problem to that of course is that T-mobile doesn't even have their 3G network up (which also uses a non-standard frequency), and Verizon and Sprint have CDMA/EV-DO networks. Perhaps if Apple truly wanted to target everyone, they would make a quad-band CDMA/EV-DO version of the iPhone. We can only wish!
Does anyone know what bands most "quad-band" UMTS radios support? I can't find it online... I'll try and do more research on this and put together a chart.
According to this one poster, the S-GOLD3H (PMB8878), that is found in the upcoming v2.0 software stack, apparently supports UMTS bands I, II and IV. The problem with that is that post is that without bands V there is no support or AT&T in the US, Rogers in Canada, Telestra in Australia, while giving access to T-Mobile's upcoming 3G network. Can the chip be easily made into any 4 band chip, is the poster wrong, can the GSM bands be used for UMTS too or is something else afoot?
If anyone has the PDF link to the PMB8878, please post it.
edit1: I found the part number but the name has changed to X-GOLD 608 as of April 16th and the PDF file listed is blank.
Apple is up more than 50% from its low this year of $120 in late February and is only 6 or 7% off its all time high.
The NASDAQ is down a bit to day, and Apple is lagging a little behind the market. It can't go up every day. That's just not how it works.
Yup. Just like some people think global warming has ended every time there's a dip in temperatures. If you track any stock (or climate for that matter) you have to distinguish between short-term fluctuation and the long-term trend. Apple's stock should go up again once it becomes clear how the transition from limited markets to closer to world-wide goes for iPhone -- and whether the initial sales are the start of a trend, or just saturation of the new gadget market. If you want to look at the long-term trend, look at a moving average to smooth out the noise; you shouldn't worry about the odd short-term fluctuation.
If you believe Apple has it right and the 3G phone will do even better, you may want to consider buying stock. But don't buy a house too near sea level
...If you believe Apple has it right and the 3G phone will do even better, you may want to consider buying stock. But don't buy a house too near sea level
Brisbane's okay. Sydney and Melbourne... Now that's another story.
Comments
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
I and others chastised Apple vigorously over their greed-based model and we were criticised vigorously for our sour grapes attitude and were told Apple were not interested in the mass-market for phones, they were only interested in the cream on top and that they could be hugely profitable by just dominating the premium phone sector. These same people argued that the revenue sharing model was just brilliant for Apple shareholders because it was going to generate the maximum profits possible from the iPhone platform and was nothing less than further indication of Apple's infallible genius at work.
Oh my, how things have changed
iphone v1 sure did keep the hype up and showed those carriers that were hesitant about adding NEW USERS how much they could grow. as i said in past posts it costs the carrier's a ton to get a customer to switch, iphone makes it much much easier.
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
Euro prices was too high imho, but nothing wrong with US ones.
...I am going to crunch some numbers later, but I would guess that with my simple method of also counting "potential switchers", the "addressable market" for the iPhone would increase by at least 50% ~500 million cited.
Again, yeah, I am leaning towards this approach. Basically iPhone 2nd half 2008, and particularly, 2009, any number of calculations, we are looking at a fricking massive number. Massive. The number of people using and from developing nations, will use, mobile phones, is just unbelievably massive. India, China, Africa, all the "higher tier" developing countries like those in South East Asia, etc........ Let's just say the natural limitations of iPhone growth is simply Apple's ability to cope with global demand.
The most important thing is not for Apple to go OMFG LETS MAKE TEH TRILLIONS MORE!!! W00t and then unsustainably grow the company. We've all seen what happens in these situations, I'm sure.
I'm going to be more radical here and propose that the only measure of addressable market going forward is not who will buy and how much, but what is the capacity of Apple, Inc. to grow, deal with, and meet global demand. That is the true key in the economics of this enterprise, IMHO.
I welcome the new iPhone business model Apple is putting in place - well done Apple!
Funny thing is though, where are all the fan-boys who were months ago arguing how clever and appropriate was the old model based on call revenue sharing?
I and others chastised Apple vigorously over their greed-based model and we were criticised vigorously for our sour grapes attitude and were told Apple were not interested in the mass-market for phones, they were only interested in the cream on top and that they could be hugely profitable by just dominating the premium phone sector. These same people argued that the revenue sharing model was just brilliant for Apple shareholders because it was going to generate the maximum profits possible from the iPhone platform and was nothing less than further indication of Apple's infallible genius at work.
Oh my, how things have changed
Apple may have been greedy, but they were also incredibly conservative. They needed to spread the risk of this really new, un-Apple, massive (you can tell I like this word) switch of the company from computers to "intarweb mobility devices".
No matter how lucrative carrier contracts may be, their new strategy for iPhone now will give them multiples of profit more. Whatever pro-carrier-locking advocates there have been in Apple management, even they can't ignore the huge demand at their feet any longer.
Again, mass market of phones is not the problem, I will reiterate: the problem is how is the company going to deal with huge global demand of all their products across the world over the next few years. Supply chain and inventory is of course, important. Knowledgeable staff and enthusiasts is important. Tech support and service will be slammed hard (simply because of huge numbers of units). Company growth will need to be managed.
Well, I don't doubt its possible to make a phone capable of operating in all the bands, but it would most likely add a lot to the cost of the radio chips.
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?Are we to expect Bands I, II, V and VIII in the iPhone? Does that correspond with the rumoured radio that is to be included?
Notice that this deal cancels the exclusivity arrangement that was in place with Austria with T-Mobile.
Will other currently exclusive markets be going multi-carrier as well?
Since no one other than Apple and at&t apparently know the length of their current agreement, perhaps these new deals signal the impending end of their agreement in the US, leading to multiple carrier choice and an assured 10 million iPhone sales IN 2008! One can only hope...
The question is...will AAPL hit $250 in the coming months?
The crazy thing about the stock market is that despite record numbers, it doesn't always equate to record highs in share price.
If Apple sells their targeted $10mil iPhones this year...the 'street' will say, well we expected 12.9 mil.
$250 sounds a bit rich considering the current market. Give it another year or so.
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?Are we to expect Bands I, II, V and VIII in the iPhone? Does that correspond with the rumoured radio that is to be included?
What? Who's rumoring a radio built into iPhone? That makes no sense.
What? Who's rumoring a radio built into iPhone? That makes no sense.
I think T-Mobile's 3G bands will be excluded, especially it get more users on AT&T's profit sharing plan, but can Apple have one iPhone for all the countries of the world?Are we to expect Bands I, II, V and VIII in the iPhone? Does that correspond with the rumoured radio that is to be included?
Thats a good question I didn't think about. In my post I was talking about a radio that could do ALL the bands from both CDMA and UMTS. For Apple covering all of these countries, I imagine they would want to have universal UMTS radio. I don't know a lot about this, but here are the bands in use although I don't know which bands the companies use that have announced iPhone availability.
2100 (downlink) / 1900 (uplink) for Japan, Europe, Brazil and Asia
1900 / 850 (independently, for both the uplink and downlink) for Americas (US, Canada, Latin America and Brazil) (e.g. AT&T Mobility and Rogers Wireless)
* 2100 (downlink) / 1700 (uplink) for America (e.g. T-Mobile USA)
* 800 for Japan (NTT DoCoMo in rural areas)
850 for Australia (Telstra NextG)
900 (Europe, Asia, Oceania)
So, assuming AT&T exclusivity remains and since T-mobile doesn't even have their 3G network running yet, we can remove T-Mobile from the list and and get rid of the 1700mhz band. Also if NTT DoCoMo is not a carrier or if they are but don't need compatibility for the 800mhz part of their network, then we can remove 800mhz support too. That leaves only four frequencies: 850Mhz, 900Mhz, 1900Mhz, 2100Mhz to support. I assume they probably make or can make quad-band chips for these frequencies. Does anyone know what bands most "quad-band" UMTS radios support? I can't find it online... I'll try and do more research on this and put together a chart.
Since no one other than Apple and at&t apparently know the length of their current agreement, perhaps these new deals signal the impending end of their agreement in the US, leading to multiple carrier choice and an assured 10 million iPhone sales IN 2008! One can only hope...
The big problem to that of course is that T-mobile doesn't even have their 3G network up (which also uses a non-standard frequency), and Verizon and Sprint have CDMA/EV-DO networks. Perhaps if Apple truly wanted to target everyone, they would make a quad-band CDMA/EV-DO version of the iPhone. We can only wish!
Does anyone know what bands most "quad-band" UMTS radios support? I can't find it online... I'll try and do more research on this and put together a chart.
According to this one poster, the S-GOLD3H (PMB8878), that is found in the upcoming v2.0 software stack, apparently supports UMTS bands I, II and IV. The problem with that is that post is that without bands V there is no support or AT&T in the US, Rogers in Canada, Telestra in Australia, while giving access to T-Mobile's upcoming 3G network. Can the chip be easily made into any 4 band chip, is the poster wrong, can the GSM bands be used for UMTS too or is something else afoot?
If anyone has the PDF link to the PMB8878, please post it.
edit1: I found the part number but the name has changed to X-GOLD 608 as of April 16th and the PDF file listed is blank.edit2: Here is an interesting article from just two days ago...
Apple is up more than 50% from its low this year of $120 in late February and is only 6 or 7% off its all time high.
The NASDAQ is down a bit to day, and Apple is lagging a little behind the market. It can't go up every day. That's just not how it works.
Yup. Just like some people think global warming has ended every time there's a dip in temperatures. If you track any stock (or climate for that matter) you have to distinguish between short-term fluctuation and the long-term trend. Apple's stock should go up again once it becomes clear how the transition from limited markets to closer to world-wide goes for iPhone -- and whether the initial sales are the start of a trend, or just saturation of the new gadget market. If you want to look at the long-term trend, look at a moving average to smooth out the noise; you shouldn't worry about the odd short-term fluctuation.
If you believe Apple has it right and the 3G phone will do even better, you may want to consider buying stock. But don't buy a house too near sea level
Philip Machanick
School of ITEE, University of Queensland,
Australia
How is the ol' UQ ITEE
...If you believe Apple has it right and the 3G phone will do even better, you may want to consider buying stock. But don't buy a house too near sea level
Brisbane's okay. Sydney and Melbourne... Now that's another story.
oh and this just in: planet express to distribute new iphone in mars and omicron persei 8.
oh and this just in: planet express to distribute new iphone in mars and omicron persei 8.
lol...
also interesting is all the at&t stores still have supplies of iphones. no new iphone till they are sold out is my guess . maybe by next week
I'll never get it... or maybe I already do... WHY THE HELL DO PEOPLE NOT LIKE BUYING THE IPHONE FROM AT&T ?????