Three quick comments. One, I have little doubt that carriers will sign up en masse now that some of the business model restrictions are gone. Plus, customers will see $199 as a relatively easy impulse buy, and once a couple 'have to have' iPhone apps start flooding into the market, Apple is going to do some crazy, game-changing volume. $199 is a magic consumer adoption type of number and most consumers don't do the lifecycle spend analysis; they tend to be more upfront out of pocket driven.
Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.
If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.
Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.
For what its worth, I have done a fairly lengthy analysis of the keynote called:
Three quick comments. One, I have little doubt that carriers will sign up en masse now that some of the business model restrictions are gone. Plus, customers will see $199 as a relatively easy impulse buy, and once a couple 'have to have' iPhone apps start flooding into the market, Apple is going to do some crazy, game-changing volume. $199 is a magic consumer adoption type of number and most consumers don't do the lifecycle spend analysis; they tend to be more upfront out of pocket driven.
Quite true
Quote:
Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.
True. But I can stomach your simple statement soooo much easier than a survey of a handfull of developers and a chart with some numbers pulled out of his a--
Quote:
If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.
Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.
this article from popular machanics says a lot, just like i was saying what will build the new platform is SOFTWARE ...SJ has learned from his skips with MS and loss of the pc desktop but growing back. how many of those touch screen phones are iphone "killer" use dingdong MS moble, they look nice but the os rules other manufacturers have failed for lack of software where withall
i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"
and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength
this article from popular machanics says a lot, just like i was saying what will build the new platform is SOFTWARE ...SJ has learned from his skips with MS and loss of the pc desktop but growing back. how many of those touch screen phones are iphone "killer" use dingdong MS moble, they look nice but the os rules other manufacturers have failed for lack of software where withall
i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"
and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength
Meh. To a hammer everything looks like a nail... It's the whole product, not just the software. So, although there is great promise for Android so far, I think Apple's whole product experience will always be far superior, even if it's lacking in occasional gee-whiz features.
"But whoa ! The app store being $1.2b ! How could it possibly be !!!"
Guys, think about this - APP store is like MUSIC store - impulse buys as others have voiced etc. would have its impact - I have bought several apps like Jotter, iClip, Menustrip etc. that I would not have bought earlier - not to mention MenuStrip, PiquantMenu, Launcher etc that do the same thing but for want of better features as perceived by me - ... because it is only <$20 and ... you get the picture.
But what is interesting is that, this could pave the way for app rentals - like automatic upgrades - starting from mini apps for iphone to apps for big machines - may be 10.9 will be exclusively through app store, may be you will get an automatic upgrade to 10.10 provided you spend a steady $29.99 every month as a subscription.
Also, you are forgetting that we haven't even touched Apple TV as a platform. Remember, iTunes started for iPods - then bloated up into a humongo size - to activate phones for a phone carrier - what !!!!
Come on guys and gals, I am sure Gene Munster's estimates are very conservative as all these machinations are not taken into account.
Quite likely when you buy a mac in 2012, you will have it establish net connection first in EFI and make you download the OS from the AppStore !!!
they will have apps like we have access to widgets WITH REVIEWS, nice to know about a tested, approved, working, reviewed app before you pluck those $$$ down. this will be HUGE, and necessary for this iphone platform to grow....LG, BB, HTC, sony etc are nervous not from the iphone look/ touch screen, but its #1 software superiority #2 apps store.
Considering the current industry standard, i thought apple were too generous to developer by giving them 70% of the revenue. When they have to maintain the server, bandwidth, credit card transaction etc.
May be those cost are negligible.
I dont see Apps being a mass hit for phone. Surely everyone will at least pay for one a two apps. But i think there will always be a good free alternative on the App Store.
However games are different matter. I think Games will be big hit on the iPhone. Not to mention possible itunes music and video directly to iPhone.
Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.
Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.
1. Who says that 70% of developers will offer free apps?
2. They limited the number of developers initially as it is a completely new venture. Opening it to everyone could have been a disaster as they could not manage the numbers, I suppose you would have complained then as well.
3. If you want to develop for Android then feel free, your loss not ours.
I think Apps are the new Singles and I'm willing to bet that even at it's most aggressive, part of this estimate is too low.
The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.
Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).
I think Apps are the new Singles and I'm willing to bet that even at it's most aggressive, part of this estimate is too low.
The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.
Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).
The comparison is rhetorical nonsense created to drive traffic to your site. That's my bet.
I'm interested in discussing ideas.
My comparison is based on personal experience in the mobile market and in working for record labels on the music side.
As a user, I've experienced the pain of trying to find and install applications onto many different handsets with various carriers. They're difficult to find, difficult to install and configure, often have functionality crippled by the carriers (who've locked out parts of the phone in various ways). I've worked from the other end to help get applications onto handsets and experienced the pain there.
Dropping those barriers is game changing in the mobile market just as Apple changed the structure of the music business. Where's the rhetorical nonsense in that?
Comments
More on my blog:
http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008...r-adobe-flash/
Cheers,
BW
THe fear of cannibalizing this extremely valuable business is why Apple won't let Flash onto the iPhone.
More on my blog:
http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008...r-adobe-flash/
Cheers,
BW
Out, damn blogspammer!
Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.
If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.
Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.
For what its worth, I have done a fairly lengthy analysis of the keynote called:
iPhone 2.0: Swinging for the Global Fences
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2...-20-swing.html
Check it out if interested.
Mark
Three quick comments. One, I have little doubt that carriers will sign up en masse now that some of the business model restrictions are gone. Plus, customers will see $199 as a relatively easy impulse buy, and once a couple 'have to have' iPhone apps start flooding into the market, Apple is going to do some crazy, game-changing volume. $199 is a magic consumer adoption type of number and most consumers don't do the lifecycle spend analysis; they tend to be more upfront out of pocket driven.
Quite true
Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.
True. But I can stomach your simple statement soooo much easier than a survey of a handfull of developers and a chart with some numbers pulled out of his a--
If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.
Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.
true and true
i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"
http://www.popularmechanics.com/tech...y/4268146.html
and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength
this article from popular machanics says a lot, just like i was saying what will build the new platform is SOFTWARE ...SJ has learned from his skips with MS and loss of the pc desktop but growing back. how many of those touch screen phones are iphone "killer" use dingdong MS moble, they look nice but the os rules other manufacturers have failed for lack of software where withall
i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"
http://www.popularmechanics.com/tech...y/4268146.html
and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength
Meh. To a hammer everything looks like a nail... It's the whole product, not just the software. So, although there is great promise for Android so far, I think Apple's whole product experience will always be far superior, even if it's lacking in occasional gee-whiz features.
"But whoa ! The app store being $1.2b ! How could it possibly be !!!"
Guys, think about this - APP store is like MUSIC store - impulse buys as others have voiced etc. would have its impact - I have bought several apps like Jotter, iClip, Menustrip etc. that I would not have bought earlier - not to mention MenuStrip, PiquantMenu, Launcher etc that do the same thing but for want of better features as perceived by me - ... because it is only <$20 and ... you get the picture.
But what is interesting is that, this could pave the way for app rentals - like automatic upgrades - starting from mini apps for iphone to apps for big machines - may be 10.9 will be exclusively through app store, may be you will get an automatic upgrade to 10.10 provided you spend a steady $29.99 every month as a subscription.
Also, you are forgetting that we haven't even touched Apple TV as a platform. Remember, iTunes started for iPods - then bloated up into a humongo size - to activate phones for a phone carrier - what !!!!
Come on guys and gals, I am sure Gene Munster's estimates are very conservative as all these machinations are not taken into account.
Quite likely when you buy a mac in 2012, you will have it establish net connection first in EFI and make you download the OS from the AppStore !!!
Considering the current industry standard, i thought apple were too generous to developer by giving them 70% of the revenue. When they have to maintain the server, bandwidth, credit card transaction etc.
May be those cost are negligible.
I dont see Apps being a mass hit for phone. Surely everyone will at least pay for one a two apps. But i think there will always be a good free alternative on the App Store.
However games are different matter. I think Games will be big hit on the iPhone. Not to mention possible itunes music and video directly to iPhone.
Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.
Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.
1. Who says that 70% of developers will offer free apps?
2. They limited the number of developers initially as it is a completely new venture. Opening it to everyone could have been a disaster as they could not manage the numbers, I suppose you would have complained then as well.
3. If you want to develop for Android then feel free, your loss not ours.
The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.
Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).
Anyone willing to take my bet?
I think Apps are the new Singles and I'm willing to bet that even at it's most aggressive, part of this estimate is too low.
The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.
Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).
Anyone willing to take my bet?
The comparison is rhetorical nonsense created to drive traffic to your site. That's my bet.
The comparison is rhetorical nonsense created to drive traffic to your site. That's my bet.
I'm interested in discussing ideas.
My comparison is based on personal experience in the mobile market and in working for record labels on the music side.
As a user, I've experienced the pain of trying to find and install applications onto many different handsets with various carriers. They're difficult to find, difficult to install and configure, often have functionality crippled by the carriers (who've locked out parts of the phone in various ways). I've worked from the other end to help get applications onto handsets and experienced the pain there.
Dropping those barriers is game changing in the mobile market just as Apple changed the structure of the music business. Where's the rhetorical nonsense in that?