Report: half of prospective smartphone buyers eying iPhone 3G
In a sign of "unprecedented pent-up demand" for the upcoming iPhone 3G, investment bank RBC Capital Markets says its own proprietary study has revealed that more than half of consumers who are in the market for a smartphone intend to purchase one of the new Apple handsets after its launch on July 11th.
Specifically, the survey of 3,600 RBC Technology Adoption Panel members conducted shortly after Apple's annual developers conference this month indicated that 56 percent of those consumers who plan on buying a smartphone in the next 90 days have their heart set on the sleek new iPhone 3G.
That's a jump from just 35 percent of consumers who said they anticipated buying one of the new touch-screen handsets back in March when the firm conducted a similar survey before Apple had announced pricing and features. Another 25 percent indicated that they may buy an iPhone 3G "sometime in the future" -- a more than twofold increase in interest from the March study.
There's more good news for Apple. The same study showed that purchase interest in the Apple handset is two times greater than that of other brands surveyed. Consumers holding out for a BlackBerry device in the next 90 days made up 23 percent of responds, while Palm garnered interest from just 3 percent. HTC, Nokia, and Samsung each had the interest of 2 percent of respondents to the study, and Motorola just 1 percent.
Consumers routinely cited the iPhone 3G's lower price (67 percent) and faster 3G internet access (63 percent) among the top reasons they plan to choose the Apple handset. 47 percent indicated GPS was a strong selling feature as well, while 35 percent included enterprise email in the list of selling points, and 20 percent check-marked third party applications.
Overall, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky said the surge in interest is the biggest jump ahead of any consumer phone recorded by his firm's internal panel since 2003.
"Overall intentions by the panel to purchase smartphones jumped to 10.5 percent, indicating a significant expansion of the smartphone market," he wrote. "[The] iPhone's TAM (Total Addressable Market) handset share [is] expected to rise from 0.3 percent in 2007 to 1.7 percent in 2009.
The analyst, who reiterated his Outperform rating on Apple shares, said he continues to expect that the company will ship 14 million iPhones in 2008 and 24 million in 2009.
Specifically, the survey of 3,600 RBC Technology Adoption Panel members conducted shortly after Apple's annual developers conference this month indicated that 56 percent of those consumers who plan on buying a smartphone in the next 90 days have their heart set on the sleek new iPhone 3G.
That's a jump from just 35 percent of consumers who said they anticipated buying one of the new touch-screen handsets back in March when the firm conducted a similar survey before Apple had announced pricing and features. Another 25 percent indicated that they may buy an iPhone 3G "sometime in the future" -- a more than twofold increase in interest from the March study.
There's more good news for Apple. The same study showed that purchase interest in the Apple handset is two times greater than that of other brands surveyed. Consumers holding out for a BlackBerry device in the next 90 days made up 23 percent of responds, while Palm garnered interest from just 3 percent. HTC, Nokia, and Samsung each had the interest of 2 percent of respondents to the study, and Motorola just 1 percent.
Consumers routinely cited the iPhone 3G's lower price (67 percent) and faster 3G internet access (63 percent) among the top reasons they plan to choose the Apple handset. 47 percent indicated GPS was a strong selling feature as well, while 35 percent included enterprise email in the list of selling points, and 20 percent check-marked third party applications.
Overall, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky said the surge in interest is the biggest jump ahead of any consumer phone recorded by his firm's internal panel since 2003.
"Overall intentions by the panel to purchase smartphones jumped to 10.5 percent, indicating a significant expansion of the smartphone market," he wrote. "[The] iPhone's TAM (Total Addressable Market) handset share [is] expected to rise from 0.3 percent in 2007 to 1.7 percent in 2009.
The analyst, who reiterated his Outperform rating on Apple shares, said he continues to expect that the company will ship 14 million iPhones in 2008 and 24 million in 2009.
Comments
we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)
Why is 7/11 taking so long to get here?
I'm hoping some version of the iPhone will come to Verizon soon.
This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....
we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)
AAPL stock is always being manipulated. Just a way of life. If you think it is a good value and are willing to hold on to it for the long-run, call it an opportunity to buy.
I think the SJ component of it is pretty low on the totem pole; it is added risk, but the biggest issue in the market is that people are engineering a recession which will reduce consumer spending. Traffic in the Apple stores looks to be down a bit, if my neighborhood store is an accurate indicator. The June quarter isn't going to be anything fantastic by the looks of it.
If SJ were to die tomorrow, the stock would likely go below $100, which would still put it at a 25% premium to HP or Dell. If you are paranoid about this, check your actuarial tables and hedge accordingly...
Me, I'm holding off on buying more shares until it dips below $160 or so.
I also think that the US numbers may end up being softer than optimistic people expect.
Any number is softer than an optimist expects it to be.
This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....
we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)
To answer your question, Steve Ballmer needs to be out doing his "monkey dance", clapping his hands and screaming... "SPECULATORS!, SPECULATORS!, SPECULATORS!"
This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....
Same reason 75% of all stocks are "tanking" right now.
It has little to do with Apple as a single entity.
I'm hoping some version of the iPhone will come to Verizon soon.
Not gonna' happen anytime soon. They use two entirely different network technologies. Verizon pushes to lock customers into its VCast media network. That business model is the antithesis of the iPhone business model.
I think "eyeing" is the preferred spelling, although "eying" is acceptable, but it looks weird to me.
Any number is softer than an optimist expects it to be.
You're right.
I should have added that for a number of quarters, Apple has beaten even optimistic projections.
I'll concede and re-word my point: Apple's US numbers may simply meet it own conservative projections, even as it grows overseas.
Same reason 75% of all stocks are "tanking" right now.
It has little to do with Apple as a single entity.
The industrial average is actually green on my widget, but every stock I'm watching is in the red, but that's because it's almost all tech stocks, tech sector was hit. According to the Google Finance Sector Summary, most sectors are up.
Apple is usually it harder than most.
Apple has decided to be extremely low key about the release of iPhone 3G. It saves them millions of dollars in marketing but I wonder if it also has something to do with anxiety about meeting initial demand. I don't expect them to have enough 3G iPhones on hand to satisfy the Japan, Spain, Australia and Italy launch demand for more than 7 days. I also think that the US numbers may end up being softer than optimistic people expect.
I don't think Apple is any quieter than usual. They are usually just about silent on anything.
Last year, the analysts were practically one-upping each other with higher launch expectations.
I'll concede and re-word my point: Apple's US numbers may simply meet it own conservative projections, even as it grows overseas.
Apple didnt' release any US specific numbers for 2008. So far Apple has sold the majority in the US. I wouldn't put money on sales being conservative.
Not gonna' happen anytime soon. They use two entirely different network technologies. Verizon pushes to lock customers into its VCast media network. That business model is the antithesis of the iPhone business model.
Although Verizon does indeed nickel and dime you to death with their 'VCAST' media crap and they infect their cellphones with their hideous red user interface, they don't do any of that crap to the smartphones they sell. I'm sure they would readily sell the iPhone to stop defection to AT&T, and the main problem lies in AT&T exclusivity and Apple developing an CDMA iPhone.
I personally wish this would happen, but unfortunately it's probably not going to happen until Verizon and AT&T launch their next-gen LTE network. Even in that case, I'm not sure how Verizon is going to handle the outlying areas, e.g., if they are going to sell dual-mode CDMA/LTE phones or switch their existing CDMA network over to UMTS, or even just build out an entire nationwide LTE network in parallel with the existing CDMA one, and slowly transition all their customers over.
People may be less than thrilled when they see the pricing of the monthly rate plans for the 3G iPhone.
They shouldn't be. Bottom line is that iPhone 1.0 people got a good deal since it was limited to 2G and an AT&T exclusive. Blackberry owners have been paying the normal higher rate for years even though all blackberry devices were limited to 2G as well. The iPhone 3G plans are the standard rate plans that ALL smartphones pay for voice and data access. People are just pissy because they didn't realize how high the prices have been. I'm been paying $50/month for "unlimited" aka 5GB of data from Verizon for years...
Hopefully with the enormous popularity of the iPhone (and raised awareness of other smartphones as well), consumers start adopting data plans in droves! This should eventually result in better mobile data prices as carriers start to compete on that feature.....
I'm sure they would readily sell the iPhone to stop defection to AT&T, and the main problem lies in AT&T exclusivity and Apple developing an CDMA iPhone.
What defection?
Verizon Wireless is beating AT&T Wireless in net adds --- even after the iphone was launched.
People may be less than thrilled when they see the pricing of the monthly rate plans for the 3G iPhone.
AT&T will be charging the 3G iPhone users the same rate they charge everyone else on their network for the data and voice plans. Blackberry Pearl 8120 cost $199.99 after mail-in rebate and uses the same plans the 3G iPhone use. What's the problem?
As some one mentioned before, AT&T offered good plans for people who bought the 2G iPhone but people didn't see it then. You want 3G speeds, you will pay for the 3G speed even if it is not in your area. That's what most people didn't understand.