A look at who's making iPhone 3G purchases thus far

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A study of customers queued outside of Apple's retail stores over the weekend reveals that early iPhone 3G adopters are predominantly Mac users, and that Motorola and Samsung are amongst the rival handset vendors that will be hit hardest as consumers flock to Apple for their new mobile phone.



The survey of more than 280 line waiters conducted by investment bank Piper Jaffray in New York City and Minneapolis was aimed at quantifying everything from launch demand, to the mix of 8GB and 16GB models, to the phones from which customers were upgrading. The results were then also compared to those from a similar survey conducted during the original iPhone launch last year.



Overall, Piper Jaffray found that 61 percent of early adopters owned Macs and 39 percent owned Windows-based PCs, a sign that Apple's existing customer base was largely to thank for the successful launch that raked in sales of more than 1 million units in just three days. At the same time, however, that figure clearly shows the Cupertino-based company to be gaining influence amongst Windows users, who accounted for just 25 percent of first weekend iPhone sales last year.



Of those surveyed, 66 percent said they planned on buying the higher capacity 16GB model, compared to a resounding 95 percent of buyers who selected the higher capacity 8GB option during last year's iPhone launch. The remaining 34 percent were content saving $100 and settling for the entry level iPhone 3G that offers half as much storage.



The iPhone is also starting to show some definitive signs of cannibalization of standalone iPods, however. Last year, 68 percent of early iPhone adopters surveyed by Piper Jaffray said they would continue to use an iPod in addition to their iPhone. That compares to just 51 percent this year.



Also of interest from the firm's survey is that 85 percent of early iPhone 3G buyers said they were compelled into their purchase by the handset's new features, while only 9 percent cited the phone's greatly reduced price. Meanwhile, the iPhone continues to serve as a driver for AT&T's subscriber base, with 38 percent of those queued outside Apple retail stores indicating they'd be switching to AT&T for the first this past weekend (compared to 52 percent during the original iPhone launch).







Those customers switching to AT&T to get an iPhone 3G or dump their non-Apple handset were doing so largely at the expense of handset makers Motorola and Samsung, Piper Jaffray found. In particular, 20 percent said they were retiring a Motorola handset and 13 percent said they were trading up from a Samsung phone. Only 6 percent said they were moving from a Blackberry, 4 percent from a Nokia, and 3 percent from a Treo. Another 6 percent said they were upgrading from an LG phone, and 38 percent owned a first-generation iPhone.



Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, had originally estimated that Apple would sell 425,000 iPhones from Friday morning to Sunday evening. Following Apple's announcement Monday morning that it actually moved 1 million units, Munster issued an updated report to clients in which he estimated the majority of that upside was driven by stronger than anticipated demand internationally.







Specifically, he estimated that 400,000 units were sold in the U.S., 250,000 units were sold in the U.K., and an average of 18,000 units were sold in each of the 19 other countries.



"Global demand for the iPhone is better than expected. This trend will likely continue as Apple rolls out an additional 58 countries in the next several months," the analyst said. "In addition, we expect Apple will sell phones in China and Russia by year end. The only problem is production, but we continue to believe 45 million units for 2009 is achievable."

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 37
    shanmugamshanmugam Posts: 1,200member
    Surprised see to 64k in Mexico wow, almost comes third or fourth after US, UK, Italy



    only 14k in Australia???
  • Reply 2 of 37
    kasperkasper Posts: 941member, administrator
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shanmugam View Post


    Surprised see to 64k in Mexico wow, almost comes third or fourth after US, UK, Italy



    only 14k in Australia???



    Those are Gene's "estimates," remember.



    Best,



    K
  • Reply 3 of 37
    ivladivlad Posts: 742member
    69K in Mexico? WOW! Im very confused.



    I think its good that not all 70 countries were selling iPhone. Can anyone imagine the down time for the Apple Servers. ohhhhhh myyyy...



    If 21 countries shut them down, then 70 would just explode them
  • Reply 4 of 37
    Interesting numbers. More PC user's on board for this one.



    So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?



    thanks for the article
  • Reply 5 of 37
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Gene does not know what the actual number breakdown was.... estimates, people.... estimates!
  • Reply 6 of 37
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iVlad View Post


    69K in Mexico? WOW! Im very confused.

    I think its good that not all 70 countries were selling iPhone. Can anyone imagine the down time for the Apple Servers. ohhhhhh myyyy...

    If 21 countries shut them down, then 70 would just explode them



    LOL Cupertino would have melted into the Pacific Ocean.
  • Reply 7 of 37
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Gene does not know what the actual number breakdown was.... estimates, people.... estimates!



    Yeah the prediction is ambitious, but wow. Very very rough estimates. Somebody had to do it though.



    The UK number I feel is quite high, given how fast they flew out the window and how fast everywhere was sold out and pre-booked up the wazoo. I'd say 150,000 sold *max*. Assuming 1,000 outlets across the UK, each with 100 phones, that's 100,000 total. We know most places had only about 50 on average, maybe less. Throw in about 50,000 pre-orders, that's 150,000 total sold so far in the UK. But what do I know...
  • Reply 8 of 37
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wonderbread View Post


    Interesting numbers. More PC user's on board for this one.



    So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?



    thanks for the article



    As I was standing in line in the Manhattan Beach store I overhead a woman talking about her computer. I thought the wording of her discussion was interesting. She said "We don't even have a Mac, we just have a regular Dell." It might not seem like much but it was a good indication to me that Apple's image is in good shape and that it's becoming more of an aspirational brand. Obviously, this woman was standing in line to get an iPhone, so she wasn't just somebody off the street, but I thought it was an interesting turn of phrase.
  • Reply 9 of 37
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wonderbread View Post


    Interesting numbers. More PC user's on board for this one.



    So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?



    thanks for the article



    IMO it's going to start of as somewhere in the top 5 after Symbian and WindowsMobile. Probably by the end of the year it will be ahead of WindowsMobile...



    If Apple can manage the momentum and produce enough phones and grow the company really quite rapidly, we could see it in top 2 to top 3, maybe no.1 for smartphones. Nokia is the big chunk of the competition but right now Apple is probably looking to edge out Windows Mobile and Blackberry devices.
  • Reply 10 of 37
    probablyprobably Posts: 139member
    Manhattanites: Does the 5th Avenue line even get significantly shorter at midnight and later?
  • Reply 11 of 37
    retiariusretiarius Posts: 142member
    That 38% number is striking, or 380,000 potential units to immediately

    unload on eBay. Do early 3G adopters with original iPhones really think the originals

    are that bad to impulsively move over to a more expensive plan before the two-year

    period runs out? Maybe these are the type of folk who trade in a new car

    for another new one every couple years ...



    Or, perhaps a good portion are the post-May 27 purchases which trade

    up for a minimal cost.



    At any rate, for cheap hand-me-downs, can one fire up the "old" AT&T plan?
  • Reply 12 of 37
    bergermeisterbergermeister Posts: 6,784member
    Or do they think the 3G is that much better and worth the added cos of moving up?



    If I had an original, I would not have hesitated to move up. I anticipate moving up next year.
  • Reply 13 of 37
    rhowarthrhowarth Posts: 144member
    Hmm, I'm not sure about a survey that says "Do you own a Mac or PC?" and the numbers add up to 100%. While I can believe there won't be many people who own neither queuing for hours to get a new iPhone on the first day, what should people like me who own 3 Macs and 2 PCs answer?
  • Reply 14 of 37
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shanmugam View Post


    Surprised see to 64k in Mexico wow, almost comes third or fourth after US, UK, Italy



    only 14k in Australia???



    I think Mexico's numbers are surprising if true, but weren't the Australians complaining pretty loudly about their plan offerings? I thought they showed they were getting a "deal" that was roughly comparable to Canada's.
  • Reply 15 of 37
    dimmokdimmok Posts: 359member
    We only have Tequila.....



    Whats Tequila?



    UM...Its Like Beer.....



    Is it fattening? FATTENING?



    Viva Mexico!
  • Reply 16 of 37
    murphywebmurphyweb Posts: 295member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    I think Mexico's numbers are surprising if true, but weren't the Australians complaining pretty loudly about their plan offerings? I thought they showed they were getting a "deal" that was roughly comparable to Canada's.



    No, The Optus plans are pretty good. Probably better that the US. Calling plans start at $19 per month, need to buy the phone though, that is $500 but paid off at $50 per month.



    Australia's problem is no stock, if Australia only sold 14k then Australia only had 14k.
  • Reply 17 of 37
    One has to normalize sold units to number of citizens in each country. 6k in Sweden with 9mil citizens. Someone? Piper-Jaffery? Otherwise these figures are of no big interest for comparison. As absolute figures one has to consider RIM, Nokia and all the others. 1mil phones are a lot - but in comparison?
  • Reply 18 of 37
    penchantedpenchanted Posts: 1,070member
    I am also surprised by the estimate for Mexico. I am even more surprised by the estimate for Italy where, despite their love of cell phones, people complained quite loudly (including to the government) about the price of the iPhone. Maybe lust overcame people's anger and frustration. La dolce vita, indeed!
  • Reply 19 of 37
    emoney35emoney35 Posts: 52member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by retiarius View Post


    Do early 3G adopters with original iPhones really think the originals are that bad to impulsively move over to a more expensive plan before the two-year period runs out?



    I didn't have the original iPhone, but if the Edge speed on the original is the same as the iPhone 3G (I assume it is) then the 3G is totally worth upgrading for. I've been out of 3G range a couple of times and had to use Edge...man, it was almost unbearable after being on 3G 95% of the time! Now, if you don't have 3G readily available, then it probably isn't worth the upgrade, unless you really love GPS.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post


    Or do they think the 3G is that much better and worth the added cos of moving up?



    If I had an original, I would not have hesitated to move up. I anticipate moving up next year.



    Agreed. If a year from now they have a significantly better iPhone (such as going from Edge to 3G & GPS) I will almost surely upgrade. I can't imagine living in an area that has 3G, yet knowing that I'm stuck with an Edge only iPhone. It's night-and-day, IMO.
  • Reply 20 of 37
    kendokakendoka Posts: 110member
    250k in UK - and only 2k in Norway...

    What were they smoking when estimating?
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