Wondering if this would be a new upgradable desktop for users that need more than a mini, but not quite a Mac Pro.
If I had to choose 1 product, I would go with the earlier post on the Apple TV, probably a DVR. They could sell one, maybe 2 to each home. Might be as good profit as the iPhone with mass appeal. They might even be able to cut deals with cable companies, which would help with distribution.
My 2 cents!
AppleTV with DVR makes sense. I also brought it up in the other thread.
The key thing is that the new product damages the earning side by about 200M, without being a revenue driver. That means, it is very likely the revenue is deferred.
How does AppleTV/DVR fit in? There is some parallel to the cell phone market. The cable TV carriers give the set top boxes to the subscribers, with the ability to do video-on-demand already. It is difficult to persuade people to add another box to the family room, with one additional remote.
Now....what if Apple signs a major contract with Comcast and Comcast uses the next-gen AppleTV as the cable box/DVR/DVD player? The business model is almost the same as iPhone. Comcast would give the AppleTV to customer for free with 2-year contract(but of course, it will only be useful with their service). Apple will recognize the revenue over 2 years, and it is a great way to shut off the competitors in the streaming video business.
Assuming AppleTV costs $200 to make, and Apple expects to ship 1M in this Q, that will explain why there is a 200M hit on the earning side, but no apparent benefit on the revenue side.
And a HUGE mistake... if touch and shuffle become the only options available.
Apple have invested a lot of time and money into touch technology.. It is the next logical step to make it the de facto standard on it's entire iPod line. OSX and the app store on all their portable devices. It makes sense.
but I can totally see coverflow and video on a smaller nano. And think about the app store, Apple want's as many users as possible buying and downloading these apps.. Again, the competition couldn't touch this (no pun intended.)
VIdeo is already there, so of course you can see it.
But I hope you're right about the app store. Most speculation I've read on a touch-based nano has been skeptical, but I'd buy one in a second. Note that I'm not saying they're going to make one; just that I *really* want one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas
Perhaps they do a HDD to SSD transition across the whole Mac line shocking us all. Doesn't Intel have this supposedly "fantastic" SSD tech on the way that they brag about being superior to all other SSD's out there with some (seriously) extraordinary test results?
Fine, as long as it's seriously cheap. Otherwise, there's no way HDs go. Not for a long time.
Perhaps the product transition is not hardware but software, such as, free streaming video with commercials in iTunes? Having that working inside AppleTV and FrontRow would put them way ahead of the competition.
...
although I think the transition away from ipod classic makes the most sense.
The iPod Analog! Big chunky switches, sliders and rotary dials for the rest of us!!!!
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
The iPod touch is not a full blown computer interface.
And secondly, yes, the iPod touch is a computer, but so is the current iPod nano. It has a processor, a hard drive and an operating system.
needs sufficient volume to substantially impact overall margins.
Suggestions that the product transition involves the mac mini or apple TV don't seem to fit the facts, given that these products lack the volume required to have that much of an impact on overall margins.
Precisely. So what can drop their overall margins from 35% to 30%?
Assuming many Apple products remain at 35% margin, then loosely speaking, it's equivalent to moving HALF their products to a 25% margin., or 1/4 of their products to 15% margin... etc. But that assumes all the products are worth the same - if it was their cheaper products they'd have to sell HUGE numbers.
So it's significant. AND they're saying it's for the July-Sept quarter... that quarter is already 1/4 over.
Here's some possibilities people have mentioned...
*SSD storage on many products - yes costly & broad scope, but wouldn't lock out competitors much
*cheap Mac/PodTablet - costly, could lock out competitors - but couldn't make & sell enough to affect margin.
*very cheap AppleTV - costs Apple, easy to make, could lock out competitors - but it'd be hard to hide so many made
*touch display everywhere - costs Apple, broad impact, transition is feasible, could lock out competitors - possible
So I vote for touch display everywhere - iMac, all laptops, Cinema displays.
Of course they would not be replacing the mouse with touch screen - it becomes an additional interaction method that some people won't use, and that is impractical for some applications and great for others (especially if Apple has rewritten iLife (and iWork?) to take advantage).
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
Seriously. I love my 2nd gen shuffle because I don't have to pay attention to it at all. Just clip it on and tap the button when I want to skip a song or stop/start. Apple would be making a major error thinking that all iPods need touch-like interfaces. As a matter of fact, they'd benefit from even more radical simplification... more products need to be operated without even thinking about it. Future wearable Apple devices need to be more like jewelry or pets... out of the way and doing their work in the background.
Seriously. I love my 2nd gen shuffle because I don't have to pay attention to it at all. Just clip it on and tap the button when I want to skip a song or stop/start. Apple would be making a major error thinking that all iPods need touch-like interfaces. As a matter of fact, they'd benefit from even more radical simplification... more products need to be operated without even thinking about it. Future wearable Apple devices need to be more like jewelry or pets... out of the way and doing their work in the background.
I disagree, the touch devices are as simple to use as a click wheel.. You can start, stop and skip a song directly from the earbuds. The volume control is on the side for instant tactile reponse. Plus, for a nano it would be as easy as adding a "shuffle" icon to the home screen to get music going with no effort. I don't get the comments about how hard it is to navigate.. Yeah if your scrolling and looking for a particular song you have to look at the screen, but you have to do that on a current iPod anyway..
These state-of-the-art products will have technologies and features that others "can't match," Oppenheimer says.
Oppenheimer seemed to hint the new aluminum MB and Montevina MBP and MBA are on the way. It will use DDR3 modules which are still more expensive than DDR2 counter parts (that's one example why Apple needed to lower its profit margin for Q4). Possible transitions include but not limit to HDMI/DisplayPort, Blu-Ray, larger SSD and new ACD. Most important of all new MB and MBP case redesign (this would drive the cost up initially for new molding, another example to lower profit margin). These components are not going to be cheap initially while Apple need to justify the cost to current MB, MBP, MBA price level. Other possible technologies and features could be touch based iPod and thinner Mac Mini. It would be nice to see new Mac Pro, but probably won't happen in Apple's "transition quarter." Nevertheless it's going to be an exciting quarter for Apple product!
What a great sleuth. Glad: the war is over. Sad: he has retired.
The war may have been over but the Cold-War encroached as Britain continued to haemorrhage badly (thanks to the earlier insane warmongering of Churchill and the avaricious imperialist aspirations of the USA). Blackmailed by the US into handing all our technological secrets and strategic military bases to this former fair-weather friend, a penniless Britain had to endure many critical social problems through strict rationing and an imagined threat from communism... Plenty of criminal endeavours for Foyle to foil...
Costly product transition that would lower the profit margin - SSD storage.
all macbooks and imacs with SSD storage only?
Samsung did release the cheaper 128gb SSD drive.
I doubt it would be much lower than $500. A 320GB hard drive is now available as low as $130. Much of SSD's alleged benefits really haven't panned out much yet either, I see little that makes up for the low capacity and high cost.
Maybe it's a possibility, but I just don't think it's a good transition to do just yet.
it's a new iPhone. call it mini, nano etc...whatever but apple is going to have other designs for other needs.
for example a physical keyboard.
you say ha no way... but think about it. there are people out there who love their blackberries because of the keyboards and will never switch.
if apple has an iPhone 3G slider they take the barrier away.
as a proof, if you watch the 3G keynote oneline, halfway through where steve shows off the new calculator, he said something like see how not having plastic keys let's us do this.... or something like that...
if you watch the podcast version of the keynote...his comment was deleted.... yeah man... go check it out
They do know how to stir the pot of rumor and speculation. My guess is they are replacing the chips (possibly in laptops) with chips of their own design. Isn't that why they acquired PA semi? That would be a transition to shut out rivals.
Perhaps they are going to put the chip (at a lower power level) from this company in their iPods?
there is only one product that is mass market with stinky margins that will have features to beat the competition.. it is a low end phone that will be a smaller screen but with the same basic features as the touch... at 99.99 .. and a give away FOR ZERO DOLLARS WITH A TWO YEAR CONTRACT at ATT. IT WILL BE SO DARN SKINNY THAT IT WILL FIT INTO THE CC SLOT OF A WALLET.. WELL MAYBE NOT THAT THIN .. YET
A SINGLE IPHONE AT TWO PRICE POINTS IN CONSUMER ELECTRONICS AS A BUSINESS - WHERE A WIDE RANGE OF PRICES EXIST IN AN ENORMOUS HUMONGOUS PRODUCT CATEGORY LIKE PHONES - IS RIPE PICKINGS FOR APPLE TO EXPAND THEIR LINE-UP .. This phone will multiply by 500 zillion % the halo effect on their computer sales ... and the consumer electronics phenomenon of selling more-for-less (or more for the same price each year) and while still maintaining a respectable margin for CONSUMER ELECTRONICS of over 25% will ROCK. Well, 30% will do considering that CE competition is not so pretty as apple's products.
tell the kids to hang on.. a new phone is on the way that they will just love.. Mercedes and BMW can do it.. So Apple can too.. Apple consistently finds it easier to start at the top and work down the food chain..
Are you forgetting about iPods.. The time is just about right for an updated line..
All iPods go touch. No more classic and no more nano: they will become:
iPod touch
iPod nano touch.
All iPods will now use the app store. Brilliant..
Hmm, if all iPods go touchscreen, what's the point of putting touch in the name? Before the iPod touch was announced, the iPod classic was just the iPod, remember?
So, if Apple does as you say, seems more likely they'll just drop touch from the iPod touch, making it the new iPod and leave the iPod nano's name alone while transforming it into a small version of the full-size iPod. That'll leave us with the iPod shuffle, iPod nano, iPod, and iPhone. Very simple.
I can see that happening only if they drop the iPod classic, which I'm not sure they're going to do just yet. Now if they can get a 64GB iPod touch out the door for a reasonable price, then most people would be ok with that because in less than a year, a 128GB iPod touch is almost a given. That's more than enough space for most people.
I think we're just as likely to see an iPod transition like that as we are a MacBook and MacBook Pro transition that involves dropping disc drives and slimming them down to match the Air's style. Maybe they'll completely kill replaceable batteries - MBs and MBPs are the only things Apple ships with such batteries. Not sure if SSDs are cheap enough, but they'll likely be optional.
AppleTV might get a minor improvement through Netflix. Obviously Netflix is transitioning from a DVD rental service that's having trouble keeping its head above water to a digital movie service that different devices can essentially tap into. The 360 will be getting an update this fall that allows for the streaming of Netflix Instant movies from a subscriber's Instant Queue online. I'm guessing Apple would like to make that service better by downloading the movies, rather than streaming them off the internet, and enabling the browsing of Netflix's entire digital library from the couch, rather than requiring configuration through Netflix's website.
Whatever Apple's up to, we'll find out ridiculously soon.
Comments
Wondering if this would be a new upgradable desktop for users that need more than a mini, but not quite a Mac Pro.
If I had to choose 1 product, I would go with the earlier post on the Apple TV, probably a DVR. They could sell one, maybe 2 to each home. Might be as good profit as the iPhone with mass appeal. They might even be able to cut deals with cable companies, which would help with distribution.
My 2 cents!
AppleTV with DVR makes sense. I also brought it up in the other thread.
The key thing is that the new product damages the earning side by about 200M, without being a revenue driver. That means, it is very likely the revenue is deferred.
How does AppleTV/DVR fit in? There is some parallel to the cell phone market. The cable TV carriers give the set top boxes to the subscribers, with the ability to do video-on-demand already. It is difficult to persuade people to add another box to the family room, with one additional remote.
Now....what if Apple signs a major contract with Comcast and Comcast uses the next-gen AppleTV as the cable box/DVR/DVD player? The business model is almost the same as iPhone. Comcast would give the AppleTV to customer for free with 2-year contract(but of course, it will only be useful with their service). Apple will recognize the revenue over 2 years, and it is a great way to shut off the competitors in the streaming video business.
Assuming AppleTV costs $200 to make, and Apple expects to ship 1M in this Q, that will explain why there is a 200M hit on the earning side, but no apparent benefit on the revenue side.
And a HUGE mistake... if touch and shuffle become the only options available.
Apple have invested a lot of time and money into touch technology.. It is the next logical step to make it the de facto standard on it's entire iPod line. OSX and the app store on all their portable devices. It makes sense.
but I can totally see coverflow and video on a smaller nano. And think about the app store, Apple want's as many users as possible buying and downloading these apps.. Again, the competition couldn't touch this (no pun intended.)
VIdeo is already there, so of course you can see it.
But I hope you're right about the app store. Most speculation I've read on a touch-based nano has been skeptical, but I'd buy one in a second. Note that I'm not saying they're going to make one; just that I *really* want one.
Perhaps they do a HDD to SSD transition across the whole Mac line shocking us all. Doesn't Intel have this supposedly "fantastic" SSD tech on the way that they brag about being superior to all other SSD's out there with some (seriously) extraordinary test results?
Fine, as long as it's seriously cheap. Otherwise, there's no way HDs go. Not for a long time.
...
although I think the transition away from ipod classic makes the most sense.
The iPod Analog! Big chunky switches, sliders and rotary dials for the rest of us!!!!
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
The iPod touch is not a full blown computer interface.
And secondly, yes, the iPod touch is a computer, but so is the current iPod nano. It has a processor, a hard drive and an operating system.
needs sufficient volume to substantially impact overall margins.
Suggestions that the product transition involves the mac mini or apple TV don't seem to fit the facts, given that these products lack the volume required to have that much of an impact on overall margins.
Precisely. So what can drop their overall margins from 35% to 30%?
Assuming many Apple products remain at 35% margin, then loosely speaking, it's equivalent to moving HALF their products to a 25% margin., or 1/4 of their products to 15% margin... etc. But that assumes all the products are worth the same - if it was their cheaper products they'd have to sell HUGE numbers.
So it's significant. AND they're saying it's for the July-Sept quarter... that quarter is already 1/4 over.
Here's some possibilities people have mentioned...
*SSD storage on many products - yes costly & broad scope, but wouldn't lock out competitors much
*cheap Mac/PodTablet - costly, could lock out competitors - but couldn't make & sell enough to affect margin.
*very cheap AppleTV - costs Apple, easy to make, could lock out competitors - but it'd be hard to hide so many made
*touch display everywhere - costs Apple, broad impact, transition is feasible, could lock out competitors - possible
So I vote for touch display everywhere - iMac, all laptops, Cinema displays.
Of course they would not be replacing the mouse with touch screen - it becomes an additional interaction method that some people won't use, and that is impractical for some applications and great for others (especially if Apple has rewritten iLife (and iWork?) to take advantage).
edit: much much shorter.
You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.
Seriously. I love my 2nd gen shuffle because I don't have to pay attention to it at all. Just clip it on and tap the button when I want to skip a song or stop/start. Apple would be making a major error thinking that all iPods need touch-like interfaces. As a matter of fact, they'd benefit from even more radical simplification... more products need to be operated without even thinking about it. Future wearable Apple devices need to be more like jewelry or pets... out of the way and doing their work in the background.
Seriously. I love my 2nd gen shuffle because I don't have to pay attention to it at all. Just clip it on and tap the button when I want to skip a song or stop/start. Apple would be making a major error thinking that all iPods need touch-like interfaces. As a matter of fact, they'd benefit from even more radical simplification... more products need to be operated without even thinking about it. Future wearable Apple devices need to be more like jewelry or pets... out of the way and doing their work in the background.
I disagree, the touch devices are as simple to use as a click wheel.. You can start, stop and skip a song directly from the earbuds. The volume control is on the side for instant tactile reponse. Plus, for a nano it would be as easy as adding a "shuffle" icon to the home screen to get music going with no effort. I don't get the comments about how hard it is to navigate.. Yeah if your scrolling and looking for a particular song you have to look at the screen, but you have to do that on a current iPod anyway..
These state-of-the-art products will have technologies and features that others "can't match," Oppenheimer says.
Oppenheimer seemed to hint the new aluminum MB and Montevina MBP and MBA are on the way. It will use DDR3 modules which are still more expensive than DDR2 counter parts (that's one example why Apple needed to lower its profit margin for Q4). Possible transitions include but not limit to HDMI/DisplayPort, Blu-Ray, larger SSD and new ACD. Most important of all new MB and MBP case redesign (this would drive the cost up initially for new molding, another example to lower profit margin). These components are not going to be cheap initially while Apple need to justify the cost to current MB, MBP, MBA price level. Other possible technologies and features could be touch based iPod and thinner Mac Mini. It would be nice to see new Mac Pro, but probably won't happen in Apple's "transition quarter." Nevertheless it's going to be an exciting quarter for Apple product!
...or just a new Mac mini
What a great sleuth. Glad: the war is over. Sad: he has retired.
The war may have been over but the Cold-War encroached as Britain continued to haemorrhage badly (thanks to the earlier insane warmongering of Churchill and the avaricious imperialist aspirations of the USA). Blackmailed by the US into handing all our technological secrets and strategic military bases to this former fair-weather friend, a penniless Britain had to endure many critical social problems through strict rationing and an imagined threat from communism... Plenty of criminal endeavours for Foyle to foil...
I'm sure he'll be back.
Guys, he said Product Transition not new product.
Costly product transition that would lower the profit margin - SSD storage.
all macbooks and imacs with SSD storage only?
Samsung did release the cheaper 128gb SSD drive.
I doubt it would be much lower than $500. A 320GB hard drive is now available as low as $130. Much of SSD's alleged benefits really haven't panned out much yet either, I see little that makes up for the low capacity and high cost.
Maybe it's a possibility, but I just don't think it's a good transition to do just yet.
it's a new iPhone. call it mini, nano etc...whatever but apple is going to have other designs for other needs.
for example a physical keyboard.
you say ha no way... but think about it. there are people out there who love their blackberries because of the keyboards and will never switch.
if apple has an iPhone 3G slider they take the barrier away.
as a proof, if you watch the 3G keynote oneline, halfway through where steve shows off the new calculator, he said something like see how not having plastic keys let's us do this.... or something like that...
if you watch the podcast version of the keynote...his comment was deleted.... yeah man... go check it out
They do know how to stir the pot of rumor and speculation. My guess is they are replacing the chips (possibly in laptops) with chips of their own design. Isn't that why they acquired PA semi? That would be a transition to shut out rivals.
Perhaps they are going to put the chip (at a lower power level) from this company in their iPods?
The suspense is killing me...
A SINGLE IPHONE AT TWO PRICE POINTS IN CONSUMER ELECTRONICS AS A BUSINESS - WHERE A WIDE RANGE OF PRICES EXIST IN AN ENORMOUS HUMONGOUS PRODUCT CATEGORY LIKE PHONES - IS RIPE PICKINGS FOR APPLE TO EXPAND THEIR LINE-UP .. This phone will multiply by 500 zillion % the halo effect on their computer sales ... and the consumer electronics phenomenon of selling more-for-less (or more for the same price each year) and while still maintaining a respectable margin for CONSUMER ELECTRONICS of over 25% will ROCK. Well, 30% will do considering that CE competition is not so pretty as apple's products.
tell the kids to hang on.. a new phone is on the way that they will just love.. Mercedes and BMW can do it.. So Apple can too.. Apple consistently finds it easier to start at the top and work down the food chain..
Are you forgetting about iPods.. The time is just about right for an updated line..
All iPods go touch. No more classic and no more nano: they will become:
iPod touch
iPod nano touch.
All iPods will now use the app store. Brilliant..
Hmm, if all iPods go touchscreen, what's the point of putting touch in the name? Before the iPod touch was announced, the iPod classic was just the iPod, remember?
So, if Apple does as you say, seems more likely they'll just drop touch from the iPod touch, making it the new iPod and leave the iPod nano's name alone while transforming it into a small version of the full-size iPod. That'll leave us with the iPod shuffle, iPod nano, iPod, and iPhone. Very simple.
I can see that happening only if they drop the iPod classic, which I'm not sure they're going to do just yet. Now if they can get a 64GB iPod touch out the door for a reasonable price, then most people would be ok with that because in less than a year, a 128GB iPod touch is almost a given. That's more than enough space for most people.
I think we're just as likely to see an iPod transition like that as we are a MacBook and MacBook Pro transition that involves dropping disc drives and slimming them down to match the Air's style. Maybe they'll completely kill replaceable batteries - MBs and MBPs are the only things Apple ships with such batteries. Not sure if SSDs are cheap enough, but they'll likely be optional.
AppleTV might get a minor improvement through Netflix. Obviously Netflix is transitioning from a DVD rental service that's having trouble keeping its head above water to a digital movie service that different devices can essentially tap into. The 360 will be getting an update this fall that allows for the streaming of Netflix Instant movies from a subscriber's Instant Queue online. I'm guessing Apple would like to make that service better by downloading the movies, rather than streaming them off the internet, and enabling the browsing of Netflix's entire digital library from the couch, rather than requiring configuration through Netflix's website.
Whatever Apple's up to, we'll find out ridiculously soon.