The continual rebuilding and defense of hurricane-prone areas is just the kind of costly nonsense we ought not to be encouraging. I say let insurance rates determine the best way forward. With the supposed effects of future global warming-related disasters on the horizon, people would be far better off building and living in locations suited to realistic defense of extreme weather conditions.
I disagree, did you look at that paper I posted above? Figure 1? The maximum storm surge occurred ~60 km east of the storm track, a close second was the storm surge ~15 km east of the storm track.
Now go back and look at that Figure 1, perhaps the worst path Gustav could take would be for the eye of the storm to track directly along the Mississippi River from Southwest and South Passes landward. Note also the very shallow bathymetry as shown by the visible barrier islands and light blue to almost white colors.
The area with the highest sustained winds will push the most water into shallower and shallower waters, it will be backed into the upper right corner (for the track I've described above), just opposite of NO and Lake Pontchartrain. My guess is that if Gustav passes more than 50 km west of Southwest and South Passes then NO shouldn't see much of a storm surge.
I have just read that, great piece... thanks for posting it. My thoughts re. a possible flood in N.O. from Gustav making a landfall over 100+ miles to the west came from the effect of 2005's Hurricane Rita, which made landfall some 230 miles to the West of New Orleans, near Port Arthur TX, as a minimal Category 3 storm (115mph sustained winds). The winds in New Orleans were sustained at only 30kt (well under tropical storm force). Yet the storm surge from Rita in New Orleans was some 8 feet which was enough to top the (recently repatched) levees and the city was flooded, for a second time (although not to the extent of Katrina). If Gustav lives up to its (possible) expectations and makes landfall as a category 4 storm (stronger at landfall that both Katrina and Rita), as well as expanding its wind field from its already large current spread, then going from what happened with Rita, a landfall 100 miles west could have significant effects on Lake Pontchartrain. Of course, the levees are now (hopefully) in a far better state than the patch job just a month after Katrina.
Quote:
I haven't checked the latest NHC tracking predictions, but last I recall the storm would have a relatively steep angle of attack. So if the storm rides up the sediment ridge of the Mississippi River outlet channel that would most likely cause the greatest storm surge for NO. Note also that the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet Canal is still a POS and hasn't been blocked off yet.
Also note that during Katrina about one meter of the surge was due to the low air pressure which was strongest in the eye wall.
There was some cause for hope in a couple of the later forecast models indicating that a developing ridge could slow Gustav's forward progress, and maybe even turn it to the west or southwest before it reached the coastline... but the official forecast is not giving that outlier (any) weight. One of the worst possible scenarios would be where Gustav crawled toward New Orleans, and then ground to a halt right over the coastline as a Cat4, spinning in place for a day or two... a bit like the recent tropical storm Fay in N. Florida, except n times stronger.
(yikes).
Quote:
As to getting all the people out of NO New Orleans Orders Mandatory Evacuation Ahead Of Gustav it's mandatory as of 8 AM (or noon) on Sunday. News reports seem to suggest that the evacuation is proceeding much better than the last time (when there wasn't anything to speak of ).
As long as everyone has the chance to get the hell out of there, and there are enough buses to ferry people to shelters well away from the coast... lets just hope for everyone.
I have just read that, great piece... thanks for posting it. My thoughts re. a possible flood in N.O. from Gustav making a landfall over 100+ miles to the west came from the effect of 2005's Hurricane Rita, which made landfall some 230 miles to the West of New Orleans, near Port Arthur TX, as a minimal Category 3 storm (115mph sustained winds). The winds in New Orleans were sustained at only 30kt (well under tropical storm force). Yet the storm surge from Rita in New Orleans was some 8 feet which was enough to top the (recently repatched) levees and the city was flooded, for a second time (although not to the extent of Katrina). If Gustav lives up to its (possible) expectations and makes landfall as a category 4 storm (stronger at landfall that both Katrina and Rita), as well as expanding its wind field from its already large current spread, then going from what happened with Rita, a landfall 100 miles west could have significant effects on Lake Pontchartrain. Of course, the levees are now (hopefully) in a far better state than the patch job just a month after Katrina.
There was some cause for hope in a couple of the later forecast models indicating that a developing ridge could slow Gustav's forward progress, and maybe even turn it to the west or southwest before it reached the coastline... but the official forecast is not giving that outlier (any) weight. One of the worst possible scenarios would be where Gustav crawled toward New Orleans, and then ground to a halt right over the coastline as a Cat4, spinning in place for a day or two... a bit like the recent tropical storm Fay in N. Florida, except n times stronger.
(yikes).
As long as everyone has the chance to get the hell out of there, and there are enough buses to ferry people to shelters well away from the coast... lets just hope for everyone.
I don't doubt any of your statementa in youe first paragraph, so I may need to revise my guesstimate slightly. But remember that local bathymetry has a lot to do with the actual storm surge, the USACE uses an FEA model called ADCIRC that takes in the gridded data from various sources and does hindcasts, they do this to calibrate and validate the model, prior to doing production runs of baseline and alternatices.
I have six graphics that I'll post two at a time in seperate posts to follow.
So the Rita track came within ~190 miles and was somewhat stronger while passing in it's diagonal-lateral path. Katrina came in almost perpendicular to the coastline per se, where even Pensacola say ~7 foot surge and that's ~125 miles east of Katrina.
Note also that according to wikipedia Rita was the most intense GOM tropical storm of record, with sustained winds of 180 mph.
[LEFT]So the angle and proximity to the Mississippi River outlet channel to Gustav stays on this course, a large surge will be seen in the NO areas 18-21 ft in one spot, then 15-18 ft in many surrounding areas.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]The things to watch for are pressure in the eye wall if it get's down to ~900 mbar, it's a serious storm.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]Also note that as I've outlimed sbove, moving the current predicted tracks 20 km to the east is likely to be the most damaging in terms of maximum storm surge hitting NO.[/LEFT]
The things to watch for are pressure in the eye wall if it get's down to ~900 mbar, it's a serious storm.
Fortunately, the storm is a lot weaker today, lowest central pressure is up to 960 mb and the forecast now indicates a cat 2 landfall... although it will remain a large storm. The scary prospect of Gustav reintensifying in the middle of the GOM to a Katrina/Wilma/Rita like storm <900 mb is not in the forecast... thankfully.
Note that both storms are large, but Rita seems a bit more organized than Katrina.[/LEFT]
Nice images. Could you find a couple of water temp images? And pressure readings would be helpful, too. I might search oceaneather later, but you liekely know where to grab this quickly, and I just woke up with a hangover.
The interesting thing to me about the storms is the sizes of the eye; Katrina's is much larger, but does seem less organized (can'T see clear into it). It may, however, be a result of the water temp pattern it was over at the time of the image.
Are they in danger of "crying wolf" on this one? One reason why people stay behind is because the authorities are not credible. But for a mayor or a governor they are going to be wrong many more times then being right because ... they're trying to predict the weather.
Are they in danger of "crying wolf" on this one? One reason why people stay behind is because the authorities are not credible. But for a mayor or a governor they are going to be wrong many more times then being right because ... they're trying to predict the weather.
Not really. This is not a high category storm. NO was emptied and didn't get hit directly. Flash forward three years, thirty years?, from now and the Mayor is calling for everyone to leave and people say "I'm going to wait this one out 'cause you know ... "
Not really. This is not a high category storm. NO was emptied and didn't get hit directly. Flash forward three years, thirty years?, from now and the Mayor is calling for everyone to leave and people say "I'm going to wait this one out 'cause you know ... "
My point being that when officials talk up a big storm and tell people to run scared only to have the storm loose energy and not be nearly as deadly as cat' 5 would ... it causes people to ignore the next set of warnings that may actually be true.
My point being that when officials talk up a big storm and tell people to run scared only to have the storm loose energy and not be nearly as deadly as cat' 5 would ... it causes people to ignore the next set of warnings that may actually be true.
Things like this are hard to predict and its easy to Monday morning quarterback this thing, but I am glad they did. Better to be safe than sorry.
Will be interesting to see what will happen next time a big storm is headed our way and its "NOT" an election year!
With that said, most power in BR is out. generators are set to run out of fuel on Wednesday for our datacenters....so if we dont' get more fuel soon it could get interesting.
Most my co-workers are unable to make it in. Not CNN worthy but not fun either.
Comments
I disagree, did you look at that paper I posted above? Figure 1? The maximum storm surge occurred ~60 km east of the storm track, a close second was the storm surge ~15 km east of the storm track.
Now go back and look at that Figure 1, perhaps the worst path Gustav could take would be for the eye of the storm to track directly along the Mississippi River from Southwest and South Passes landward. Note also the very shallow bathymetry as shown by the visible barrier islands and light blue to almost white colors.
The area with the highest sustained winds will push the most water into shallower and shallower waters, it will be backed into the upper right corner (for the track I've described above), just opposite of NO and Lake Pontchartrain. My guess is that if Gustav passes more than 50 km west of Southwest and South Passes then NO shouldn't see much of a storm surge.
I have just read that, great piece... thanks for posting it.
I haven't checked the latest NHC tracking predictions, but last I recall the storm would have a relatively steep angle of attack. So if the storm rides up the sediment ridge of the Mississippi River outlet channel that would most likely cause the greatest storm surge for NO. Note also that the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet Canal is still a POS and hasn't been blocked off yet.
Also note that during Katrina about one meter of the surge was due to the low air pressure which was strongest in the eye wall.
There was some cause for hope in a couple of the later forecast models indicating that a developing ridge could slow Gustav's forward progress, and maybe even turn it to the west or southwest before it reached the coastline... but the official forecast is not giving that outlier (any) weight. One of the worst possible scenarios would be where Gustav crawled toward New Orleans, and then ground to a halt right over the coastline as a Cat4, spinning in place for a day or two... a bit like the recent tropical storm Fay in N. Florida, except n times stronger.
(yikes).
As to getting all the people out of NO New Orleans Orders Mandatory Evacuation Ahead Of Gustav it's mandatory as of 8 AM (or noon) on Sunday. News reports seem to suggest that the evacuation is proceeding much better than the last time (when there wasn't anything to speak of
As long as everyone has the chance to get the hell out of there, and there are enough buses to ferry people to shelters well away from the coast... lets just hope for everyone.
I have just read that, great piece... thanks for posting it.
There was some cause for hope in a couple of the later forecast models indicating that a developing ridge could slow Gustav's forward progress, and maybe even turn it to the west or southwest before it reached the coastline... but the official forecast is not giving that outlier (any) weight. One of the worst possible scenarios would be where Gustav crawled toward New Orleans, and then ground to a halt right over the coastline as a Cat4, spinning in place for a day or two... a bit like the recent tropical storm Fay in N. Florida, except n times stronger.
(yikes).
As long as everyone has the chance to get the hell out of there, and there are enough buses to ferry people to shelters well away from the coast... lets just hope for everyone.
I don't doubt any of your statementa in youe first paragraph, so I may need to revise my guesstimate slightly. But remember that local bathymetry has a lot to do with the actual storm surge, the USACE uses an FEA model called ADCIRC that takes in the gridded data from various sources and does hindcasts, they do this to calibrate and validate the model, prior to doing production runs of baseline and alternatices.
I have six graphics that I'll post two at a time in seperate posts to follow.
Hurricane Katrina Track[/CENTER]
[CENTER]
Hurricane Rita Track[/CENTER]
So the Rita track came within ~190 miles and was somewhat stronger while passing in it's diagonal-lateral path. Katrina came in almost perpendicular to the coastline per se, where even Pensacola say ~7 foot surge and that's ~125 miles east of Katrina.
Note also that according to wikipedia Rita was the most intense GOM tropical storm of record, with sustained winds of 180 mph.
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Rita[/CENTER]
[LEFT]
Note that both storms are large, but Rita seems a bit more organized than Katrina.[/LEFT]
Hurricane Gustav Predicted Track[/CENTER]
[CENTER]
Hurricane Gustav Predicted Storm Surge[/CENTER]
[LEFT]So the angle and proximity to the Mississippi River outlet channel to Gustav stays on this course, a large surge will be seen in the NO areas 18-21 ft in one spot, then 15-18 ft in many surrounding areas.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]The things to watch for are pressure in the eye wall if it get's down to ~900 mbar, it's a serious storm.[/LEFT]
[LEFT]Also note that as I've outlimed sbove, moving the current predicted tracks 20 km to the east is likely to be the most damaging in terms of maximum storm surge hitting NO.[/LEFT]
The things to watch for are pressure in the eye wall if it get's down to ~900 mbar, it's a serious storm.
Fortunately, the storm is a lot weaker today, lowest central pressure is up to 960 mb and the forecast now indicates a cat 2 landfall... although it will remain a large storm. The scary prospect of Gustav reintensifying in the middle of the GOM to a Katrina/Wilma/Rita like storm <900 mb is not in the forecast... thankfully.
Note that both storms are large, but Rita seems a bit more organized than Katrina.[/LEFT]
Nice images. Could you find a couple of water temp images? And pressure readings would be helpful, too. I might search oceaneather later, but you liekely know where to grab this quickly, and I just woke up with a hangover.
The interesting thing to me about the storms is the sizes of the eye; Katrina's is much larger, but does seem less organized (can'T see clear into it). It may, however, be a result of the water temp pattern it was over at the time of the image.
Thanks...
Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
[LEFT]HURRICANE
YEAR
MINIMUM PRESSURE
Hurricane Wilma
2005
882 mb
Hurricane Gilbert
1988
888 mb
The Labor Day Hurricane
1935
892 mb
Hurricane Rita
2005
895 mb
Hurricane Allen
1980
899 mb
Hurricane Katrina
2005
902 mb
Hurricane Camille
1969
905 mb
Hurricane Mitch
1998
905 mb
Hurricane Ivan
2004
910 mb
Hurricane Janet
1955
914 mb [/LEFT]
Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Date: 08/30
Time: 21 GMT
Lat: 22.10
Lon: -82.90
Wind(mph): 150
Pressure: 942
Storm Type: Category 4 Hurricane
Gustav History
Are they in danger of "crying wolf" on this one? One reason why people stay behind is because the authorities are not credible. But for a mayor or a governor they are going to be wrong many more times then being right because ... they're trying to predict the weather.
No . <-
Baton Rouge is getting shit hammered right now.
No . <-
Baton Rouge is getting shit hammered right now.
Not really. This is not a high category storm. NO was emptied and didn't get hit directly. Flash forward three years, thirty years?, from now and the Mayor is calling for everyone to leave and people say "I'm going to wait this one out 'cause you know ... "
Not really. This is not a high category storm. NO was emptied and didn't get hit directly. Flash forward three years, thirty years?, from now and the Mayor is calling for everyone to leave and people say "I'm going to wait this one out 'cause you know ... "
What part of BR are you in?
What part of BR are you in?
I'm in the part that got hit by a cat' 5 hurricane this week.
I'm in the part that got hit by a cat' 5 hurricane this week.
Guess im confused then. I thought you were in Baton Rouge.
My point being that when officials talk up a big storm and tell people to run scared only to have the storm loose energy and not be nearly as deadly as cat' 5 would ... it causes people to ignore the next set of warnings that may actually be true.
Things like this are hard to predict and its easy to Monday morning quarterback this thing, but I am glad they did. Better to be safe than sorry.
Will be interesting to see what will happen next time a big storm is headed our way and its "NOT" an election year!
With that said, most power in BR is out. generators are set to run out of fuel on Wednesday for our datacenters....so if we dont' get more fuel soon it could get interesting.
Most my co-workers are unable to make it in. Not CNN worthy but not fun either.