What's your iPhone sales prediction: total from its birth, to end of 2008?

irelandireland
Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
I've been told I have a freaky ability to guess correctly sometimes. I'm calling total sales from June 2007 to the end of calendar year 2008; 29 million. And if I'm wrong it'll be more than that amount, not less. So much for 10 million.



Don't laugh, predict. What's your guess? Give me a number.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 19
    captaincorecaptaincore Posts: 89member
    probably between 15-20M.
  • Reply 2 of 19
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    29 million. Don't laugh,



    I am not laughing... but I am curious as to why you think that the 3G iPhone is going to sell nearly 23 million units in just under 6 months.
  • Reply 3 of 19
    thttht Posts: 5,444member
    15,378,420 units on Dec 31, 11:59 pm.
  • Reply 4 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by piot View Post


    I am not laughing... but I am curious as to why you think that the 3G iPhone is going to sell nearly 23 million units in just under 6 months.



    Well they just added another 20 countries I think (lots of counties anyway) and the holiday season is round the corner. The iPhone is becoming somewhat affordable finally and more countries are adding a pre-pay model all the time. That and the app store is changing everything pretty much, and everyone who sees my iPhone now wants one, badly. As I was saying, if I'm wrong I'll be guessing to conservatively, it's going to be well up there.
  • Reply 5 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by captaincore View Post


    probably between 15-20M.



    15, 16, 17, 18, 19 or 20 million? Pick one.
  • Reply 6 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by THT View Post


    15,378,420 units on Dec 31, 11:59 pm.



    EDIT: wrong
  • Reply 7 of 19
    thttht Posts: 5,444member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    It's already passed that number.



    ~10m in Q3 08? Well, we'll find out in a few days. I hope I'm wrong! My portfolio could use the help.
  • Reply 8 of 19
    daniel bdaniel b Posts: 73member
    The iPhone is a very strong product. I predict a snowball effect, especially outside the US. The more people are exposed - the more they will want to buy.



    Disclosure: Yes, I own AAPL.



    /Daniel
  • Reply 9 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Daniel B View Post


    The iPhone is a very strong product. I predict a snowball effect, especially outside the US. The more people are exposed - the more they will want to buy.



    Disclosure: Yes, I own AAPL.



    /Daniel



    Disclosure lol, who doesn't own Apple?
  • Reply 10 of 19
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    29 million.



    So. Apple only needs to sell 16 million iPhones over the holidays.... and you'll be spot on!
  • Reply 11 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by piot View Post


    So. Apple only needs to sell 16 million iPhones over the holidays.... and you'll be spot on!



    Around 16 million yeah, just under that. I think they'll do it too. The holiday season is approaching, and they are adding more countries too don't forget.
  • Reply 12 of 19
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    Around 16 million yeah, just under that. I think they'll do it too.



    Yes and if they don't you can always go back and edit your original post.
  • Reply 13 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by piot View Post


    Yes and if they don't you can always go back and edit your original post.



    I could, but I won't.
  • Reply 14 of 19
    thttht Posts: 5,444member
    Well Ireland, you have a chance. If Apple's Q1 (4Q calendar 08) is like typical Christmas quarters, than you can use a 2x multiplier to the September numbers, which would be 14m to 15m iPhones. I for one am not that optimistic, and think if they sell 10m units, they will be doing well.



    We actually should now how they are doing in 3 or 4 weeks, end of Nov at the latest. So we probably don't have to wait much longer. They have to be selling more than a 1m per week, and channel checks should be able to figure that out soon.
  • Reply 15 of 19
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    12 million! And not a shilling more!
  • Reply 16 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    12 million! And not a shilling more!



    It's 13 million now.
  • Reply 17 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    I'm refreshing my sales prediction:



    27 Million



    27 million was my original prediction a while back, but I got too carried away and went to 29, I'm going to settle back on 27. So 27 million it is.
  • Reply 18 of 19
    walter slocombewalter slocombe Posts: 1,568member
    I'll be conservative and say 15.5 and as a second guess i'll say 15.2



    if its more, then thats ok too



    all these countries have been added Brendan, but dont forget the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN that might play a little part in how things unfold
  • Reply 19 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    I'll be conservative and say 15.5 and as a second guess i'll say 15.2



    Well it's 13 million now Walter. You think the holiday quarter is going to be 2.2 million?



    (the previous quarter was nearly 7 million btw)



    And please don't call me Brendan, my handle will do thanks.
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