Outside chance of new consumer device at Macworld - analyst
While acknowledging that expectations for next week's Macworld Expo are running relatively low, one Wall Street analyst believes there's an outside chance Apple will surprise show-goers with a new consumer oriented device.
Speaking to clients in a research note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said his latest round of supply chain checks lead him to believe Apple's announcements at the conference will center around new Macs and "potentially a sneak preview of Mac OS X 10.6 Leopard."
However, the analyst also cited "sources" as he echoed a pair of speculative reports (1, 2) from Apple bloggers this week, indicating the remote possibility that the Cupertino-based company may introduce a new "consumer device" that may be "an updated version of AppleTV and/or Time Capsule with enhanced capabilities including the ability to access personal content from anywhere on the Internet."
"Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an Apple event," he said. "However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."
Wu continues to believe that Apple is also hard at work on new, lower-cost iPhones and other larger form factor touchscreen devices, but doesn't expect those products to see daylight until sometime in the future.
"Our sense is that investor expectations [for Macworld] are fairly modest since it was announced that CEO Steve Jobs wouldn't be the keynote speaker," he added. "Nonetheless, we view new Macs as a positive catalyst as Apple's desktop business (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Pro) needs a refresh to re-ignite sales."
Meanwhile, the Kaufman Bros. analyst said his sources indicate that the recently refreshed MacBooks and MacBook Pros continue to experience robust demand. That said, he still called upon Apple to loosen its grip on premium pricing and introduce lower price points on some of its products given the macroeconomic environment.
"We continue to believe Apple is one of the better names to own in this tough macroeconomic environment, given its strong fundamentals," he said.
Wu maintains a Buy rating and $120 price target on shares of Apple.
Speaking to clients in a research note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said his latest round of supply chain checks lead him to believe Apple's announcements at the conference will center around new Macs and "potentially a sneak preview of Mac OS X 10.6 Leopard."
However, the analyst also cited "sources" as he echoed a pair of speculative reports (1, 2) from Apple bloggers this week, indicating the remote possibility that the Cupertino-based company may introduce a new "consumer device" that may be "an updated version of AppleTV and/or Time Capsule with enhanced capabilities including the ability to access personal content from anywhere on the Internet."
"Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an Apple event," he said. "However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."
Wu continues to believe that Apple is also hard at work on new, lower-cost iPhones and other larger form factor touchscreen devices, but doesn't expect those products to see daylight until sometime in the future.
"Our sense is that investor expectations [for Macworld] are fairly modest since it was announced that CEO Steve Jobs wouldn't be the keynote speaker," he added. "Nonetheless, we view new Macs as a positive catalyst as Apple's desktop business (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Pro) needs a refresh to re-ignite sales."
Meanwhile, the Kaufman Bros. analyst said his sources indicate that the recently refreshed MacBooks and MacBook Pros continue to experience robust demand. That said, he still called upon Apple to loosen its grip on premium pricing and introduce lower price points on some of its products given the macroeconomic environment.
"We continue to believe Apple is one of the better names to own in this tough macroeconomic environment, given its strong fundamentals," he said.
Wu maintains a Buy rating and $120 price target on shares of Apple.
Comments
Speaking of boards, why do I feel like hitting Shaw Wu with a 2 x 4 every time I read
one of his releases?
With a month to prepare for the keynote with good training, I think you could expect a great sales show from an ameture.
Saying that there will be no new products because Steve Jobs is not doing the keynote is false reasoning to begin with, and to base an analysis on it just shows (yet again) how much hocus-pocus and general BS goes into the average financial analysts report.
Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.
I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.
Possible, it depends on how the release was worded. They might have hedged their wording a bit.
Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.
There were a few that did, but they were heckled for breaking with the crowd and were told they didn't know what they were talking about. Like every other culture, subculture, industry or trade, there is a risk of group think.
I think it is pretty absurd to assume no new products are coming because Mr. Jobs isn't doing the keynote. There are already rumours of new iMacs and Mac minis with great credibility. When Mr. Wu calls Mac OS 10.6 "Leopard" and not "Snow Leopard" then he has no credibility.
I thought he lost his credibility years ago. He's just treading water now, watching the AI boards for more rumors he can peddle to his clueless clients.
"However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."
and given the recent history of having other folks on the stage during announcements, I'd said this is a certainty.
Phil presents this time, but he should call up Steve via iChat to give the "one more thing"...
Maybe not this keynote, but I imagine the ultimate one-more-thing would be an iChat call from Phil to Steve only to have Steve pop out from behind the stage revealing that he is video-chatting from his brand new iPhone video. How cool would that be? Kind of in the same vein as the iSight inclusion into the MacBook Pro like Steve-Phil did a couple of years ago.
This would be an instant stock jump of 15-20%
At least I can keep dreaming.
Maybe not this keynote, but I imagine the ultimate one-more-thing would be an iChat call from Phil to Steve only to have Steve pop out from behind the stage revealing that he is video-chatting from his brand new iPhone video. How cool would that be? Kind of in the same vein as the iSight inclusion into the MacBook Pro like Steve-Phil did a couple of years ago.
This would be an instant stock jump of 15-20%
I'd love for that to happen. But there is one more thing... AAPL always drops after every keynote.
That short iPhone floating on the Internet would be a disappointment to me at least.
Jobs has a rare ability. Asking someone else to take over is asking for too much.
New products? Where are the rumors? We should have seen leaked pics by now. The biggest rumor this time around has been Wal-mart.
I'd love for that to happen. But there is one more thing... AAPL always drops after every keynote.
He he he. EXCEPT with the original iPhone announcement. The only stock to drop that day was RIM's. AAPL closed at an all-time high that day an kept rising all that week!
Probably won't happen until the network is faster anyway - but it does have to happen sometime. . . .
Skip
Mac touch FTW?
I really really REALLY think they should make this. But I don't know :
a. how do you type on it? thumbs?
b. how does it stand up when you're not holding it?
(i'm assuming your Mac Touch is in a tablet form factor....)
I really really REALLY think they should make this. But I don't know :
a. how do you type on it? thumbs?
b. how does it stand up when you're not holding it?
(i'm assuming your Mac Touch is in a tablet form factor....)
How do you type on a keyboard when you're not holding it? This would be similar, it would have a pop-out stand Murph, pop it out and place Mac touch (tablet) on a desk or table where it rests on the stand at about 17º, a good angle for typing and looking at the screen at the same time, at least if you're not typing a full novel
Just like my mockup:
(only the stand is around the back obviously)
When not on your desk, but rather in your hands, you push the rear rest back into the device in the "hidden" position. Pop it out, pop it in - depending on how your using it at that moment. Example; on a doctor's desk, he'd have it out the whole time, resting on the desk.
Closed app store? Possibly.
I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.
It is certainly possible. The thing is where are the leaks or solid rumors of a new product? Something that Steve and the rest of us can yet excited about.
I also think Apple will expand upon the last couple of years and simple schedule new releases every week for the first couple of months. This keeps the buzz going and spreads out demand on servers for software updates.
Sadly I really think that we will see a lot ofvhardware updates but no new platforms to deliver Mac OS/X or Mobile on. The only big if is Nano iPhone.
Saying that there will be no new products because Steve Jobs is not doing the keynote is false reasoning to begin with, and to base an analysis on it just shows (yet again) how much hocus-pocus and general BS goes into the average financial analysts report.
This is true to an extent, I actually believe Apple is being honest about it's approach which actually follows a general trend in industry.
The bigger issue in my mind is the lack of good sound leaks. Not rumors but good old fashion leaks of info. Currently there is nothing with the detail needed to get excited.
Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.
You must be a slave to the liberal media if you believe the above. There where many warnings as much as two years before the banks melted down. Many of those warnings where very specific about the issue with mortgages.
The problem with mortgages is that elements in both the Democrate & Republican parties pushed the idea that access to loans would be good for the development or redevelopment of blighted area. The idea being that ownership increases pride in the communities. There is one big problem here, people have to be able and willing to repay the loan. Many where not willing or able and frankly demonstrates that people in government don't understand the mindset of the welfare crowd. Coupled with that is the desire of many cities to keep property prices artificially high and you end up with simple math problems that lead to unsustainable markets.
What is funny is not more than a couple of weeks ago somebody in authority suggested that Detroit needs access to low cost loans. It is like they can't learn even during a depression.