Apple seen resisting recession, adding new iPhone models

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 38
    virgil-tb2virgil-tb2 Posts: 1,416member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    ... Apples reluctance or inability to get new products out the door is a huge problem that has to be addressed. Note the word NEW as I don't see another revision to iMac as a new product, for the desktop I'm talking new platforms. Even the iPhone segment has not been served well as one model / form factor is not enough. Frankly it looks like Apple already has management issues when it comes to keeping the product line up fresh. ...



    I'd just like to point out that this idea (that Apple has trouble with both the diversity of it's product line and "pushing product out the door"), is against all conventional wisdom and pretty much the opposite of consensus on the subject by anyone with any deep knowledge of Apple's practices. At least, if it's true it has been kept very secret from the very people who like to study these things. It also fly's in the face of some of the facts that are known like the wild success of the *single* iPhone model and the long, strong, history of regular hardware refreshes for most Apple products.



    Bully for you if it turns out you are right and everyone else is wrong, ... but I don't think so.
  • Reply 22 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post


    Does this guy actually get paid for this kind of analysis? His advice to Apple to improve iPhone sales is to do what the competition is doing with their phones? The same competition they are slaying by doing things differently? A battery (removeable)? Yeah, that non-removable battery thing really sunk the iPod, didn't it. Jeez.



    Possible explanations: 1) he has his head so far up his spreadsheet that he is missing the forest for the trees, 2) he is an Apple hater allowing his bias to color his analysis, 3) he just doesn't get it.



    I can't believe any of them get paid!



    They stick to their orthodox MBA theory (with blind, religious zeal) in the face of all current and historical evidence to the contrary.

    .... and the gall! They are proven to be way off one day and go at it again the next day as if it never happened. They have hides like rhinos!



    Why does anyone bother to publish their opinions?



    You could get a more accurate prognosis by flipping a coin.
  • Reply 23 of 38
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    You should read up on Tim Cook. He's been running things within Apple for quite some time. Apple is not at all a ship without a captain.



    I agree the desktop line is far over due its refresh but its difficult to say unless you have knowledge of what going on behind the scenes. It maybe a strategy to introduce new products right when Apple feels that sales are about to severely decline.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    The other thing that is very important is that a ship without a captain is bound to wander the seas. Apples reluctance or inability to get new products out the door is a huge problem that has to be addressed. Note the word NEW as I don't see another revision to iMac as a new product, for the desktop I'm talking new platforms. Even the iPhone segment has not been served well as one model / form factor is not enough. Frankly it looks like Apple already has management issues when it comes to keeping the product line up fresh. You see it in these forums every day with people being feed up with the state of hardware.



  • Reply 24 of 38
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post


    Abramsky is constantly wrong. Like, you can set you're watch by what he says. (knowing it's wrong)

    I notice people tend to like the guys that say what they agree with.

    You're down on Apple, so I can understand you being in agreement with this hack.



    I'm not down on Apple as frankly last year I became a customer (iPhone & MBP) but I do not see it as a good investment opportunity. At least right now I don't. More than 50% of that negativity comes from market conditions and the opportunities currently exposed.



    There is a big concern as to what Apple is up to with hardware for the Mac line up. Unlike many I expect Apple to address that shortly. When they do I'm expecting more innovation than we have seen in the last year or so. If that innovation is not there then there will be issues.



    In any event being down on Apple as an investment is not the same thing as being down on them as a source of consumer products.

    Quote:



    I don't disagree that there are warning signs in SOME of the numbers. But what you seem to leave out, is Apple is handing everyone else their A$$.



    I'm not sure that is the correct way to interpet the info. Apple did well last quarter in some areas but that does not imply doing well in the future.



    There is now a possibility that people see Apple as the safe bet in a hard reccession when it comes to consumer products. If that is the case then maybe sales will remain high this quarter. If so that could be a sign of a major shift in public perception.

    Quote:



    I think you're right, this last quarter was the Christmas season. Not sure if you noticed, but last year Christmas was in the same quarter.

    Next year, Christmas will also be in the first quarter.

    Kind of makes it easy to compare numbers when Christmas doesn't move around.



    That is all well and good but you mid the point. That is people taking last quarters numbers and projecting or hoping that they are indicators for the next (this) quarter.



    I just believe that is a mistake. Mind you I'm been online for some time indicating that the reccession is here but grossly over sold. I still believe Apples traditional customer base has money but they will be careful about what they spend that money on. Right now much of Apples line up doesn't include the fresh hardware that will invite the careful spender. That leaves Apple exposed for this quarter.

    Quote:



    As for how bad the numbers were, biggest ever. Sales. Profit. etc.



    In a recession.



    The problem is the nature of the reccession we are currently in. It is not at all like previous recessions in my mind as much of the economy has not been affected. More so much of this downturn is media generated and promoted. Of course many don't want to believe this but you have to ask yourself if the economy was that bad why are so many companies doing so well? Especially companies like Apple who have an undeserved rep for high prices.

    Quote:

    Go look at Nokia. (ouch)



    Yeah what about them? Is it the recession or very strong competition from Apple and Rim? The current recession just gives companies a prepackaged excuse for bad performance. There isn't always a relationship though as poor products are poor products recession or not.

    Quote:

    Ask the people layed off at MicroSoft today if they see "trouble on the horizon" at Apple. (double ouch)



    Usually people are very angery after a layoff so talking to them likely would not produce rational responses. However those layed off are very likely to talk about a lack of direction at MS and poor management then they are to comment on Apple or the recession.



    In any event you do make a point and I hope that some of those now free of MS will post to this thread. I'd like to know myself how many would blame the recession in preference to the management and product issues MS has. In any event what is your personal take here?

    Quote:

    I'm not saying there couldn't be a big downturn around the corner, but if that happens it will absolutely KILL the weaker companies like Rimm and Palm before any real problem surfaces for 31 bucks in cash on hand per share Apple.



    What you seem to mis is that I'm talking about Apple as a investment for somebody looking to make money in the stock market. In that context they are far from optimal. That due entirely to the many severly undervalued companies available right now.

    Quote:



    Reality.



    Reality is looking at the whole market and the conditions that are current. Speculation is taking a guess on where we will be in the future. Since you are talking about speculation, why not speculate on the stocks that offer the greatest potential for return?



    Now if you are not the sort of investor that invests for a big return or just likes to hold Apple then this whole discussion is worthless.





    Dave
  • Reply 25 of 38
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Rule #1 of investing: Do not confuse good/bad company with good/bad investment.



    Which sums up my points just fine - thanks.



    The whole point here being that there are far more money making opportunities out there than Apple. Some of them priced very nicely.



    Quote:



    If you are unsure of what I am talking about, can I be your broker?



    Not if you can't read for content. I'm making it pretty damn clear that Apple is overpriced at the moment considering other market opportunities.



    Dave
  • Reply 26 of 38
    The refusal of these analyst to openly address either Job's health or his value as a percent of Apple's stock evaluation makes any investment in Apple a risk. No single individual since Edison has been so closely aligned with his company's identity, especially not as an essential innovator and driver of the firm. To ignore this fact borders on fraud, which is exactly why the SEC has opened an investigation into whether Apple has been covering up Job's true health status for longer than they are admitting. Expect this to result in a nasty stockholders' class action suit and for some of these analysts to likewise get pinched.
  • Reply 27 of 38
    ibillibill Posts: 400member
    Abramsky is a moron.
  • Reply 28 of 38
    chris_cachris_ca Posts: 2,543member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pk22901 View Post


    iPod Phone, having no expensive data plan, would make Apple billions and take sales away from competitors.



    Yeah, because the iPhone with an "expensive" data plan has not made billions for Apple, nor taken away sales from competitors.

    Though an "iPod Phone" would take away sales from the iPhone.
  • Reply 29 of 38
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    I don't see it that way at all, Abramsky has a more reasoned approach than many of the analysts. Frankly I believe Apple is way over priced relative to other companies available on the market.



    Care to show your calculations on that? To me, Apple looks much lower priced than RIMM or DELL, once you factor in the cash horde, lack of debt, faster growth, and apparent recession resistance.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheSnarkmeister View Post


    The refusal of these analyst to openly address either Job's health or his value as a percent of Apple's stock evaluation makes any investment in Apple a risk. No single individual since Edison has been so closely aligned with his company's identity, especially not as an essential innovator and driver of the firm. To ignore this fact borders on fraud, which is exactly why the SEC has opened an investigation into whether Apple has been covering up Job's true health status for longer than they are admitting. Expect this to result in a nasty stockholders' class action suit and for some of these analysts to likewise get pinched.



    The current stock price is so low, they have already priced in "The Death of Steve Jobs" and a full blown depression.
  • Reply 30 of 38
    ibillibill Posts: 400member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheSnarkmeister View Post


    The refusal of these analyst to openly address either Job's health or his value as a percent of Apple's stock evaluation makes any investment in Apple a risk. No single individual since Edison has been so closely aligned with his company's identity, especially not as an essential innovator and driver of the firm. To ignore this fact borders on fraud, which is exactly why the SEC has opened an investigation into whether Apple has been covering up Job's true health status for longer than they are admitting. Expect this to result in a nasty stockholders' class action suit and for some of these analysts to likewise get pinched.



    Sorry, but I think this is FUD. Analysts have addressed this issue on numerous occasions. MS downgraded AAPL last Fall on concerns over Steve Jobs' health. There have been at least two other significant drops in AAPL valuation due to this issue that I can recall. Frankly, I think it's both overstated, and also at least somewhat baked into the stock.



    Personally, I'm more concerned about the economy's impact to AAPL than I am over Steve's health situation, and the results for this last quarter go a long way to alleviate that concern in my mind. As for leadership at Apple, I've been following the company for a long time, and I'm satisfied that they are operating more effectively right now that they have at any other time in the history of the company. The executive team is absolutely second to none. Considering these factors, and what they have been able to accomplish over the last several quarters, I would suggest that their corporate strategy and product roadmap is defined and in place going forward for at least 8 quarters and probably further.



    Considering the major correction that has occurred and the recent devaluation in AAPL, this is the absolutely the best time to invest. Look at their fundamentals, they are absolutely stellar. They have more liquid assets than many banks, and they make products that sell even during a recession. And you can take that to the bank!
  • Reply 31 of 38
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    Care to show your calculations on that? To me, Apple looks much lower priced than RIMM or DELL, once you factor in the cash horde, lack of debt, faster growth, and apparent recession resistance.



    Do you really want to know the thought process of someone who recently posted that

    Ford was a less risky investment than Apple?
  • Reply 32 of 38
    One subject per article pleeeeze!
  • Reply 33 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Which sums up my points just fine - thanks. The whole point here being that there are far more money making opportunities out there than Apple. Some of them priced very nicely.



    That's a laughable assertion, given the stream-of-consciousness nature of your analysis.



    To paraphrase e1618978 above, care to put some numbers on "your points" and how some of the others are "priced very nicely"?
  • Reply 34 of 38
    ivan.rnn01ivan.rnn01 Posts: 1,822member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Apple could boost iPhone upgrades and global iPhone momentum with a next gen iPhone 3G (HSPA) 'Pro', sporting a faster processor and graphics engine (gaming, video, multitasking), improved camera (resolution, flash, video), higher memory, battery," he wrote.



    Yope. 3G's battery should be fixed with no further arguments... I saw better radios too... Khm... That assisted GPS is surprisingly good enough... Better camera? Would appreciate... 3.5G? a la mode, sure, don't see the practical use though... will those telecom's guys be ready? Multitasking? With the display 480 by 320? Nice useless toy...
  • Reply 35 of 38
    Whether you like Abramsky or not, he is absolutely right on with stating the need of an iphone without data plan. Plenty of people would love to have the features of the iphone but have no need (or cannot afford!) to be constantly connected to the internet. Two options: 1) sell an iphone without 3G radio or 2) change the terms with carriers so that they do not force iphone buyers into 2-year data plans.



    With AT&T, you can easily get other smartphones (including the new Blackberry Bold 3G with WiFi) without data plan. Yes, the Bold costs $100 more than the cheapest iphone even after rebates, but it takes only 3 months to be even - over the course of 2 years, one would spend $620 more with the iphone because AT&T insists on the data plan.
  • Reply 36 of 38




    Of all the guys at apple we've had the joy of meeting at the keynotes I think Jonathan Ive should get the CEO seat when Steve can no longer do the Job.
  • Reply 37 of 38
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    Apple will prop up their desktop sales by introducing significant processor and GPU upgrades to its iMac line - possibly even with a price cut - and the long-rumored Mac mini upgrade, which they may rename the Mac nano to reflect its new form factor.



    How's that for one run-on sentence that even William Faulkner would be proud of?!
  • Reply 38 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    I predict the new name is : ApplePhone!

    To match its retarded sibbling- AppleTV.



    It's charming to see someone who can't spell "sibling" calling something "retarded."
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