Gartner predicts sharpest decline PC sales ever
Worldwide PC shipments will tumble by the largest percentage ever recorded in history this year, with desktops hit especially hard as mini-notebooks boost growth for mobile PCs, according to Gartner.
PC shipments are predicted to total 257 million units this year, which would represent an 11.9 percent decline from 2008, the firm said in a report released Monday morning. That would erase the previous worst decline in 2001 when shipments fell 3.2 percent.
"The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious," said Gartner research director George Shiffler. "Slower GDP growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms."
The research firm believes desktops will decline a staggering 31.9 percent from 2008 while mobile PCs will see help from growth in the mini-notebooks ("netbooks") sector. However, the average price for a netbook is expected to reach $399 even as screen sizes increase, down from a 2008 average of $450, meaning it won't be enough to stem the market's decline. Netbooks will make up a small 8 percent of total PC shipments.
Mature markets are currently the strongest market for the small, low-powered machines, but even emerging markets may have interest as prices keep falling. Netbooks excluded, laptops in general will grow just 2.7 percent, according to the report.
What this will mean for Apple is not yet known, but the Cupertino-based company did enjoy Mac sales growth last quarter despite a contracting overall market.
Apple, starting with chief executive Steve Jobs, has foreseen the decline of desktops for some time, and a shift that firmly took hold around 2005 has led to more notebook sales each quarter than desktops for the Mac maker.
While Gartner's predictions may not inspire confidence, Apple's strength in portables is seen as a positive for its Mac business, which Wall Street analysts have predicted will essentially tread water in 2009. Needham's Charlie Wolf has said Mac shipments will be "flat" this year, while the Royal Bank of Canada's Mike Abramsky offered the opposing view: "Beyond an ongoing transition from desktops to laptops, deteriorating consumer spending in our view materially contributed to slowing Desktop sales."
Finally, Apple executives have repeatedly denied any interest in competing for netbook sales.
"We're watching that space," said acting chief executive Tim Cook, "but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that's much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays."
"We've got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they're happy with," he said.
PC shipments are predicted to total 257 million units this year, which would represent an 11.9 percent decline from 2008, the firm said in a report released Monday morning. That would erase the previous worst decline in 2001 when shipments fell 3.2 percent.
"The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious," said Gartner research director George Shiffler. "Slower GDP growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms."
The research firm believes desktops will decline a staggering 31.9 percent from 2008 while mobile PCs will see help from growth in the mini-notebooks ("netbooks") sector. However, the average price for a netbook is expected to reach $399 even as screen sizes increase, down from a 2008 average of $450, meaning it won't be enough to stem the market's decline. Netbooks will make up a small 8 percent of total PC shipments.
Mature markets are currently the strongest market for the small, low-powered machines, but even emerging markets may have interest as prices keep falling. Netbooks excluded, laptops in general will grow just 2.7 percent, according to the report.
What this will mean for Apple is not yet known, but the Cupertino-based company did enjoy Mac sales growth last quarter despite a contracting overall market.
Apple, starting with chief executive Steve Jobs, has foreseen the decline of desktops for some time, and a shift that firmly took hold around 2005 has led to more notebook sales each quarter than desktops for the Mac maker.
While Gartner's predictions may not inspire confidence, Apple's strength in portables is seen as a positive for its Mac business, which Wall Street analysts have predicted will essentially tread water in 2009. Needham's Charlie Wolf has said Mac shipments will be "flat" this year, while the Royal Bank of Canada's Mike Abramsky offered the opposing view: "Beyond an ongoing transition from desktops to laptops, deteriorating consumer spending in our view materially contributed to slowing Desktop sales."
Finally, Apple executives have repeatedly denied any interest in competing for netbook sales.
"We're watching that space," said acting chief executive Tim Cook, "but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that's much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays."
"We've got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they're happy with," he said.
Comments
People obviously are liking them; they are selling.
Oh how I still wish Apple came out with an 11" Pro laptop instead of the MacBook Air.
PC shipments are predicted to total 257 million units this year, which would represent an 11.9 percent decline from 2008, the firm said in a report released Monday morning. That would erase the previous worst decline in 2001 when shipments fell 3.2 percent.
Well, I know I should let it go, but it wont "erase" the 2001 decline. it might "eclipse" it or "replace" it as the new worst.
Sorry, I know semantics posts can be insufferable...
That should boost sales quite a bit i'd suspect.
Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.
I know - right? It's obviously a slooow day in the news except that the stock market keeps tanking.
Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.
No, but it requires a study to figure out how much it is declining, and how much that decline is bound to hurt Apple.
Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.
Unfortunately, you under rate the capability of our countries "public" and their ability to understand, if not told by "studies" done by "researchers"!
Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.
Except that netbooks weigh 2 lbs. and less.
Unfortunately, you under rate the capability of our countries "public" and their ability to understand, if not told by "studies" done by "researchers"!
Sound like a lot of "pork" to me.
Well, I guess it's good that Windows 7 will be so freaking amazing that people will be throwing their PC's out the window and trampling over each other in a hysterical frenzy at Best Buy's doors to get a new machine that might be capable of running it.
No, but it requires a study to figure out how much it is declining, and how much that decline is bound to hurt Apple.
Except that it's a prediction and didn't state any affects on Apple.
Cum'on - it's a worldwide economic recession on the brink of a depression- you need a study to figure out that there's going to be a significant decline in just about everything?
Except that it's a prediction and didn't state any affects on Apple.
Cum'on - it's a worldwide economic recession on the brink of a depression- you need a study to figure out that there's going to be a significant decline in just about everything?
Investors need to know how significant that decline is going to be. There is going to be a significant decline in car sales, for example - but investors need to know how likely that decline is going to result in bankruptcy for GM, and for that they need to get pretty accurate predictions on how bad it will be.
Just because you don't care about the differences between 14% and 16% decline does not mean that the study was useless to everyone.
Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.
When I was younger, I wore pants with large pockets on the sides of my legs - maybe those will become popular again (not fashionable, since they are worn by nerds mostly, but popular).
Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.
They do however, fit into a portable DVD player case which is MUCH smaller than a laptop case. My fiance carries her netbook comfortably in her purse. Too big for pants (get an iPod touch then!) but definitely small enough for other things people may carry with them at times. That and its a lot cheaper than a full fledged laptop. Wonder why these machines are eroding away at the other markets?
"Gartner predicts sharpest decline in PC sales... EVAR!"
Of course PC sales are down cause everyone is buying macs. In the pub next door to me I saw 2 drunks and a girl all using MacBooks while chatting and drinking. When did it become cool to use a laptop in a pub???
One question... were the 'drunks' male or female?
Shouldn't this headline be delivered by a gum-snapping Valley Girl?
"Gartner predicts sharpest decline in PC sales... EVAR!"