Apple's Mac shipments rebounding sharply in recent weeks
An aggressive back-to-school promotion and a more affordably-priced overhaul to Apple's MacBook Pro notebook line are boosting Apple's personal computer shipments to levels not seen since last October, shortly before the economic climate caught up with the Mac maker in earnest.
In a Systems and PC Hardware report released Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, renowned for under-estimating and under-valuing Apple for some time, is pressing forth with her renewed bullish outlook on the Cupertino-based company.
In particular, she points to "several data points" that suggest Mac shipments have regained enough momentum that they'll beat her second quarter and 2009 calendar estimates by a recognizable margin. The first of which was the broad refresh of the MacBook Pro line early last month that will "likely provided a catalyst for growth in both the June and September quarters"
Huberty also provided a graph based on weekly data from market research firm NPD that points to a "steady acceleration of Mac shipments over the last few weeks" since the MacBook Pro line saw its refresh. But even prior to that launch, "Apple began to outperform the broader commercial PC segment -- with commercial Mac shipments up 25% month-over-month in May versus market growth of just 1%," she wrote.
As a result, Huberty now sees Apple reporting sales of 2.5 million Macs for the three-month period ended June, up 4% from her previous estimate of 2.4 million Macs. If accurate, the forecast would imply 12% quarterly growth -- which is just below the company's 14% average over the past 3 years -- and a more than respectable 1% year-over-year decline given the economic situation.
The Morgan Stanley analyst also increased her shipment forecast for rivals Dell and HP on the heels of her broader market growth assumptions, but said Apple "offers the most upside especially in light of healthy retail inventory levels and recent signs of improving commercial and retail Mac sales."
Huberty similarly increased her 2009 and 2010 calendar year Mac unit estimates to 10.2 million and 11.7 million, up from 9.7 million and 10.3 million, respectively.
In a Systems and PC Hardware report released Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, renowned for under-estimating and under-valuing Apple for some time, is pressing forth with her renewed bullish outlook on the Cupertino-based company.
In particular, she points to "several data points" that suggest Mac shipments have regained enough momentum that they'll beat her second quarter and 2009 calendar estimates by a recognizable margin. The first of which was the broad refresh of the MacBook Pro line early last month that will "likely provided a catalyst for growth in both the June and September quarters"
Huberty also provided a graph based on weekly data from market research firm NPD that points to a "steady acceleration of Mac shipments over the last few weeks" since the MacBook Pro line saw its refresh. But even prior to that launch, "Apple began to outperform the broader commercial PC segment -- with commercial Mac shipments up 25% month-over-month in May versus market growth of just 1%," she wrote.
As a result, Huberty now sees Apple reporting sales of 2.5 million Macs for the three-month period ended June, up 4% from her previous estimate of 2.4 million Macs. If accurate, the forecast would imply 12% quarterly growth -- which is just below the company's 14% average over the past 3 years -- and a more than respectable 1% year-over-year decline given the economic situation.
The Morgan Stanley analyst also increased her shipment forecast for rivals Dell and HP on the heels of her broader market growth assumptions, but said Apple "offers the most upside especially in light of healthy retail inventory levels and recent signs of improving commercial and retail Mac sales."
Huberty similarly increased her 2009 and 2010 calendar year Mac unit estimates to 10.2 million and 11.7 million, up from 9.7 million and 10.3 million, respectively.
Comments
First, there is still a line outside the store for the iPhone buyers. While the rest of the mall look sparse, Apple Store looked like an amusement park in summer. What other company at this time will have customers standing in line to get into the store? This is a testament of the Apple brand.
There is no recession at Apple Stores!
.....Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, renowned for under-estimating and under-valuing Apple for some time, is pressing forth with her renewed bullish outlook on the Cupertino-based company.
Uh oh. I wonder if it's time to sell.....
Just kidding.
Welcome to the club, Katy!
It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone except the naysayers. The new Macbook Pros are flying out of Apple Store. I was at an Apple Store in Orange County California yesterday the 30th, and business was brisk.
First, there is still a line outside the store for the iPhone buyers. While the rest of the mall look sparse, Apple Store looked like an amusement park in summer. What other company at this time will have customers standing in line to get into the store? This is a testament of the Apple brand.
There is no recession at Apple Stores!
Are you sure it wasn't people jumping in before the sales tax rise?
An aggressive back-to-school promotion and a more affordably-priced overhaul to Apple's MacBook Pro notebook line are boosting Apple's personal computer shipments to levels not seen since last October, shortly before the economic climate caught up with the Mac maker in earnest.
In a
Huberty similarly increased her 2009 and 2010 calendar year Mac unit estimates to 10.2 million and 11.7 million, up from 9.7 million and 10.3 million, respectively.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
The MBP line is the finest laptops ever made. Now offers a sd card slot.
The entry level 13" is a way powerful uni body >sleek> fast >light> great battery< green> superb glossy glass screen> touch pad >stocked with great software and of course snow lep .
The upper level MBP 15" 3.02GHz 7200rpm 500g UNI body is screaming with a second powerful GRU chip <nvida 9600> APPLE now make a great gaming machine. My one will be here by july 9th apple tells me it is made to order oversea's for me. Which is fine because any parts upgrades i will get .
I can't breathe .
And the 17" uni is also a wonderful POWERFUL machine for graphic pro's
offering all of above and a higher end 1080p screen and a matte option and a express card slot also .
And the 999$ mac book white plastic is no slouch either, It will be around as a classic for a long time .
I can see no reason not to buy a MBP right now .
No reason.
Why apple does no have a 35% share in its price class is beyond me .
peace
9
Thanks.
The MBP line is the finest laptops ever made. Now offers a sd card slot.
The entry level 13" is a way powerful uni body >sleek> fast >light> great battery< green> superb glossy glass screen> touch pad >stocked with great software and of course snow lep .
The upper level MBP 15" 3.02GHz 7200rpm 500g UNI body is screaming with a second powerful GRU chip <nvida 9600> APPLE now make a great gaming machine. My one will be here by july 9th apple tells me it is made to order oversea's for me. Which is fine because any parts upgrades i will get .
I can't breathe .
And the 17" uni is also a wonderful POWERFUL machine for graphic pro's
offering all of above and a higher end 1080p screen and a matte option and a express card slot also .
And the 999$ mac book white plastic is no slouch either, It will be around as a classic for a long time .
I can see no reason not to buy a MBP right now .
No reason.
Why apple does no have a 35% share in its price class is beyond me .
peace
9
On another thought, maybe this increase in notebook sales will finally drive Apple to release a Quad-Core chip for the desktop iMac. (Core i7 would be nice, Apple, but it's not a deal-breaker. We just need *four* cores.)
What is beyond you is reality. That is not such a bad thing however, as who cares what the facts on the ground are? I mean, any company that can tell you they are personally making you a computer that is super duper .. and being done thousands of miles from you pillow.. is pretty cool. What is really neat is that it upgrades in production so you get the latest latest bells and whistles right up until they slap it in the box (at which time it is officially obsolete and you are just a number).
i am too becoming breathless and can't breathe... just thinking about all of these wonderful wonderful things happening for you..
seriously, your enthusiasm is fantastically fun to read..
I know i am going to be blasted for writing this. sorry sorry sorry .. it is just so early in the day to be so up up up!!! I need to go take a cold shower right now..
I did the 12 months interest free financing, but could only get $1500 credit, so I guess the wife's iBook gets replaced first and my 17" MBP will need to wait a few more months.
And now we see where Microsoft's attack ads have failed. Instead of drawing more people away, the ads have woken people up to see that, especially in this economy, Macs have the better long-term value. Way to go, Microsoft!
In the MSFT world, the PC fanboys are claiming victory since Apple was FORCED to lower their prices and margins, and despite that, still only has 1 laptop under $1000. So in the long run, Apple will make less profit, have to cut back on innovation, and thus, fail against the mighty MSFT team.
(Delusional!)
So in the long run, Apple will make less profit, have to cut back on innovation, and thus, fail against the mighty MSFT team.
When is this long run supposed to start? Not anytime soon, from what I can see.
Do you sell apple products too? I think apple would be lucky to have you on their team..
What is beyond you is reality. That is not such a bad thing however, as who cares what the facts on the ground are? I mean, any company that can tell you they are personally making you a computer that is super duper .. and being done thousands of miles from you pillow.. is pretty cool. What is really neat is that it upgrades in production so you get the latest latest bells and whistles right up until they slap it in the box (at which time it is officially obsolete and you are just a number).
i am too becoming breathless and can't breathe... just thinking about all of these wonderful wonderful things happening for you..
seriously, your enthusiasm is fantastically fun to read..
I know i am going to be blasted for writing this. sorry sorry sorry .. it is just so early in the day to be so up up up!!! I need to go take a cold shower right now..
You may be kidding me but i am blind to that.
be cause i just felt them put in the 9600 chip <plink>
i know i know I am acting like a 3 yr old but i waited over a decade for a gaming machine and i never took the msft road . I stayed loyal / And one day i saw the 3 chip design and I knew that one day apple with openCL GCS would find a way to get all 3 chips to run at once with out a heat overload. For now the 9600 will do.
SO COD4 awaits me soon and a bunch of C AND C GAMES...
ANYWAY thank you for the boost
peace
9
The thing that is surprising is that these ne Mac Book Pros are incredibly good buys now. It is apparent that many are quickly realizing this with the increased sales. For the back to school crowd the 12 & 15" models are excellent student machines with the hardware features to take them through four years of school easily.
So yeah it is no surprise that sales are brisk, they are the ideal machine based on currently available technology. Nothing really competes with them overall.
Dave
Why apple does no have a 35% share in its price class is beyond me.
Actually, there have been several reports indicating that Apple had up to 60% of the USD 1,000+ laptop segment in the US in some quarters.
If you look at the e.g. the revenues and profits HP and Dell are reporting while selling x-times the number of items, this is not far-fetched. I really do not think Apple's above-1k-laptop share has been lower than 35% in the US at any point during the last 12-18 months. The percentage in Europe is certainly clearly lower, but the growth is enormous. After being the only Mac owner I personally know for ages... you see them everywhere right now. People (especially the non-techies) have always been scared to death to leave Windows ? it was a synonym for personal computing, and alternatives like OS/2 or Linux were doing everything needed to keep them scared. Since 10.3 this game has changed.
The MBP line is the finest laptops ever made. Now offers a sd card slot.
I can see no reason not to buy a MBP right now .
No reason.
Why apple does no have a 35% share in its price class is beyond me .
Pros want a 15in not just a 17in model to choose from
1. Non-Removable Battery for Pros on the go
2. No Matte on 15in
3. No EC slot on 15in
There are three reasons.
Pros want a 15in not just a 17in model to choose from
1. Non-Removable Battery for Pros on the go
2. No Matte on 15in
3. No EC slot on 15in
There are three reasons.
Not for me. And I consider myself a Pro, on or not on the go.
Apple has a lock on its market. Once switch, you stay.
Not for me. And I consider myself a Pro, on or not on the go.
Okay let us dispense with the semantics
MANY Pros want a 15in not just a 17in model to choose from
1. Non-Removable Battery for Pros on the go
2. No Matte on 15in
3. No EC slot on 15in
There are three reasons.
Pros want a 15in not just a 17in model to choose from
1. Non-Removable Battery for Pros on the go
2. No Matte on 15in
3. No EC slot on 15in
There are three reasons.
Not for me. And I consider myself a Pro, on or not on the go.
If i could add an express card / matte screen option on the 13/15" MBP I would .RES79 WE CARE about what you are saying.
There may be a software work around for the glare problem .
AN external battery pack via usb/fire wire may be on answer. SOME BATT PACKS SUPER CHARGE your batt while you work .
And I Tend to plug in every where I go .I even leave plug in cords or car chargers in select locations .
And 2 out if three ain't bad meat loaf .
2. No Matte on 15in
That's the one that bugs me the most. And now that there is one study that indicates glossy is bad for your head, I want matte even more.