Demand for Apple's 13" MacBook Pro may be outpacing supply
Apple's newly-coined 13-inch MacBook Pros appear to be off to a hot start, with the company reportedly having difficulty keeping some of the new models in stock as it enters the heart of the back-to-school buying season.
In a note to clients Tuesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster pointed out that the Apple online store is currently reflecting lead times of 7 to 10 business days for the faster of the two 13-inch MacBook Pros. He notes this is the most extensive delay affecting the company's 13-inch notebook models ever.
The analyst, which regularly tracks and records lead times for products on the Mac maker's online store, said he had to look back more than two years into his records to find similar delays, and even then they spanned just 5 to 7 business days.
With the entry-level 15-inch MacBook Pro using the same 2.53GHz Core 2 Duo chip also reflecting such delays, Munster put in a call to 10 Apple retail stores and found that 7 of them were short at least one of the 13-inch models, but not always the speedier model.
"We see this as a sign that demand is outpacing the company's build expectations, and it may take several weeks to reach a supply demand equilibrium," he told clients.
Shortages of Apple's mainstream notebook offerings comes just weeks after the company kicked off its back-to-school promotion offering students a free iPod touch with each Mac purchase and then rebranded its 13-inch unibody MacBooks as more premium offerings under the MacBook Pro moniker.
Meanwhile, Munster cited a series of recent disclosures in concluding that domestic sales of the new iPhone 3GS may also be tracking ahead of Apple's internal expectations. He notes that despite launching the device in just 8 countries this year (compared to 21 last year), the Cupertino-based company still managed to meet -- and likely beat -- its opening weekend iPhone 3G sales.
In particular, the analyst nodded towards a leaked memo from AT&T that suggests Apple may have been playing modest when it announced sales of "more than" 1 million iPhone 3GS units during the handset's first three days on the market.
"While Apple has indicated the 3GS launch was as good as the 3G launch a year earlier (both reached 1m units), AT&T has indicated that the June 2009 launch was its best-ever retail sales day and the largest order day in att.comÂ*history and (i.e. an improvement from the iPhone 3G)," he wrote.
As such, Munster said he flirted with raising his June quarter sales estimate of 5 million iPhones but ultimately decided to maintain his current numbers given that a successful iPhone 3GS launch had previously been baked into his model. His figures are also "significantly above" Wall Street consensus estimates for the quarter.
For Macs, the Piper Jaffray analyst said he's increasingly confident Apple will report sales of 2.2 million systems for the June quarter when it announces results a bit later this month. That compares to the nearly 2.5 million Macs the company sold during the same quarter one year ago.
In a note to clients Tuesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster pointed out that the Apple online store is currently reflecting lead times of 7 to 10 business days for the faster of the two 13-inch MacBook Pros. He notes this is the most extensive delay affecting the company's 13-inch notebook models ever.
The analyst, which regularly tracks and records lead times for products on the Mac maker's online store, said he had to look back more than two years into his records to find similar delays, and even then they spanned just 5 to 7 business days.
With the entry-level 15-inch MacBook Pro using the same 2.53GHz Core 2 Duo chip also reflecting such delays, Munster put in a call to 10 Apple retail stores and found that 7 of them were short at least one of the 13-inch models, but not always the speedier model.
"We see this as a sign that demand is outpacing the company's build expectations, and it may take several weeks to reach a supply demand equilibrium," he told clients.
Shortages of Apple's mainstream notebook offerings comes just weeks after the company kicked off its back-to-school promotion offering students a free iPod touch with each Mac purchase and then rebranded its 13-inch unibody MacBooks as more premium offerings under the MacBook Pro moniker.
Meanwhile, Munster cited a series of recent disclosures in concluding that domestic sales of the new iPhone 3GS may also be tracking ahead of Apple's internal expectations. He notes that despite launching the device in just 8 countries this year (compared to 21 last year), the Cupertino-based company still managed to meet -- and likely beat -- its opening weekend iPhone 3G sales.
In particular, the analyst nodded towards a leaked memo from AT&T that suggests Apple may have been playing modest when it announced sales of "more than" 1 million iPhone 3GS units during the handset's first three days on the market.
"While Apple has indicated the 3GS launch was as good as the 3G launch a year earlier (both reached 1m units), AT&T has indicated that the June 2009 launch was its best-ever retail sales day and the largest order day in att.comÂ*history and (i.e. an improvement from the iPhone 3G)," he wrote.
As such, Munster said he flirted with raising his June quarter sales estimate of 5 million iPhones but ultimately decided to maintain his current numbers given that a successful iPhone 3GS launch had previously been baked into his model. His figures are also "significantly above" Wall Street consensus estimates for the quarter.
For Macs, the Piper Jaffray analyst said he's increasingly confident Apple will report sales of 2.2 million systems for the June quarter when it announces results a bit later this month. That compares to the nearly 2.5 million Macs the company sold during the same quarter one year ago.
Comments
I went into an Apple Store to get my iPhone replaced and saw around 7 or 8 going thorughout the check out process, these certainly seem to be moving off the shelves fast.
command option eject
cool huh? sleeps it right off.
And here I thought I knew it all.
In my opinion, Apple is about to retire their MacBook Pro line next, shifting all mechanical devices to external sources in favor of MacBook Air type laptops.
Now that memory like SDXC can hold up to 2TB with 2x the speed of a 7,200 RPM hard drive, why use SSD or HD's anymore?
Also Intel is coming out with a new line of processors with integrated GPU and memory controller, we might be seeing the end of dedicated GPU's as well.
http://www.hardmac.com/news/2009/07/...ile-processors
So the new MacBook line coming might possibly have everything on the logic board, even the memory/storage, making them even cheaper to produce and thinner than before.
Sorry to break it to you.
i'm so surprised to hear that any of the MBP line is selling well. I never would have thought that anyone would want an internal battery, which guarantee's a service need at some point, & the totally unacceptable Glossy screen. I've been waiting & had planned to upgrade soon until I saw Apple's new MBP offerings. I'm so disappointed that i"m going to a "hackintosh" when my current 15" MBP dies. I guess you could say that my 12 yr. love affair with Apple has finally ended..
No, the internal battery does not guarantee a service need a some point. It is trivial for a user to replace the battery themselves. The benefits of internal batteries considerably outweigh the drawbacks. Read my posts in this recent thread.
I've got to give it to you on the glossy screen front - they really do suck. But for me, that's one minus point against a huge list of plus points. It's not bad enough to make me want to buy a PC.
I would genuinely like to know which PC you are planning on purchasing.
i'm so surprised to hear that any of the MBP line is selling well. I never would have thought that anyone would want an internal battery, which guarantee's a service need at some point, & the totally unacceptable Glossy screen. I've been waiting & had planned to upgrade soon until I saw Apple's new MBP offerings. I'm so disappointed that i"m going to a "hackintosh" when my current 15" MBP dies. I guess you could say that my 12 yr. love affair with Apple has finally ended..
As has been stated time and again, almost no one actually ever changes a laptop battery. And the new ones should last a couple times longer than the old ones... they should be at 80% capacity at 5 years. If you still want to use your laptop after that and that capacity isn't good enough for you, it can be swapped out quickly at an Apple Store for under $200. So I'm surprised that you're surprised that these things aren't wildly popular.
The glossy screen-- well, yeah, that's a bigger issue but a lot of people don't seem to mind.
and about the battery... sure, it'll be a minor inconvenience to have to take the computer into the store to get the battery replaced, but it's not like you'll have to do it every year. really. apple says it will last 5 years (which remains to be seen i suppose) and most people get a new computer way before that 5 year mark, so i really don't see the issue. i just replaced a 3 1/2 year old powerbook and i never replaced the battery (granted, i only got about 30 minutes of life out of it by the time i retired the computer). but i don't think the majority of users will worry about replacing the battery.
anyways, i can see why the 13" computers are selling fast, they are nice computers. and the price isn't bad either.
i'm so surprised to hear that any of the MBP line is selling well. I never would have thought that anyone would want an internal battery, which guarantee's a service need at some point, & the totally unacceptable Glossy screen. I've been waiting & had planned to upgrade soon until I saw Apple's new MBP offerings. I'm so disappointed that i"m going to a "hackintosh" when my current 15" MBP dies. I guess you could say that my 12 yr. love affair with Apple has finally ended..
You can get to the battery in the MacBook Pro models by undoing a few screws, see Other World Computing videos to learn how.
Replacing it with a third party alternative or refurb that's sure to come from online Mac retailers.
The screen can be replaced with a matte on MacBook Pros via TechRestore for a fee, violating your warranty I'm sure.
Or one can spring $6000 for this ultra matte one.
http://www.colorwarepc.com/p-183-ste...cbook-pro.aspx
Funny now matte screens have become a option only for the super rich.
What a way to force a upscale on people, give them eyestrain and headaches.
i was skeptical about the glossy screens, but honestly, it's not even an issue for me. sure, sometimes i'll catch a glimpse of my reflection, but overall, the screens are not as bad as some people make them out to be.
About the glossy screen. This screen on the MBP is a big improvement over the prior 13" MB screen. It is brighter with better contrast and the glossiness therefore appears reduced because of the intensity of the image emanating from the LED screen itself.
But are there not sheets you can buy to put over the screen to make it less reflective? Has anyone tried that? If so how do you like it?
This argument below is an excerpt taken from http://macmatte.wordpress.com where the raw poll data is found.
Most online polls show that 40% prefer matte, but 20% would still buy glossy if forced to do so. This means that 20% of past Apple users refuse to buy glossy Macs.
Skeptics have tried to dismiss the poll results by asserting that, if that many Mac purchasers really did prefer matte, then Apple?s sales figures would be falling, so the argument goes. That is not true.
Those people ? who point to Apple?s upward growth as vindication of the glossy-only policy ? are not taking into account that most of the impetus to switch to Apple comes from other factors, namely: the window of opportunity created by Microsoft Vista?s inadequacies, the halo effect of the iPod/iPhone, and from OSX?s perceived advantages over Windows Vista/XP. All these factors combined mean that, even if a substantial number of people detest glossy screens, Apple?s sales figures would still show an upward trend ? not because everyone loves glossy screens ? but in spite of it.
Read the user comments at http://macmatte.wordpress.com Many users said they?ll be forced to keep using their existing matte hardware rather than upgrading now. Therefore, a deleterious effect on sales may only become noticeable until around 3-5 years later when these holdouts are forced to replace hardware, and then have to make the choice of whether to stick with Apple.
Others dismiss the matte-trend in the polls by rationalizing that the type of people who post comments on websites tend to be professional computer users and computer geeks, i.e. by inference, not representative of the total, overall market that Apple is trying to reach. In other words, what they?re arguing is that even if the polls indicate 40-75% like matte, that?s a minority because the majority of Apple users don?t read Mac website or post comments on Mac websites.
I would argue differently. In sales & marketing, the Pareto principle ? 80/20 Rule ? applies, namely that most sales come from a core of users. Equal sales are not generated equally across the population. The 80/20 Rule says that 80% of your sales come from 20% of your clients. Therefore, I would argue that people who post comments on Mac websites are more representative of this minority that generates the most sales. Why do we read Mac websites? So we can buy the stuff that interests us. Mac website readers would tend to be more representative of this core of high-volume purchasers who get multiple Mac?s not just one, and who upgrade more frequently than the peripheral buyers. Any marketing-savvy person will laugh if you think you can ignore the core minority who are fanatical about your products ? because they?re the minority that bring the bulk of your sales. For this reason, the online polls are telling Apple that their core, fanatical minority are crying out loudly for a matte screen option on all Macs.
In other words, Apple?s figures could have been better, if the matte option had been there. Example: if Apple?s profits increased to $6 billion, when it might have increased to $7.2 million ? the glossy people argue the increase to $6 billion proves everyone loves glossy ? whereas, the matte crowd argue it could have instead been $7.2 billion in higher sales, if not for the people turned away because of all-glossy screens.
Where do I get the hypothetical increase from $6 billion to $7.2 billion potential? At comment No. 88 below, the polls indicate that close to 20% will not buy Macs with glossy screens ? this includes people like myself who outright refuse, and also those who did buy glossy but later regretted it. Therefore, $6 billion x 1.2 = $7.2 billion. (Of course this is just a rough calculation for the sake of argument, and I haven?t factored in what percentage of Apple?s sales are made up of Macs.)
And since when does it require sales figures to slope downwards before a company listens to the needs of its customers? Let?s be reasonable: any company that would require its sales chart to head downwards before it heeds the calls of its customers will not be in business for long. The converse is true: any company that refuses to listen to its customers? needs, simply because its sales figures are climbing, is ?..
I argue that, in spite of soaring MacBook sales, it could be better if Apple offered matte screens.
This argument below is an excerpt taken from http://macmatte.wordpress.com where the raw poll data is found.
etc. etc.
Well said. Extra points for correct apostrophe usage!
I've been waiting & had planned to upgrade soon until I saw Apple's new MBP offerings. I'm so disappointed that i"m going to a "hackintosh" when my current 15" MBP dies. I guess you could say that my 12 yr. love affair with Apple has finally ended..
My advice. Don't fall in love with tech companies ... or their products.
Plus... how many times do you have to tell this forum that you aren't going to buy another Apple laptop?
As has been stated time and again, almost no one actually ever changes a laptop battery. ...
Are you sure of that?
I'm on my third battery for my 2006 MBP. They don't seem to last worth a shit IME.
Having said that the new battery technology looks pretty intriguing. If they do live up to Apple's claims of 1000 cycles of charging then that would truly represent a big improvement in battery tech. I'm a little skeptical just based on my experience with the batteries for my current MBP but I'm trying to keep an open mind.
If they do live up to Apple's claims of 1000 cycles of charging then that would truly represent a big improvement in battery tech. I'm a little skeptical just based on my experience with the batteries for my current MBP but I'm trying to keep an open mind.
The main reason for the increase in load cycles is that the internal battery is lithium-polymer. Your current MBP battery is lithium ion, hence the more limited lifetime.
i'm so surprised to hear that any of the MBP line is selling well. I never would have thought that anyone would want an internal battery, which guarantee's a service need at some point, & the totally unacceptable Glossy screen. I've been waiting & had planned to upgrade soon until I saw Apple's new MBP offerings. I'm so disappointed that i"m going to a "hackintosh" when my current 15" MBP dies. I guess you could say that my 12 yr. love affair with Apple has finally ended..
I helped my girlfriend by a 13" MBP on the first day they came out (WWDC). It is a GREAT computer - ESPECIALLY the battery. Even in real-world conditions, it routinely gets 4, 5, or 6 hours of use! She's a summer camp counselor, so she brings it charged up at the beginning of the day and lasts the whole camp day of being used on and off...
To me, the battery is just brilliant. Having to use a screwdriver to replace it every 1,000 charges seems inconsequential - though I've yet to try. The only scenario where having a swappable battery is much better would probably be on the road, where you could use a backup battery to quickly get 3.5 hours...But in everyday situations, this battery is REALLY convenient.
BTW the MBP is light, strong, runs cool, is very quiet, has a wonderful screen. Quite a step up from the eMachine she was previously using.
Are you sure of that?
I'm on my third battery for my 2006 MBP. They don't seem to last worth a shit IME.
Having said that the new battery technology looks pretty intriguing. If they do live up to Apple's claims of 1000 cycles of charging then that would truly represent a big improvement in battery tech. I'm a little skeptical just based on my experience with the batteries for my current MBP but I'm trying to keep an open mind.
By "changes laptop batteries", I think Booga's saying that people very rarely swap their batteries in everyday situaitons to get more life - say, on a train.
People DO have to replace their batteries when their old one dies though. Usually this takes about a year and a half.