I wonder how effective the Back-to-School free iPod Touch is at increasing the iPhone OS user base. It'd be very interesting to see what the specific numbers are, but it's doubtful Apple will ever release such details. I'm guessing overall Mac profit margins can cover giving away a free iPod Touch and it'd probably be worthwhile to Apple as a whole at the end of the day, but free iPod Touch will negatively affect the iPod division's revenue.
Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.
Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.
And as long as Apple makes devices that serve more then one purpose, then some other item will suffer some.
- iPhone WILL hurt iPod sales ? some
- Laptops WILL hurt desktop unit sales some ? how much?
- LACK of new and exciting desktop unit(s) WILL hurt sales ? some
- iPod Touch WILL hurt iPhone sales some ? how much?
- iTab WILL hurt sales of Laptops & desktops ? how much? This might be why Apple is waiting to release it. Get as many other items sold before you come out with something, that can and will replace other items.
Hell I don't doubt for a minute, that cell phones with ok / nice cameras built in, HAVE had an effect on digital camera sales ? How much is anyones guess. And as they increase the pixels / quality of the cameras in these units, it will dig into the sales even more.
For right now, I'd love to see a new and exciting line up of desk top units and LARGE monitors, as we are ready to replace what we currently have.
Skip
The biggest factor hurting iPhone sales is ATT. Even with ATT the iPhone has hurt other smart phone manufacturers (Rim, etc.). The iPhone will hurt iPod sales, why carry 2 pieces of equipment when you can carry one. The iPhone's impact on camera's will be more felt when Apple adds a flash to it. I think the iPhone will impact hand held gaming, GPS sales, the list goes on and on.
i'm not talking about bad sales during the recession. look at the graph. Mac desktop haven't taken off in last 8 years. you cannot blame the recession for everything.
Not to rock too many boats, but I've got an honest-to-goodness rumor for all of you:
The ITG head in my department (at a major university) informed me that he had spoken to our senior Apple sales rep (who's been our rep for >20 years, apparently -- take that as you want), who had a vague piece of news:
"if we were doing something, which I'm not saying we are, it will come out in time for the holidays -- so I'd hold off on any major purchases"
This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...
That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.
Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.
Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.
Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.
That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.
Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.
the only time i turn on my desktop is to sync my wife's iphone because her work laptop has iTunes blocked. otherwise we are always on our laptops.
when my home build PC finally dies in a few years i'll probably just junk it. i wouldn't mind an MBP but it's like $3000 for the configuration i want compared to $1200 for a Dell Studio 15. And the dell will be faster at games and a few other things
Isn't this currently Apples fourth quarter as far as the books go? Which makes me wonder about the rumored tablet coming in the first quarter. Is it the first of the fisical or calendar quarters? Apple could be diliberately trying to confuse people here.
As for September is that month the beginning or end of a fisical quarter at Apple?
The problem as I see it is that some of the software coming (rumored) in September really needs a tablet to deliver full potential. Thus if the liner notes crap and other stuff comes that is part of the new album format, in September, then a tablet will be needed.
Note that yes this implies that I think the new tablet is an iPod derived device. At this point that should surprise no one.
Dave
Yes, this is the 4th fiscal quarter of the year for Apple.
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."
This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.
If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!
Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.
Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.
When we compare the number of iPod Touch sales to computer sales from Apple, I thunk it's safe to say that the number of Touches given away with computers as a part of the back to school promotion are a very small proportion of the Touches sales. The Touch sold about 130% higher than last year same quarter. with sales to schools down, according to Cook, free Touches will have been an even smaller percentage than last year.
I think we can discount those giveaways as having much impact on the total.
i'm not talking about bad sales during the recession. look at the graph. Mac desktop haven't taken off in last 8 years. you cannot blame the recession for everything.
But if you look at the lack of significant growth of all Apple computers this year, and the smaller sales of desktops in particular, you can see that the recession HAS been a significant factor.
Compare the sales at the beginning of 2008, to 2007, and you'll see significant sales growth in desktop and laptop sales, but as the recession gained a greater grip throughout the 2008 year, sales growth tapered off. then, around the end of 2009, and moving into 2009, when the recession was acknowledged as being so significant, growth in desktops faltered, and went negative, while sales in laptops also went negative one quarter, and then just moved up a few percent afterwards.
The trend of desktop sales over that long period was definitely upwards, until the recession hit. There is no question about that.
If there was no recession, there would be no reason to believe that growth of both desktops, AND laptops wouldn't have continued at the same rate as before, which was significant.
Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.
Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.
It isn't just space saving, though that's part of it.
Here in NYC, the main reason is cost savings. We have a program of buying laptops for schools that are stored on "carts". These carts are big enough to hold enough laptops for an entire class of 30+ students. With WiFi in most schools now, as well as Ethernet wiring in most classrooms, the cart can be brought to different classes. That negates having to have another computer lab (or more), and more computer teachers.
There can be one or two computer labs, and more than one "cart".
This enables the school to program computer usage much more efficiently.
With more than 1.1 million students in its K-12 schools, computer purchases, along with purchases for software, servers, and infrastructure is so high, that some means must be found to control those costs while ensuring that every student will get enough computer time.
At the same time, schools ARE purchasing more computers, and replacing old ones. But during these difficult times, when education budgets are being cut along with other city budgets, purchases are being cut as well. Laptops give every student a better chance of taking advantage of the latest technology.
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."
This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.
If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!
Just a thought,
en
What I don't understand, is why people keep forgetting about the recession. I keep having to remind people of this. The discussion here seems to be forgetting the huge impact it's having on everyone's sales.
People! When considering whether to buy a new iPod or not over the past year, many have decided to wait one more year. This is natural. It doesn't mean that iPod sales are beginning a long term slide.
We won't know if this is true until we're out of the recession, and that may not be for another year or more.
Its like cell phone sales. People who are having money problems, and were always at the bottom of the purchasing power list, and so purchased the cheapest cell phones, are ensuring that overall cell phones sales for the year are down 6%.
But people who aren't in that category have helped the most expensive phone sales, smartphones, to rise 27% over last year.
It's very likely the same thing is happening to iPod sales. Those buying the less expensive models are holding off because of financial difficulties, or concern about them, while people who have less of a concern are buying the most expensive models in much higher numbers.
So we see iPod sales overall down by 10%, but the most expensive category, the iPod Touch is up an astounding 130%. That's 2.5 times the sales of last year!
Is the dip/staticness of 2002/3/4 due to the G5 fiasco? Was 2005 the switch to Intel? Its been so long I forget
Everyne knew that Apple was moving to Intel almost a year before it happened, bwcause Jobs made that presentation. so in the very beginning, right after the announcement, sales were strong. As we got closer tothe arrival time, people began to hold off in their purchasing. right after Intel arrived, purchasing was moving back up, but still ar a slow pace. After the first quarter, when some machines were Intel, sales began topick upagain, and rapidly moved up.
It's a normal wait and see attitude.
After all, do you want to buy the last machine of a rapidly obsoleting technology? Most people don't know what's going on, so they buy anyway.
Others, such as schools, and business need to make purchases, so they do.
But the rest, perhaps 30% or so, think about holding off.
If you average out the sales before and afterwards, you will see that this holding off was what happened. A fairly steady increase in sales from the first numbers there until the recession began, can be seen.
This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...
There are plenty of reasons.
1) Costs of stock build up before launch are lower
2) Should version 1 problems hit fewer to repair/replace
3) Production ramp should be easier to control
4) Boost sales in a slower quarter
5) Launch hype vs reports of satisfied customers after 6 - 9 months use, which is the better stimulus for sales in the buying season?
Comments
I wonder how effective the Back-to-School free iPod Touch is at increasing the iPhone OS user base. It'd be very interesting to see what the specific numbers are, but it's doubtful Apple will ever release such details. I'm guessing overall Mac profit margins can cover giving away a free iPod Touch and it'd probably be worthwhile to Apple as a whole at the end of the day, but free iPod Touch will negatively affect the iPod division's revenue.
Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.
Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.
And as long as Apple makes devices that serve more then one purpose, then some other item will suffer some.
- iPhone WILL hurt iPod sales ? some
- Laptops WILL hurt desktop unit sales some ? how much?
- LACK of new and exciting desktop unit(s) WILL hurt sales ? some
- iPod Touch WILL hurt iPhone sales some ? how much?
- iTab WILL hurt sales of Laptops & desktops ? how much? This might be why Apple is waiting to release it. Get as many other items sold before you come out with something, that can and will replace other items.
Hell I don't doubt for a minute, that cell phones with ok / nice cameras built in, HAVE had an effect on digital camera sales ? How much is anyones guess. And as they increase the pixels / quality of the cameras in these units, it will dig into the sales even more.
For right now, I'd love to see a new and exciting line up of desk top units and LARGE monitors, as we are ready to replace what we currently have.
Skip
The biggest factor hurting iPhone sales is ATT. Even with ATT the iPhone has hurt other smart phone manufacturers (Rim, etc.). The iPhone will hurt iPod sales, why carry 2 pieces of equipment when you can carry one. The iPhone's impact on camera's will be more felt when Apple adds a flash to it. I think the iPhone will impact hand held gaming, GPS sales, the list goes on and on.
The ITG head in my department (at a major university) informed me that he had spoken to our senior Apple sales rep (who's been our rep for >20 years, apparently -- take that as you want), who had a vague piece of news:
"if we were doing something, which I'm not saying we are, it will come out in time for the holidays -- so I'd hold off on any major purchases"
This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...
That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.
Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.
Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.
Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.
That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.
Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.
the only time i turn on my desktop is to sync my wife's iphone because her work laptop has iTunes blocked. otherwise we are always on our laptops.
when my home build PC finally dies in a few years i'll probably just junk it. i wouldn't mind an MBP but it's like $3000 for the configuration i want compared to $1200 for a Dell Studio 15. And the dell will be faster at games and a few other things
Oops.... should have checked his posting history.... sorry, Doc.
Isn't this currently Apples fourth quarter as far as the books go? Which makes me wonder about the rumored tablet coming in the first quarter. Is it the first of the fisical or calendar quarters? Apple could be diliberately trying to confuse people here.
As for September is that month the beginning or end of a fisical quarter at Apple?
The problem as I see it is that some of the software coming (rumored) in September really needs a tablet to deliver full potential. Thus if the liner notes crap and other stuff comes that is part of the new album format, in September, then a tablet will be needed.
Note that yes this implies that I think the new tablet is an iPod derived device. At this point that should surprise no one.
Dave
Yes, this is the 4th fiscal quarter of the year for Apple.
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."
This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.
If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!
Just a thought,
en
Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.
Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.
When we compare the number of iPod Touch sales to computer sales from Apple, I thunk it's safe to say that the number of Touches given away with computers as a part of the back to school promotion are a very small proportion of the Touches sales. The Touch sold about 130% higher than last year same quarter. with sales to schools down, according to Cook, free Touches will have been an even smaller percentage than last year.
I think we can discount those giveaways as having much impact on the total.
i'm not talking about bad sales during the recession. look at the graph. Mac desktop haven't taken off in last 8 years. you cannot blame the recession for everything.
But if you look at the lack of significant growth of all Apple computers this year, and the smaller sales of desktops in particular, you can see that the recession HAS been a significant factor.
Compare the sales at the beginning of 2008, to 2007, and you'll see significant sales growth in desktop and laptop sales, but as the recession gained a greater grip throughout the 2008 year, sales growth tapered off. then, around the end of 2009, and moving into 2009, when the recession was acknowledged as being so significant, growth in desktops faltered, and went negative, while sales in laptops also went negative one quarter, and then just moved up a few percent afterwards.
The trend of desktop sales over that long period was definitely upwards, until the recession hit. There is no question about that.
If there was no recession, there would be no reason to believe that growth of both desktops, AND laptops wouldn't have continued at the same rate as before, which was significant.
laptop sales are canabalizing desktop sales. the desktop sales haven't gone up like laptop sales
Is the dip/staticness of 2002/3/4 due to the G5 fiasco? Was 2005 the switch to Intel? Its been so long I forget
Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.
Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.
It isn't just space saving, though that's part of it.
Here in NYC, the main reason is cost savings. We have a program of buying laptops for schools that are stored on "carts". These carts are big enough to hold enough laptops for an entire class of 30+ students. With WiFi in most schools now, as well as Ethernet wiring in most classrooms, the cart can be brought to different classes. That negates having to have another computer lab (or more), and more computer teachers.
There can be one or two computer labs, and more than one "cart".
This enables the school to program computer usage much more efficiently.
With more than 1.1 million students in its K-12 schools, computer purchases, along with purchases for software, servers, and infrastructure is so high, that some means must be found to control those costs while ensuring that every student will get enough computer time.
At the same time, schools ARE purchasing more computers, and replacing old ones. But during these difficult times, when education budgets are being cut along with other city budgets, purchases are being cut as well. Laptops give every student a better chance of taking advantage of the latest technology.
AI says,
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."
This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.
If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!
Just a thought,
en
What I don't understand, is why people keep forgetting about the recession. I keep having to remind people of this. The discussion here seems to be forgetting the huge impact it's having on everyone's sales.
People! When considering whether to buy a new iPod or not over the past year, many have decided to wait one more year. This is natural. It doesn't mean that iPod sales are beginning a long term slide.
We won't know if this is true until we're out of the recession, and that may not be for another year or more.
Its like cell phone sales. People who are having money problems, and were always at the bottom of the purchasing power list, and so purchased the cheapest cell phones, are ensuring that overall cell phones sales for the year are down 6%.
But people who aren't in that category have helped the most expensive phone sales, smartphones, to rise 27% over last year.
It's very likely the same thing is happening to iPod sales. Those buying the less expensive models are holding off because of financial difficulties, or concern about them, while people who have less of a concern are buying the most expensive models in much higher numbers.
So we see iPod sales overall down by 10%, but the most expensive category, the iPod Touch is up an astounding 130%. That's 2.5 times the sales of last year!
Is the dip/staticness of 2002/3/4 due to the G5 fiasco? Was 2005 the switch to Intel? Its been so long I forget
Everyne knew that Apple was moving to Intel almost a year before it happened, bwcause Jobs made that presentation. so in the very beginning, right after the announcement, sales were strong. As we got closer tothe arrival time, people began to hold off in their purchasing. right after Intel arrived, purchasing was moving back up, but still ar a slow pace. After the first quarter, when some machines were Intel, sales began topick upagain, and rapidly moved up.
It's a normal wait and see attitude.
After all, do you want to buy the last machine of a rapidly obsoleting technology? Most people don't know what's going on, so they buy anyway.
Others, such as schools, and business need to make purchases, so they do.
But the rest, perhaps 30% or so, think about holding off.
If you average out the sales before and afterwards, you will see that this holding off was what happened. A fairly steady increase in sales from the first numbers there until the recession began, can be seen.
This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...
There are plenty of reasons.
1) Costs of stock build up before launch are lower
2) Should version 1 problems hit fewer to repair/replace
3) Production ramp should be easier to control
4) Boost sales in a slower quarter
5) Launch hype vs reports of satisfied customers after 6 - 9 months use, which is the better stimulus for sales in the buying season?