Oct. estimates suggest Apple will sell 2.9M Macs this quarter

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
Sales figures for the month of October show that Apple is on track to meet Wall Street expectations for its first financial quarter, which includes the busy holiday season.



But given that nearly 50 percent of Mac sales in the three-month frame take place in the month of December, it is still too early to tell with certainty how Apple will perform, Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, told investors in a note released Wednesday afternoon. Retail sales data from NPD Group for the month of October suggests that Apple will sell between 2.8 million and 2.9 million Macs in the December quarter; Wall Street consensus is said to be about 2.85 million.



If those estimates hold true, that would put overall Mac sales up 14 percent year-over-year. NPD data for October was up 7 percent year-over-year.



"We expect new iMacs, which launched on 10/20, to help the desktop category rebound in the Dec. quarter," Munster wrote. "NPD data indicates that desktop Macs were up 45% y/y in the month of Oct. In other words, the headwind that existed into the Sept. quarter due to aging Mac desktops has now turned into a tailwind for Mac units in the Dec. quarter."



Munster said that although the October numbers were only up 7 percent year-over-year, that month also included the toughest segment of the quarter, as it was in October 2008 that Apple released its new aluminum MacBook Pros. He believes the addition of new desktop Macs late in October this year will be a key driver in boosting sales as the calendar year closes out.



iPod sales in October were said to be down 11 percent year-over-year. But again, Munster noted that more than half of iPods sold in the December quarter occur during the month of December.



"In other words," he wrote, "we believe the actual numbers for iPod will be slightly better than NPD would suggest."



That means Munster believes that iPod sales for the quarter will top the 19 million to 20 million implied by the current NPD numbers.



In October, Apple reported its best quarter ever, based on sales of 3 million Macs and 7.4 million iPhones. The company's profits rose more than 46 percent in the three-month period that concluded on Sept. 26.



Mac desktop sales fell 16 percent year-over-year in the September quarter, but Munster and others expect that those sales will spike given the release of new iMacs, a unibody polycarbonate MacBook, and faster Mac minis.



Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, as well as a $277 price target.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 36
    An' ah hailped! (for the younger among ya, that's an old shake 'n' bake commercial) (it was annoying back then, too.)
  • Reply 2 of 36
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apple’s best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking they’ll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.
  • Reply 3 of 36
    i smell another record quarter for Mac sales.
  • Reply 4 of 36
    OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.



    As a shareholder, I dread that day.
  • Reply 5 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.



    As a shareholder, I dread that day.



    I have a tissue if you need one.
  • Reply 6 of 36
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.



    As a shareholder, I dread that day.



    I don?t think we?ve reached that point yet. Machines with Win7 will be on the rise, MS will undoubtedly announce record OS sales for the quarter and Mac unit sales will likely see a drop in growth but I?d wager they will still make record sales and grow faster than the industry as a whole.



    The drop in MacBook pricing only occurred earlier this year and the use of desktop-class CPUs in the iMac does make them more appealing on a cost-per-performance level. Going down a step in minimum price opens up a lot more new potential customers than going up a step. I don? think the lack of new pro machines this holiday quarter will make a huge impact.
  • Reply 7 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I have a tissue if you need one.



    I am not surprised that you keep them with you! Must need it all the time, hanging around in this forum.....



    Thanks for the offer.
  • Reply 8 of 36
    Great for my porfoliio!!!
  • Reply 9 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I am not surprised that you keep them with you! Must need it all the time, hanging around in this forum.....



    Thanks for the offer.



    LOL. You make it sound like I hate Apple. I am on my Macbook Pro now. Would you like me to send you a Christmas picture of me using it. You are on my Christmas list you know.
  • Reply 10 of 36
    I'm not at all surprised by this.
  • Reply 11 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I have a tissue if you need one.



    I'll just use my shirt sleeve, thank you very much.
  • Reply 12 of 36
    My prediction: Apple will sell 4 million Macs and 25 million iPods in the Xmas quarter...
  • Reply 13 of 36
    Yeah I helped too! Just BTO an iMac i7. Delivery: Dec 4.



    Only buy a new computer once every 6 years, not rich. Going a little crazy now. Discovered AirTunes and have maxed out my iBookG4 60GB HD.



    Gonna be a llllloooong 2+ weeks.
  • Reply 14 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.



    As a shareholder, I dread that day.



    I'm holding my aapl. It doesn't seem like that long ago that they had the first 2m Mac quarter. Here we are in the 3m neighborhood already. With such a low market share there's plenty of room to run.



    Think about how many quarters analysts predicted a decline in iPod sales growth. It finally got here - nudged along by the iPhone, but it took MANY more quarters than anyone on Wall Street anticipated.



    The halo effect from the iPod didn't happen as quickly as I thought it would, but Macs are taking hold as a safe and sensible home computer alternative.



    These sales numbers will keep climbing for years. YEARS.
  • Reply 15 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by walshbj View Post


    I'm holding my aapl. It doesn't seem like that long ago that they had the first 2m Mac quarter. Here we are in the 3m neighborhood already. With such a low market share there's plenty of room to run.



    Think about how many quarters analysts predicted a decline in iPod sales growth. It finally got here - nudged along by the iPhone, but it took MANY more quarters than anyone on Wall Street anticipated.



    The halo effect from the iPod didn't happen as quickly as I thought it would, but Macs are taking hold as a safe and sensible home computer alternative.



    These sales numbers will keep climbing for years. YEARS.



    Oh, I am holding for the very long haul. There's no better tech stock that I can think of with which I would want to do that at the moment. I totally agree that there's a lot of room to run, numbers will keep climbing, and all that good stuff.



    It is just that I think expectations are running apace, perhaps even ahead of all the good stuff.....
  • Reply 16 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apple?s best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking they?ll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.



    Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$. Of course your hinie is smarter then my beer soaked brain so you are probably correct. I do wonder though if they can hit that number because it seems like they are having a slow ramp up for the quad core imac. Imho.

    Another thing I wonder is how much capacity do their contract manufacturers have? If sales exceed Apple's forecast can their manufacturers make up the difference?



    Jim
  • Reply 17 of 36
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I am not surprised that you keep them with you! Must need it all the time, hanging around in this forum.....



    Thanks for the offer.



    Well, all the freely floating humour around here, bundled with hilarious failed attempts, does often bring tears in one's eyes
  • Reply 18 of 36
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post


    Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$.



    I assure you I did calculations to arrive at that figure but there is a certain level of guess work involved (refuse to use the combination word of guess and estimation) and that it comes from same place as these other analysts. So yes, it’s pulled from my arse.



    edit: Some of the figures I used to arrive at my number.



    Mac sales in millions...
    Q4-2008 — 2.61 (White MB starts at $1,099, Al MB doesn’t exist yet; 21% increase YoY from Q4-2007)) *

    Q1-2009 — 2.52 (White MB starts at $999 ($100 drop), Al MB starts at $1,299; 09% increase YoY from Q1-2008) **

    Q4-2009 — 3.05 (White MB starts at $999 with new case, Al MBP starts at $1,199 ($100 drop); 17% increase YoY from Q4-2008)
    With new MB and iMacs that just came out, new lower priced MBPs over last year, SL on Macs, a recession that is over is some regards and, actually, Windows7 helping spur the PC market in general the way the iPhone helped smartphone sales in general will all help Apple do a 25% increase in YoY unit sales, hence selling 3.12M units.
  • Reply 19 of 36
    elrothelroth Posts: 1,201member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apple?s best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking they?ll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post


    Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$.



    He used the process of elimination.
  • Reply 20 of 36
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by elroth View Post


    He used the process of elimination.



    Commode over here and say that.
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