Do we need the same amount of dedicated hardware to write a tweet as we need to write a novel?
This is a stylophone not a steinway.
I know for a fact that I type faster on my iPhone than I ever could if I had to physically depress a microscopic key. If I could could use both hands (instead of both thumbs) I reckon the text entry on a tablet could be beyond acceptable.
I simply would not want to write a screenplay on it.
I am going to suggest that we are not going to see an eventual unification of tablet and notebook. Not in control methods or interface. Apple have figured out that devices for media consumption should head in one direction and productivity devices should head in another.
C.
Quote:
The secret sauce is Apple itself. Apple engineers and designers make products that are seamlessly intergrated and just work. Simple, but genius.
And that's it, folks. It's not an iPhone, it's not a Mac desktop. It's like a 'sunflower', true to itself. Imagine, accordingly. You'll be using your fingers, maybe..., in a more articulate way than on an iPhone...but not by much. A GUI that will use fingers...it'll be simple-ish (ie we may have to learn a few new gesture tricks...) and it will do more than an iPhone but primarily bigger...it won't be a 'Mac' but via the apps on a bigger screen, the resulting apps will approach the simplistic 'power' of desktop apps but without the ensuing baggage.
Sure, I giant iPod touch sounds simplistic. And for me, that's what it will feel like. Or all I can kinda imagine for now. But I don't think for a second that's 'all' it's going to be. There'll be more gestures, maybe a 3d interface...like a 3d Apple TV interface rotating media 3d icon goodliness. It'll have the app store out the gate. It'll control your Apple TV, your Mac remotely...if Apple don't do this, a 3rd party will.
Yer on ya sofa doing media. A book, a video, a internet, a facebook, a game...blah, blah. Computing without the effort. It's an offensive on what we primarily do with computers in the mainstream in the home. Bend over and receive content...chill out...relax...don't think too much...drool out mouth...etc.
There's no point creating a new device for professionals who want to create content. Do spreadsheets, run word processors. There is already a market-full of devices for such users.
So, is there a market for such an unproductively device?
You betcha.
Which sells more - blank notebooks or books?
Which sells more - TVs or Video Cameras?
Which sells more - Music or Musical Instruments?
In all cases, media consumption dwarfs creation.
Yeah that's all true but there are still a number of reasons to have legacy app support even for consuming. You may want to be able to use it as your main device for sorting your itunes collection while on the sofa and have it be the main machine that your mobile syncs to. You may have media formats that only have x86 plugins like DivX/XVid/MKV even Flash. Some people have media browsers that don't have iphone app equivalents, there's no keynote app for presentations, no iphoto for basic red-eye corrections and album sorting - imagine just sitting back on the sofa flipping through holiday photos and sorting it all out. Pro photographers would probably love to have one for storing photos on location and using Aperture or Lightroom and it could even have geo-tagging.
I think to myself that's what I want except have a tweaked UI that is better for touch. Multi-tasking, terminal access, productivity apps all there for casual use when needed even though the primary function will be as a consumption device. Basically the same thing a netbook is. That's why people get them - they are cheap but still let them do everything they need. As soon as someone asks how do I crop clips from my digital camera and upload to youtube and the answer comes back you can't do that, they wonder why they didn't just get a netbook, which can do it and is probably a lot cheaper.
When I think of all the things I use the iphone for and imagine that OS on a bigger device, the bigger screen isn't enough to sell it. They'd be as well just making a screen dock for the ipod/iphone and upscaling the content. If it runs the same apps, it doesn't need to be faster. I don't even care about multi-tasking on the iphone because the apps aren't full-featured enough that I'd bother about losing what I do with them. The only reason to make it faster is to run more demanding apps but I don't see the iSlate market being as big as the iphone market so will developers really start making more fully featured apps just for the slate? More work for a lower audience.
Like I say, I can see it going either way. All I can say for definite is that if it doesn't run OS X apps, I'm not part of the target audience for the device because that's all I really want to do. I don't want to have to sit at a desk to use forums and listen to music, I want to lounge back somewhere comfortable. However, I don't want to have to put the device down to do basic productivity on the desktop or sync/organize new content when the slate would be powerful enough to do it by itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage
I hope I am right - and do not have to go naked. It's snowing here.
At least your unmentionables will go sub-pixel so no photoshopping needed . Handy if you only had an unproductive slate and couldn't do basic image editing .
I hereby promise to you and Ireland. If this device runs un-modified Mac OS X desktop applications I will walk naked outside my house and post the photographs here for all to see.
I'm not exactly sure what that means, but I definitely never said: "this tablet will run unmodified Mac OS X desktop applications". You see, you're definition of the Mac is far too narrow. This tablet won't look like Mac OS X, the regular one, but I think they'll try to make a tablet that does all the stuff a Mac does, and I think Apple will put Mac in the name. At least I hope they are ambitious enough to make a tablet as amazing as the one I imagine. If they don't I'll be disappointed in Steve and surprised, frankly.
The reason why Apple is going towards a closed UI and closed App store is to protect it's market share.
It's become so easy to run Windows, Linux and OS X at the same time using VM software. It's blurred the lines and even diehard Mac users like myself are using other operating systems regularly.
So Apple is going to gradually shift into a really closed universe with a easier UI.
As more and more people buy the new iTablet to solve their needs, the less and less a real computer just falls to the slimmer professional market.
Eventually Pro Mac users will be shifting to Windows. Thus the name "Bootcamp".
Thus the reason why the line of MacBooks nearly disappeared except for one white model.
Apple intends to introduce the new and young to a totally new type of computer.
The competition is going to get fscked because they won't have the OS or the AppStore to compete, despite having the hardware.
God I am sick and tired of reading this repetitive crap from you!
Basically what you are saying is that, if an Apple tablet ( cheaper than a Macbook with a simpler, yet functional UI) is successful.. then a certain type of Mac user will have no more need for the full blown Mac OS X?
Is that it.. do I understand you correctly? Then surprisingly... I agree with you! However you are missing the bloody obvious.
Like the iPod and iPhone before it, it's likely that most "iSlate" owners will actually be Windows users. If these people discover that they can do pretty much everything they need on their new device then it's MIcrosoft, Dell, HP etc that will be losing out.
Bloody obvious thing #2. If Apple's tablet is a hit what do you think their competitors are going to do? Continue to produce computing devices of every conceivable shape and size (see CES!) and squeeze Windows 7 onto them? No! Like the smart phone market, Apple's competitors are going to follow their lead. We already have Android on a couple of tablet computers. What's the Chrome OS going to be used on? What other big players might take a punt with an optimised, customised version of Linux. Hell, even Microsoft might get their act together and build a good mobile OS.
Bloody obvious thing #2. Who the hell are these people that are going to buy this new class of products and forsake all the benefits of a hardware keyboard , bigger screen and a "real" operating system? Well quite simply it will be people who realise that they just don't need the 'extra' features of a notebook and rarely buy or use expensive, powerful applications.
Whoever these people are, most of them are currently Windows users. And furthermore it's highly likely that they spend less than $1000 a pop on their machine of choice. That's a market that Apple has chosen not to play in.
This tablet won't look like Mac OS X, the regular one, but I think they'll try to make a tablet that does all the stuff a Mac does, and I think Apple will put Mac in the name.
All the stuff that a Mac does!
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
If Apple did this, not only would they be making such applications harder to use, but they would (presumably) be cannibalising sales of full powered notebooks. Some companies may think like this, but Apple has said that they think their notebooks are about as good as they can be. Removing keyboards and halving the screen area is simply not progress towards a better experience.
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
If Apple did this, not only would they be making such applications harder to use, but they would (presumably) be cannibalising sales of full powered notebooks. Some companies may think like this, but Apple has said that they think their notebooks are about as good as they can be. Removing keyboards and halving the screen area is simply not progress towards a better experience.
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
Is anyone confident-enough to match my wager?
C.
I think that the product that you describe would be a failure at the price points that are rumored. There are other devices that do these things both on the go and at home so what is the compelling reason to have one if I have the other devices? What would make it worth while to make the initial investment and potentially add in a monthly data plan on top of my iPhone? And why am I going to want to cary around another device throughout the day when I have my laptop and phone?
Part of the success of the smart phone is that you don't have to cary around a PDA and a cell phone. I think that part of the success of a tablet is going to be that you don't have to cary around a laptop and a cell phone to get most things done while you are away from the office. This points toward the need for light productivity similar to what people use note pads for in both their personal and professional lives.
Part of the success of the smart phone is that you don't have to cary around a PDA and a cell phone. I think that part of the success of a tablet is going to be that you don't have to cary around a laptop and a cell phone to get most things done ....
Come again? So will be make phone calls on our new iSlates?
Come again? So will be make phone calls on our new iSlates?
If you have a wireless plan and a blue tooth headset why not? Not saying that it is in the plans, I have no idea what they are working on. I just think that a device that is just a large screen iPhone without the phone function will limit it's appeal at the price point that is speculated for the device. And in these uncertain economic times if you need a wireless data plan for the tablet/slate to take full advantage of it on top of your phone's voice/data plan then it will limit it's appeal even more since that would add in an additional $40+/month to your bills.
I guess they could offer some form of "tethering" to your phone for data, but I don't think that the wireless carriers would like that since this would probably add more of a strain to the wireless networks than the iPhone has to AT&T's.
Also if you have to cary around your phone and laptop as well as the tablet/slate then it is going to be inconvenient for most people in practice. If you can eliminate the need to carry around a phone or a laptop then it makes more sense, and even more if you eliminate the need to cary both around on a regular basis.
If you have a wireless plan and a blue tooth headset why not? ...
If you don't know, then there is probably little that I can do to educate you.
That said, there has been a lot of talk here and elsewhere about Apple will and will not do. Apple in an innovative company. Some of its products are spectacular successes; others are so-so; and still others have been spectacular flops. However, I cannot recall Apple ever introducing a joke product. Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
There are other devices that do these things both on the go and at home so what is the compelling reason to have one if I have the other devices?
I am not 100% certain what those devices are. Archos PMPs? Netbooks? Kindles?
I am guessing that Apple is sensing that this is a mass-market consumer device.
My suspicion is that once this feature-set is bundled into a single product, the question will suddenly be "Why would we want any of these other devices?"
I do think that the people expecting this thing to run Mac OS/X and all those legacy apps are irrational. Apple would have to be completely off it's rocker to follow a pathe that so many others have failed at. Plus they have a perfectly good Framework on iPhone to build something better on.
Related is this idea that Apple will target productivity apps for the device. I'm certain that won't be the initial target for the device. Instead apple will target the people whom will use the device to consum services and products. People may try to sell apps for productivity but I'm going to suggest that it will be a hard sell. Tablets just aren't practicle for compositions of any length.
In a nut shell the ergonomics suck. Even with 3D Touch and other tricks you won't be using a tablet for long stretches.
Oh that brings up one other thing. I'm beginning to think that part of this wonderful new interface will be 3D Touch. That is the screen will also track your fingers in "Z". This will work as in a mirror with the 3D projection on the screen.
In the end there will be productivity apps that are successful on the tablet. They will not be direct ports however. They will need to leverage the new user interface and rethink what the app should be. Some apps like spread sheets will integrate well and quickly, others like word processors will suck for a very long time. These will be app store products but Apple will focus marketing on the consumming user.
If you don't know, then there is probably little that I can do to educate you.
That said, there has been a lot of talk here and elsewhere about Apple will and will not do. Apple in an innovative company. Some of its products are spectacular successes; others are so-so; and still others have been spectacular flops. However, I cannot recall Apple ever introducing a joke product. Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
You make me sound like an idiot. If you are carrying around the device and it has a wireless voice plan and a remote headset then it is no different than using an iPhone with that same blue tooth headset. That does not mean that it would have to be just giant cell phone, the iPhone is not just a cell phone is it?
You are what you are. Apple has dropped its own Bluetooth headset. Bluetooth headsets are now available only from third-parties. For the first time in Apple's history, one of its computing platforms would require an extra third-party device to perform a primary function.
Are you sure that you have fully thought-out your position here?
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
No one is going to buy a 10" tablet for PS though, that's the point you're missing. It won't be mega powerful. Besides, what you're also forgetting is that PS would also need to be rewritten to run on the tablet, and added to the Tablet's App Store, which won't be out for a while. The point I'm making is Apple will pitch this as a Mac, and eventually there will be applications on it that do almost anything your PC tries to do, unlike the iPhone, which is too small for some of that stuff. The reason why they'll continue to sell more powerful machines is that reason.
The point I'm making is they won't be cannibalizing the iPod touch / iPhone market, they'll be cannibalizing the MacBook market. However, since this tablet won't be cheap they'll probably make a larger profit margin so they won't care.
No one is going to buy a 10" tablet for PS though, that's the point you're missing. It won't be mega powerful. Besides, what you're also forgetting is that PS would also need to be rewritten to run on the tablet, and added to the Tablet's App Store, which won't be out for a while.
I doubt the full on version of Photoshop will ever be on a tablet. Maybe a light version though for tweaking photos. I think the tablet will be more like Chumby.
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
They've added gesture support to a lot of their OS X software. It would be a waste for them to be limited to trackpad use. This includes Motion and Aperture. Note that most OS X apps use standard interface calls - all they have to do is interpret them differently so interface elements that seem hard to touch don't have to be that size nor do they have to behave the same way. This is what they do with Safari on the iphone with HTML select boxes - they turn them into a rolodex.
If indeed they have pixel-level touch support like in the patent, it's not that important to even modify the UI significantly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
What you're describing though isn't something else entirely - it's basically a big ipod/iphone. I do all those things using my iphone right now. It's not great for those things but it's not bad enough that I'd want to spend $499 or more buying something else. The point about the data contract is important - I already have a data contract and I don't want to buy another for a limited device or at all really.
You mentioned that you don't go along with the rumors so I would assume you expect it will be cheaper and in effect a big ipod touch in hardware spec but something extra that makes it more than an ipod touch. The 64GB ipod touch is $399 so add on a 10" capacitive screen and it's $499 or $599 with some new hardware in it.
I could see that device existing, I just don't see why people would buy one. Now given the netbook market, if it was an Atom device with OS X (x86) in some form, USB, displayport and did everything a netbook could do but did it with a great touch UI, it offers some serious competition to Dell's Mini 10 which only costs $349 with the following spec:
1.33GHz Atom (1.6GHz for $50 more)
1GB RAM
10.1" screen
160GB HDD
802.11g wifi
Intel graphics
integrated webcam
mobile broadband option
GPS option
If Apple come out with a big ipod for books that Jobs says people don't read any more, that only runs apps that are all optimized for a screen at most 1/4 the size, that requires a second data contract to be as functional and yet still charges nearly double the price of a faster and more capable netbook, I think it will sell very badly.
For the same reasons the ATV sells badly. It's exactly the kind of device you describe. Apple could sell it with the full OS X and allow it run as a server or play all sorts of media (people have hacked it to do both) but they don't. It's a cut down device that's way more expensive than more functional competitors and despite the nice UI, nobody wants it including me. If Apple don't want the slate to be another ATV, they have to make a touch Mac slate not a big ipod OR it has to be much cheaper like $299 and take on the ebook readers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Me
Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
Perhaps but say you have a laptop and an iphone and the slate doesn't do anything more than the iphone. Why would you buy the slate? If you go out to work and don't want to carry around your laptop but the slate gives you no more functionality in any significant way than your iphone, there's no point in having one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69
Oh that brings up one other thing. I'm beginning to think that part of this wonderful new interface will be 3D Touch. That is the screen will also track your fingers in "Z". This will work as in a mirror with the 3D projection on the screen.
The rumors did mention that people would be surprised about the interaction with the device. I think that would be a great addition because you could do the same type of drawing you can do with a Wacom - assuming you can run some drawing app. Autodesk have made an iphone app called SketchBook that gives you an idea how it could work.
With 3D touch, you don't need to bother about interface sizes either as your finger could move a cursor around.
What you're describing though isn't something else entirely - it's basically a big ipod/iphone. I do all those things using my iphone right now. It's not great for those things but it's not bad enough that I'd want to spend $499 or more buying something else.
The question is simply whether people will spend $599 on the world's first personal computer?
By personal computer, I mean one that does not have its origins in office equipment. But rather one that is entirely optimised around the set of tasks which have become "what regular people do on computers". Not optimised for the highly specialized tasks of content-creators and professionals.
This is a device optimised for social networking, entertainment and media consumption. Professionals have very different needs. And Apple already have a full line-up of products dedicated to meeting those needs already.
It is not a co-incidence that social-networking, entertainment and media consumption are already possible on your iPhone. But the iPhone is a sub-optimal experience simply because the pocket-sized form factor demands a screen the size of a business card.
Neither the iPod or the iPhone did things which were new. They simply presented functionality in a way in which everyone understood.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin
If Apple come out with a big ipod for books that Jobs says people don't read any more, that only runs apps that are all optimized for a screen at most 1/4 the size, that requires a second data contract to be as functional and yet still charges nearly double the price of a faster and more capable netbook, I think it will sell very badly.
My guess the tablet will only run a subset of 4.0 apps. Whether developers will create new full-screen apps, is up to them. I bet many iPhone developers may tweak their apps to ensure they are in there from the beginning. But entirely new types of application will suit the new form-factor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin
For the same reasons the ATV sells badly. It's exactly the kind of device you describe.
As far as I can tell the ATV has only one app - and having tested it, I can assure you that it works badly in the coffee shop environment.
I guess we will have to wait and see who is right.
That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought out view on the Apple Slate market. And it's 100% dead on.
There is a HUGE market for people who want the benefits of a mobile computer without any of the headaches. The iPhone/iPod touch fills that void to an extent, but more is needed.
More is definitely needed, and the Slate is about to deliver.
Comments
Is Facebook productivity?
Do we need the same amount of dedicated hardware to write a tweet as we need to write a novel?
This is a stylophone not a steinway.
I know for a fact that I type faster on my iPhone than I ever could if I had to physically depress a microscopic key. If I could could use both hands (instead of both thumbs) I reckon the text entry on a tablet could be beyond acceptable.
I simply would not want to write a screenplay on it.
I am going to suggest that we are not going to see an eventual unification of tablet and notebook. Not in control methods or interface. Apple have figured out that devices for media consumption should head in one direction and productivity devices should head in another.
C.
The secret sauce is Apple itself. Apple engineers and designers make products that are seamlessly intergrated and just work. Simple, but genius.
And that's it, folks. It's not an iPhone, it's not a Mac desktop. It's like a 'sunflower', true to itself. Imagine, accordingly. You'll be using your fingers, maybe..., in a more articulate way than on an iPhone...but not by much. A GUI that will use fingers...it'll be simple-ish (ie we may have to learn a few new gesture tricks...) and it will do more than an iPhone but primarily bigger...it won't be a 'Mac' but via the apps on a bigger screen, the resulting apps will approach the simplistic 'power' of desktop apps but without the ensuing baggage.
Sure, I giant iPod touch sounds simplistic. And for me, that's what it will feel like. Or all I can kinda imagine for now. But I don't think for a second that's 'all' it's going to be. There'll be more gestures, maybe a 3d interface...like a 3d Apple TV interface rotating media 3d icon goodliness. It'll have the app store out the gate. It'll control your Apple TV, your Mac remotely...if Apple don't do this, a 3rd party will.
Yer on ya sofa doing media. A book, a video, a internet, a facebook, a game...blah, blah. Computing without the effort. It's an offensive on what we primarily do with computers in the mainstream in the home. Bend over and receive content...chill out...relax...don't think too much...drool out mouth...etc.
Lemon Bon Bon.
All this guessing is driving me crazy.
Lemon Bon BOn.
There's no point creating a new device for professionals who want to create content. Do spreadsheets, run word processors. There is already a market-full of devices for such users.
So, is there a market for such an unproductively device?
You betcha.
Which sells more - blank notebooks or books?
Which sells more - TVs or Video Cameras?
Which sells more - Music or Musical Instruments?
In all cases, media consumption dwarfs creation.
Yeah that's all true but there are still a number of reasons to have legacy app support even for consuming. You may want to be able to use it as your main device for sorting your itunes collection while on the sofa and have it be the main machine that your mobile syncs to. You may have media formats that only have x86 plugins like DivX/XVid/MKV even Flash. Some people have media browsers that don't have iphone app equivalents, there's no keynote app for presentations, no iphoto for basic red-eye corrections and album sorting - imagine just sitting back on the sofa flipping through holiday photos and sorting it all out. Pro photographers would probably love to have one for storing photos on location and using Aperture or Lightroom and it could even have geo-tagging.
When I see the TrollTouch demos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRrWEZXaqH4
I think to myself that's what I want except have a tweaked UI that is better for touch. Multi-tasking, terminal access, productivity apps all there for casual use when needed even though the primary function will be as a consumption device. Basically the same thing a netbook is. That's why people get them - they are cheap but still let them do everything they need. As soon as someone asks how do I crop clips from my digital camera and upload to youtube and the answer comes back you can't do that, they wonder why they didn't just get a netbook, which can do it and is probably a lot cheaper.
When I think of all the things I use the iphone for and imagine that OS on a bigger device, the bigger screen isn't enough to sell it. They'd be as well just making a screen dock for the ipod/iphone and upscaling the content. If it runs the same apps, it doesn't need to be faster. I don't even care about multi-tasking on the iphone because the apps aren't full-featured enough that I'd bother about losing what I do with them. The only reason to make it faster is to run more demanding apps but I don't see the iSlate market being as big as the iphone market so will developers really start making more fully featured apps just for the slate? More work for a lower audience.
Like I say, I can see it going either way. All I can say for definite is that if it doesn't run OS X apps, I'm not part of the target audience for the device because that's all I really want to do. I don't want to have to sit at a desk to use forums and listen to music, I want to lounge back somewhere comfortable. However, I don't want to have to put the device down to do basic productivity on the desktop or sync/organize new content when the slate would be powerful enough to do it by itself.
I hope I am right - and do not have to go naked. It's snowing here.
At least your unmentionables will go sub-pixel so no photoshopping needed
I say cow-poop.
I hereby promise to you and Ireland. If this device runs un-modified Mac OS X desktop applications I will walk naked outside my house and post the photographs here for all to see.
I'm not exactly sure what that means, but I definitely never said: "this tablet will run unmodified Mac OS X desktop applications". You see, you're definition of the Mac is far too narrow. This tablet won't look like Mac OS X, the regular one, but I think they'll try to make a tablet that does all the stuff a Mac does, and I think Apple will put Mac in the name. At least I hope they are ambitious enough to make a tablet as amazing as the one I imagine. If they don't I'll be disappointed in Steve and surprised, frankly.
The reason why Apple is going towards a closed UI and closed App store is to protect it's market share.
It's become so easy to run Windows, Linux and OS X at the same time using VM software. It's blurred the lines and even diehard Mac users like myself are using other operating systems regularly.
So Apple is going to gradually shift into a really closed universe with a easier UI.
As more and more people buy the new iTablet to solve their needs, the less and less a real computer just falls to the slimmer professional market.
Eventually Pro Mac users will be shifting to Windows. Thus the name "Bootcamp".
Thus the reason why the line of MacBooks nearly disappeared except for one white model.
Apple intends to introduce the new and young to a totally new type of computer.
The competition is going to get fscked because they won't have the OS or the AppStore to compete, despite having the hardware.
God I am sick and tired of reading this repetitive crap from you!
Basically what you are saying is that, if an Apple tablet ( cheaper than a Macbook with a simpler, yet functional UI) is successful.. then a certain type of Mac user will have no more need for the full blown Mac OS X?
Is that it.. do I understand you correctly? Then surprisingly... I agree with you! However you are missing the bloody obvious.
Like the iPod and iPhone before it, it's likely that most "iSlate" owners will actually be Windows users. If these people discover that they can do pretty much everything they need on their new device then it's MIcrosoft, Dell, HP etc that will be losing out.
Bloody obvious thing #2. If Apple's tablet is a hit what do you think their competitors are going to do? Continue to produce computing devices of every conceivable shape and size (see CES!) and squeeze Windows 7 onto them? No! Like the smart phone market, Apple's competitors are going to follow their lead. We already have Android on a couple of tablet computers. What's the Chrome OS going to be used on? What other big players might take a punt with an optimised, customised version of Linux. Hell, even Microsoft might get their act together and build a good mobile OS.
Bloody obvious thing #2. Who the hell are these people that are going to buy this new class of products and forsake all the benefits of a hardware keyboard , bigger screen and a "real" operating system? Well quite simply it will be people who realise that they just don't need the 'extra' features of a notebook and rarely buy or use expensive, powerful applications.
Whoever these people are, most of them are currently Windows users. And furthermore it's highly likely that they spend less than $1000 a pop on their machine of choice. That's a market that Apple has chosen not to play in.
This tablet won't look like Mac OS X, the regular one, but I think they'll try to make a tablet that does all the stuff a Mac does, and I think Apple will put Mac in the name.
All the stuff that a Mac does!
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
If Apple did this, not only would they be making such applications harder to use, but they would (presumably) be cannibalising sales of full powered notebooks. Some companies may think like this, but Apple has said that they think their notebooks are about as good as they can be. Removing keyboards and halving the screen area is simply not progress towards a better experience.
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
Is anyone confident-enough to match my wager?
C.
All the stuff that a Mac does!
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
If Apple did this, not only would they be making such applications harder to use, but they would (presumably) be cannibalising sales of full powered notebooks. Some companies may think like this, but Apple has said that they think their notebooks are about as good as they can be. Removing keyboards and halving the screen area is simply not progress towards a better experience.
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
Is anyone confident-enough to match my wager?
C.
I think that the product that you describe would be a failure at the price points that are rumored. There are other devices that do these things both on the go and at home so what is the compelling reason to have one if I have the other devices? What would make it worth while to make the initial investment and potentially add in a monthly data plan on top of my iPhone? And why am I going to want to cary around another device throughout the day when I have my laptop and phone?
Part of the success of the smart phone is that you don't have to cary around a PDA and a cell phone. I think that part of the success of a tablet is going to be that you don't have to cary around a laptop and a cell phone to get most things done while you are away from the office. This points toward the need for light productivity similar to what people use note pads for in both their personal and professional lives.
...
Part of the success of the smart phone is that you don't have to cary around a PDA and a cell phone. I think that part of the success of a tablet is going to be that you don't have to cary around a laptop and a cell phone to get most things done ....
Come again? So will be make phone calls on our new iSlates?
Come again? So will be make phone calls on our new iSlates?
If you have a wireless plan and a blue tooth headset why not? Not saying that it is in the plans, I have no idea what they are working on. I just think that a device that is just a large screen iPhone without the phone function will limit it's appeal at the price point that is speculated for the device. And in these uncertain economic times if you need a wireless data plan for the tablet/slate to take full advantage of it on top of your phone's voice/data plan then it will limit it's appeal even more since that would add in an additional $40+/month to your bills.
I guess they could offer some form of "tethering" to your phone for data, but I don't think that the wireless carriers would like that since this would probably add more of a strain to the wireless networks than the iPhone has to AT&T's.
Also if you have to cary around your phone and laptop as well as the tablet/slate then it is going to be inconvenient for most people in practice. If you can eliminate the need to carry around a phone or a laptop then it makes more sense, and even more if you eliminate the need to cary both around on a regular basis.
If you have a wireless plan and a blue tooth headset why not? ...
If you don't know, then there is probably little that I can do to educate you.
That said, there has been a lot of talk here and elsewhere about Apple will and will not do. Apple in an innovative company. Some of its products are spectacular successes; others are so-so; and still others have been spectacular flops. However, I cannot recall Apple ever introducing a joke product. Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
I think that the product that you describe would be a failure at the price points that are rumored.
I don't really believe the rumors.
There are other devices that do these things both on the go and at home so what is the compelling reason to have one if I have the other devices?
I am not 100% certain what those devices are. Archos PMPs? Netbooks? Kindles?
I am guessing that Apple is sensing that this is a mass-market consumer device.
My suspicion is that once this feature-set is bundled into a single product, the question will suddenly be "Why would we want any of these other devices?"
C.
Related is this idea that Apple will target productivity apps for the device. I'm certain that won't be the initial target for the device. Instead apple will target the people whom will use the device to consum services and products. People may try to sell apps for productivity but I'm going to suggest that it will be a hard sell. Tablets just aren't practicle for compositions of any length.
In a nut shell the ergonomics suck. Even with 3D Touch and other tricks you won't be using a tablet for long stretches.
Oh that brings up one other thing. I'm beginning to think that part of this wonderful new interface will be 3D Touch. That is the screen will also track your fingers in "Z". This will work as in a mirror with the 3D projection on the screen.
In the end there will be productivity apps that are successful on the tablet. They will not be direct ports however. They will need to leverage the new user interface and rethink what the app should be. Some apps like spread sheets will integrate well and quickly, others like word processors will suck for a very long time. These will be app store products but Apple will focus marketing on the consumming user.
Dave
If you don't know, then there is probably little that I can do to educate you.
That said, there has been a lot of talk here and elsewhere about Apple will and will not do. Apple in an innovative company. Some of its products are spectacular successes; others are so-so; and still others have been spectacular flops. However, I cannot recall Apple ever introducing a joke product. Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
You make me sound like an idiot. If you are carrying around the device and it has a wireless voice plan and a remote headset then it is no different than using an iPhone with that same blue tooth headset. That does not mean that it would have to be just giant cell phone, the iPhone is not just a cell phone is it?
You make me sound like an idiot. ...
You are what you are. Apple has dropped its own Bluetooth headset. Bluetooth headsets are now available only from third-parties. For the first time in Apple's history, one of its computing platforms would require an extra third-party device to perform a primary function.
Are you sure that you have fully thought-out your position here?
All the stuff that a Mac does!
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
No one is going to buy a 10" tablet for PS though, that's the point you're missing. It won't be mega powerful. Besides, what you're also forgetting is that PS would also need to be rewritten to run on the tablet, and added to the Tablet's App Store, which won't be out for a while. The point I'm making is Apple will pitch this as a Mac, and eventually there will be applications on it that do almost anything your PC tries to do, unlike the iPhone, which is too small for some of that stuff. The reason why they'll continue to sell more powerful machines is that reason.
The point I'm making is they won't be cannibalizing the iPod touch / iPhone market, they'll be cannibalizing the MacBook market. However, since this tablet won't be cheap they'll probably make a larger profit margin so they won't care.
No one is going to buy a 10" tablet for PS though, that's the point you're missing. It won't be mega powerful. Besides, what you're also forgetting is that PS would also need to be rewritten to run on the tablet, and added to the Tablet's App Store, which won't be out for a while.
I doubt the full on version of Photoshop will ever be on a tablet. Maybe a light version though for tweaking photos. I think the tablet will be more like Chumby.
Presumably that means running professional productivity applications like Photoshop and Indesign, and Final Cut?
On a 10inch screen
Operated by fingers.
They've added gesture support to a lot of their OS X software. It would be a waste for them to be limited to trackpad use. This includes Motion and Aperture. Note that most OS X apps use standard interface calls - all they have to do is interpret them differently so interface elements that seem hard to touch don't have to be that size nor do they have to behave the same way. This is what they do with Safari on the iphone with HTML select boxes - they turn them into a rolodex.
If indeed they have pixel-level touch support like in the patent, it's not that important to even modify the UI significantly.
In my view the tablet will be something else entirely. A machine purpose-built to do the stuff regular people now do with computers; Browsing, reading, watching content, a bit of twitter-book social networking. Not productivity at all.
This is, I think, a full-on attempt to create a genuinely personal computer and not an portable office machine.
What you're describing though isn't something else entirely - it's basically a big ipod/iphone. I do all those things using my iphone right now. It's not great for those things but it's not bad enough that I'd want to spend $499 or more buying something else. The point about the data contract is important - I already have a data contract and I don't want to buy another for a limited device or at all really.
You mentioned that you don't go along with the rumors so I would assume you expect it will be cheaper and in effect a big ipod touch in hardware spec but something extra that makes it more than an ipod touch. The 64GB ipod touch is $399 so add on a 10" capacitive screen and it's $499 or $599 with some new hardware in it.
I could see that device existing, I just don't see why people would buy one. Now given the netbook market, if it was an Atom device with OS X (x86) in some form, USB, displayport and did everything a netbook could do but did it with a great touch UI, it offers some serious competition to Dell's Mini 10 which only costs $349 with the following spec:
1.33GHz Atom (1.6GHz for $50 more)
1GB RAM
10.1" screen
160GB HDD
802.11g wifi
Intel graphics
integrated webcam
mobile broadband option
GPS option
If Apple come out with a big ipod for books that Jobs says people don't read any more, that only runs apps that are all optimized for a screen at most 1/4 the size, that requires a second data contract to be as functional and yet still charges nearly double the price of a faster and more capable netbook, I think it will sell very badly.
For the same reasons the ATV sells badly. It's exactly the kind of device you describe. Apple could sell it with the full OS X and allow it run as a server or play all sorts of media (people have hacked it to do both) but they don't. It's a cut down device that's way more expensive than more functional competitors and despite the nice UI, nobody wants it including me. If Apple don't want the slate to be another ATV, they have to make a touch Mac slate not a big ipod OR it has to be much cheaper like $299 and take on the ebook readers.
Using its new tablet as a giant cell phone is a joke. That is not Apple.
Perhaps but say you have a laptop and an iphone and the slate doesn't do anything more than the iphone. Why would you buy the slate? If you go out to work and don't want to carry around your laptop but the slate gives you no more functionality in any significant way than your iphone, there's no point in having one.
Oh that brings up one other thing. I'm beginning to think that part of this wonderful new interface will be 3D Touch. That is the screen will also track your fingers in "Z". This will work as in a mirror with the 3D projection on the screen.
The rumors did mention that people would be surprised about the interaction with the device. I think that would be a great addition because you could do the same type of drawing you can do with a Wacom - assuming you can run some drawing app. Autodesk have made an iphone app called SketchBook that gives you an idea how it could work.
With 3D touch, you don't need to bother about interface sizes either as your finger could move a cursor around.
What you're describing though isn't something else entirely - it's basically a big ipod/iphone. I do all those things using my iphone right now. It's not great for those things but it's not bad enough that I'd want to spend $499 or more buying something else.
The question is simply whether people will spend $599 on the world's first personal computer?
By personal computer, I mean one that does not have its origins in office equipment. But rather one that is entirely optimised around the set of tasks which have become "what regular people do on computers". Not optimised for the highly specialized tasks of content-creators and professionals.
This is a device optimised for social networking, entertainment and media consumption. Professionals have very different needs. And Apple already have a full line-up of products dedicated to meeting those needs already.
It is not a co-incidence that social-networking, entertainment and media consumption are already possible on your iPhone. But the iPhone is a sub-optimal experience simply because the pocket-sized form factor demands a screen the size of a business card.
Neither the iPod or the iPhone did things which were new. They simply presented functionality in a way in which everyone understood.
If Apple come out with a big ipod for books that Jobs says people don't read any more, that only runs apps that are all optimized for a screen at most 1/4 the size, that requires a second data contract to be as functional and yet still charges nearly double the price of a faster and more capable netbook, I think it will sell very badly.
My guess the tablet will only run a subset of 4.0 apps. Whether developers will create new full-screen apps, is up to them. I bet many iPhone developers may tweak their apps to ensure they are in there from the beginning. But entirely new types of application will suit the new form-factor.
For the same reasons the ATV sells badly. It's exactly the kind of device you describe.
As far as I can tell the ATV has only one app - and having tested it, I can assure you that it works badly in the coffee shop environment.
I guess we will have to wait and see who is right.
C.
This is my take.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showpost.php?p=1543591&postcount=200
C.
That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought out view on the Apple Slate market. And it's 100% dead on.
There is a HUGE market for people who want the benefits of a mobile computer without any of the headaches. The iPhone/iPod touch fills that void to an extent, but more is needed.
More is definitely needed, and the Slate is about to deliver.