Right but who doesn't txt msg? I would assume most iPhone users add that extra fee for txt messaging.
My family doesn't have the texting plan. It's an extra cost you don't need. I mean you can send most people an email these days or you can use an application like textPlus, textNow, ect.
Someone is going to point out it's the carriers, not RiM, but they failing to note the initial price drop on RiM's end to make this possible with the same contract. RiM's longterm plan is going to hurt them. I really expected more from their Storms. They need to go with a capacitance touch screen and focus a little more on media and internet capabilities. Adobe isn't even making a version of Flash 10.1 for Blackberry, that'll upset some BB users.
You know i was going to call you on this one bro.
The Storm is using a capacitive touchscreen (i had the 9530 from launch till last Sept when i got my Bold), but it uses Surepress technology as well. If you like it or not is your decision. The UI is really the killer on the Storm, while it works on your traditional BlackBerry, it doesnt translate well to a touchscreen. The Storm 9550 will see minor improvements, as RIM is supposedly set to overhaul the Storm 3 for November.
Media Player is fine, as long as it plays movies and music is all i care about. Web Browser blows but Webkit should (emphasis on should) be here in the Summer, and will run on a proxy as well like it currently does.
Also, RIM is part of the Open Screen Project and is bringing Flash to their BlackBerry devices, but no release date has been given as of yet. They made this announcement when they announced support for OpenGL on their devices...which are currently only CDMA devices.
Right but who doesn't txt msg? I would assume most iPhone users add that extra fee for txt messaging.
What I was saying is ATT could have a non 3g option like Verizon has, that would not only sell more iPhone but it would bring in more customers and not put more stress on their already stressed 3G network. Those users could simply have an iPhone and use WiFi.
Like with Verizon this would offer an option to families that wanted to be on a family plan that don't have a need for data.
I don't do SMS. I have email and IM. Anyone who doesn't have a smartphone can call me. Pretty much everyone I know has a smartphone and the ones that don't would likely not know what an "SMS" is, and I'm not referring to the initialism.
An optional data plan would increase Apple's sales dramatically overnight. I'd think that many just want an iPod Touch + phone, but aren't near AT&T 3G or care about that much internet.
Perhaps we'll see it this year now that the iPad is contract free. Note: you'll have to pay more upfront if the only difference is a lack of carrier subsidization on data + phone. I don't see a version without 3G HW to appear unless Apple goes with a much smaller version akin to the iPod Nano, but that seems even less likely.
There is absolutely no way in the world VZW is paying RIM the same amount for 2 year subsidized phones and BOGO phones. The only way I can see that working is if VZW doesn't pay RIM a premium in the first place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail
No.
RIMs profits dont take a hit when carriers subsidize phones at their discretion. When RIM sells the phone to the carrier they are paid immediately. VZW pushes BlackBerry hard because they get the phones for roughly 230ish for a Curve 8530 and and 300ish for a 9630, so making that money up through subscription costs is nothing (only 10 of your 30 dollars go to RIM for BIS, so the carrier gets 480.00 over two years, covering the phone)
Consider that Jobs stated they want 1% of the handset market. That would mean Ballmer was making fun of the iPhone by claiming it would get 2 to 3 times as much sales, meaning 30M in the first year. It seems more likely he was saying Apple would only get 2-3% of the smartphone market, not 2-3x as much marketshare and sales than Jobs himself predicted.
So where does the reference to 1.3 billion phones fit in then?
The Storm is using a capacitive touchscreen (i had the 9530 from launch till last Sept when i got my Bold), but it uses Surepress technology as well.
That is what i'm referring to. SurePress makes typing slow. Can you turn it off? I didn't see a way. They need (all handset makers) to go with a better capacitance touchscreen. It was hard to say how the iPhone "experience" could be so much better than the others with large touchscreens, but it's been shown that Apple uses a better touchscreen. There are likely other aspects from the apps down to the firmware, but accuracy and speed in typing on the iPhone is great compared to other phones. This includes smartphones with tiny physical keyboards.
Quote:
Web Browser blows but Webkit should (emphasis on should) be here in the Summer, and will run on a proxy as well like it currently does.
I thought they used WebKit for their browser already. What engine are they using if it's not WebKit. A good browser is one of the most important features for users. If the iPhone had a poor browser experience I think their sales numbers would be cut in half.
There is absolutely no way in the world VZW is paying RIM the same amount for 2 year subsidized phones and BOGO phones.
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
What VZW phone are you talking about that offers 3G as an option? VZW is actually going in the opposite direction requiring their most desired phones to have data plans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater
What I was saying is ATT could have a non 3g option like Verizon has, that would not only sell more iPhone but it would bring in more customers and not put more stress on their already stressed 3G network. Those users could simply have an iPhone and use WiFi.
Like with Verizon this would offer an option to families that wanted to be on a family plan that don't have a need for data.
So where does the reference to 1.3 billion phones fit in then?
That's a good point, he does reference a number for the total handsets that hadn't yet occurred, but his later statements only make sense if he's talking about smartphones. I don't see Ballmer as being focused. That means Ballmer stated Apple may get 26 million to 39 million sales in their first year? That is a lot more than the 1% of 1 billion Jobs claimed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
Not by half, but if the lower the price by 20-30% (as an example) They get overall more sales, revenue and more total profit per quarter and Verizon gets to get more people into contracts. The problem with selling your wares for less revenue with the hope that increased sales will make up for it and then sum, is that it could backfire. RiM's profit has been up (at least the last two quarters) but that could be from other areas of business, though I suspect it's mostly from overall handset sales.
Yes there is indeed a difference between 2 year subsidized and BOGO. The Storm2 two year price is $279.99. An offer to give one away from free, VZW would have to eat $279.99. VZW is not paying RIM the same price for both phones. VZW is not going to swallow that $279.99.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
That is what i'm referring to. SurePress makes typing slow. Can you turn it off? I didn't see a way. They need (all handset makers) to go with a better capacitance touchscreen. It was hard to say how the iPhone "experience" could be so much better than the others with large touchscreens, but it's been shown that Apple uses a better touchscreen. There are likely other aspects from the apps down to the firmware, but accuracy and speed in typing on the iPhone is great compared to other phones. This includes smartphones with tiny physical keyboards.
There is no way to disable surepress currently. There is quite an uproar about it, and apparently there is about a 30% chance the new Storm 3 wont be sporting it. I personally typed pretty quickly on mine, but i never tried to push beyond say 40ish WPM cause the 9530 was very fickle and would break easily.
The 9530 had a terrible UI, massive glitches at launch (4.7.0.65 = EPIC FAIL) hardware issues and all kinds of shit, if you werent on crackberry download leaked firmwares you were probably going to sling your phone out the window. The 9550 is what the 9530 should have been, but the UI is STILL LACKING.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
I thought they used WebKit for their browser already. What engine are they using if it's not WebKit. A good browser is one of the most important features for users. If the iPhone had a poor browser experience I think their sales numbers would be cut in half.
No, its whatever RIM has built and used since day one. Its mediocre now, but javascript performance is god awful. They bought TorchMobile back in Nov or something so we know Webkit is coming. I doubt the iPhone would be hurt much by a lackluster browser, it doubles well as an iPod and is very simple to use. BlackBerry has always been superior at messaging of any kind, and why its such a popular device now. If the texting boom never happend i think RIM would still only be "corporate only"
Yes there is indeed a difference between 2 year subsidized and BOGO. The Storm2 two year price is $279.99. An offer to give one away from free, VZW would have to eat $279.99. VZW is not paying RIM the same price for both phones. VZW is not going to swallow that $279.99.
279.99 for a Storm and 30.00 monthly for required data plan. 10 dollars go to RIM a month so 20.00 x 24 months (term of contract) = 480.00 which is well less than what VZW pays for the phone. This isnt including any profit from texting and voice. VZW most likely gets the phone at 350ish.
This is no different than carriers paying 600 bucks for the iPhone and selling it at 199. They get the money back.
Remember all the hooplah with VZW charging out the yingyang for ETF, its cause they NEED you to stay for 2 years to make that money back and then some, people would get new BB, pay the 175 ETF and sell it on ebay for 500+
Perhaps, but since WinMo has never been made for general phones I have to assume he was implying the smartphone market with those figures. I can't imagine for a second that he expects MS to own 60-80% of the entire handset OS marketshare with just a smartphone OS.
I've attended conferences where Microsoft execs have spoken and it's always been stated that their long-term goal is to own a large chunk of the entire cell phone. The assumption has always been that smartphone adoption will rapidly grow as the cost barrier lowers.
The non-touchscreen version of Windows Mobile has relatively low hardware requirements and the cheapest phone based on it retails for around $100 unsubsidised.
Their goal wasn't so laughable before the iPhone and Android hit the scene. Times have changed and Microsoft's execution has been terrible.
I've attended conferences where Microsoft execs have spoken and it's always been stated that their long-term goal is to own a large chunk of the entire cell phone. The assumption has always been that smartphone adoption will rapidly grow as the cost barrier lowers.
The non-touchscreen version of Windows Mobile has relatively low hardware requirements and the cheapest phone based on it retails for around $100 unsubsidised.
Their goal wasn't so laughable before the iPhone and Android hit the scene. Times have changed and Microsoft's execution has been terrible.
I abjure from any more defense of Ballmer's comment. It was good deed for the day. I still get the points, though, which means I won't feel guilty for ripping TEKSTUD a new one... again.
I think you need to read it again. I can't see anywhere that Balmer said he was talking about smartphones only. In fact, the 1.3billion figure indicates he is talking about ALL mobile phones, and in that respect he is dead right about the 2-3% marketshare.
My point stands regardless of what Balmer was referring to, the fact that he seemed to be talking about smartphones is just icing on the cake.
In any case, the statement he made, at the time he made it, makes absolutely no sense unless he *was* talking about smartphone share as opposed to total market share, so I gave the tired old salesman the benefit of the doubt and ascribed his comments to talk of smartphone share only.
I guess I should have been meaner and said that the OP's argument was wrong all by itself, and
BTW Balmer is an idiot? But I don't actually think he's an idiot.
Balmer is a lot of things, (most of them nasty), but he isn't an idiot.
Amazing that Microsoft still has as much share as they do. Curious what devices drive their sales (in the US).
That is a good question. The answer is that the numbers are usage and not sales numbers. Hence, Microsoft going from say 18 to 17 % means there were more people leaving the platform than starting with it.
If people buy a new phone on average every 3 years, 33% is renewed each year. Losing 1% in usage market share means losing 3% in sales market share. So, Microsft dropping, say, from 18% to 17% would fit with dropping in sales from 12% to 9%. These are all made up numbers by me, but you get the point.
Comments
Right but who doesn't txt msg? I would assume most iPhone users add that extra fee for txt messaging.
My family doesn't have the texting plan. It's an extra cost you don't need. I mean you can send most people an email these days or you can use an application like textPlus, textNow, ect.
Someone is going to point out it's the carriers, not RiM, but they failing to note the initial price drop on RiM's end to make this possible with the same contract. RiM's longterm plan is going to hurt them. I really expected more from their Storms. They need to go with a capacitance touch screen and focus a little more on media and internet capabilities. Adobe isn't even making a version of Flash 10.1 for Blackberry, that'll upset some BB users.
You know i was going to call you on this one bro.
The Storm is using a capacitive touchscreen (i had the 9530 from launch till last Sept when i got my Bold), but it uses Surepress technology as well. If you like it or not is your decision. The UI is really the killer on the Storm, while it works on your traditional BlackBerry, it doesnt translate well to a touchscreen. The Storm 9550 will see minor improvements, as RIM is supposedly set to overhaul the Storm 3 for November.
Media Player is fine, as long as it plays movies and music is all i care about. Web Browser blows but Webkit should (emphasis on should) be here in the Summer, and will run on a proxy as well like it currently does.
Also, RIM is part of the Open Screen Project and is bringing Flash to their BlackBerry devices, but no release date has been given as of yet. They made this announcement when they announced support for OpenGL on their devices...which are currently only CDMA devices.
Right but who doesn't txt msg? I would assume most iPhone users add that extra fee for txt messaging.
What I was saying is ATT could have a non 3g option like Verizon has, that would not only sell more iPhone but it would bring in more customers and not put more stress on their already stressed 3G network. Those users could simply have an iPhone and use WiFi.
Like with Verizon this would offer an option to families that wanted to be on a family plan that don't have a need for data.
I don't do SMS. I have email and IM. Anyone who doesn't have a smartphone can call me. Pretty much everyone I know has a smartphone and the ones that don't would likely not know what an "SMS" is, and I'm not referring to the initialism.
An optional data plan would increase Apple's sales dramatically overnight. I'd think that many just want an iPod Touch + phone, but aren't near AT&T 3G or care about that much internet.
Perhaps we'll see it this year now that the iPad is contract free. Note: you'll have to pay more upfront if the only difference is a lack of carrier subsidization on data + phone. I don't see a version without 3G HW to appear unless Apple goes with a much smaller version akin to the iPod Nano, but that seems even less likely.
No.
RIMs profits dont take a hit when carriers subsidize phones at their discretion. When RIM sells the phone to the carrier they are paid immediately. VZW pushes BlackBerry hard because they get the phones for roughly 230ish for a Curve 8530 and and 300ish for a 9630, so making that money up through subscription costs is nothing (only 10 of your 30 dollars go to RIM for BIS, so the carrier gets 480.00 over two years, covering the phone)
Consider that Jobs stated they want 1% of the handset market. That would mean Ballmer was making fun of the iPhone by claiming it would get 2 to 3 times as much sales, meaning 30M in the first year. It seems more likely he was saying Apple would only get 2-3% of the smartphone market, not 2-3x as much marketshare and sales than Jobs himself predicted.
So where does the reference to 1.3 billion phones fit in then?
You know i was going to call you on this one bro.
The Storm is using a capacitive touchscreen (i had the 9530 from launch till last Sept when i got my Bold), but it uses Surepress technology as well.
That is what i'm referring to. SurePress makes typing slow. Can you turn it off? I didn't see a way. They need (all handset makers) to go with a better capacitance touchscreen. It was hard to say how the iPhone "experience" could be so much better than the others with large touchscreens, but it's been shown that Apple uses a better touchscreen. There are likely other aspects from the apps down to the firmware, but accuracy and speed in typing on the iPhone is great compared to other phones. This includes smartphones with tiny physical keyboards.
Web Browser blows but Webkit should (emphasis on should) be here in the Summer, and will run on a proxy as well like it currently does.
I thought they used WebKit for their browser already. What engine are they using if it's not WebKit. A good browser is one of the most important features for users. If the iPhone had a poor browser experience I think their sales numbers would be cut in half.
There is absolutely no way in the world VZW is paying RIM the same amount for 2 year subsidized phones and BOGO phones.
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
What I was saying is ATT could have a non 3g option like Verizon has, that would not only sell more iPhone but it would bring in more customers and not put more stress on their already stressed 3G network. Those users could simply have an iPhone and use WiFi.
Like with Verizon this would offer an option to families that wanted to be on a family plan that don't have a need for data.
So where does the reference to 1.3 billion phones fit in then?
That's a good point, he does reference a number for the total handsets that hadn't yet occurred, but his later statements only make sense if he's talking about smartphones. I don't see Ballmer as being focused. That means Ballmer stated Apple may get 26 million to 39 million sales in their first year? That is a lot more than the 1% of 1 billion Jobs claimed.
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
Not by half, but if the lower the price by 20-30% (as an example) They get overall more sales, revenue and more total profit per quarter and Verizon gets to get more people into contracts. The problem with selling your wares for less revenue with the hope that increased sales will make up for it and then sum, is that it could backfire. RiM's profit has been up (at least the last two quarters) but that could be from other areas of business, though I suspect it's mostly from overall handset sales.
There is no difference between a subsidized and a BOGO lol. You just get a better subsidization price (free initially).
Im sure VZW gets a lower price than other carriers for BlackBerrys since they move so many, but to think they are getting these phones half off from RIM is absurd.
That is what i'm referring to. SurePress makes typing slow. Can you turn it off? I didn't see a way. They need (all handset makers) to go with a better capacitance touchscreen. It was hard to say how the iPhone "experience" could be so much better than the others with large touchscreens, but it's been shown that Apple uses a better touchscreen. There are likely other aspects from the apps down to the firmware, but accuracy and speed in typing on the iPhone is great compared to other phones. This includes smartphones with tiny physical keyboards.
There is no way to disable surepress currently. There is quite an uproar about it, and apparently there is about a 30% chance the new Storm 3 wont be sporting it. I personally typed pretty quickly on mine, but i never tried to push beyond say 40ish WPM cause the 9530 was very fickle and would break easily.
The 9530 had a terrible UI, massive glitches at launch (4.7.0.65 = EPIC FAIL) hardware issues and all kinds of shit, if you werent on crackberry download leaked firmwares you were probably going to sling your phone out the window. The 9550 is what the 9530 should have been, but the UI is STILL LACKING.
I thought they used WebKit for their browser already. What engine are they using if it's not WebKit. A good browser is one of the most important features for users. If the iPhone had a poor browser experience I think their sales numbers would be cut in half.
No, its whatever RIM has built and used since day one. Its mediocre now, but javascript performance is god awful. They bought TorchMobile back in Nov or something so we know Webkit is coming. I doubt the iPhone would be hurt much by a lackluster browser, it doubles well as an iPod and is very simple to use. BlackBerry has always been superior at messaging of any kind, and why its such a popular device now. If the texting boom never happend i think RIM would still only be "corporate only"
Yes there is indeed a difference between 2 year subsidized and BOGO. The Storm2 two year price is $279.99. An offer to give one away from free, VZW would have to eat $279.99. VZW is not paying RIM the same price for both phones. VZW is not going to swallow that $279.99.
279.99 for a Storm and 30.00 monthly for required data plan. 10 dollars go to RIM a month so 20.00 x 24 months (term of contract) = 480.00 which is well less than what VZW pays for the phone. This isnt including any profit from texting and voice. VZW most likely gets the phone at 350ish.
This is no different than carriers paying 600 bucks for the iPhone and selling it at 199. They get the money back.
Remember all the hooplah with VZW charging out the yingyang for ETF, its cause they NEED you to stay for 2 years to make that money back and then some, people would get new BB, pay the 175 ETF and sell it on ebay for 500+
Perhaps, but since WinMo has never been made for general phones I have to assume he was implying the smartphone market with those figures. I can't imagine for a second that he expects MS to own 60-80% of the entire handset OS marketshare with just a smartphone OS.
I've attended conferences where Microsoft execs have spoken and it's always been stated that their long-term goal is to own a large chunk of the entire cell phone. The assumption has always been that smartphone adoption will rapidly grow as the cost barrier lowers.
The non-touchscreen version of Windows Mobile has relatively low hardware requirements and the cheapest phone based on it retails for around $100 unsubsidised.
Their goal wasn't so laughable before the iPhone and Android hit the scene. Times have changed and Microsoft's execution has been terrible.
I've attended conferences where Microsoft execs have spoken and it's always been stated that their long-term goal is to own a large chunk of the entire cell phone. The assumption has always been that smartphone adoption will rapidly grow as the cost barrier lowers.
The non-touchscreen version of Windows Mobile has relatively low hardware requirements and the cheapest phone based on it retails for around $100 unsubsidised.
Their goal wasn't so laughable before the iPhone and Android hit the scene. Times have changed and Microsoft's execution has been terrible.
I abjure from any more defense of Ballmer's comment. It was good deed for the day. I still get the points, though, which means I won't feel guilty for ripping TEKSTUD a new one... again.
I think you need to read it again. I can't see anywhere that Balmer said he was talking about smartphones only. In fact, the 1.3billion figure indicates he is talking about ALL mobile phones, and in that respect he is dead right about the 2-3% marketshare.
My point stands regardless of what Balmer was referring to, the fact that he seemed to be talking about smartphones is just icing on the cake.
In any case, the statement he made, at the time he made it, makes absolutely no sense unless he *was* talking about smartphone share as opposed to total market share, so I gave the tired old salesman the benefit of the doubt and ascribed his comments to talk of smartphone share only.
I guess I should have been meaner and said that the OP's argument was wrong all by itself, and
BTW Balmer is an idiot? But I don't actually think he's an idiot.
Balmer is a lot of things, (most of them nasty), but he isn't an idiot.
This is no different than carriers paying 600 bucks for the iPhone and selling it at 199. They get the money back.
AT&T isn't offering to give any iPhone's away for free.
Missing my point here
(phone sold to AT&T) 600-200.00 (price of phone) = 400 to make up over contract
(phone sold to VZW) 350/400-0.00 (price of phone) = 350/400 to make up over contract
Im not sure how much clearer i can get, there is no damn difference.
EDIT: There are carriers that give it away for free as well
Missing my point here
(phone sold to AT&T) 600-200.00 (price of phone) = 400 to make up over contract
(phone sold to VZW) 350/400-0.00 (price of phone) = 350/400 to make up over contract
Im not sure how much clearer i can get, there is no damn difference.
I the average iPhone subsidy is less by about $50-70, if I recall Apple's average take correctly.
Do BBs require a contract on Verizon of you go with a BOGO deal and do you have to get both activated at time of purchase?
Amazing that Microsoft still has as much share as they do. Curious what devices drive their sales (in the US).
That is a good question. The answer is that the numbers are usage and not sales numbers. Hence, Microsoft going from say 18 to 17 % means there were more people leaving the platform than starting with it.
If people buy a new phone on average every 3 years, 33% is renewed each year. Losing 1% in usage market share means losing 3% in sales market share. So, Microsft dropping, say, from 18% to 17% would fit with dropping in sales from 12% to 9%. These are all made up numbers by me, but you get the point.
RIM does not sell buy one get one, the carriers do.
Do you have any sources that reveal that RIM does NOT absorb some portion of the revenue reduction?