Strong Mac, iPhone sales projected to propel Apple stock to $280

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  • Reply 21 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.



    Honestly just asking because that seem like a fairly big step down.



    Not speaking for him, but I could see why many people would: the price difference.



    Moreover, I see the iPad's success as not a substitute, but as a complement.
  • Reply 22 of 106
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 989member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.



    Honestly just asking because that seem like a fairly big step down.



    As I said I'll be also getting a Mac mini.



    Here the many reasons I decided to go for an iPad instead of a MacBook Air:
    1. Weighs 50% less

    2. 2x the battery life

    3. More portable

    4. Boots in under 15 seconds

    5. Easier to use when on the bus

    I understand what I'm sacrificing and they don't bother me.
  • Reply 23 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


    As I said I'll be also getting a Mac mini.



    Here the many reasons I decided to go for an iPad instead of a MacBook Air:
    1. Weighs 50% less

    2. 2x the battery life

    3. More portable

    4. Boots in under 15 seconds

    5. Easier to use when on the bus

    I understand what I'm sacrificing and they don't bother me.



    Battery life will be nice. I am just hoping the iPhone 4.0 gets some added features like third party app multitasking. I would have liked Flash but I can live without that but I really would like multitasking.



    The new Mini's are really a step up from the last few models so those should work rather well for you.
  • Reply 24 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.



    Honestly just asking because that seem like a fairly big step down.



    Also not speaking for him, sometimes less is more. Specifically, when there are a bunch of features that I don't use, whether in an OS X laptop or M$ Word or a VCR, these extra features actually detract from the user experience and from those features that I do use. Apple helps people focus by leaving things out. Just as there are plenty of people who only use 10% of M$ Word, there are plenty of people who only use %10 of a laptop's capabilities. The iPad addresses this market beautifully.



    The iPad doesn't pretend to be a general purpose computer, it doesn't want to be a general purpose computer, so it's rather silly to criticize it for not being one. Those people who need general purpose computers should buy one, but they shouldn't assume that everybody else also needs all the capabilities and associated complexity of a general purpose computer.
  • Reply 25 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TEKSTUD View Post


    You know, I've been thinking (no laughs please) and I think the iPad will do amazing business with those over 60 who aren't technologicaly inclined. You could buy your parents/granparents an iPad , pay for their 3G contract and they would be good to go. And once they can print easily from them it will be instoppable. Imagine the peer pressure in places like Florida.





    haha funny you say that, I'm thinking of buying one for my mum who is 65 and has never touched a computer in her life.



    Another one of my friends who has never touched a computer EVER is also buying an iPad. Thats an astonishing feat, honestly this girl is prehistoric, and even she wants one.
  • Reply 26 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Not speaking for him, but I could see why many people would: the price difference.



    Moreover, I see the iPad's success as not a substitute, but as a complement.



    Thats why I was asking because he was going to use the iPad as a substitute going from a Macbook Air to the iPad. Seems like a pretty big drop. The iPad meets my needs in alot of ways as an addon but I really don't want something that can't multitask. I know that has been brought up alot and it the term is getting old but for me right now it would keep me from getting one. I am hoping iPhone 4.0 will address that issue. I also believe the 16GB version isn't going to last long at all and the 32GB will drop to 499.00 fairly fast. Not that I really see 100.00 for double the storage as being all that much.
  • Reply 27 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Although the iPad could cannibalize some Mac sales, it has the potential to significantly increase Apple's share of the K-12 market," he wrote. "The iPad should also prove popular as an interactive textbook reader in the higher education market where there are 17 million students.



    What won't happen is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales.



    What he doesn't realize is that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod all support the sale of a Mac. They do not replace a Mac, they are complementary. If anything, they require the person to buy a Mac.



    Thus the iPad would accelerate Mac sales.



    For every iPad sold, there is going to be an increase in Mac sales.
  • Reply 28 of 106
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post


    I doubt it will get that high.



    In the next year or ever?





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


    My bet is that Apple sell twice as many iPad's as they currently sell Mac's, within 5 years.



    I think that is very likely, even much sooner. It is half the price as a MB. What's Apple estimate for the first year? 4M? That is what Mac sales will likely be at by the holidays.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    They were predicting it would be at 250-270 three months ago and all it has done is go down. As low as 192 in the last three months. Its still under 200 it will stay close to that if not lower. Apple is following the market trend and will continue to do so. Everyday the Nasdaq is up, Apple is up, everyday its down Apple follows.



    This is the first time I've seen you admit that the market as a whole affects the stocks. Tech stocks tend to act react quickly to market changes. If the market booms this year we could easily see a 40% increase in a year for Apple. Note that they went from about $85 to $210 in the last year while the NASDAQ has less than doubled in that same time frame.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


    Yes.

    And don't play on me that $30 * 24 = OMG it is expensive!



    I would have gotten a 3G USB for the MacBook Air. I NEED on the go Internet.



    I really wold love a 3G card option in Mac notebooks. At least in the MBA. This device screaming for it
  • Reply 29 of 106
    markbmarkb Posts: 153member
    Quote:

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by monstrosity

    My bet is that Apple sell twice as many iPad's as they currently sell Mac's, within 5 years.



    Are you saying it will bleed Mac sales?



    The impact the iPad will have on sales is very difficult to judge. You will still need a computer to back it up I assume? As well as to update system software. With the limited (and volitile) memory no one will have one of these without some form of main CPU.



    I would guess it will decrease notebook sales a good bit (really makes the macbook airs already small market niche virtually disappear), but might encourage a large increase in desktop sales or shift to the heavy end of the notebook realm (i.e. less macbooks 13s and alot more macbook pro 17s).



    Not that they have any qualms about being wildly wrong, but I would hate to be an analyst trying to handicap this thing.
  • Reply 30 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    This is the first time I've seen you admit that the market as a whole affects the stocks. Tech stocks tend to act react quickly to market changes. If the market booms this year we could easily see a 40% increase in a year for Apple. Note that they went from about $85 to $210 in the last year while the NASDAQ has less than doubled in that same time frame.



    I am fairly certainly I have posted that a good bit on this forum when projections like this are made.



    I have said many times the reality of the market is there is no reality...lol. Everything is based on perception. Steve Jobs could get a cold and Apple stock could drop 10 points. Its that crazy at times and makes no sense.



    With as well as Apple is doing in a good economy their stock could hit these targets but not with the market in this state of panic all the time. Apple like most are a victim of the market right now.
  • Reply 31 of 106
    That target price chart is a sick joke for Apple. Every time Apple stock got upgraded it went down, down and down. Same thing happened today. It appears that Apple stock may have an artificial ceiling of about $200 a share. Although it did touch $215 a share briefly this year and then quickly slid down again below $200 . I'll give it some allowance since the DJIA lost about 400 points over that time. Considering how far down the DJIA has dropped since December 2007, I guess Apple has fared relatively well.
  • Reply 32 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I am fairly certainly I have posted that a good bit on this forum when projections like this are made.



    I have said many times the reality of the market is there is no reality...lol. Everything is based on perception. Steve Jobs could get a cold and Apple stock could drop 10 points. Its that crazy at times and makes no sense.



    With as well as Apple is doing in a good economy their stock could hit these targets but not with the market in this state of panic all the time. Apple like most are a victim of the market right now.



    For maybe the first time ever I agree with you, about the unreality of stock valuation -- in the short to medium term, anyway. Looking for logic in the markets is (to borrow the term) an exercise in futility. But in the end, and over the long haul, earnings will out over emotions, and stocks tend to be priced, in some way, on EPS.



    Now, all that being said, AAPL's P/E has been in substantial decline for the last couple of years, meaning that the stock price has been flat even as earnings have soared. If AAPL was selling for the same P/E today as it was two years ago, the stock would already be at around $400. The aggregated P/E for the markets as a whole have also declined a lot during this time period, but not that much.



    Good luck trying to figure out what the markets are saying collectively. AlI I can say based on the numbers is that AAPL could easily be at $280 if market sentiments changed significantly, if only because that would only return AAPL's P/E to something closer to but still below its recent average.
  • Reply 33 of 106
    Quote:

    I was originally considering a MacBook Air for home and on the go use. Now I'll get an iPad for mobile use, and get a Mac mini for home use. Both will cost me less than the MacBook Air.



    Quote:

    Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.



    I think the second above quoted post, in response to the first, sums up perfectly the mindset of those who just don't understand what the iPad is, as well as where and how it will fit into peoples lives.



    Most people don't need a laptop (used in the broad sense of including all portable devices with a hinged screen and keyboard, so including MBAs, MBPs, traditional PC laptops and netbooks) when they are "mobile". We already see this with the number of people who have laptops but mostly leave them at home and use smartphones to do the things they need to do. Very few people actually need the functionality a laptop provides when away from home and work. Even fewer people (perhaps none) need the functionality of a laptop in the living room or kitchen (assuming for the sake of argument that the desk/table/whatever where they do the bulk of their "serious" computing is not located in one of those rooms in their home). The very few people who do need this functionality are that tiny minority of relatively mobile content creators: writers, programmers, graphic artists, etc. who are either often "on the road" or for whom the ability to do creative work anywhere, at any time, is critical.



    For everyone else, hauling a laptop around, or, I should say, having to haul a heavy, bulky, awkward-to-use-without-a-desk-or-table-top laptop around is entirely disadvantageous. A smartphone that fits in your pocket is the ultimate in convenience and portability, but the relatively tiny screen size makes these far less than ideal in all situations. A touch tablet overcomes the disadvantages of both of these and, for the type of computing that the vast majority of users do when not at home, has few, if any disadvantages.



    A touch tablet also frees the user from being chained to a flat work surface, so it's perfect for web browsing, checking email, sketching, reading, etc. from the comfort of your couch or for consulting a recipe in the kitchen, or reading the New York Times at a coffee shop. The iPad is the embodiment of casual, ubiquitous, natural computing: so natural and simple that the computer effectively disappears.



    With an iPad you aren't really giving up any functionality, because you weren't using that functionality anyway. In other words, with a laptop, most people are just hauling this cumbersome device around to do exactly what an iPad is designed to do without the inconveniences of a laptop.



    For some people -- people who either don't own a computer now, or who own one but never use but for web surfing and maybe email -- an iPad may be all they need. For those who do need to "do serious work" on a computer, it makes much more sense to have a "desktop" with a large screen (or screens) that maximizes productivity on their desk at home and in the office, and an iPad for use around and outside the house, as well as for professionals who do not work in a traditional office environment, but are frequently not at desks -- e.g., doctors and (laboratory) scientists.



    The laptop has had a good run, but I think its popularity is coming to an end. But, although many people will buy iPads instead of laptops, most of those people will also buy desktops. So while the iPad may appear to cannibalize laptop sales, it will actually be shifting those sales to dual form factors of desktop and tablet, because this combination maximizes both productivity and convenience.



    Those comparing iPads to laptops simply don't understand what the iPad is, nor what a laptop is.
  • Reply 34 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Thats why I was asking because he was going to use the iPad as a substitute going from a Macbook Air to the iPad. Seems like a pretty big drop. The iPad meets my needs in alot of ways as an addon but I really don't want something that can't multitask. I know that has been brought up alot and it the term is getting old but for me right now it would keep me from getting one. I am hoping iPhone 4.0 will address that issue. I also believe the 16GB version isn't going to last long at all and the 32GB will drop to 499.00 fairly fast. Not that I really see 100.00 for double the storage as being all that much.



    I agree about multitasking. That would be a deal-breaking attribute for me.



    Flash, webcam, etc are somewhat unimportant to me.
  • Reply 35 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I agree about multitasking. That would be a deal-breaking attribute for me.



    Flash, webcam, etc are somewhat unimportant to me.



    I agree. I don't see myself having a need to do a video conference using the iPad. Cameras and webcams in general are fairly useless to me. I'm not sure I have ever even used my webcam on my MBP.



    You looking to get an iPad farily soon after its released or are you going to wait it out a bit?
  • Reply 36 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    For maybe the first time ever I agree with you, about the unreality of stock valuation -- in the short to medium term, anyway. Looking for logic in the markets is (to borrow the term) an exercise in futility. But in the end, and over the long haul, earnings will out over emotions, and stocks tend to be priced, in some way, on EPS.



    Now, all that being said, AAPL's P/E has been in substantial decline for the last couple of years, meaning that the stock price has been flat even as earnings have soared. If AAPL was selling for the same P/E today as it was two years ago, the stock would already be at around $400. The aggregated P/E for the markets as a whole have also declined a lot during this time period, but not that much.



    Good luck trying to figure out what the markets are saying collectively. AlI I can say based on the numbers is that AAPL could easily be at $280 if market sentiments changed significantly, if only because that would only return AAPL's P/E to something closer to but still below its recent average.



    I agree if the Apple had reported these earnings and sales when the market was at 14,000, not sure what the Nasdaq was at the stock would have jumped a good bit. The market is just flat as hell right now because of the uncertainty of the US government. Everytime Obama opens his mouth I know my 401k is going to drop..lol
  • Reply 37 of 106
    hfuhfu Posts: 55member
    Every time when some analysts started bulling the target price on AAPL, you know it's about time to retreat. The next 52-week high maybe after 2011. AAPL would look more attractive when it dips to 2- digit range.
  • Reply 38 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.



    Honestly just asking because that seem like a fairly big step down.



    I believe current skeptics will think much differently in 6-12 months when we'll understand more of how functional this iPad truly is. I predict it'll meet and/or surpass the functionality of most laptops within 12 months. Just wait. Though it's hard to see at this point in time, the iPad has HUGE potential.
  • Reply 39 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Everytime Obama opens his mouth I know my 401k is going to drop..lol



    SOOOO True! \
  • Reply 40 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I agree if the Apple had reported these earnings and sales when the market was at 14,000, not sure what the Nasdaq was at the stock would have jumped a good bit. The market is just flat as hell right now because of the uncertainty of the US government. Everytime Obama opens his mouth I know my 401k is going to drop..lol



    We've been through economic hell and haven't come back again. The result is declining P/E overall, which is a general measure of investor confidence in future growth in profits, which is hardly going to be bullish considering what we've been through. A couple of years ago the high P/E of the standard indexes had the chart watchers worried, as it always does. I believe AAPL touched 50 times earnings at one point, or very close, which is extremely bullish and probably unsustainable. The irony for AAPL is that they've been able to continue to grow earnings strongly even through the recession, which hasn't been reflected at all in the stock price. The result is a relatively bearish P/E which could be interpreted as a lack of investor confidence in Apple's ability to sustain their recent growth. I'd prefer to think otherwise, but probably at least in part because I've got quite a bit on the line. Time will tell, as it always does.



    Please cut the politics -- they have no place in this discussion.
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