Yeah, everyone thinks that. Maybe Motorola or Nokia will capitalize on this horrific mistake Apple is making.
Apple's wake is littered with the unprofitable remains of product lines or even whole companies who thought Apple was missing "important potential profits."
If restraint weren't subtle and elusive everyone would have it.
I'm not arguing against Apple showing restraint. I'm arguing against the hypothesis that they are showing restraint in this case because they want to have only one model of iPhone throughout the world. That clearly makes no sense. I think there has to be a different reason why Apple refuses to work with either Verizon or China Mobile (and in my original post I listed some possibilities).
I just don't believe that Apple is really refusing to make phones for Verizon or China Mobile just because they want a single set of models for all the world. It just makes no economic sense. Both Verizon and China Mobile are large enough to justify the investment.
I find it much easier to believe that:
1. China Mobile and Verizon are both making other demands that Apple finds unreasonable, either individually or as a package.
or
2. AT&T and China Unicom might have made deals with Apple that are very favorable to Apple and that neither China Mobile or Verizon are willing to match. For example, AT&T's pricing on the iPad data plan is pretty freakin' awesome.
Apple folded like a cheap tent with China Unicom. It was quite unlike Apple (and I suspect it was Tim Cook, since I recall a lot of if happened during SJ's absence).
China Mobile got pushed into the tech equivalent of a dead end with TD-SCDMA, regardless of the merits of this technology. UMTS/3G got huge economies of scale and any savings that the TD-SCDMA phones have in licensing will be more than offset by the higher cost of manufacturing for this tech.
In the market place in China, the UMTS/3G standard will offer a much larger selection, including some dirt cheap used phones. With the higher end customer, this standard allows them to roam outside mainland China. That is why China Unicom and China Telecom are gaining market share... 50% of the new subs is a huge chunk for the smaller carriers.
No, his Steveness - like Napoleon Bonaparte during his coronation - will not kneel before mere mortals!
I see your arguments (strengths and faults,) but you seem unable to see any but your own.
I'm well aware of economic trends in China having lived and worked there for a few years. Despite what you might think, the Chinese middle class is not nealy as large nor as wealthy as you imagine. Also, Apple will sell products at a premium, not a loss or even a modest profit, even in China (yes, with over a billion people.)
You, in fact brought up Verizon as being so small relative to CU. My point is compared to Verizon, ATT is the small carrier in the US ( just as CU is in China) yet Apple is the most profitable smartphone vendor in the US anyway! So why are you so stuck on how small CU is relative to CM?
I don't think there will be a lot of iPhones sold in the PRC no matter what standard or carrier they go with. But I do think Apple will continue to be the most profitable smartphone producer in the world, even without taking your incredibly excellent advice.
Now let's just wait and see what happens and then we'll know if your carefully scaled estimates come true, or if they will just be moot. It will be interesting.
I'm not arguing against Apple showing restraint. I'm arguing against the hypothesis that they are showing restraint in this case because they want to have only one model of iPhone throughout the world. That clearly makes no sense. I think there has to be a different reason why Apple refuses to work with either Verizon or China Mobile (and in my original post I listed some possibilities).
Yeah, I get it. While likely there is more to it than simple slavish devotion to offering just one phone standard, I think they would definitely prefer just one if possible. You will see no Motorola/Nokia/BB style product shotgunning from Apple.
I frankly was amazed they went through with producing a no WiFi phone for CU!
China Mobile got pushed into the tech equivalent of a dead end with TD-SCDMA, regardless of the merits of this technology. UMTS/3G got huge economies of scale and any savings that the TD-SCDMA phones have in licensing will be more than offset by the higher cost of manufacturing for this tech.
In the market place in China, the UMTS/3G standard will offer a much larger selection, including some dirt cheap used phones. With the higher end customer, this standard allows them to roam outside mainland China. That is why China Unicom and China Telecom are gaining market share... 50% of the new subs is a huge chunk for the smaller carriers.
No, his Steveness - like Napoleon Bonaparte during his coronation - will not kneel before mere mortals!
Just to throw another random thought into the mix, ... Apple, like many other companies, has been pursuing the idea of an all software radio for some time.
The very underwhelming technology Apple ended up using in the iPad makes me doubt they have the chops to make this happen, but it would sure be nice. If the hardware could stay the same, and the software merely adjust itself for whatever network it happens to find itself on, then that seems like the Holy Grail of mobiles to me.
Not sure about the iPad comment but Apple certainly has the ability to integrate technologies on it's own silicon and the iPhone is definitely a target hence the extra chip isn't required. Whether this manifests itself as a single chip software radio on DSP logic or a dedicated 'A5c' it should still be viable for the sales volume China can generate.
In fact unifying fragmented network technologies under the iPhone platform is a serious advantage.
I'd be opposed to a Verizon iPhone and Apple bending in any way to utilise the China Mobile TS-SCDMA standard. All of the networks that chosen an outdated technology, need to quietly acknowledge they got it wrong and retrofit their stations to GSM.
Let me quote Larry David: "What are you, fucking nuts??????"
Yeah, I get it. While likely there is more to it than simple slavish devotion to offering just one phone standard, I think they would definitely prefer just one if possible. You will see no Motorola/Nokia/BB style product shotgunning from Apple.
I frankly was amazed they went through with producing a no WiFi phone for CU!
Yeah, i was amazed by that, too -- that clearly made no sense.
I don't understand the opposition to selling iPhones with radios that work with other networks. Millions of people use them, why not make a device that you can sell to them? Even a "dying" standard is not dead right now. Contracts are short-term, iPhone model upgrades are even shorter, while network migration to other standards is fairly slow in comparison. By the time these other standards are truly replaced, iPhone models will have gone though several more generations and customers will have gone through several contracts. I say take their money now, while they're actually holding it in front of your face begging you to take it.
This will not happen because of similar reasons why it did not happen for Verizon.
I think would cost too much and not be worth while because 4G is coming soon.
All the special network updates done with AT&T would have to be done with China Mobile in for the iPhone to be fully usable. China Mobile would never agree to this either.
2. Apple already delivers a different device in China. So it is already differentiated from the "one device for the entire world"
True, but we still haven't gotten word on how they removed WiFi. It could be a driver/OS exclusion, the WiFi antenna removal, or a MoBo redesign replacing the WiFi+BT+EDR chip with a BT+EDR chip. I wish I could find a breakdown of the China Unicom iPhone. \
Comments
Yeah, everyone thinks that. Maybe Motorola or Nokia will capitalize on this horrific mistake Apple is making.
Apple's wake is littered with the unprofitable remains of product lines or even whole companies who thought Apple was missing "important potential profits."
If restraint weren't subtle and elusive everyone would have it.
I'm not arguing against Apple showing restraint. I'm arguing against the hypothesis that they are showing restraint in this case because they want to have only one model of iPhone throughout the world. That clearly makes no sense. I think there has to be a different reason why Apple refuses to work with either Verizon or China Mobile (and in my original post I listed some possibilities).
I just don't believe that Apple is really refusing to make phones for Verizon or China Mobile just because they want a single set of models for all the world. It just makes no economic sense. Both Verizon and China Mobile are large enough to justify the investment.
I find it much easier to believe that:
1. China Mobile and Verizon are both making other demands that Apple finds unreasonable, either individually or as a package.
or
2. AT&T and China Unicom might have made deals with Apple that are very favorable to Apple and that neither China Mobile or Verizon are willing to match. For example, AT&T's pricing on the iPad data plan is pretty freakin' awesome.
Apple folded like a cheap tent with China Unicom. It was quite unlike Apple (and I suspect it was Tim Cook, since I recall a lot of if happened during SJ's absence).
That deal was an embarrassment, let's be clear.
In the market place in China, the UMTS/3G standard will offer a much larger selection, including some dirt cheap used phones. With the higher end customer, this standard allows them to roam outside mainland China. That is why China Unicom and China Telecom are gaining market share... 50% of the new subs is a huge chunk for the smaller carriers.
No, his Steveness - like Napoleon Bonaparte during his coronation - will not kneel before mere mortals!
I see your arguments (strengths and faults,) but you seem unable to see any but your own.
I'm well aware of economic trends in China having lived and worked there for a few years. Despite what you might think, the Chinese middle class is not nealy as large nor as wealthy as you imagine. Also, Apple will sell products at a premium, not a loss or even a modest profit, even in China (yes, with over a billion people.)
You, in fact brought up Verizon as being so small relative to CU. My point is compared to Verizon, ATT is the small carrier in the US ( just as CU is in China) yet Apple is the most profitable smartphone vendor in the US anyway! So why are you so stuck on how small CU is relative to CM?
I don't think there will be a lot of iPhones sold in the PRC no matter what standard or carrier they go with. But I do think Apple will continue to be the most profitable smartphone producer in the world, even without taking your incredibly excellent advice.
Now let's just wait and see what happens and then we'll know if your carefully scaled estimates come true, or if they will just be moot. It will be interesting.
I'm not arguing against Apple showing restraint. I'm arguing against the hypothesis that they are showing restraint in this case because they want to have only one model of iPhone throughout the world. That clearly makes no sense. I think there has to be a different reason why Apple refuses to work with either Verizon or China Mobile (and in my original post I listed some possibilities).
Yeah, I get it. While likely there is more to it than simple slavish devotion to offering just one phone standard, I think they would definitely prefer just one if possible. You will see no Motorola/Nokia/BB style product shotgunning from Apple.
I frankly was amazed they went through with producing a no WiFi phone for CU!
China Mobile got pushed into the tech equivalent of a dead end with TD-SCDMA, regardless of the merits of this technology. UMTS/3G got huge economies of scale and any savings that the TD-SCDMA phones have in licensing will be more than offset by the higher cost of manufacturing for this tech.
In the market place in China, the UMTS/3G standard will offer a much larger selection, including some dirt cheap used phones. With the higher end customer, this standard allows them to roam outside mainland China. That is why China Unicom and China Telecom are gaining market share... 50% of the new subs is a huge chunk for the smaller carriers.
No, his Steveness - like Napoleon Bonaparte during his coronation - will not kneel before mere mortals!
I would tend to agree.
Just to throw another random thought into the mix, ... Apple, like many other companies, has been pursuing the idea of an all software radio for some time.
The very underwhelming technology Apple ended up using in the iPad makes me doubt they have the chops to make this happen, but it would sure be nice. If the hardware could stay the same, and the software merely adjust itself for whatever network it happens to find itself on, then that seems like the Holy Grail of mobiles to me.
Not sure about the iPad comment but Apple certainly has the ability to integrate technologies on it's own silicon and the iPhone is definitely a target hence the extra chip isn't required. Whether this manifests itself as a single chip software radio on DSP logic or a dedicated 'A5c' it should still be viable for the sales volume China can generate.
In fact unifying fragmented network technologies under the iPhone platform is a serious advantage.
McD
I'd be opposed to a Verizon iPhone and Apple bending in any way to utilise the China Mobile TS-SCDMA standard. All of the networks that chosen an outdated technology, need to quietly acknowledge they got it wrong and retrofit their stations to GSM.
Let me quote Larry David: "What are you, fucking nuts??????"
Yeah, I get it. While likely there is more to it than simple slavish devotion to offering just one phone standard, I think they would definitely prefer just one if possible. You will see no Motorola/Nokia/BB style product shotgunning from Apple.
I frankly was amazed they went through with producing a no WiFi phone for CU!
Yeah, i was amazed by that, too -- that clearly made no sense.
I think would cost too much and not be worth while because 4G is coming soon.
All the special network updates done with AT&T would have to be done with China Mobile in for the iPhone to be fully usable. China Mobile would never agree to this either.
Time will tell.
2. Apple already delivers a different device in China. So it is already differentiated from the "one device for the entire world"
2. Apple already delivers a different device in China. So it is already differentiated from the "one device for the entire world"
True, but we still haven't gotten word on how they removed WiFi. It could be a driver/OS exclusion, the WiFi antenna removal, or a MoBo redesign replacing the WiFi+BT+EDR chip with a BT+EDR chip. I wish I could find a breakdown of the China Unicom iPhone.
Ah, the wonders of communism.
Are you referring to Verizon and Sprint (CDMA)?