Could have been 10.5 million iPhones if Apple seized their surprise touchscreen advantage and invaded the business market.
Missed opportunity or deliberate avoidance, guess Apple doesn't deem themselves good enough for the enterprise space. Oh well, back to fruity phones, colorful icons and cheap games instead of serious business tools.
Apple sold 8.7m iPhones in its last quarter at an average selling price (ASP) of $638. I think Apple could've easily sold 10.5m if they settled for RIM's ASP of $311 by selling mostly cheap text-messaging/email "smartphones".
You know why the RIM ASP is so low? Because of 1) BOGO free deals where RIM has to eat some of that cost and 2) RIM is selling more cheaper Curve "smartphones" to consumers and less Bold, Tour, and Storm smartphones. (By the way, more BBs are sold to consumers than enterprise these days.)
And the consequence? Changewave reports that only 38% of RIM owners in their survey are very satisfied with their Blackberry. (76% of iPhone owners and 65% of Android owners say that.) Why? I think people are realizing there are two types of smartphones: the type like iPhone (and Android/maybe Palm) with great touch-based web browsing and apps, and the type like BB/Nokia with great texting/email but suck at browsing, apps, and touch. And BB owners are realizing that altho they were told they have a smartphone, it's not like those iPhone-type smartphones (or superphones, as Google calls it).
Here's the killer statistic for RIM: From March 07 to Aug 08, RIM grew BB sales at over 100% year-over-year, with one quarter hitting 129%. Then they had two quarters of 72% and 77% growth yoy with an ending ASP of $369. Since then, it's been 44, 36, 50 (but ASP dropped to 317 from 344 qoq), and this last quarter, 35% yoy with ASP of 311 (2.7m more phones than last year). For comparison, iPhone was up 100% yoy during its last quarter (4.3m more phones than last year so it's not percentage trickery by using a much smaller base) and most expect it to hit 100% growth yoy during this current quarter (3.7m more phones than last year).
Unless RIM can get a great touch-based web browsing phone with useful and fun apps, it's yoy growth is going to slide down to the teens very soon.
There could be a lesson of caution here, esp. given the high profit margins.
I worry a bit that Apple's share price could similarly be in the 'expectations are out of hand' territory ...... perhaps not so out-of-hand to fall to the 100s*, but a 7% drop is definitely not implausible when the iPad numbers come out (I am guessing 300-400K, but I think expectations are much higher).
First, that chart is of web and app use as tracked by AdMob. From it, we know that Android devices are like the iPhone in that there is a disproportionate use of the web and free ad-supported apps, whereas BB and Nokias really are not.
Second, according to Canalys, there were 7.8m Android phones sold worldwide in 2009 (with most in 4Q), and at most 1.8m more in Jan (based on Schmidt's comment that Android is shipping 60k a day). (Gartner estimates only 6.8m Androids in 2009.) There were 8.7m iPhones sold in 4Q09, and 36m+ worldwide over the last 1.5 years (I'll assume super-conservatively that all the 6m iPhone 2Gs are no longer in use). The second chart at that link shows a 50/24 iPhone-to-Android ratio worldwide so we can conclude that Android users use the web and free ad-supported apps more than iPhone users.
Third, according to AT&T, there were 11m iPhone users on its network in Dec 2009. Most, but not all of the Android phones were sold in the US, so let's say 8m of the 9.6m sales are used in the US. So the 44/41 iPhone-to-Android ratio on the chart confirms what we concluded on the worldwide chart.
Fourth, others have posited that web and app usage are very high in the early days of smartphone ownership then drops over time. The AdMob data confirms that idea for the iPhone and WebOS ownership. Also, others have suggested that a larger %age of downloaded Android apps are free and ad-supported. And others say we should be more wary of AdMob data now that it's likely to be acquired by Google. (I doubt they'd screw with the data.)
Fifth, NetApplications data does not support the AdMob data. For Feb 2010, they have iPhone (not including iPod touch) at .50% and Android at .07%, which more closely matches the unit sales data. (iPod touch is at .11%).
So yes, Android is showing a tremendous burst off of a slow start and small base in the US only. iPhone is still way ahead and continuing to grow at 100% year-over-year worldwide.
Let me get this straight, they're bragging about the volume? How much volume will it take RIM to match the money Apple sells, per quarter for their iPhones?
It's going to take RIM to sell 2 or 3 times what Apple sells, per quarter, to match their revenues.
Apple sold 8.7m iPhones in its last quarter at an average selling price (ASP) of $638. I think Apple could've easily sold 10.5m if they settled for RIM's ASP of $311 by selling mostly cheap text-messaging/email "smartphones".
You know why the RIM ASP is so low? Because of 1) BOGO free deals where RIM has to eat some of that cost and 2) RIM is selling more cheaper Curve "smartphones" to consumers and less Bold, Tour, and Storm smartphones. (By the way, more BBs are sold to consumers than enterprise these days.)
And the consequence? Changewave reports that only 38% of RIM owners in their survey are very satisfied with their Blackberry. (76% of iPhone owners and 65% of Android owners say that.) Why? I think people are realizing there are two types of smartphones: the type like iPhone (and Android/maybe Palm) with great touch-based web browsing and apps, and the type like BB/Nokia with great texting/email but suck at browsing, apps, and touch. And BB owners are realizing that altho they were told they have a smartphone, it's not like those iPhone-type smartphones (or superphones, as Google calls it).
Here's the killer statistic for RIM: From March 07 to Aug 08, RIM grew BB sales at over 100% year-over-year, with one quarter hitting 129%. Then they had two quarters of 72% and 77% growth yoy with an ending ASP of $369. Since then, it's been 44, 36, 50 (but ASP dropped to 317 from 344 qoq), and this last quarter, 35% yoy with ASP of 311 (2.7m more phones than last year). For comparison, iPhone was up 100% yoy during its last quarter (4.3m more phones than last year so it's not percentage trickery by using a much smaller base) and most expect it to hit 100% growth yoy during this current quarter (3.7m more phones than last year).
Unless RIM can get a great touch-based web browsing phone with useful and fun apps, it's yoy growth is going to slide down to the teens very soon.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
I thought the staying power of Windows Mobile in the enterprise were all those integrated or custom apps. Given that Windows Mobile Phone System Seven Phone System breaks compatibility with those, I wonder if former Windows Mobile IT admins will be willing to take a look around for whatever.
Not sure what "fresh looking and efficient" means in this context-- I don't think the IT people really care about "fresh looking", and I haven't seen anything that suggest that WinMo 7 is particularly efficient.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
Apple has no iPhone-related subscribers. The carriers have subscribers but they don't share any plan revenue with Apple. (AT&T did share revenue for the original unsubsidized iPhone 2G.) So the subscriber metric is irrelevant when it comes to Apple.
RIM collects a portion of the email/data plan revenue from the carriers. So subscribers is relevant for RIM. In fact, the Services piece of their revenue lets them boost their gross margins. RIM had great margins this last quarter but it's partly because revenue from sales of lower-margin devices fell from 82% to 80%, with high-margin Services making up the difference.
For Apple, another relevant number is the number of iTunes accounts. Most iTunes accounts have a credit card number attached to it. I think Apple said some time ago that it had over 125m iTunes accounts.
Not sure what "fresh looking and efficient" means in this context-- I don't think the IT people really care about "fresh looking", and I haven't seen anything that suggest that WinMo 7 is particularly efficient.
Knowing how IT units function I personally took...
fresh looking and efficient to mean...
Quote:
"wow this is *NEW* and it's from Microsoft and certainly isn't totally crappy to look at! We also have ZERO bad experiences with this particular product! Okay, we should buy LOTS of them and as quickly as possible! We need to get the order in before The Gartner Group white-paper that endlessly praises this miracle on earth gets published!"
Have you noticed that the only way the Blackberry is going is the BB - Bargain bin
I have 3 brand new handsets sitting in my office 2 9800 and a 9700 which were rejected by a customer in favour of the more expensive iPhone.
We have been bundling iPhones with Kerio mailserver (now connect) installs for our customers and they find it a massive improvement over exchange and winmob / BB ES.
Have you noticed that the only way the Blackberry is going is the BB - Bargain bin
I have 3 brand new handsets sitting in my office 2 9800 and a 9700 which were rejected by a customer in favour of the more expensive iPhone.
We have been bundling iPhones with Kerio mailserver (now connect) installs for our customers and they find it a massive improvement over exchange and winmob / BB ES.
Despite the higher initial cost of the iPhone and potential higher-cost replacements are you saving any money over using RiM's services or does Kerio counter that?
Comments
Zowee! you really explained market share in a way i had not even considered.. thanks for explaining this so perfectly..
Could have been 10.5 million iPhones if Apple seized their surprise touchscreen advantage and invaded the business market.
Missed opportunity or deliberate avoidance, guess Apple doesn't deem themselves good enough for the enterprise space. Oh well, back to fruity phones, colorful icons and cheap games instead of serious business tools.
Apple sold 8.7m iPhones in its last quarter at an average selling price (ASP) of $638. I think Apple could've easily sold 10.5m if they settled for RIM's ASP of $311 by selling mostly cheap text-messaging/email "smartphones".
You know why the RIM ASP is so low? Because of 1) BOGO free deals where RIM has to eat some of that cost and 2) RIM is selling more cheaper Curve "smartphones" to consumers and less Bold, Tour, and Storm smartphones. (By the way, more BBs are sold to consumers than enterprise these days.)
And the consequence? Changewave reports that only 38% of RIM owners in their survey are very satisfied with their Blackberry. (76% of iPhone owners and 65% of Android owners say that.) Why? I think people are realizing there are two types of smartphones: the type like iPhone (and Android/maybe Palm) with great touch-based web browsing and apps, and the type like BB/Nokia with great texting/email but suck at browsing, apps, and touch. And BB owners are realizing that altho they were told they have a smartphone, it's not like those iPhone-type smartphones (or superphones, as Google calls it).
Here's the killer statistic for RIM: From March 07 to Aug 08, RIM grew BB sales at over 100% year-over-year, with one quarter hitting 129%. Then they had two quarters of 72% and 77% growth yoy with an ending ASP of $369. Since then, it's been 44, 36, 50 (but ASP dropped to 317 from 344 qoq), and this last quarter, 35% yoy with ASP of 311 (2.7m more phones than last year). For comparison, iPhone was up 100% yoy during its last quarter (4.3m more phones than last year so it's not percentage trickery by using a much smaller base) and most expect it to hit 100% growth yoy during this current quarter (3.7m more phones than last year).
Unless RIM can get a great touch-based web browsing phone with useful and fun apps, it's yoy growth is going to slide down to the teens very soon.
There could be a lesson of caution here, esp. given the high profit margins.
I worry a bit that Apple's share price could similarly be in the 'expectations are out of hand' territory ...... perhaps not so out-of-hand to fall to the 100s*, but a 7% drop is definitely not implausible when the iPad numbers come out (I am guessing 300-400K, but I think expectations are much higher).
*If that happens, I'll probably be buying.....
Rule #1: Never doubt Apple products.
Rule #2: Never doubt Apple products.
Rule #1: Never doubt Apple products.
Rule #2: Never doubt Apple products.
Thanks for the advice, TS.
A little bit of doubt has always served me well. They prevent me from getting too koolaid-y as a shareholder.
I see no research going on with their products, much less research that is supposedly going somewhere.
Yes, people still use iPhones. But the market is dramatically changing. Here is what Prince McLean doesn't want you to know: http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...the-way-up.ars (the first chart).
First, that chart is of web and app use as tracked by AdMob. From it, we know that Android devices are like the iPhone in that there is a disproportionate use of the web and free ad-supported apps, whereas BB and Nokias really are not.
Second, according to Canalys, there were 7.8m Android phones sold worldwide in 2009 (with most in 4Q), and at most 1.8m more in Jan (based on Schmidt's comment that Android is shipping 60k a day). (Gartner estimates only 6.8m Androids in 2009.) There were 8.7m iPhones sold in 4Q09, and 36m+ worldwide over the last 1.5 years (I'll assume super-conservatively that all the 6m iPhone 2Gs are no longer in use). The second chart at that link shows a 50/24 iPhone-to-Android ratio worldwide so we can conclude that Android users use the web and free ad-supported apps more than iPhone users.
Third, according to AT&T, there were 11m iPhone users on its network in Dec 2009. Most, but not all of the Android phones were sold in the US, so let's say 8m of the 9.6m sales are used in the US. So the 44/41 iPhone-to-Android ratio on the chart confirms what we concluded on the worldwide chart.
Fourth, others have posited that web and app usage are very high in the early days of smartphone ownership then drops over time. The AdMob data confirms that idea for the iPhone and WebOS ownership. Also, others have suggested that a larger %age of downloaded Android apps are free and ad-supported. And others say we should be more wary of AdMob data now that it's likely to be acquired by Google. (I doubt they'd screw with the data.)
Fifth, NetApplications data does not support the AdMob data. For Feb 2010, they have iPhone (not including iPod touch) at .50% and Android at .07%, which more closely matches the unit sales data. (iPod touch is at .11%).
So yes, Android is showing a tremendous burst off of a slow start and small base in the US only. iPhone is still way ahead and continuing to grow at 100% year-over-year worldwide.
It's going to take RIM to sell 2 or 3 times what Apple sells, per quarter, to match their revenues.
Brilliant accounting their RIM.
Apple sold 8.7m iPhones in its last quarter at an average selling price (ASP) of $638. I think Apple could've easily sold 10.5m if they settled for RIM's ASP of $311 by selling mostly cheap text-messaging/email "smartphones".
You know why the RIM ASP is so low? Because of 1) BOGO free deals where RIM has to eat some of that cost and 2) RIM is selling more cheaper Curve "smartphones" to consumers and less Bold, Tour, and Storm smartphones. (By the way, more BBs are sold to consumers than enterprise these days.)
And the consequence? Changewave reports that only 38% of RIM owners in their survey are very satisfied with their Blackberry. (76% of iPhone owners and 65% of Android owners say that.) Why? I think people are realizing there are two types of smartphones: the type like iPhone (and Android/maybe Palm) with great touch-based web browsing and apps, and the type like BB/Nokia with great texting/email but suck at browsing, apps, and touch. And BB owners are realizing that altho they were told they have a smartphone, it's not like those iPhone-type smartphones (or superphones, as Google calls it).
Here's the killer statistic for RIM: From March 07 to Aug 08, RIM grew BB sales at over 100% year-over-year, with one quarter hitting 129%. Then they had two quarters of 72% and 77% growth yoy with an ending ASP of $369. Since then, it's been 44, 36, 50 (but ASP dropped to 317 from 344 qoq), and this last quarter, 35% yoy with ASP of 311 (2.7m more phones than last year). For comparison, iPhone was up 100% yoy during its last quarter (4.3m more phones than last year so it's not percentage trickery by using a much smaller base) and most expect it to hit 100% growth yoy during this current quarter (3.7m more phones than last year).
Unless RIM can get a great touch-based web browsing phone with useful and fun apps, it's yoy growth is going to slide down to the teens very soon.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
I thought the staying power of Windows Mobile in the enterprise were all those integrated or custom apps. Given that Windows Mobile Phone System Seven Phone System breaks compatibility with those, I wonder if former Windows Mobile IT admins will be willing to take a look around for whatever.
Not sure what "fresh looking and efficient" means in this context-- I don't think the IT people really care about "fresh looking", and I haven't seen anything that suggest that WinMo 7 is particularly efficient.
What is missing in this report is how many new subscribers is Apple getting from their iPhone sales. I have noticed that info for RIM, but not for iPhone sales numbers.
That being said, I also see tough year for RIM... but I think that their main nemesis will come from new Microsoft mobile platform. IT loves MS products, and given fresh looking and efficient platform with good integration into MS systems (specially BPOS/MS Online Services), with decent mobile Office suite... I can see that having big chunk of RIM's traditional market.
Apple has no iPhone-related subscribers. The carriers have subscribers but they don't share any plan revenue with Apple. (AT&T did share revenue for the original unsubsidized iPhone 2G.) So the subscriber metric is irrelevant when it comes to Apple.
RIM collects a portion of the email/data plan revenue from the carriers. So subscribers is relevant for RIM. In fact, the Services piece of their revenue lets them boost their gross margins. RIM had great margins this last quarter but it's partly because revenue from sales of lower-margin devices fell from 82% to 80%, with high-margin Services making up the difference.
For Apple, another relevant number is the number of iTunes accounts. Most iTunes accounts have a credit card number attached to it. I think Apple said some time ago that it had over 125m iTunes accounts.
Not sure what "fresh looking and efficient" means in this context-- I don't think the IT people really care about "fresh looking", and I haven't seen anything that suggest that WinMo 7 is particularly efficient.
Knowing how IT units function I personally took...
fresh looking and efficient to mean...
"wow this is *NEW* and it's from Microsoft and certainly isn't totally crappy to look at! We also have ZERO bad experiences with this particular product! Okay, we should buy LOTS of them and as quickly as possible! We need to get the order in before The Gartner Group white-paper that endlessly praises this miracle on earth gets published!"
But hey, that's just how I took it....
I have 3 brand new handsets sitting in my office 2 9800 and a 9700 which were rejected by a customer in favour of the more expensive iPhone.
We have been bundling iPhones with Kerio mailserver (now connect) installs for our customers and they find it a massive improvement over exchange and winmob / BB ES.
Have you noticed that the only way the Blackberry is going is the BB - Bargain bin
I have 3 brand new handsets sitting in my office 2 9800 and a 9700 which were rejected by a customer in favour of the more expensive iPhone.
We have been bundling iPhones with Kerio mailserver (now connect) installs for our customers and they find it a massive improvement over exchange and winmob / BB ES.
Despite the higher initial cost of the iPhone and potential higher-cost replacements are you saving any money over using RiM's services or does Kerio counter that?