Last year tablet PC sales were 1.06 million. If this year sale are the same as last year and those estimates are true then Apple could have captured 40% in one day
This is only the WiFi version. Many still waiting for the 3G+WiFi.
Sorry, tablet sales were 10.5M units...UP 1.06M from 2009. So 2009 estimates are around 9.4M units.
Still...7% in a day is still impressive. If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
Your maths is out.
If there are 10.5 million regular tablets, and Apple sells 7.1 million.... Apple will have 7.1 million of a 17.6million market. So 40%. Still huge.
As outlandish as comparing TabletPC sales to iPhone sales, to be honest.
Why is comparing tablet sales with iPad sales outlandish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
Maybe the most fair comparison is actually to the MacBook Air, to which it is a clear winner.
Distinctly different markets - aside from being light & portable.
The MacBook Air is expensive because it tries to be a high powered laptop in a tiny/light package. The iPad is cheap because it does not try to do anywhere near as much - even though there are still many many apps, and it still does what it does quickly.
I'd like to see the iPad expanded into a MacBookAir-like enclosure though (ie: with keyboard).
If there are 10.5 million regular tablets, and Apple sells 7.1 million.... Apple will have 7.1 million of a 17.6million market. So 40%. Still huge.
Gartner's estimates were stated to include the iPad.
"Market researcher Gartner forecasts worldwide tablet PC sales of 10.5 million units in 2010, up from 1.06 million last year. It does not break out iPad figures, but expects the device to account for a vast majority of sales. Another researcher, iSuppli, expects worldwide iPad sales of 7.1 million units in 2010, 14.4 million in 2011 and 20.1 million in 2012."
Ah...so it does. My bad and thanks for point that out.
So was there really only 1M tablets sold last year with Apple's suspected and now real presence in this market tripling the market for the other tablet makers?
So was there really only 1M tablets sold last year with Apple's suspected and now real presence in this market tripling the market for the other tablet makers?
No idea...tablets have always been a pretty tiny niche market. I dunno that I would credit Apple entirely though if the market triples. There were a gazillion new tablets at CES. Some obviously prompted by the iPad but others maybe more due to advances in software and hardware (faster ARM, Android, etc).
My example was not about ex-post facto analysis. If youu did not get it because you are not familiar with the example I gave, or I did not explain it well enough, I have no intention to dwell too much on it or go into protracted debate here.
There is what is called "distortion of the facts" to suit one's perspective. This is very common in many political debates where the protagonists cherry pick what they quote or worse, how they interpret the same facts to suit the perspective that the proponent wanted to impart.
As to ex-post facto analysis, like the interpretation of history (or many social phenomena) has inherent bias -- it is very dependent on the perspective of the historian.
For example. the simple statement:
"Magellan discovered the Philippines" is a perspective, an analysis based from a Western point of view. Asians and Filipinos may have different perspectives for the same statement.
For more controversial example: Israelis. Palestinians, Arabs, Americans, Westerners, etc. would have differing ex-post facto analysis of events in the Middle East. Even subgroups within each of the aforementioned populations would have differing views.
Such tendency, even if not intentional. happens even in less controversial areas.
There is a joke among statisticians:
Tell me your conclusions and I shall provide the statistics.
I have yet to see a stock analyst following Apple that really used valid statistical sampling method to present as fact for their predictions and projections.
A good example is the bogus sampling method cited in this Apple Insider Article. I cite the links I posted in the previous response as to why I never believed the prediction of Munster about Apple selling 45 million iPhones annually by 2009.
If you know any such study, please let me know.
As to predictions and projections, I did not have access to the original "analyses" of Munster, but from what is published I question the validity of a number of his statistical sampling methods, as well as the premises that were the basis of his projections and predictions. As I noted also, quite often, he relied too much on rumors.
It is known that Munster is too bullish for Apple. The trouble with stock market projections is that for the most part the stock market tends to go up most of the time, and then corrects itself quite precipitously every so often. Using your statement, Munster would be with the general direction of the market most of the time, and he would be considered credible.
But, if you were unfortunate enough to follow his prediction in late 2007 and early 2008, and invested in Apple, you would have lost your shirt and everything else, especially if you panicked and sold even as late as mid 2009.
If you weathered the downturn and held the Apple stocks bought in late 2007 and early 2008, you would just be breaking even now, if at all, or made just a decent return.
On the other hand, if you simply followed the bears, you might be better of just investing elsewhere.
CGC
Sure glad you "have no intention to dwell too much"
Sorry, tablet sales were 10.5M units...UP 1.06M from 2009. So 2009 estimates are around 9.4M units.
Still...7% in a day is still impressive. If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
The 10.5 Million units are estimate for 2010. Based on Gartners numbers the 2009 tablet sale were 1.06 Millions, which I expect will go down or stay the same for 2010 non Apple tablets. He estimated 7.1 iPads out of the expected total of 10.5 millions for 2010.
I was just making a reference that if the 700K estimate is accurate and the numbers of tablet PC from last year stayed the same this year then Apple would have gained 40% market share in one day
No idea...tablets have always been a pretty tiny niche market.
The niche market makes it pretty impossible for us to figure out. Hopefully one of these analyst companies pay their employees to research it more thoroughly, and then post it. It would be cool to see a graph of the sales and profit from this niche market
Also, I'd wager that many of the tablets being sold were convertible devices with attached HW keyboards.
Quote:
I dunno that I would credit Apple entirely though if the market triples. There were a gazillion new tablets at CES. Some obviously prompted by the iPad but others maybe more due to advances in software and hardware (faster ARM, Android, etc).
The rumors were pretty rampant that is was pretty much a sure thing that the tablet was coming even if it wasn't known. Ballmer even showed an HP tablet that is/was still vapourware and a mockup. Many of the other tablet makers seemingly have thought they were undercutting Apple just to have to go back to the drawing board knowing they can't compete at the premium market. level.
If they are using Android can't Apple can't given some credit for that when the entire failed history of tablet computing has been using a desktop OS and much of what Android is doing has taken a cue from Apple. Just look at the Android prior to the iPhone OS announcement. It may seem commonplace and natural to use a mobile OS and ARM for a tablet in 2010 but back in 2009 it certainly wasn't the case. I can't recall how many times I was told that Windows 7 would make tablets awesome and that Mac OS X is the best way to make an Apple Tablet, even on this boards. I think Apple can take a lot of credit for potentially bringing this market out of the "niche".
Based on Gartners numbers the 2009 tablet sale were 1.06 Millions, which I expect will go down or stay the same for 2010 non Apple tablets.
I'd say they'd go up. We'll now have other ARM-based tablets with mobile OS UIs redesigned for the size. Apple hacks out a path and others follow. We've seen it with smartphone market exploding since the Apple's entry.
PS: One thing is pretty certain, if Apple sells more iPads in a few days than all the tablets sold last year I can't see Apple NOT stating that at their next quarterly as an addendum even though the sales won't count as part of the quarter they are discussing.
I'd say they'd go up. We'll now have other ARM-based tablets with mobile OS UIs redesigned for the size. Apple hacks out a path and others follow. We've seen it with smartphone market exploding since the Apple's entry.
They probably will but most plan to release their tablets/slates "later this year", which will be too late for any serious growth in 2010. Maybe next year we will see tablet PC numbers go up.
Quote:
PS: One thing is pretty certain, if Apple sells more iPads in a few days than all the tablets sold last year I can't see Apple NOT stating that at their next quarterly as an addendum even though the sales won't count as part of the quarter they are discussing.
Did they announce the date for their next earnings conference call? It should be later this month, right?
Nonetheless, Munster is the "darling" among Apple proponents because he tends to provide predictions and projections that are very positive for Apple product. This seems to be a blindspot among us who not only like but love what Apple creates for us -- we tend to accept rumors or, "predictions and projections" even if their bases are at best flimsy or unreliable, and accept them as "facts" to be the starting point of our own projections and speculations.
Munster (like Gartner, Wu, Huberty, and Enderle) is not considered a star analyst.
I find it annoying that many media sources like quoting these numbskulls as their track records show that they are consistently unable to A.) forecast Apple in a meaningful way, and B.) show understanding of Apple's business vis-a-vis with the rest of the industry.
Andy Hargreaves and Brian Marshall are two tech analysts who are worth listening to, especially about Apple.
Munster is a waste of time for people who are serious about following Apple. That includes AAPL shareholders.
Meanwhile the initial sales figures for the JooJoo tablet have been upgraded from 90 to 117 units sold (minus 28 returns). This sets FusionGarage on track to sell over 500 units in the first year!
Developers are rushing to create new apps for the JooJoo platform, although one has been delayed while waiting for more RAM for his 486/66. The other developer, though, is looking for an early beta release sometime in Q3 '10.
Comments
Last year tablet PC sales were 1.06 million. If this year sale are the same as last year and those estimates are true then Apple could have captured 40% in one day
This is only the WiFi version. Many still waiting for the 3G+WiFi.
Sorry, tablet sales were 10.5M units...UP 1.06M from 2009. So 2009 estimates are around 9.4M units.
Still...7% in a day is still impressive. If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
Your maths is out.
If there are 10.5 million regular tablets, and Apple sells 7.1 million.... Apple will have 7.1 million of a 17.6million market. So 40%. Still huge.
(edit: apparently not... see 2 posts down)
As outlandish as comparing TabletPC sales to iPhone sales, to be honest.
Why is comparing tablet sales with iPad sales outlandish?
Maybe the most fair comparison is actually to the MacBook Air, to which it is a clear winner.
Distinctly different markets - aside from being light & portable.
The MacBook Air is expensive because it tries to be a high powered laptop in a tiny/light package. The iPad is cheap because it does not try to do anywhere near as much - even though there are still many many apps, and it still does what it does quickly.
I'd like to see the iPad expanded into a MacBookAir-like enclosure though (ie: with keyboard).
Your maths is out.
If there are 10.5 million regular tablets, and Apple sells 7.1 million.... Apple will have 7.1 million of a 17.6million market. So 40%. Still huge.
Gartner's estimates were stated to include the iPad.
"Market researcher Gartner forecasts worldwide tablet PC sales of 10.5 million units in 2010, up from 1.06 million last year. It does not break out iPad figures, but expects the device to account for a vast majority of sales. Another researcher, iSuppli, expects worldwide iPad sales of 7.1 million units in 2010, 14.4 million in 2011 and 20.1 million in 2012."
Gartner's estimates were stated to include the iPad.
Apologies.
Thanks.
Gartner's estimates were stated to include the iPad.
"Market researcher Gartner forecasts worldwide tablet PC sales of 10.5 million units in 2010, up from 1.06 million last year.
This seems to contradict your previous comment to NasserAE.
Sorry, tablet sales were 10.5M units...UP 1.06M from 2009. So 2009 estimates are around 9.4M units.
This seems to contradict your previous comment to NasserAE.
Ah...so it does. My bad and thanks for point that out.
Ah...so it does. My bad and thanks for point that out.
So was there really only 1M tablets sold last year with Apple's suspected and now real presence in this market tripling the market for the other tablet makers?
So was there really only 1M tablets sold last year with Apple's suspected and now real presence in this market tripling the market for the other tablet makers?
No idea...tablets have always been a pretty tiny niche market. I dunno that I would credit Apple entirely though if the market triples. There were a gazillion new tablets at CES. Some obviously prompted by the iPad but others maybe more due to advances in software and hardware (faster ARM, Android, etc).
My example was not about ex-post facto analysis. If youu did not get it because you are not familiar with the example I gave, or I did not explain it well enough, I have no intention to dwell too much on it or go into protracted debate here.
There is what is called "distortion of the facts" to suit one's perspective. This is very common in many political debates where the protagonists cherry pick what they quote or worse, how they interpret the same facts to suit the perspective that the proponent wanted to impart.
As to ex-post facto analysis, like the interpretation of history (or many social phenomena) has inherent bias -- it is very dependent on the perspective of the historian.
For example. the simple statement:
"Magellan discovered the Philippines" is a perspective, an analysis based from a Western point of view. Asians and Filipinos may have different perspectives for the same statement.
For more controversial example: Israelis. Palestinians, Arabs, Americans, Westerners, etc. would have differing ex-post facto analysis of events in the Middle East. Even subgroups within each of the aforementioned populations would have differing views.
Such tendency, even if not intentional. happens even in less controversial areas.
There is a joke among statisticians:
Tell me your conclusions and I shall provide the statistics.
I have yet to see a stock analyst following Apple that really used valid statistical sampling method to present as fact for their predictions and projections.
A good example is the bogus sampling method cited in this Apple Insider Article. I cite the links I posted in the previous response as to why I never believed the prediction of Munster about Apple selling 45 million iPhones annually by 2009.
If you know any such study, please let me know.
As to predictions and projections, I did not have access to the original "analyses" of Munster, but from what is published I question the validity of a number of his statistical sampling methods, as well as the premises that were the basis of his projections and predictions. As I noted also, quite often, he relied too much on rumors.
It is known that Munster is too bullish for Apple. The trouble with stock market projections is that for the most part the stock market tends to go up most of the time, and then corrects itself quite precipitously every so often. Using your statement, Munster would be with the general direction of the market most of the time, and he would be considered credible.
But, if you were unfortunate enough to follow his prediction in late 2007 and early 2008, and invested in Apple, you would have lost your shirt and everything else, especially if you panicked and sold even as late as mid 2009.
If you weathered the downturn and held the Apple stocks bought in late 2007 and early 2008, you would just be breaking even now, if at all, or made just a decent return.
On the other hand, if you simply followed the bears, you might be better of just investing elsewhere.
CGC
Sure glad you "have no intention to dwell too much"
Sorry, tablet sales were 10.5M units...UP 1.06M from 2009. So 2009 estimates are around 9.4M units.
Still...7% in a day is still impressive. If Apple does the 7.1M estimated by iSuppli and Gartner's 10.5m units is in the right ballpark then it will capture and astounding 70% of the market in the 1st year. It'll BE the tablet market.
The 10.5 Million units are estimate for 2010. Based on Gartners numbers the 2009 tablet sale were 1.06 Millions, which I expect will go down or stay the same for 2010 non Apple tablets. He estimated 7.1 iPads out of the expected total of 10.5 millions for 2010.
I was just making a reference that if the 700K estimate is accurate and the numbers of tablet PC from last year stayed the same this year then Apple would have gained 40% market share in one day
No idea...tablets have always been a pretty tiny niche market.
The niche market makes it pretty impossible for us to figure out. Hopefully one of these analyst companies pay their employees to research it more thoroughly, and then post it. It would be cool to see a graph of the sales and profit from this niche market
Also, I'd wager that many of the tablets being sold were convertible devices with attached HW keyboards.
I dunno that I would credit Apple entirely though if the market triples. There were a gazillion new tablets at CES. Some obviously prompted by the iPad but others maybe more due to advances in software and hardware (faster ARM, Android, etc).
The rumors were pretty rampant that is was pretty much a sure thing that the tablet was coming even if it wasn't known. Ballmer even showed an HP tablet that is/was still vapourware and a mockup. Many of the other tablet makers seemingly have thought they were undercutting Apple just to have to go back to the drawing board knowing they can't compete at the premium market. level.
If they are using Android can't Apple can't given some credit for that when the entire failed history of tablet computing has been using a desktop OS and much of what Android is doing has taken a cue from Apple. Just look at the Android prior to the iPhone OS announcement. It may seem commonplace and natural to use a mobile OS and ARM for a tablet in 2010 but back in 2009 it certainly wasn't the case. I can't recall how many times I was told that Windows 7 would make tablets awesome and that Mac OS X is the best way to make an Apple Tablet, even on this boards. I think Apple can take a lot of credit for potentially bringing this market out of the "niche".
Based on Gartners numbers the 2009 tablet sale were 1.06 Millions, which I expect will go down or stay the same for 2010 non Apple tablets.
I'd say they'd go up. We'll now have other ARM-based tablets with mobile OS UIs redesigned for the size. Apple hacks out a path and others follow. We've seen it with smartphone market exploding since the Apple's entry.
PS: One thing is pretty certain, if Apple sells more iPads in a few days than all the tablets sold last year I can't see Apple NOT stating that at their next quarterly as an addendum even though the sales won't count as part of the quarter they are discussing.
I'd say they'd go up. We'll now have other ARM-based tablets with mobile OS UIs redesigned for the size. Apple hacks out a path and others follow. We've seen it with smartphone market exploding since the Apple's entry.
They probably will but most plan to release their tablets/slates "later this year", which will be too late for any serious growth in 2010. Maybe next year we will see tablet PC numbers go up.
PS: One thing is pretty certain, if Apple sells more iPads in a few days than all the tablets sold last year I can't see Apple NOT stating that at their next quarterly as an addendum even though the sales won't count as part of the quarter they are discussing.
Did they announce the date for their next earnings conference call? It should be later this month, right?
Did they announce the date for their next earnings conference call? It should be later this month, right?
Tuesday, April 20, 2010 at 2:00 PM PDT is what I'm finding from non-Apple sources.
Nonetheless, Munster is the "darling" among Apple proponents because he tends to provide predictions and projections that are very positive for Apple product. This seems to be a blindspot among us who not only like but love what Apple creates for us -- we tend to accept rumors or, "predictions and projections" even if their bases are at best flimsy or unreliable, and accept them as "facts" to be the starting point of our own projections and speculations.
Munster (like Gartner, Wu, Huberty, and Enderle) is not considered a star analyst.
I find it annoying that many media sources like quoting these numbskulls as their track records show that they are consistently unable to A.) forecast Apple in a meaningful way, and B.) show understanding of Apple's business vis-a-vis with the rest of the industry.
Andy Hargreaves and Brian Marshall are two tech analysts who are worth listening to, especially about Apple.
Munster is a waste of time for people who are serious about following Apple. That includes AAPL shareholders.
Meanwhile the initial sales figures for the JooJoo tablet have been upgraded from 90 to 117 units sold (minus 28 returns). This sets FusionGarage on track to sell over 500 units in the first year!
Developers are rushing to create new apps for the JooJoo platform, although one has been delayed while waiting for more RAM for his 486/66. The other developer, though, is looking for an early beta release sometime in Q3 '10.
Keep dreaming.