Piper lowers 2010 sales forecast to 4.3M, remains 'confident' in iPad

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
After Apple revealed it sold 300,000 iPads on launch day, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revised his calendar year 2010 sales estimates to 4.3 million, though he remains confident in the iPad platform.



After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.



The analyst issued a second note to investors Monday morning, noting that they were wrong on launch day sales. Piper Jaffray analysts believed that online sales would account for 75 percent of all iPad sales, but in reality, online preorders made up about 50 percent of sales, he said, resulting in a significant decrease.



Even though he reduced his expected iPad sales in 2010 from 5.6 million to 4.3 million, the number remains well above his initial prediction of 2.7 million that had been made prior to launch weekend.



"The bottom line is that we missed the launch day sales, but we remain confident in the iPad as an investable theme," Munster wrote.



Apple issued a press release on Monday touting that the iPad sold 300,000 in its first day of sales. The company also revealed that more than a million applications were downloaded from the App Store, and the new iBookstore saw over 250,000 books downloaded on its first day.







Munster noted that he and his team were also overly optimistic for the initial iPhone launch, when they believed Apple would sell 500,000 units. In reality, the handset moved 270,000 at launch. But even though those launch numbers concerned investors, Munster noted that the iPhone is expected to sell 36 million units and represent 39 percent of the company's revenue in 2010.



Earlier Monday, Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey it conducted with 448 iPad buyers. The study found that 74 percent of iPad buyers were Mac users, and 66 percent owned an iPhone. Just 13 percent owned an Amazon Kindle, and more than half of those said they would replace their Kindle with an iPad.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 46
    finetunesfinetunes Posts: 2,065member
    I'll believe the final figures for 2010 when they are announced in 2011.\
  • Reply 2 of 46
    gotapplegotapple Posts: 115member
    ... divide by 2.
  • Reply 3 of 46
    Dear Mr. Munster,



    Wait until the first week of sales after the release of the 3G version and overseas release. The WiFi version is pretty limiting with only one way to connect to the outside world. I tkink more people are waiting for the 3G version than most people predict.
  • Reply 4 of 46
    stevejrstevejr Posts: 11member
    stunts like this aren't good for an analyst's credibility. can you imagine if you were one of his clients and you traded on his forecast this morning?
  • Reply 5 of 46
    Too many different sales forecasts in too little time.



    I agree, the 3G model sales will be even more.
  • Reply 6 of 46
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:

    After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.





    stock manipulators
  • Reply 7 of 46
    bloggerblogbloggerblog Posts: 2,337member
    I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.
  • Reply 8 of 46
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post


    I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.





    Apple made a range of models and is letting the market decide, later on they will shake things out and likely slim down the models.



    The 3G "other shoe" is certainly to drop with about the same figures as the wifi version, some people just have too much money and only want the best.
  • Reply 9 of 46
    stevejrstevejr Posts: 11member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post


    I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.



    It makes sense because of the high price of the 3G hardware and the fact that many people will use it at home on the couch/toilet within wifi range.
  • Reply 10 of 46
    Why do stock people and news outlets like AI and CNN and others pay attention to this guy? He changes his forecast and projections as the wind changes, literally every other day he says something new. He sounds more and more like a moe-ron!!
  • Reply 11 of 46
    stevejrstevejr Posts: 11member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post


    Why do stock people and news outlets like AI and CNN and others pay attention to this guy? He changes his forecast and projections as the wind changes, literally every other day he says something new. He sounds more and more like a moe-ron!!



    for the very reason you just listed. every time there's even a hint of apple news he changes his forecast, giving them something to chat about. it provides the illusion of significance to even the most trivial bits of information. he's also extremely bullish on AAPL, which feeds into AI's pro-Apple bent.





    -
  • Reply 12 of 46
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 895member
    Hi, folks.



    I'm new to this forum, but I've owned Macs since 1984. I also am a holder of Apple stock, long term.



    "After Apple revealed it sold 300,000 iPads on launch day...."



    My guess is this doesn't include the pre-orders for the 3G iPad. As I understand, the 3G and the wifi only were about even in pre-orders. This strongly suggests a like number of 3G iPads will be sold on launch next week, bringing numbers to at least 600,000 total. I'd say Apple is on track to come close to a cool million in iPad sales by the beginning of May.



    "...analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revised his calendar year 2010 sales estimates to 4.3 million, though he remains confident in the iPad platform."



    I believe this to be a very conservative estimate. I'm expecting at least half a million a month minimum until December. That's another 3.5 million leading up to the 2010 Xmas season, when I expect at least 1.5 million will be sold. My 2010 estimate: (1+3.5+1.5=) 6 million MINIMUM.
  • Reply 13 of 46
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,715member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post


    ... This strongly suggests a like number of 3G iPads will be sold on launch next week...



    Did I miss this announcement? Is the 3G really coming out next week?



    (The store still says late April, so maybe not.)
  • Reply 14 of 46
    ifailifail Posts: 463member
    I don't think the 3G model will fare as well in initial sales and I'd say they will move roughly 15-20% (including preorders) of the numbers they posted today due to the initial costs and overlapping capabilities of the iPhone.



    If Apple can move 500k in launch month, and keep a brisk 300k worldwide sales pace they'll be fine, but we will just have to see as time goes on
  • Reply 15 of 46
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post


    I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.



    I've thought that too, but I guess they want to keep prices low...



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stevejr View Post


    It makes sense because of the high price of the 3G hardware and the fact that many people will use it at home on the couch/toilet within wifi range.



    Ideally, I wish it was possible for people to come back to the store, where they'd get the 3G component installed later. $25-50 for Labor, or Free within 30 Days of Purchase. A Genius would pop iPad open and insert the component into a slot... But, I don't know if it's technically that simple...



    Also, unlike iPhone, iPad is not a MUST have device, but more of an AND device, a luxury item. We all need phones, thus it's a must... There was a lot of badmouthing of iPad, plus not everyone want to be the early adopter! Add Easter, when people travel, do family stuff etc. Still 300K is BIG!!! Warm Weather reinforces PORTABILITY Cravings even more!
  • Reply 16 of 46
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 989member
    Those analysts are inflating their estimates and this will only make the iPad look bad no matter how good it does.
  • Reply 17 of 46
    boeyc15boeyc15 Posts: 986member
    Sorry for being off topic- anyone care to venture a estimate as to the number of units that would need to be sold to re-coup Apples investment in the ipad?



    I don't get the impression that it was a large amount of investment dollars since most of the work is scaled from the iphone/ipod touch.

    However, I recall reading that advertisement $$ for ipad was 100mil or so. Could it be been more than development itself?



    Just blowing smoke guess- presume $200 dollars margin on typical ipad. Sell 1 million. $200 million.



    didn't the Palm guys spend about 500mil to get the Pre up and running? I would not suspect I pad was near that much



    All just guessing though, so... you may return to your normal programming.
  • Reply 18 of 46
    That guy is all over the place, saying random different numbers every day is a sure way to lose credibility in an already sketchy profession.
  • Reply 19 of 46
    daharderdaharder Posts: 1,580member
    Somehow I have a sudden urge to located my Mad TV DVD collection... Love when Ms Swan appeared on Lowered Expectations
  • Reply 20 of 46
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Quote:

    After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.



    stock manipulators



    I do not think Munster is a stock manipulator, or I hope not. Having read quite a number of his predictions, either he is lazy, does not fully understand the essence of random sampling or he is just the type to grab the "information/rumor" to support his conclusion or in this case, predictions.



    http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...95#post1605095



    CGC



    "From my own analysis, based on known facts, I predict the iPad will sell more than 300k this year."
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