Gene's problem is that he thinks he can extrapolate sales numbers by standing in a flagship store like Apple's 5th Avenue store and then projecting those out to some kind of national sales figure. I don't know off-hand how accurate he's been with other Apple products with this ridiculous sounding methodology, but I know of a lot of Brits who were coming to the US and planning on being on this particular store over the weekend. Their numbers certainly wouldn't translate out to other stores across the country.
I've thought that too, but I guess they want to keep prices low...
Ideally, I wish it was possible for people to come back to the store, where they'd get the 3G component installed later. $25-50 for Labor, or Free within 30 Days of Purchase. A Genius would pop iPad open and insert the component into a slot... But, I don't know if it's technically that simple...
Also, unlike iPhone, iPad is not a MUST have device, but more of an AND device, a luxury item. We all need phones, thus it's a must... There was a lot of badmouthing of iPad, plus not everyone want to be the early adopter! Add Easter, when people travel, do family stuff etc. Still 300K is BIG!!! Warm Weather reinforces PORTABILITY Cravings even more!
Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.
I do not think Munster is a stock manipulator, or I hope not. Having read quite a number of his predictions, either he is lazy, does not fully understand the essence of random sampling or he is just the type to grab the "information/rumor" to support his conclusion or in this case, predictions.
Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.
Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.
Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.
Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.
Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.
I don't think the 3G model will fare as well in initial sales and I'd say they will move roughly 15-20% (including preorders) of the numbers they posted today due to the initial costs and overlapping capabilities of the iPhone.
If Apple can move 500k in launch month, and keep a brisk 300k worldwide sales pace they'll be fine, but we will just have to see as time goes on
Based on my in-depth studies (ie, asking my friends), I think the 3G version is going to kill. I, for one, have completely ignored the curren version.
I'm more of a road warrior, so having virtually ubiquitous coverage is a must. I really can't see myself tied down at home or searching for wifi hotspots all the time. AT&T's coverage woes notwithstanding, the 3G version is going to slay.
"Did I miss this announcement? Is the 3G really coming out next week? (The store still says late April, so maybe not.)"
I may be a bit confused about the dates. I know a lot of pre-orders for the wifi version were pushed off until the 12th. I had thought that early pre-orders for the 3G were about the same time frame, and the later ones got bumbed out a couple of weeks to late April, but I may be wrong about that.
If true, then my timeline gets shifted out by a couple of weeks. I still think 6 million by the end of the year is very conservative.
You don't need shelter to survive in many climes...no matter how basic you want to define shelter.
I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.
Anyone remember the first iPhone? After the first day "analysts" kept topping each other with estimates of launch sales figures, going as high as 700,000. (It was less than half of that) It must hurt pulling such huge numbers out of one's ass.
Good thing that Apple announced the actual numbers instead of sending the stock on a wild goose chase...
During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.
One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.
Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.
I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.
However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.
I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.
Earlier Monday, Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey it conducted with 448 iPad buyers. The study found that 74 percent of iPad buyers were Mac users, and 66 percent owned an iPhone. Just 13 percent owned an Amazon Kindle, and more than half of those said they would replace their Kindle with an iPad.
The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?
A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.
Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.
This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.
Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.
The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!
During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.
One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.
Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.
I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.
However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.
I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.
I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.
If you're willing to migrate, you can be butt naked and survive just fine without even leaves as cover, no matter how much you want to insist otherwise. You don't even have to migrate if you find the right place. Plenty of naked aboriginal types running around in the tropics over the millennia surviving with nothing more than a loincloth.
This is really a silly debate, though. You wanted to nitpick the original poster for calling a cell phone a necessity compared to an iPad, and the basis of your own nitpick was flawed.
Time to move on, we're both off topic and not adding anything to the conversation at hand.
I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.
Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.
The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?
A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.
Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.
This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.
Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.
The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!
I'm assuming you've yet to see a web optimised newspaper, let alone one for the 'pad. there are already 13 and 15 models, they're in the laptop range. Go buy one of those. re. the general public, my mum can't wait to have one of these things - she's never had a desktop or a laptop, she knows nothing about computers, yet she wants one. So the general public seem to like this device? Every technophobe I know wants one of these things - only anecdotal evidence I know, but then yours is just opinion...
Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.
Easy to make WiFi ubiquitous when your country is smaller (geographically) than many US states.
I disagree that WiFi is the future anyways. It's very limited range, requires too many routers, relies on using other people's networks, and doesn't handle hand-overs well if you're mobile. Something like WiMax or the LTE variants coming down the pike here in the US are a better solution (for the US anyways).
If you're willing to migrate, you can be butt naked and survive just fine without even leaves as cover, no matter how much you want to insist otherwise. You don't even have to migrate if you find the right place. Plenty of naked aboriginal types running around in the tropics over the millennia surviving with nothing more than a loincloth.
This is really a silly debate, though. You wanted to nitpick the original poster for calling a cell phone a necessity compared to an iPad, and the basis of your own nitpick was flawed.
Time to move on, we're both off topic and not adding anything to the conversation at hand.
Of course it's an absurd discussion. I addressed an absurd statement ("We all need phones, thus it's a must... ").
Comments
stunts like this aren't good for an analyst's credibility. can you imagine if you were one of his clients and you traded on his forecast this morning?
If anyone is dumb enough to follow the advice of a full-time AAPL analyst, there's no telling what they're thinking.
stock manipulators
Your name is my reply.
I've thought that too, but I guess they want to keep prices low...
Ideally, I wish it was possible for people to come back to the store, where they'd get the 3G component installed later. $25-50 for Labor, or Free within 30 Days of Purchase. A Genius would pop iPad open and insert the component into a slot... But, I don't know if it's technically that simple...
Also, unlike iPhone, iPad is not a MUST have device, but more of an AND device, a luxury item. We all need phones, thus it's a must... There was a lot of badmouthing of iPad, plus not everyone want to be the early adopter! Add Easter, when people travel, do family stuff etc. Still 300K is BIG!!! Warm Weather reinforces PORTABILITY Cravings even more
Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.
I do not think Munster is a stock manipulator, or I hope not. Having read quite a number of his predictions, either he is lazy, does not fully understand the essence of random sampling or he is just the type to grab the "information/rumor" to support his conclusion or in this case, predictions.
Maybe "Fake Gene" has the answers... or not.
Let's ask the real Eugene... er, Gene.
Even better.
Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.
Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.
Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.
Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.
Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.
I'm talking about basic cover, not a house.
I don't think the 3G model will fare as well in initial sales and I'd say they will move roughly 15-20% (including preorders) of the numbers they posted today due to the initial costs and overlapping capabilities of the iPhone.
If Apple can move 500k in launch month, and keep a brisk 300k worldwide sales pace they'll be fine, but we will just have to see as time goes on
Based on my in-depth studies (ie, asking my friends), I think the 3G version is going to kill. I, for one, have completely ignored the curren version.
I'm more of a road warrior, so having virtually ubiquitous coverage is a must. I really can't see myself tied down at home or searching for wifi hotspots all the time. AT&T's coverage woes notwithstanding, the 3G version is going to slay.
I'm talking about basic cover, not a house.
So am I.
You don't need shelter to survive in many climes...no matter how basic you want to define shelter.
I may be a bit confused about the dates. I know a lot of pre-orders for the wifi version were pushed off until the 12th. I had thought that early pre-orders for the 3G were about the same time frame, and the later ones got bumbed out a couple of weeks to late April, but I may be wrong about that.
If true, then my timeline gets shifted out by a couple of weeks. I still think 6 million by the end of the year is very conservative.
So am I.
You don't need shelter to survive in many climes...no matter how basic you want to define shelter.
I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.
Anyone remember the first iPhone? After the first day "analysts" kept topping each other with estimates of launch sales figures, going as high as 700,000. (It was less than half of that) It must hurt pulling such huge numbers out of one's ass.
Good thing that Apple announced the actual numbers instead of sending the stock on a wild goose chase...
Maybe "Fake Gene" has the answers... or not.
Let's ask the real Eugene... er, Gene.
Even better.
During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.
One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.
Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.
I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.
However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.
I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.
CGC
Earlier Monday, Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey it conducted with 448 iPad buyers. The study found that 74 percent of iPad buyers were Mac users, and 66 percent owned an iPhone. Just 13 percent owned an Amazon Kindle, and more than half of those said they would replace their Kindle with an iPad.
The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?
A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.
Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.
This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.
Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.
The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!
During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.
One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.
Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.
I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.
However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.
I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.
CGC
Hey look, it's our old friend Artie MacStrawman.
I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.
If you're willing to migrate, you can be butt naked and survive just fine without even leaves as cover, no matter how much you want to insist otherwise. You don't even have to migrate if you find the right place. Plenty of naked aboriginal types running around in the tropics over the millennia surviving with nothing more than a loincloth.
This is really a silly debate, though. You wanted to nitpick the original poster for calling a cell phone a necessity compared to an iPad, and the basis of your own nitpick was flawed.
Time to move on, we're both off topic and not adding anything to the conversation at hand.
I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.
Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.
The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?
A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.
Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.
This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.
Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.
The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!
I'm assuming you've yet to see a web optimised newspaper, let alone one for the 'pad. there are already 13 and 15 models, they're in the laptop range. Go buy one of those. re. the general public, my mum can't wait to have one of these things - she's never had a desktop or a laptop, she knows nothing about computers, yet she wants one. So the general public seem to like this device? Every technophobe I know wants one of these things - only anecdotal evidence I know, but then yours is just opinion...
Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.
Easy to make WiFi ubiquitous when your country is smaller (geographically) than many US states.
I disagree that WiFi is the future anyways. It's very limited range, requires too many routers, relies on using other people's networks, and doesn't handle hand-overs well if you're mobile. Something like WiMax or the LTE variants coming down the pike here in the US are a better solution (for the US anyways).
If you're willing to migrate, you can be butt naked and survive just fine without even leaves as cover, no matter how much you want to insist otherwise. You don't even have to migrate if you find the right place. Plenty of naked aboriginal types running around in the tropics over the millennia surviving with nothing more than a loincloth.
This is really a silly debate, though. You wanted to nitpick the original poster for calling a cell phone a necessity compared to an iPad, and the basis of your own nitpick was flawed.
Time to move on, we're both off topic and not adding anything to the conversation at hand.
Of course it's an absurd discussion. I addressed an absurd statement ("We all need phones, thus it's a must... ").
Let's put a fork in this one.