It's nice that Apple can sell a bunch of phones internationally. It takes some pressure off of them to get a deal with Verizon. But at some point, they will have to get the iPhone onto Verizon's network. They're doing Google and RIM a huge favor by staying off of Verizon. They can't just concede a market that big forever.
How exactly does Apple help RIM and Google by not partnering with Verizon? Verizon has a network that is not compatible with iPhone. it sounds to me like Verizon is the one that is hurting Verizon, not Apple. Apple is not going to make a foolish move by creating a secondary piece of hardware for use on a CDMA network in the USA. for one, it would fragment the SKUs, and confuse end users. it would violate a very profitable agreement with ATT, which would be silly to do. also, a CDMA iphone could not do voice and data at the same time, like ATT can. so the iphone would be going backwards in the multitasking arena, not forwards (like it will with iphone OS 4). and there is no guarantee that VZW would be able to handle the absolute flood of data straining their network (which is also quite a bit slower than ATT). it would be like ATT in 2007-8, overloaded network, lots of problems, lots of frustrated customers.
wait until 2014, when VZW has a robust, built-out LTE 4G network, then maybe, just MAYBE, Apple will release iPhone to Verizon.
And you are forgetting a key thing, a very big thing: people on Verizon can buy an iPhone without the GSM radio (its called an iPod Touch) and use it on VZW wifi hotspots, third party hotspots, home wifi or thru wireless modems and portable hotspots.
If Apple does not diversify to different carriers with the 4G, I think it's pretty much over for the iPhone in terms of growth from switchers. That cow will have been milked dry. 3 years is enough. If they don't even go to the other GSM carrier, then really...what else is left to say at this point. This business model is not consumer friendly by a mile. And they will find themselves with less switchers to the iPhone once Apple finally decides to open the phone to other carriers the more people have invested themselves monetarily in applications for other platforms. Neither Android nor BB are sticking to one carrier, they are expanding aggressively to ALL, and in 3 out of 4, without having to compete with the big juggernaut. Google couldn't be happier in the long term if this Apple-AT&T racket continues.
Apple must be worried. they only made THREE BILLION DOLLARS PROFIT (not revenue, PROFIT), in only THREE MONTHS. one billion dollars per month, in a post-holiday recession-slowed economy. and this was all before they even started selling the iPad, a huge hit that will sell well over 5 million units in its first 8 months.
ATT is also shaking in their boots. ATT's first quarter this year was very good (the post holiday quarter is typically a very slow quarter) and it was just a tiny bit behind Q4 last year (the holiday quarter, normally the best quarter). ATT is still adding subs, with lowest churn ever, with wireline and Uverse making strong gains as well.
Also, the Apple partnership still strong, with iPad and iPhone. and ATT has the lowest dropped call percentage (verified by third party testing), fastest data network (verified by third party testing), and still outpacing VZW in profits and subscriber adds.
outlook is very very bleak for the future....right? Right? *crickets*
Those projections are way off base, as least compared to more mainstream media outlets. Verizon is likely to report only 700,000 net adds. That compares poorly to AT&T's 1.9 new postpaid subscribers in the same quarter.
Why would someone get the 3G version, and not use the data plan as offered: i.e., use as/when needed?
I'm getting the 3G version and plan to use it when needed (i.e. vacation months like Dec, July, August).
I wonder if I can turn on 3G just to sign up, or if I have to use wifi to sign up first before using the 3G. If the former, then I can see myself possibly turning it on in an emergency (when there is no wifi).
Did I go to the wrong school? 1/3 of 2.7M is .9M, and half of 2.7M is 1.35M - neither of which is close to the 1/2 or 1/3 in the above statements. 1.9M is roughly 2/3 of 2.7M, so this story should have read "...more than two thirds of those customers new to AT&T." And THAT's a big deal!
AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users.
1/3 or about 900K switched to AT&T from another carrier.
2/3 upgraded from a previous AT&T phone (could've been an older iPhone).
AT&T signed up 512K net postpaid switchers from another carrier.
So if all 512K net switchers were iPhone users, then at least 388K people switched away from AT&T to another carrier. Since AT&T said postpaid churn was 1.07% and there were about 65M postpaid subscribers, we can estimate 650K switched away. If so, then about 260K other people switched to AT&T but didn't become iPhone users.
AT&T added 3.3M users of 3G integrated devices, of which iPhone is one.
Thus, AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users and 600K of other 3G integrated devices (like BBs and Moto Backflip). This gives us a relative idea of the difference between being 1st and 2nd at AT&T. According to web reports, Backflip was the 3rd most popular AT&T phone in March, so maybe 200K Backflips at most.
AT&T added 1.9M net subscribers. This number includes the 512K postpaid switchers, but also includes prepaid, reseller, and connected devices (i.e., Kindles and other e-readers, alarm monitoring, iPads (soon), etc).
Verizon announced results today. They signed up only 423K postpaid switchers. I think the Droid craze is over. More significant, for the first time ever (or at least as far back as 2006, that's where my data ends), their churn was as high as AT&T's at 1.07%.
It likely is the economy but it could also be, like cable/sat/FIOS, the all or nothing approach and forced bundling with no price sweet spots is simply making more customers choose nothing with regard to post-paid.
My whole family has switched over to pre-paid. I'm on T-mobile for $65 a month for 1000 minutes and unlimited text and data. My wife gets unlimited text/talk/20 megs data for her Env2 for $40 a month through Page Plus Cellular and both my boys have $10 put on their phones every four months.
Our family bill for a smartphone, an unlimited talk/text feature phone and two Razrs is now $110 a month down from $160 (with 15% discount) on Verizon post-paid.
I'm still very tempted to even give up my iPhone and go PagePlus myself on my old LG Dare. They have a 1200/1200/50 MB talk/text/data plan that sounds almost precisely how I use my phone and it is only $30 a month.
That would move our cell plan down to $75 a month. On Verizon, the mandatory data was going to knock another $10 a month onto our bill to drive it to $170 a month for four phones. The last time I went through one of these "Do you own things or do they own you" phases, we got rid of paid television and have now been very happy with only an antenna for almost a year now. I suspect that I'll end up leaning that way with phones as well.
If Apple does not diversify to different carriers with the 4G, I think it's pretty much over for the iPhone in terms of growth from switchers. That cow will have been milked dry. 3 years is enough.
I do happen to think that Apple will add another carrier later this year, as AT&T is getting saturated with iPhones. AT&T didn't say but I'd estimate about 17M out of 65M, or around 26% of its postpaid subscribers are iPhone users.
Regardless, here's the AT&T iPhone subscribers statistics:
3Q08: 2.4M, 40% of these are switchers (iPhone 3G shipped on 7/11)
4Q08: 1.9M, 40%
1Q09: 1.6M, 40%
2Q09: 2.4M, 33% (iPhone 3Gs shipped on 6/19)
3Q09: 3.2M, 40%
4Q09: 3.1M, 34%
1Q10: 2.7M, 34%
2Q10: TBD (next iPhone likely to launch in June).
The numbers actually don't look so bad, though the switcher percentage is down (but steady).
Perhaps you also missed, apparently in plain sight, the pretty large drop in SWITCHERS to AT&T to get the iPhone. Perhaps you also missed the part where I said switchers to the iPhone from other carriers was decreasing, and as a consequence iPhone growth in the US will stunt, if the majority of people getting new iPhones are existing AT&T customers.
1st quarter is always lowest for new subscribers. And also for switchers. On all US carriers.
As I said in earlier post, Verizon added only 423K postpaid, less than AT&T. Sprint supposedly is doing better at retaining subscribers, though they haven't yet announced.
I do happen to think that Apple will add another carrier later this year, as AT&T is getting saturated with iPhones. AT&T didn't say but I'd estimate about 17M out of 65M, or around 26% of its postpaid subscribers are iPhone users.
Regardless, here's the AT&T iPhone subscribers statistics:
3Q08: 2.4M, 40% of these are switchers (iPhone 3G shipped on 7/11)
4Q08: 1.9M, 40%
1Q09: 1.6M, 40%
2Q09: 2.4M, 33% (iPhone 3Gs shipped on 6/19)
3Q09: 3.2M, 40%
4Q09: 3.1M, 34%
1Q10: 2.7M, 34%
2Q10: TBD (next iPhone likely to launch in June).
The numbers actually don't look so bad, though the switcher percentage is down (but steady).
Looking at those numbers I see no pressing reason for Apple to add another carrier to the US.
Verizon will start rolling out LTE ("4G") this year. AT&T will start next year. For once, they'll both be on the same technology. My guess is that Apple will include LTE in addition to GSM as soon as possible and use that as the way to get to Verizon instead of shoehorning CDMA into the iPhone this year. Apple doesn't seem to be hurting by sticking with GSM right now, and the LTE path is a much cleaner technological one.
Even though they'd both be on LTE, Apple will still need to provide for CDMA, as Verizon's LTE rollout will take several years to reach "nationwide" coverage.
If Apple never wants to do CDMA at all, they'd be waiting til 2013 at the earliest (more likely 2014) to get on Verizon.
1/3 or about 900K switched to AT&T from another carrier.
2/3 upgraded from a previous AT&T phone (could've been an older iPhone).
AT&T signed up 512K net postpaid switchers from another carrier.
So if all 512K net switchers were iPhone users, then at least 388K people switched away from AT&T to another carrier. Since AT&T said postpaid churn was 1.07% and there were about 65M postpaid subscribers, we can estimate 650K switched away. If so, then about 260K other people switched to AT&T but didn't become iPhone users.
AT&T added 3.3M users of 3G integrated devices, of which iPhone is one.
Thus, AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users and 600K of other 3G integrated devices (like BBs and Moto Backflip). This gives us a relative idea of the difference between being 1st and 2nd at AT&T. According to web reports, Backflip was the 3rd most popular AT&T phone in March, so maybe 200K Backflips at most.
AT&T added 1.9M net subscribers. This number includes the 512K postpaid switchers, but also includes prepaid, reseller, and connected devices (i.e., Kindles and other e-readers, alarm monitoring, iPads (soon), etc).
Verizon announced results today. They signed up only 423K postpaid switchers. I think the Droid craze is over. More significant, for the first time ever (or at least as far back as 2006, that's where my data ends), their churn was as high as AT&T's at 1.07%.
Now, where's samab to defend Verizon's strategy?
This.
Just a few weeks ago there was a lot of crowing about how iPhone sales had "stalled out" or "stagnated", based entirely on modest softening of the North American market. Yet, here we are, with iPhone sales continuing their rapid expansion and Android's primary vendor, Verizon, falling behind AT&T in post paid adds.
I have no doubt the Android market will continue to grow, if only because there appears to be a new handset coming onto the market about every fifteen minutes. But the notion that Android is a juggernaut that is quickly overtaking the iPhone, which is "stalled", is and was a Google fan boy fantasy.
I wonder if I can turn on 3G just to sign up, or if I have to use wifi to sign up first before using the 3G. If the former, then I can see myself possibly turning it on in an emergency (when there is no wifi).
Interesting question. Perhaps over a phone call or via email as well? We'll find out in a week!
Comments
It's nice that Apple can sell a bunch of phones internationally. It takes some pressure off of them to get a deal with Verizon. But at some point, they will have to get the iPhone onto Verizon's network. They're doing Google and RIM a huge favor by staying off of Verizon. They can't just concede a market that big forever.
How exactly does Apple help RIM and Google by not partnering with Verizon? Verizon has a network that is not compatible with iPhone. it sounds to me like Verizon is the one that is hurting Verizon, not Apple. Apple is not going to make a foolish move by creating a secondary piece of hardware for use on a CDMA network in the USA. for one, it would fragment the SKUs, and confuse end users. it would violate a very profitable agreement with ATT, which would be silly to do. also, a CDMA iphone could not do voice and data at the same time, like ATT can. so the iphone would be going backwards in the multitasking arena, not forwards (like it will with iphone OS 4). and there is no guarantee that VZW would be able to handle the absolute flood of data straining their network (which is also quite a bit slower than ATT). it would be like ATT in 2007-8, overloaded network, lots of problems, lots of frustrated customers.
wait until 2014, when VZW has a robust, built-out LTE 4G network, then maybe, just MAYBE, Apple will release iPhone to Verizon.
And you are forgetting a key thing, a very big thing: people on Verizon can buy an iPhone without the GSM radio (its called an iPod Touch) and use it on VZW wifi hotspots, third party hotspots, home wifi or thru wireless modems and portable hotspots.
Yawn.
If Apple does not diversify to different carriers with the 4G, I think it's pretty much over for the iPhone in terms of growth from switchers. That cow will have been milked dry. 3 years is enough. If they don't even go to the other GSM carrier, then really...what else is left to say at this point. This business model is not consumer friendly by a mile. And they will find themselves with less switchers to the iPhone once Apple finally decides to open the phone to other carriers the more people have invested themselves monetarily in applications for other platforms. Neither Android nor BB are sticking to one carrier, they are expanding aggressively to ALL, and in 3 out of 4, without having to compete with the big juggernaut. Google couldn't be happier in the long term if this Apple-AT&T racket continues.
Apple must be worried. they only made THREE BILLION DOLLARS PROFIT (not revenue, PROFIT), in only THREE MONTHS. one billion dollars per month, in a post-holiday recession-slowed economy. and this was all before they even started selling the iPad, a huge hit that will sell well over 5 million units in its first 8 months.
ATT is also shaking in their boots. ATT's first quarter this year was very good (the post holiday quarter is typically a very slow quarter) and it was just a tiny bit behind Q4 last year (the holiday quarter, normally the best quarter). ATT is still adding subs, with lowest churn ever, with wireline and Uverse making strong gains as well.
Also, the Apple partnership still strong, with iPad and iPhone. and ATT has the lowest dropped call percentage (verified by third party testing), fastest data network (verified by third party testing), and still outpacing VZW in profits and subscriber adds.
outlook is very very bleak for the future....right? Right? *crickets*
Their both down. It's probably the economy. And they are expected to be reporting about the same amount of adds:
http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/...-q1/2010-04-19
So much for "the network" being paramount
Those projections are way off base, as least compared to more mainstream media outlets. Verizon is likely to report only 700,000 net adds. That compares poorly to AT&T's 1.9 new postpaid subscribers in the same quarter.
Perhaps you missed the earnings call where Apple announced their biggest iPhone quarter?
With an iPhone that is almost a year old?
Against an onslaught of Android phones?
Really? AT&T just had another monster quarter. If they beat verizon again, that's over a year of outgrowing them in net adds. Some juggernaut
Obviously all that grown is international. It appears to me that US growth is stagnating.
Why would someone get the 3G version, and not use the data plan as offered: i.e., use as/when needed?
I'm getting the 3G version and plan to use it when needed (i.e. vacation months like Dec, July, August).
I wonder if I can turn on 3G just to sign up, or if I have to use wifi to sign up first before using the 3G. If the former, then I can see myself possibly turning it on in an emergency (when there is no wifi).
Did I go to the wrong school? 1/3 of 2.7M is .9M, and half of 2.7M is 1.35M - neither of which is close to the 1/2 or 1/3 in the above statements. 1.9M is roughly 2/3 of 2.7M, so this story should have read "...more than two thirds of those customers new to AT&T." And THAT's a big deal!
AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users.
1/3 or about 900K switched to AT&T from another carrier.
2/3 upgraded from a previous AT&T phone (could've been an older iPhone).
AT&T signed up 512K net postpaid switchers from another carrier.
So if all 512K net switchers were iPhone users, then at least 388K people switched away from AT&T to another carrier. Since AT&T said postpaid churn was 1.07% and there were about 65M postpaid subscribers, we can estimate 650K switched away. If so, then about 260K other people switched to AT&T but didn't become iPhone users.
AT&T added 3.3M users of 3G integrated devices, of which iPhone is one.
Thus, AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users and 600K of other 3G integrated devices (like BBs and Moto Backflip). This gives us a relative idea of the difference between being 1st and 2nd at AT&T. According to web reports, Backflip was the 3rd most popular AT&T phone in March, so maybe 200K Backflips at most.
AT&T added 1.9M net subscribers. This number includes the 512K postpaid switchers, but also includes prepaid, reseller, and connected devices (i.e., Kindles and other e-readers, alarm monitoring, iPads (soon), etc).
Verizon announced results today. They signed up only 423K postpaid switchers. I think the Droid craze is over. More significant, for the first time ever (or at least as far back as 2006, that's where my data ends), their churn was as high as AT&T's at 1.07%.
Now, where's samab to defend Verizon's strategy?
Their both down. It's probably the economy. And they are expected to be reporting about the same amount of adds:
http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/...-q1/2010-04-19
So much for "the network" being paramount
It likely is the economy but it could also be, like cable/sat/FIOS, the all or nothing approach and forced bundling with no price sweet spots is simply making more customers choose nothing with regard to post-paid.
My whole family has switched over to pre-paid. I'm on T-mobile for $65 a month for 1000 minutes and unlimited text and data. My wife gets unlimited text/talk/20 megs data for her Env2 for $40 a month through Page Plus Cellular and both my boys have $10 put on their phones every four months.
Our family bill for a smartphone, an unlimited talk/text feature phone and two Razrs is now $110 a month down from $160 (with 15% discount) on Verizon post-paid.
I'm still very tempted to even give up my iPhone and go PagePlus myself on my old LG Dare. They have a 1200/1200/50 MB talk/text/data plan that sounds almost precisely how I use my phone and it is only $30 a month.
That would move our cell plan down to $75 a month. On Verizon, the mandatory data was going to knock another $10 a month onto our bill to drive it to $170 a month for four phones. The last time I went through one of these "Do you own things or do they own you" phases, we got rid of paid television and have now been very happy with only an antenna for almost a year now. I suspect that I'll end up leaning that way with phones as well.
Yawn.
If Apple does not diversify to different carriers with the 4G, I think it's pretty much over for the iPhone in terms of growth from switchers. That cow will have been milked dry. 3 years is enough.
I do happen to think that Apple will add another carrier later this year, as AT&T is getting saturated with iPhones. AT&T didn't say but I'd estimate about 17M out of 65M, or around 26% of its postpaid subscribers are iPhone users.
Regardless, here's the AT&T iPhone subscribers statistics:
3Q08: 2.4M, 40% of these are switchers (iPhone 3G shipped on 7/11)
4Q08: 1.9M, 40%
1Q09: 1.6M, 40%
2Q09: 2.4M, 33% (iPhone 3Gs shipped on 6/19)
3Q09: 3.2M, 40%
4Q09: 3.1M, 34%
1Q10: 2.7M, 34%
2Q10: TBD (next iPhone likely to launch in June).
The numbers actually don't look so bad, though the switcher percentage is down (but steady).
Perhaps you also missed, apparently in plain sight, the pretty large drop in SWITCHERS to AT&T to get the iPhone. Perhaps you also missed the part where I said switchers to the iPhone from other carriers was decreasing, and as a consequence iPhone growth in the US will stunt, if the majority of people getting new iPhones are existing AT&T customers.
1st quarter is always lowest for new subscribers. And also for switchers. On all US carriers.
As I said in earlier post, Verizon added only 423K postpaid, less than AT&T. Sprint supposedly is doing better at retaining subscribers, though they haven't yet announced.
I do happen to think that Apple will add another carrier later this year, as AT&T is getting saturated with iPhones. AT&T didn't say but I'd estimate about 17M out of 65M, or around 26% of its postpaid subscribers are iPhone users.
Regardless, here's the AT&T iPhone subscribers statistics:
3Q08: 2.4M, 40% of these are switchers (iPhone 3G shipped on 7/11)
4Q08: 1.9M, 40%
1Q09: 1.6M, 40%
2Q09: 2.4M, 33% (iPhone 3Gs shipped on 6/19)
3Q09: 3.2M, 40%
4Q09: 3.1M, 34%
1Q10: 2.7M, 34%
2Q10: TBD (next iPhone likely to launch in June).
The numbers actually don't look so bad, though the switcher percentage is down (but steady).
Looking at those numbers I see no pressing reason for Apple to add another carrier to the US.
Verizon will start rolling out LTE ("4G") this year. AT&T will start next year. For once, they'll both be on the same technology. My guess is that Apple will include LTE in addition to GSM as soon as possible and use that as the way to get to Verizon instead of shoehorning CDMA into the iPhone this year. Apple doesn't seem to be hurting by sticking with GSM right now, and the LTE path is a much cleaner technological one.
Even though they'd both be on LTE, Apple will still need to provide for CDMA, as Verizon's LTE rollout will take several years to reach "nationwide" coverage.
If Apple never wants to do CDMA at all, they'd be waiting til 2013 at the earliest (more likely 2014) to get on Verizon.
Why would someone get the 3G version, and not use the data plan as offered: i.e., use as/when needed?
Its $30 dollars a month what's the big deal???
AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users.
1/3 or about 900K switched to AT&T from another carrier.
2/3 upgraded from a previous AT&T phone (could've been an older iPhone).
AT&T signed up 512K net postpaid switchers from another carrier.
So if all 512K net switchers were iPhone users, then at least 388K people switched away from AT&T to another carrier. Since AT&T said postpaid churn was 1.07% and there were about 65M postpaid subscribers, we can estimate 650K switched away. If so, then about 260K other people switched to AT&T but didn't become iPhone users.
AT&T added 3.3M users of 3G integrated devices, of which iPhone is one.
Thus, AT&T added 2.7M iPhone users and 600K of other 3G integrated devices (like BBs and Moto Backflip). This gives us a relative idea of the difference between being 1st and 2nd at AT&T. According to web reports, Backflip was the 3rd most popular AT&T phone in March, so maybe 200K Backflips at most.
AT&T added 1.9M net subscribers. This number includes the 512K postpaid switchers, but also includes prepaid, reseller, and connected devices (i.e., Kindles and other e-readers, alarm monitoring, iPads (soon), etc).
Verizon announced results today. They signed up only 423K postpaid switchers. I think the Droid craze is over. More significant, for the first time ever (or at least as far back as 2006, that's where my data ends), their churn was as high as AT&T's at 1.07%.
Now, where's samab to defend Verizon's strategy?
This.
Just a few weeks ago there was a lot of crowing about how iPhone sales had "stalled out" or "stagnated", based entirely on modest softening of the North American market. Yet, here we are, with iPhone sales continuing their rapid expansion and Android's primary vendor, Verizon, falling behind AT&T in post paid adds.
I have no doubt the Android market will continue to grow, if only because there appears to be a new handset coming onto the market about every fifteen minutes. But the notion that Android is a juggernaut that is quickly overtaking the iPhone, which is "stalled", is and was a Google fan boy fantasy.
I wonder if I can turn on 3G just to sign up, or if I have to use wifi to sign up first before using the 3G. If the former, then I can see myself possibly turning it on in an emergency (when there is no wifi).
Interesting question. Perhaps over a phone call or via email as well? We'll find out in a week!
Its $30 dollars a month what's the big deal???
So, you're agreeing with me?