Apple's iPad 3G estimated to have sold 300K on launch weekend

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  • Reply 41 of 94
    charelcharel Posts: 93member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Orlando View Post


    Outside of the US people say "the 10th of May".



    Saying "May 10th" is a very American way of speaking.



    We say 10 May 2010 so we write 10-05-2010. It is sometimes confusing when the dates can mean both and one has to check whether the source is US or the rest of the world. Like the infamous 9/11
  • Reply 42 of 94
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post


    So you picked it up about 12 years ago, like I did, and got 2 splits out of it. As of last month, AAPL made me a millionaire from a $17,000 investment. Not a bad return from a great company.





    If I knew then what I know now...



    Naaa, kidding. No greed here, just a solid, long term investment.



    Apple's Doomed!



    btw....keep buying those iPads!



    Nope. I had it in the '90's, before it split at, I think it was $150. Then I sold most of my holdings of stocks in 1999.



    I bought it back in mid 2004. I've bought more at various times since.
  • Reply 43 of 94
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Yes, The Apple case is great. In addition to the normal stuff, it works very well for one-handed use and cushions any drops on the edges or corners... comes in any color, as long as it is black



    .



    It looks good. Better than I thought it would.



    Two minor complaints though. The first is that it fits so tightly, that it's hard to remove it. Maybe over time, it will loosen up a bit. They really don't need that flap to hold it in.



    The second it that I think the viewing stand position, as opposed to the typing position, is too vertical. I think the screen should lean a few degrees back.



    Other than that, it's the most useful case I've seen so far, and I've looked at a lot. At some point, a better one will come out.



    I'd like something with a strap that's small. All the iPad strap cases so far are bulky. Manufacturers seem to think we all want to carry a lot of other stuff inside when that's not going to be the situation for many of us.
  • Reply 44 of 94
    robogoborobogobo Posts: 378member
    Quote:

    Munster said he believes the sellouts are due to stronger-than-expected demand and lower-than-intended supply.



    Now THAT"S analysis.
  • Reply 45 of 94
    robogoborobogobo Posts: 378member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Charel View Post


    We say 10 May 2010 so we write 10-05-2010. It is sometimes confusing when the dates can mean both and one has to check whether the source is US or the rest of the world. Like the infamous 9/11



    I'm American and I live in Europe, so I got mixed up all the time when I first came here. Now I've taken to writing the month out ("May") or using the international/computer format in most cases (yyyymmdd).
  • Reply 46 of 94
    igrumbleigrumble Posts: 32member
    Quote:

    Checks with 50 Apple retail stores have led one prominent analyst to predict Apple sold about 300,000 iPad 3G units, including preorders, over the device's first weekend of sales.

    ...

    The analyst said he now believes Apple has sold more than 1 million iPads



    Made up numbers. To recap, Apple claimed that they'd sold 300k on the first day, 450k in the first five days (including a whole weekend), and over 500k in the first week, and I'm pretty sure that's it. That's based on their own definition of a sale, which basically will mean that a unit left their inventory, ie. some went to resellers and it's very difficult to tell what proportion of those were sold to consumers in that period or how much unsatisfied demand there was. So the rate went down from 300k/day to 38k/day to 25k/day in the course of a week. The absolute maximum you could reasonably expect is that the 25k/day rate has not diminished further over the remaining 21 days to the 3G launch day, which would be an extra 525k, and without any further data points you can't really do more than say that probably fewer than a million iPads were sold before the 3G launch.



    My personal irrational guess would be that a total of 700k iPads were sold before the 3G launch. I admit that's within the analyst's wishy-washy range, but that's not any kind of validation. We're both making up numbers without evidence to back it up.



    On the iPad launch weekend, sales estimates were all over the place, based as they were, seemingly, on whether analysts could see iPads available in their local Apple stores. Last time Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray guessed 600k-700k on launch day, which was twice the actual 300k figure. Surely he's learned to improve his guesswork since that embarrassing mistake - you know, more runes, a clearer crystal ball, cleaning his tarot cards to make sure they don't get stuck together - but, frankly, it's likely that his guess is just as flawed this time, and probably still too high. I'm not offering better numbers, just suggesting that people keep in mind which orifice he pulled those out of.



    Quote:

    The launch of the 3G-compatible iPad also helped sales of Wi-Fi-only iPads, with those models sold out at most Apple retail locations as well.



    That is at least data that you might reasonably extrapolate. I don't think there were any reports of diminished iPad WiFi availability in the run-up to the weekend, which would suggest that there have been some extra sales of WiFi models associated with people who went in purely to get a 3G. There are three scenarios I can come up with for that: (1) you go in to get your 3G with an acquaintance of some kind, and they cannot resist iPads in person, although they don't have the same requirements as you; (2) you go in to get a 3G (maybe having stubbornly decided not to go before you have the choice), conclude that you don't really need it, and get a cheaper WiFi model instead; or (3) you go in to get a 3G, they're sold out, so you walk out with a WiFi one. I fully expect (3) to cover the majority case, which would mean that iPad WiFi will cannibalise iPad 3G sales until the supply increases.



    Still, whatever the numbers are, it does sound like Apple has had a good semi-launch, and was probably wise (sigh) to hold off on selling the iPad overseas until the end of the month. Frankly I'd be surprised if so many people actually need the 3G (it's useful to business people in transit and... who else? it's not like you're going to whip it out of your pocket while you're out and about), probably most such people are driven by a "just in case" attitude and the perception that it's a "big iPhone": after all, would you rather buy a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone? I don't expect the 3G sales to suddenly tank, though, I think it'll be a year before the general public really knows what an iPad is as much as they do an iPhone, and when that happens I'd expect a split comparable to the iBook:PowerBook split just before the switch to Intel - I actually have no idea what that ratio was, but I'd guess maybe 4:1.
  • Reply 47 of 94
    successsuccess Posts: 1,040member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post


    I live in NY and wifi doesn't come easy. People have either learned to password protect their network or you have to pay a fee to use it similar to a situation like Starbucks. I think the future is eventually in using cellular data.



    I remember the good ol' days when WiFi at cafes was free.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post


    Two things that bother about the situation with AT&T is:



    1. You have to have a separate plan with AT&T even if you already have an iPhone which is BS.



    That sucks but I bet SoftBank will do the same here in Japan which will piss me off. Actually what am I saying. They already do that. Same with NTT. If you are paying for internet which costs anywhere from $40.00 to $60.00 you have to pay a separate monthly fee if you want their separate WiFi service and that service is only in major hubs such as train stations, airports and some cafes. And ISPs complain when people find ways to get free internet. Some people are paying a mobile fee, WiFi fee and full cable package every month. Can you blame me for using the next door neighbour's WiFi. It's free! Here in Japan you can actually get in trouble but whatever. I'll be buying the new iPhone and iPad in July, selling my 2007 MacBook and buying a new iMac or a new MacBook Pro + external display.









    .
  • Reply 48 of 94
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    Why are they having such a hard time manufacturing them I wonder? Surely it would be nearly all the same parts/people as the iPhone 3GS.
  • Reply 49 of 94
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by robogobo View Post


    I'm American and I live in Europe, so I got mixed up all the time when I first came here. Now I've taken to writing the month out ("May") or using the international/computer format in most cases (yyyymmdd).



    Another cool thing I've seen people do is use Roman numerals for the month and ordinary numerals for the day.
  • Reply 50 of 94
    maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member
    Apple made the right mix of portability and functionality with the ipad. I don't care what the haters say. No camera, no ten usb ports(by the way a single usb 2 port can accept like 500 items) who cares.

    And Apple wasn't going to make the ipad compete with their hot selling laptop line that was for sure. I'm holding off for the 2nd generation high end 3G ipad next year,
  • Reply 51 of 94
    ranreloadedranreloaded Posts: 397member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Charel View Post


    We say 10 May 2010 so we write 10-05-2010. It is sometimes confusing when the dates can mean both and one has to check whether the source is US or the rest of the world. Like the infamous 9/11



    I'm not a native english speaker but I guess, when you use numbers only, to group them in ascending or descending order of their units (day - month - year OR year- month - day) is more logical.
  • Reply 52 of 94
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    Why are they having such a hard time manufacturing them I wonder? Surely it would be nearly all the same parts/people as the iPhone 3GS.



    It's thought that one reason might be the multitouch layer of the screen. The same company, ironically, that owns E-ink, owns a company that makes screens. Apparently, this one is new to them, and it's believed that they may have had some delays, or slow production for awhile.



    http://www.electronista.com/articles...ndle.and.ipad/
  • Reply 53 of 94
    igrumbleigrumble Posts: 32member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post


    I live in NY and wifi doesn't come easy. People have either learned to password protect their network or you have to pay a fee to use it similar to a situation like Starbucks. I think the future is eventually in using cellular data.



    You're paying for the cellular data too, and that's particularly obvious with a data-only device like an iPad. Bandwidth is relatively cheap as long as you have a mechanism to prevent abuse (yes, making people pay a small amount for it is one such possible mechanism), and WiFi infrastructure should be far cheaper than cell towers, so I could quite imagine NY providing some city-funded reasonable-speed WiFi in the popular areas to encourage business and tourism. I'd expect the future of wireless data to mean that you get VOIP over WiFi on your phone when you're in a built-up area, and just normal 3G (or 4G or 5G) at noticeably-below-wifi data rates everywhere else. Apart from the VOIP part, existing mobile phone networks do already "provide" WiFi coverage and encourage its use because it's far cheaper for them and better for their customers.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    easy estimate. it is the same amount that the wifi did the first weekend.



    First day. There will have been some sales on the Sunday after the WiFi model launched, which (if Munster's guess is actually correct) would mean that the 3G launch was slightly less successful than the WiFi one.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by allotrope View Post


    Those numbers may be conservative. My fedex guy told me they were inundated with ipads to ship on Friday



    Well, yes, people have had plenty of time to realise they need to pre-order to be sure. That'll be why Apple haven't talked about the pre-order numbers: because they won't have been representative of demand in the same way as WiFi pre-orders were. But Munster's guessing algorithm in this case depends purely on in-store stock, so it'll be no surprise if the pre-order shipments are wildly different... in fact, more pre-orders would drive Apple to get more stock (anticipating more demand) which would actually invert the sense of the presumption that fewer on the shelf means more sold.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post


    Here in Australia the iPads on Apple's site went from "Coming late April" to "Coming late May" at least now there is a pre order date 10/5/2010 or as you whacky Americans put it 5/10/2010.



    Yes, that was established a a couple of weeks ago. My guess is that Apple decided to switch the mixed WiFi/3G manufacturing for the international launch to just manufacturing the 3G for the US 3G launch because they wouldn't otherwise have had the manufacturing capacity to handle the 3G launch (the WiFi model however will be churning out of factories at a good speed by now).



    Incidentally, the ISO8601 format (2010-05-10) is much more logical since it's big-endian rather than little-endian.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    One benefit of the 3G models is the GPS that's included in the same chipset. It would be interesting if someone made a cradle for it to hang on in vehicles. Add some augmented reality and that would be the ultimate GPS.



    You won't get AR without a camera, and I doubt that one will be available even as an accessory. But still, you could have Google Street View on there or something. I can imagine that some people will manufacture cradles for them, but I suspect that having a clearly-visual multipurpose device in the drivers field of view would turn out to be (or end up being) quite illegal. On the other hand, if you had a passenger-side mount, that would enable the passenger to act as quite a good navigator.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    According to a poll I saw before launch, the Wifi 16GB and the 64GB 3G version were the two most popular choices people made.



    I think I remember that same poll, although I can't remember where it was! Anyway, that poll (if you and I are thinking of the same one) distinctively showed a most-expensive/least-expensive pattern, with the middle-of-the-price-range iPads the least popular, a 1,6, 2,5, 3,4 pattern. I don't think that the actual specifications were really a factor, it will just have been two distinct kinds of people in one poll: idealists voting for the one they'd buy if money was no object, and realists voting for the one they'd buy if they were forced to buy one right now.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post


    I never understood why dates were written that way outside the U.S. I know this is completely off-topic, but i couldn't resist! I mean, when you speak the date, you say "May 10th", not "10th of May", so why would you write it differently?



    As has been mentioned elsewhere, "(the) 10th of May" is common basically everywhere outside North America, just as the MM/DD date pattern is basically unused throughout the world. In English, it doesn't parse well - do you say "race 10th" or "line 10th"? "10th of May" is short for "10th day of May", which makes plenty of sense; I presume that the North American form (it does apply to Canada, doesn't it?) is short for "in May, the 10th day".



    There does seem to be an increasing tendency for news programs to say dates the American way in the UK, but I think common conversation still favours the international form.
  • Reply 54 of 94
    igrumbleigrumble Posts: 32member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    Why are they having such a hard time manufacturing them I wonder? Surely it would be nearly all the same parts/people as the iPhone 3GS.



    Similar, maybe, but not the same. The constraint will be on manufacture of iPads at all (eg. the case, screen, CPU, flash), hence why they couldn't even manage a WiFi-only international launch on time. I presume that there are a few key bottlenecks preventing production from being increased until some of the suppliers improve their production capacity.
  • Reply 55 of 94
    noirdesirnoirdesir Posts: 1,027member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FormerARSgm View Post


    Why is it that AT&T isn't allowed to charge you for a service they provide without it being "BS"??



    When people are asked whether they would like an unlimited iPhone data plan but without tethering OR a data plan capped at 500 MB but including tethering, they will say BS (with which they essentially mean it should be illegal to offer a plan without tethering or at least totally morally reprehensible).



    It might be annoying [to have no tethering] but it is hardly illegal nor morally reprehensible. What can be viewed as morally reprehensible is for AT&T to not keep its promises regarding the timeline for tethering.
  • Reply 56 of 94
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post


    I live in NY and wifi doesn't come easy. People have either learned to password protect their network or you have to pay a fee to use it similar to a situation like Starbucks. I think the future is eventually in using cellular data.



    Two things that bother about the situation with AT&T is:



    1. You have to have a separate plan with AT&T even if you already have an iPhone which is BS.



    2. You're already paying for an unlimited data plan. While I'm sure that all of us US customers are used to getting screwed by carriers, I'm sure that it won't be the case in many places in the rest of the world.



    I'd also like to know if it's AT&T or ABC that is limiting the ABC player to only wifi.



    What do you have for DSL service? Cable?



    I'm in Washington state on Qwest and I've got access to all the AT&T hot spots due to a contract Qwest made with AT&T. It cost me zilch.



    There are hundreds of locations just on Manhattan with AT&T Hotspots.
  • Reply 57 of 94
    ranreloadedranreloaded Posts: 397member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by robogobo View Post


    Now THAT"S analysis.



    Something along the lines of:

    "There has been speculation that the shortage is likely due to Apple being unable to manufacture enough units, but this is debatable."
  • Reply 58 of 94
    ranreloadedranreloaded Posts: 397member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Charel View Post


    We say 10 May 2010 so we write 10-05-2010. It is sometimes confusing when the dates can mean both and one has to check whether the source is US or the rest of the world. Like the infamous 9/11



    ...or the ubiquitous 7eleven.
  • Reply 59 of 94
    igrumbleigrumble Posts: 32member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post


    When people are asked whether they would like an unlimited iPhone data plan but without tethering OR a data plan capped at 500 MB but including tethering, they will say BS (with which they essentially mean it should be illegal to offer a plan without tethering or at least totally morally reprehensible).



    I think essentially those are people who are frustrated with what amounts to a format shifting issue: they've got unlimited data on their phone and don't use it that much, and they are capped/don't have internet available/don't like paying for internet on their computers, so they really want to "transform" their phone data allowance into something they can use on their computers. It's somewhat comparable to the desire to charge your phone off your laptop battery.



    I think the reason people get upset about it is that they know that the economics would never support it, and declare it to be "unfair" (in a deeply subjective way). The fact is that there are many situations where you can declare something to be "unlimited" because the usage is, in the overwhelmingly common case, limited by some other factor, which means that the supplier can basically tell their customers not to worry about it while also practically supplying whatever the resource is for a reasonable cost. If you've got an iPhone, you probably won't try to use it for more than half an hour at a time (unless playing games), you've got a hard limit on how much you could possibly download (32GB or whatever, but I know that wouldn't include streaming video), and your battery will run out if you download continuously for, say 2 hours (hypothetically, I haven't tried it). Compare that to one or more always-on computers with ten times the space and a display that's comfortable for watching hours of HD video on. It's just completely disproportionate, and if the carrier doesn't have the infrastructure to handle desktop-scale download rates for the expected proportion of their customers, then it would just serve to give phone users very choppy internet access while a few people are doing things like downloading pirate DVDs (unattended) that they never intend to actually watch.



    A data point for comparison: I've done 400MB in 18 months on my iphone (up+down), and I do tens of gigabytes per month to my computer (admittedly I'm an atypical user).
  • Reply 60 of 94
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 989member
    So much for the doom and gloom. Too bad I couldn't wait any longer. Maybe next year
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