Just another example of statisticians making the numbers lie and tell a story they want told
It's somewhat possible, but I don't know that there's any reason to consider NPD to be biased in this case. There will be multiple ways to read the numbers (it's likely that they could have used the handset manufacturer to split the Android block, for example), but they probably just took the ones they ended up with on the first go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianBob
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
BOGOF.
There's a business handbook now? Of course there aren't any regulations to prevent it, nor should there be, but counting free items as sales is at least misleading in that it overstates demand. Which is exactly the same objection as I have to Apple's App Store numbers (downloads and available applications): free apps (downloaded or otherwise) do not make the App Store a more viable market, only paid-for apps do.
In practice, free phones will be treated by some consumers as effectively half price (getting two phones for $N rather than getting one phone for $N and one free), in which case it's a reasonable indication of demand, but there's no way of knowing (without asking them) what proportion of the buyers had that viewpoint.
Quote:
Originally Posted by phoebetech
I just realized, Apple is not mimicking Microsoft, it's mimicking AOL and we all know what happened to AOL. Hopefully Apple is not as delusional and do something about it rather than talk.
Please explain why you think Apple are mimicking AOL? I don't see any parallels there.
WalMart has terrible customer service and has tight controls over it's content (just like Apple). WalMart is also a very successful business and has innovated the merchandising industry with their approach to supply chain management. Apple seems to be following that path except that it pays a premium for customer service. It'll be interesting to see what happens from this different business approach.
walmart doesn't provide their employees with adequate healthcare and sends them to get additional care through their respective states, thereby depleting the funds that can go to those less fortunate than them.
walmart has also destroyed small business.
also, if you live in a small town, worked for them, then had a falling out, good luck getting a job somewhere nearby.
yeah, walmart is a company whose ethics i wholeheartedly support.
i've worked at apple. they even treat their freelancers well.
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
Is it ethical? Yes
Does it cause additional money to be made? Yes
BOGO is completely fair game. I'm still surprised Apple/AT&T hasn't done one to even further increase its marketshare and profits.
Oh? And you have the actual Q1 sales numbers to prove that NPD's data is a lie?
Yes I do have the sales figures, motorola said they only shipped 2.1M droid phones and HTC numbers were not much different.
BTW it was survey and by definition of survey it is statistical analysis and the only thing you can conclude from it is the data is wrong
Also, you have not clue about marketing, Apple is not interested in gaining market share over devaluing the product. This is marketing 101, Apple will never allow the product to be given away, either you pay the price of you do own the product. Why give away a product when people are whiling to pay for.
walmart doesn't provide their employees with adequate healthcare and sends them to get additional care through their respective states, thereby depleting the funds that can go to those less fortunate than them.
walmart has also destroyed small business.
also, if you live in a small town, worked for them, then had a falling out, good luck getting a job somewhere nearby.
yeah, walmart is a company whose ethics i wholeheartedly support.
i've worked at apple. they even treat their freelancers well.
all companies are unethical to a degree. if apple is ethical, why is it doing business in China?
The PR department carefully worded its statement to lead into the world-wide figures that can't be changing so fast in Google's favor. Apple didn't get into disputing the accuracy of NPD's figures, perhaps because the figures might be accurate enough and because it's safer just to focus on what Apple knows for certain.
Solid statistics can be misinterpreted easily enough as it is. Customer self-reporting surveys like NPD's are just pining to be inaccurate.
What was the distribution of respondents among the different carriers? Did Verizon customers respond 3:1 to AT&T customers responding?
How many Verizon customers said they bought an iPhone in the past month?
How many AT&T customers said they bought an Android device in February?
Does "past month" mean the last 30 days, the last 31 days, the month before this one, or maybe so far this year?
If I was on Verizon and had been holding out for an iPhone, just to send a little message to Apple, I might have felt compelled to say I just bought an Android device even if I hadn't or even if it had been months ago.
As I wrote yesterday, AT&T reported 2.7m activations this past quarter. Some small number above that may have bought iPhones and activated on T-mobile or outside the US.
According to IDC, HTC sold 2.6m smartphones and Motorola sold 2.3m smartphones this past quarter worldwide. (Canalys reportes 2.8m for HTC and 2.6m for Motorola, so you can see that it's not that accurate.) Samsung also sold some Android phones in the US (but its not in the top 5 worldwide so its total is less than 2.3m smartphones). There are other Android-based phones, but I think most of those sales are outside US.
So roughly over 5m smartphone sales worldwide between HTC, Motorola and Samsung. Most of Motorola's smartphone sales are probably in the US. Based on 3Q2009 data, a good portion of HTC's sales were WinMo-based; I'm sure less are WinMo-based now, but don't have any data for 1Q. The majority of HTC's sales are probably outside of US, but again, no specific data.
Conclusion: The numbers indicate that Android-based smartphone sales are in the same ballpark as iPhone for Q1.
Yep, I'm surprised they didn't try to hide the stuttering. LOL @ smooth as silk.
Smooth as half melted butter then? lol
It does have a little stutter in some places, but that stutter is FAR from interfering, and for a first version, I'd say they did very well. Well enough to squash the whole debate over whether or not Flash can run on mobile phones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mac_dog
nobody cares.
wait. only the trolls on this site do.
Yeah, that's why any time a flash vs html5 discussion pops up, a few hundred comments tend to follow. Cuz of the trolls Riiiight
I just posted the video because it was interesting, and this thread is about Android. It's not meant to start a flame war.
That's just nitpicking. If NPD want to include smartphone stats by OS, I'd expect that to only include smartphones.
Since there are so many non-phone devices that use the iPhone OS and run the iPhone Apps, this is an important point for Apple to make. Apple has by far the largest App marketplace, which is what makes it so attractive to developers.
Just another example of statisticians making the numbers lie and tell a story they want told
what? could you be any more blindly biased? same holds true for most apple stats but nobody complains about those. android can be good without iphone being bad.
Hi, just thought I would post a non-troll comment here.
The difference IS that RIM and "Android" phones are 2-1 deals now and you can pick up a palm pre for 49 bucks or something, so you would think that number of units shipped are up.
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
Is it ethical? Yes
Does it cause additional money to be made? Yes
BOGO is completely fair game. I'm still surprised Apple/AT&T hasn't done one to even further increase its marketshare and profits.?
True, but I don't think anybody said it was not allowed or unfair. The fact is it is a desperation move.
And does it make money? Yes but probably less than half as much as for one phone (I have to admit I don't know the contractual terms.) In any case, all the money is in the contract not the hardware and the other hardware makers are getting nowhere near the revenue per handset that Apple is. In most cases they're getting less than a third of what Apple gets.
Since there are so many non-phone devices that use the iPhone OS and run the iPhone Apps, this is an important point for Apple to make. Apple has by far the largest App marketplace, which is what makes it so attractive to developers.
from what i hear, androids marketplace leaves much to be desired. i'm hoping it's usably good for buying apps but i really want to start building them for it now that i got CS5
Well, unless Apple hire the worst customer support staff in the history of the universe (and covering all lifeforms and cultures there-within) then there is little chance of Apple mimicking AOL.
The difference here is just US versus World. iPhone does better internationally because Apple has multiple carriers in most countries. Apple only has one carrier in the US, so Apple doesn't do as well in the US.
But either way you look at it, Android is certainly a real competitor and certainly the existence of Android seriously undermines Adobe's anti-trust arguments.
The point is that it tends to skew the numbers and is unsustainable. Eventually, either the carrier or the manufacturer has to cut it off because it affects profitability.
In addition, at least part of the Android sales results are a surge from people who wanted a good phone on something other than AT&T - and Android is the first decent non-AT&T phone. Once those people have gotten their phone, the pressure will be off.
It's going to be a lot more interesting to see how this plays out for the long run.
If it wasn't profitable, then why has Verizon kept it going for years on their BlackBerries and then extend it to all smartphones? They're the largest cell phone carrier in the US and I think BOGO has a large hand in that.
The IDC puts Android at the #2 position behind Symbian by 2013. But I agree. We'll have to see how this plays out in the long run.
Quote:
Actually, we do. See the IDC numbers in the report.
IDC numbers are based on actual sales. NPD numbers are based on a self-selected group, leaning toward geeks, and their self-reported purchases.
I know the iPhone has done much better worldwide than Android. However, since NPD's data is for the US market, I'd like to see the break-down of those worldwide sales. Using worldwide sales to compare in the US market is...well...skewing.
Comments
hey did everybody see the cool video of flash running smooth as silk on a nexus one?
nobody cares.
wait. only the trolls on this site do.
Just another example of statisticians making the numbers lie and tell a story they want told
It's somewhat possible, but I don't know that there's any reason to consider NPD to be biased in this case. There will be multiple ways to read the numbers (it's likely that they could have used the handset manufacturer to split the Android block, for example), but they probably just took the ones they ended up with on the first go.
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
BOGOF.
There's a business handbook now? Of course there aren't any regulations to prevent it, nor should there be, but counting free items as sales is at least misleading in that it overstates demand. Which is exactly the same objection as I have to Apple's App Store numbers (downloads and available applications): free apps (downloaded or otherwise) do not make the App Store a more viable market, only paid-for apps do.
In practice, free phones will be treated by some consumers as effectively half price (getting two phones for $N rather than getting one phone for $N and one free), in which case it's a reasonable indication of demand, but there's no way of knowing (without asking them) what proportion of the buyers had that viewpoint.
I just realized, Apple is not mimicking Microsoft, it's mimicking AOL and we all know what happened to AOL. Hopefully Apple is not as delusional and do something about it rather than talk.
Please explain why you think Apple are mimicking AOL? I don't see any parallels there.
WalMart has terrible customer service and has tight controls over it's content (just like Apple). WalMart is also a very successful business and has innovated the merchandising industry with their approach to supply chain management. Apple seems to be following that path except that it pays a premium for customer service. It'll be interesting to see what happens from this different business approach.
walmart doesn't provide their employees with adequate healthcare and sends them to get additional care through their respective states, thereby depleting the funds that can go to those less fortunate than them.
walmart has also destroyed small business.
also, if you live in a small town, worked for them, then had a falling out, good luck getting a job somewhere nearby.
yeah, walmart is a company whose ethics i wholeheartedly support.
i've worked at apple. they even treat their freelancers well.
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
Is it ethical? Yes
Does it cause additional money to be made? Yes
BOGO is completely fair game. I'm still surprised Apple/AT&T hasn't done one to even further increase its marketshare and profits.
Oh? And you have the actual Q1 sales numbers to prove that NPD's data is a lie?
Yes I do have the sales figures, motorola said they only shipped 2.1M droid phones and HTC numbers were not much different.
BTW it was survey and by definition of survey it is statistical analysis and the only thing you can conclude from it is the data is wrong
Also, you have not clue about marketing, Apple is not interested in gaining market share over devaluing the product. This is marketing 101, Apple will never allow the product to be given away, either you pay the price of you do own the product. Why give away a product when people are whiling to pay for.
Please explain why you think Apple are mimicking AOL? I don't see any parallels there.
Please, don't encourage him.
walmart doesn't provide their employees with adequate healthcare and sends them to get additional care through their respective states, thereby depleting the funds that can go to those less fortunate than them.
walmart has also destroyed small business.
also, if you live in a small town, worked for them, then had a falling out, good luck getting a job somewhere nearby.
yeah, walmart is a company whose ethics i wholeheartedly support.
i've worked at apple. they even treat their freelancers well.
all companies are unethical to a degree. if apple is ethical, why is it doing business in China?
The PR department carefully worded its statement to lead into the world-wide figures that can't be changing so fast in Google's favor. Apple didn't get into disputing the accuracy of NPD's figures, perhaps because the figures might be accurate enough and because it's safer just to focus on what Apple knows for certain.
Solid statistics can be misinterpreted easily enough as it is. Customer self-reporting surveys like NPD's are just pining to be inaccurate.
What was the distribution of respondents among the different carriers? Did Verizon customers respond 3:1 to AT&T customers responding?
How many Verizon customers said they bought an iPhone in the past month?
How many AT&T customers said they bought an Android device in February?
Does "past month" mean the last 30 days, the last 31 days, the month before this one, or maybe so far this year?
If I was on Verizon and had been holding out for an iPhone, just to send a little message to Apple, I might have felt compelled to say I just bought an Android device even if I hadn't or even if it had been months ago.
As I wrote yesterday, AT&T reported 2.7m activations this past quarter. Some small number above that may have bought iPhones and activated on T-mobile or outside the US.
According to IDC, HTC sold 2.6m smartphones and Motorola sold 2.3m smartphones this past quarter worldwide. (Canalys reportes 2.8m for HTC and 2.6m for Motorola, so you can see that it's not that accurate.) Samsung also sold some Android phones in the US (but its not in the top 5 worldwide so its total is less than 2.3m smartphones). There are other Android-based phones, but I think most of those sales are outside US.
So roughly over 5m smartphone sales worldwide between HTC, Motorola and Samsung. Most of Motorola's smartphone sales are probably in the US. Based on 3Q2009 data, a good portion of HTC's sales were WinMo-based; I'm sure less are WinMo-based now, but don't have any data for 1Q. The majority of HTC's sales are probably outside of US, but again, no specific data.
Conclusion: The numbers indicate that Android-based smartphone sales are in the same ballpark as iPhone for Q1.
Yep, I'm surprised they didn't try to hide the stuttering. LOL @ smooth as silk.
Smooth as half melted butter then? lol
It does have a little stutter in some places, but that stutter is FAR from interfering, and for a first version, I'd say they did very well. Well enough to squash the whole debate over whether or not Flash can run on mobile phones.
nobody cares.
wait. only the trolls on this site do.
Yeah, that's why any time a flash vs html5 discussion pops up, a few hundred comments tend to follow. Cuz of the trolls
I just posted the video because it was interesting, and this thread is about Android. It's not meant to start a flame war.
That's just nitpicking. If NPD want to include smartphone stats by OS, I'd expect that to only include smartphones.
Since there are so many non-phone devices that use the iPhone OS and run the iPhone Apps, this is an important point for Apple to make. Apple has by far the largest App marketplace, which is what makes it so attractive to developers.
Just another example of statisticians making the numbers lie and tell a story they want told
what? could you be any more blindly biased? same holds true for most apple stats but nobody complains about those. android can be good without iphone being bad.
The difference IS that RIM and "Android" phones are 2-1 deals now and you can pick up a palm pre for 49 bucks or something, so you would think that number of units shipped are up.
*FIRST* <- non-troll comment.
And where in the business handbook does it say that you aren't allowed to have BOGO promotions?
Is it ethical? Yes
Does it cause additional money to be made? Yes
BOGO is completely fair game. I'm still surprised Apple/AT&T hasn't done one to even further increase its marketshare and profits.?
True, but I don't think anybody said it was not allowed or unfair. The fact is it is a desperation move.
And does it make money? Yes but probably less than half as much as for one phone (I have to admit I don't know the contractual terms.) In any case, all the money is in the contract not the hardware and the other hardware makers are getting nowhere near the revenue per handset that Apple is. In most cases they're getting less than a third of what Apple gets.
Since there are so many non-phone devices that use the iPhone OS and run the iPhone Apps, this is an important point for Apple to make. Apple has by far the largest App marketplace, which is what makes it so attractive to developers.
from what i hear, androids marketplace leaves much to be desired. i'm hoping it's usably good for buying apps but i really want to start building them for it now that i got CS5
Well, unless Apple hire the worst customer support staff in the history of the universe (and covering all lifeforms and cultures there-within) then there is little chance of Apple mimicking AOL.
Hmm.. I dunno man. Comcast is pretty bad too.
Oh? And you have the actual Q1 sales numbers to prove that NPD's data is a lie?
If it was an online poll, then NPD's data isn't "actual Q1 sales numbers" either, is it?
Its just an online poll, which has a huge margin of error.
all companies are unethical to a degree. if apple is ethical, why is it doing business in China?
"Ethical" business cannot be done in China?
I was unaware of that (and I'm no big fan of the government of the PRC, although I appreciate Chinese citizens.)
But either way you look at it, Android is certainly a real competitor and certainly the existence of Android seriously undermines Adobe's anti-trust arguments.
Of course it's fair game. No one said otherwise.
The point is that it tends to skew the numbers and is unsustainable. Eventually, either the carrier or the manufacturer has to cut it off because it affects profitability.
In addition, at least part of the Android sales results are a surge from people who wanted a good phone on something other than AT&T - and Android is the first decent non-AT&T phone. Once those people have gotten their phone, the pressure will be off.
It's going to be a lot more interesting to see how this plays out for the long run.
If it wasn't profitable, then why has Verizon kept it going for years on their BlackBerries and then extend it to all smartphones? They're the largest cell phone carrier in the US and I think BOGO has a large hand in that.
The IDC puts Android at the #2 position behind Symbian by 2013. But I agree. We'll have to see how this plays out in the long run.
Actually, we do. See the IDC numbers in the report.
IDC numbers are based on actual sales. NPD numbers are based on a self-selected group, leaning toward geeks, and their self-reported purchases.
Which one do you think is more accurate?
All I've been able to find is this recent report:
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22322210
I know the iPhone has done much better worldwide than Android. However, since NPD's data is for the US market, I'd like to see the break-down of those worldwide sales. Using worldwide sales to compare in the US market is...well...skewing.
Apple actually has a spokesperson? What does she do the other 364.9 days of the year?
I was thinking the same thing!
Google's coming