AT&T not worried about iPhone exclusivity; Verizon voice & data rumor

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  • Reply 21 of 68
    gregoriusmgregoriusm Posts: 517member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jetz View Post


    I don't buy the exclusivity agreement impacting Apple profits and iPhone subsidies. Here in Canada, all three national carriers sell the iPhone. All three charge the same price. I think it's a safe bet to say that all three will be putting in the same subsidy.



    Why can't it be the same in the US?



    Don't know, seeing as how both Telus and Bell were CDMA only, and have put 3G on top of that to support the iPhone and similar phones.



    I don't know if Verizon has been pursuing the same technology as Telus and Bell on the way to LTE, but if they have been, then there's no reason the current iPhone couldn't be put on Verizon.



    It could have to do with internal politics, contracts, etc. as well, not just the technology.



    Hmmmmmmm....... I just had a thought. Maybe the new iPhone "prototype" leaks are true. The ones without the screws for AT&T and the ones with the screws for Verizon... jus 'cause! lol
  • Reply 22 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by estyle View Post


    It also seems that the Verizon phone would come after a possible second phone for China (you know, the larger untapped market).



    A TD-SCDMA iPhone would have the potential to reach about 540 million subscribers on China Mobile version the 100 million on Verizon, but there are other factors to consider, like the number of actual potential buyers on each network, as well as the CDMA iPhone being used on other carriers, too, while TD-SCDMA is specifically for one network in China.



    I have no idea which is the better short term or long term choice, as both look like large untapped markets to me.
  • Reply 23 of 68
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    I am a proponent for Apple to explore all possible markets, in the US and worldwide, for the iPhone.



    The argument about when LTE technology become more widespread in the US, was not the stumbling block in regard the manufacture of an iPhone for other carriers, in the US or abroad. Apple is capable of manufacturing non-GSM iPhones:
    1. Apple has considered Verizon as its original partner, so it must be quite familiar with CDMA technology even before it embraced GSM technology for the iPhone.

    2. When Apple wanted to explore the Chinese market, more than a year ago, it negotiated first with the largest telecommunications company in China -- China Mobile -- the technology is a unique CDMA specific for China. Again reinforcing that Apple is willing to use non-GSM technology. Apple has never really closed its negotiation with China Mobile, even if it decided to go with a GSM carrier, when talks with China Mobile bogged down.

    3. All the major phone manufacturers have both GSM and CDMA phones tailored for specific markets in the world.

    The above suggest that it is not the LTE which will determine whether Apple will manufacture a Verizon iPhone. It will depend more on whether Verizon and Steve Jobs can come to terms. That has always been the issue, even well before 2007.



    The argument as to which market Apple should enter first, for non-GSM iPhones is not likely an issue. If I have to speculate, Apple would try to avert the Android phones from getting a stranglehold in any market not yet explored by the iPhone. Since the breakup between Apple and Google, the behavior of Apple indicates that it considers the Google-led Android phones, as Apple iPhone's most formidable competition. And rightly so.



    Apple has entered much much smaller markets once it decided that it would sell the GSM iPhone. My sense was that it was hindered more by negotiations with partners, initially for an exclusive partner for each country considered, and later on, whether to adapt the multi-carrier strategy, once it abandoned the revenue sharing. It was true that it did it in stages, but Apple was still learning the ropes at the time, and the pace of negotiations could have affected this also.



    Once Apple decides to manufacture non-GSM iPhones, it would likely explore as many markets where this will apply -- to contain an Android domination of still unexplored markets. It has more than three years already negotiating with companies, worldwide.



    The one technical issue perhaps was the potential fragmentation of the Apps ecosystem, if it would have variants of the GSM and CDMA platforms. However, Apple was able to create compatible iTunes, Apps and iBooks for both the Macs and Wintel users, so there is no reason why Apple cannot do the same once it has multiple variants of the iPhone.



    CGC
  • Reply 24 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GregoriusM View Post


    Don't know, seeing as how both Telus and Bell were CDMA only, and have put 3G on top of that to support the iPhone and similar phones.



    There has been a lot of that. I see that they supported CDMA and CDMA2000 before, fairly late in the game, adding 3GSM, but there are plenty of other examples of carriers that started off with CDMA for '2G' and added GSM and/or 3GSM to secure their future. I think it's been clear for at least 6 years now that 3GPP offers the best path for the future.
  • Reply 25 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


    Apple has considered Verizon as its original partner, so it must be quite familiar with CDMA technology even before it embraced GSM technology for the iPhone.



    There is a single point of outside data to support that and how would they know who Apple approached and when. The only word of that comes from Verizon in a "sour grapes" comment.



    I do think they approached Verizon and have been approaching Verizon for the past 3 years but that is how you negotiate even if just to leverage your position with your current carrier. I also think they have been developing a CDMA-based iPhone all these years but neither of these things, if true, are proof that they approached Verizon first.



    Quote:

    When Apple wanted to explore the Chinese market, more than a year ago, it negotiated first with the largest telecommunications company in China -- China Mobile -- the technology is a unique CDMA specific for China. Again reinforcing that Apple is willing to use non-GSM technology. Apple has never really closed its negotiation with China Mobile, even if it decided to go with a GSM carrier, when talks with China Mobile bogged down.



    1) China Mobile also uses GSM (GPRS/EDGE), just not 3GSM.

    2) Again, they could have used this to leverage a better position with the second largest Chinese carrier.

    3) TD-SCDMA is not a "unique CDMA specific for China". It uses the same EXACT air interface as UMTS (3GSM) networks and it much closer to the W-CDMA found in the current iPhone than anything Verizon or other CDMA networks use.
  • Reply 26 of 68
    foo2foo2 Posts: 1,077member
    I expect this is just part of Verizon's FUD leading up to and beyond the iPhone HD announcement in a couple weeks. Verizon really, truly hopes people don't buy the shiny new iPhone on AT&T and will hold out instead for a not-gonna-happen-until-at-least-2011 Verizon iPhone
  • Reply 27 of 68
    ssquirrelssquirrel Posts: 1,196member
    Sprint's current customer base is 48M as of Feb 2010. Verizon has 87.5M as of the end of 2009. Together that means a potential 135.5M customers if Apple produces a CDMA version. I'm waiting for Apple's iPhone announcements in June and then I'll end up with an EVO. Unless they shock me and have an iPhone for Sprint, then I'll get that
  • Reply 28 of 68
    theshepherdtheshepherd Posts: 164member
    I have GSM service with an independent cell provider in Wyoming. Yesterday I was talking to one of the reps who said they were suppose to get the iPhone in June. I don't know how reliable this rumor is but it is sounding like there might be other providers besides AT&T soon.
  • Reply 29 of 68
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    There is a single point of outside data to support that and how would they know who Apple approached and when. The only word of that comes from Verizon in a "sour grapes" comment. I also think they have been developing a CDMA-based iPhone all these years but neither of these things, if true, are proof that they approached Verizon



    I have no time to search for the references but the CEO of AT&T, then Cingular bragged about this. How he personally approved the deal even without a prototype of the iPhone -- just becaause he believed in Steve Jobs. If my memory serves, I remember Steve Jobs or some other high officer of Apple talked about this deal also in an interview (not sure whether it was on TV, magazine, NPR podcast??? -- I had a new iPod then). The focus was: How Apple approached Verizon first. [If anyone could confirm these with links, it would help. Thanks,]



    It was either in one or both of these interviews where it was revealed that Apple and Cingular entered into the orignal 5-yerar contract.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I do think they approached Verizon and have been approaching Verizon for the past 3 years but that is how you negotiate even if just to leverage your position with your current carrier..



    Since we are not privy to the minutes of the negotiations, more than likely mostly verbal, this conjecture may or may not be true that the negotiations may be a ploy to strengthen Apple's negotiations with AT&T.



    It is just as valid, which may or may not be proven to be true much later in the future, to speculate that Apple fully realized that Verizon has enough customers, especially after the AllTel acquisition, to be simply ignored. In fact, with the entry of Android, a platform that was only more recent than the iPhone is a trump card that strengthened the hand of Verizon, at least much better position than it had before.



    Apple knows, and Steve Jobs recognizes the that it must address the spectacular growth of the Android. Apple must contain this, and this would require entering markets where the iPhone is not yet present. To wait for LTE may be too late, if Apple/Steve Jobs consider the Android competition a priority. That it is indeed a priority to Apple/Steve Jobs is the press release of Apple to counter the US market share of Android and the iPhone. If I am not mistaken, Apple has not reacted in the same manner, even with the data that RIM has consistently beaten Apple iPhone for a number of quarters, in the US or worldwide,



    If Apple considers Android as its most formidable competition, I would speculated further that Apple may also create iPhones eventually for Sprint or even T-Mobile. They are just too large, larger than many markets of some countries.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    1) China Mobile also uses GSM (GPRS/EDGE), just not 3GSM.

    2) Again, they could have used this to leverage a better position with the second largest Chinese carrier.

    3) TD-SCDMA is not a "unique CDMA specific for China". It uses the same EXACT air interface as UMTS (3GSM) networks and it much closer to the W-CDMA found in the current iPhone than anything Verizon or other CDMA networks use.



    Again, if memory serves, China Mobile wanted Apple to develop the local version of the CDMA so that the carrier will not pay royalties to Qualcom. Argue with the Chinese if it is unique or not, the point is that if the Chinese CDMA is not unique enough, they would have been paying royalties to Qualcom.



    While still a rumor, the latest buzz from DigiTimes, was that Apple contracted 10M CDMA iPhones. If true, this will be consistent with iPhone CDMA more than likely for China, if indeed the contract between Apple-AT&T is still in place.



    We should know either this year or next which of these speculations is correct -- CDMA or GSM iPhone for China.



    The main point of contention at the time was the iTunes store. I am not sure if the Apps Store was already in play, at the time. China Mobile wanted to control the iTunes store, Steve Jobs won't allow it. Negotiations bogged down.



    The third largest China telecomm company, China Unicom (?), after lengthy negotiations, acceded to the demand that Apple would have full control of the iTunes store. I am not sure whether the Apps store was already in contention when the early negotions woth the other China telecomm was done. But, obviously Apple still had full control of the Apps Store, even in China.



    The success of China Unicom, after a slow start, made the CEO realize that it cannot ignore the iPhone. It remains to be seen whether they will continue to drag the negptiations, again.



    CGC
  • Reply 30 of 68
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    accidentally repeated during edit. Please remove this, if possible.
  • Reply 31 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


    Again, if memory serves, China Mobile wants Apple to develop the local version of the CDMA so that the carrier will not pay royalties to Qualcom. Argue with the Chinese if it is unique or not, the point is if it is not unique enough, they would have been paying royalty to Qualcom.



    Now why would China Mobile want Apple to make a CDMA iPhone when their entire cellular network has nothing to do with CDMA?



    I thought I was clear when i stated "TD-SCDMA is not a "unique CDMA specific for China". It uses the same EXACT air interface as UMTS (3GSM) networks and it much closer to the W-CDMA found in the current iPhone than anything Verizon or other CDMA networks use."



    China's CDMA network is China Telecom. Again, TD-SCDMA ≠ CDMA, localized, unique or otherwise.
  • Reply 32 of 68
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by harleighquinn View Post


    I still find it hard to believe Apple would customize one phone for one network that i sonly available in the US and a few select south american countries. That is just not financially viable or worth it to them to do.



    But I could be wrong. I have been before.



    If you run some numbers, it's hard to claim it would be not financially viable. Verizon has almost 100 million subscribers. If Apple can sell to 10% of those, that's 10 million iPhones, at a subsidized price of $500 per phone. That's 5 BILLION dollars in revenue. Apple's profit margins have been widely and consistently been reported in the range of 50%, so that's 2.5 billion in profits. How much of that 2.5 billion would it cost to develop this special iphone for Verizon? Given that other phone makers, who sell A LOT less phones, do it every month, I think the answer is clear.
  • Reply 33 of 68
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


    I expect this is just part of Verizon's FUD leading up to and beyond the iPhone HD announcement in a couple weeks. Verizon really, truly hopes people don't buy the shiny new iPhone on AT&T and will hold out instead for a not-gonna-happen-until-at-least-2011 Verizon iPhone



    Happens every year!
  • Reply 34 of 68
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post


    I have GSM service with an independent cell provider in Wyoming. Yesterday I was talking to one of the reps who said they were suppose to get the iPhone in June. I don't know how reliable this rumor is but it is sounding like there might be other providers besides AT&T soon.



    I know how reliable it is. Zero %



    If I had a nickle for every time someone said something like that (someone = salesperson almost every time) I'd be rich.
  • Reply 35 of 68
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    I know how reliable it is. Zero %



    If I had a nickle for every time someone said something like that (someone = salesperson almost every time) I'd be rich.



    Yeah, I think Verizon puts out this FUD every once in a while so as to try and freeze the subscriber market for ATT's iPhones.
  • Reply 36 of 68
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Yeah, I think Verizon puts out this FUD every once in a while so as to try and freeze the subscriber market for ATT's iPhones.



    No doubt. There's also no doubt that it's effective. MANY of my clients illustrate the effectiveness when they tell me that they're going to wait for an iPhone because "someone" told them it was coming to Verizon this fall. Two clients told me that today, and almost daily someone does.
  • Reply 37 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    No doubt. There's also no doubt that it's effective. MANY of my clients illustrate the effectiveness when they tell me that they're going to wait for an iPhone because "someone" told them it was coming to Verizon this fall. Two clients told me that today, and almost daily someone does.



    I oft here it, too. Never from T-Mobile or Sprint users, just Verizon users.
  • Reply 38 of 68
    wigginwiggin Posts: 2,265member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by harleighquinn View Post


    I still find it hard to believe Apple would customize one phone for one network that i sonly available in the US and a few select south american countries. That is just not financially viable or worth it to them to do.




    That logic only applies if all networks are equal from a # of subscribers perspective. But 1 network does not equal another.



    ATT represents over 1/3 of iPhones sold. Verizon is a little bigger than ATT. Do the math. If the iPhone can penetrate the same percentage of Verizon's customer base as it does with ATT, that represents a 33% increase in sales. Well worth the relatively minor technical effort needed.
  • Reply 39 of 68
    wigginwiggin Posts: 2,265member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Just how long would it take Verizon to upgrade their network to LTE anyway?



    Awhile. But CDMA can be upgraded to carry simultaneous voice/data without having to go to LTE. That upgrade is likely far easier than the transition to LTE.
  • Reply 40 of 68
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post


    That logic only applies if all networks are equal from a # of subscribers perspective. But 1 network does not equal another.



    ATT represents over 1/3 of iPhones sold. Verizon is a little bigger than ATT. Do the math. If the iPhone can penetrate the same percentage of Verizon's customer base as it does with ATT, that represents a 33% increase in sales. Well worth the relatively minor technical effort needed.



    While that's all true it's a scenario that ignores every other logistic issue in order to make a Verizon iPhone seem like a obvious choice.
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