I completely agree with Cory's previous post on the iPad...yeah, it's selling really well, but i think that if what Cory wants (as do i) in future iPad (a standalone device) doesn't come to fruition soon, like in the Gen2 or Gen4, then sales will be flat for the next couple years. the people that buy new ones will be either previous iPad owners wanting to blow another 800 bucks for the latest and greatest or people (like me) who are finally giving in (which i haven't on the Apple TV yet)...mainly because we want one and don't see anything more compelling (i.e. settling for now).
Of course. If the iPad becomes stagnant, so will its sales. That goes without saying. Not sure if the need to become a standalone device though. I don't think computers are going to disappear anytime soon.
Yep Dave, I know you are right about selling, I just horde Apple stuff
As you can see I immediately changed my feeling on the whole ebay issue and edited my post... I too am an admitted Apple horde... I have a few cubes (I think), a PPC laptop or 2... one or two old PPC powermac towers and a box-o-crap filled with ADB cables, Farallon phone-net connectors and assorted paraphernalia... I even have... GET THIS... A nubus QUICKTIME accelerator card (well the box for it anyway) that I just spotted in the attic. I saw it and said CRAP I gotta start throwing this stuff out!
I hope this is also accompanied by an Home Server with at least 3x 3.5" drive bays running ARM and iPhone OS with a local Cocoa app access or WebKit-based UI. I think this would be a popular product as integrated home storage is a growing desire.
Your predictions on what people will buy seem to be a little shaky. Based on later posts, even you bought an iPad.
Right? It's like some sort of mission to be perfectly incorrect in every post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips
So no OS update to existing hardware possible ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee
As the owner of 2 Apple TVs ... I feel your pain..
Considering it's gone through three rich updates without any additional cost and debuted BEFORE the original iPhone I'd say that nothing more than a minor bug update or compatibility update will be had, if that. 3+ years is more than adequate for free updates in my opinion and the HW is truly anemic at this point.
I hope that they use the TV's Take 3 UI, not the iPad's UI, for for this device. I also hope they have deals inked this time. I can't imagine they'd get it wrong the second time now that the platform has truly evolved into a specific direction and the tech is there to satisfy Apple's needs. Oh how things have changed in 3 years.
Yep Dave, I know you are right about selling, I just horde Apple stuff
Hmmm just thinking about this rumor... I have to wonder how many people WILL jump to sell their ATV now and cause a mini 'ebay panic' with everyone dropping ATV prices just so they can sell now before the new device comes out... Hey, what a great way to TRICK people into selling stuff CHEAP!
Maybe I need to float a rumor that a 1080p iPad that will go on sale next month for $199...
Of course. If the iPad becomes stagnant, so will its sales. That goes without saying. Not sure if the need to become a standalone device though. I don't think computers are going to disappear anytime soon.
PS: Why not Gen3?
Apple usually doesn't do major product overhauls, one after another, it's usually at the 4th generation that they do anyting huge.
I think the future is for the flat panel of a laptop or a Desktop to be removable for travel. When you unplug it, it functions as the current iPad does, like an OS lite. But when plugged into the CPU, it back to a fully functioning Mac.
That's what i see as the future, hope Apple agrees.
But it's free. People will be hard pressed to spend even $100 on a device whose main function is a storefront for renting and buying content.
How do you figure it was free? The manufacturer doesn't add feature out of the goodness of their hearts. They included the costs of the features into the television. So I paid for it.
If you can afford a $2000 television then $100 isn't a stretch.
This device is a rumor so it may be something other than a storefront for iTunes. The Roko from Netflix is $100 yet people somehow manage to buy it. It has way more functionality than the AppleTV but in the long run will save the buyer. We'll have to wait and see what benefit and cost savings (if any) the AppleTV will provide in the future if this rumor turns out to be true.
Please, can we cut this BS out? All tech companies "borrow" ideas from other companies. ...
Yes, but not all tech companies demonstrate wanton disregard for IP law, or have the opportunity of sitting on the board of companies they hope to steal ideas from.
I hope this is also accompanied by an Home Server with at least 3x 3.5" drive bays running ARM and iPhone OS with a local Cocoa app access or WebKit-based UI. I think this would be a popular product as integrated home storage is a growing desire.
Agreed. Windows Home Server is a good product and I'd like Apple to produce something similar. Maybe take the Time Capsule and enhance it by adding extra drives bays and data duplication.
How fast would my home Internet need to be to download 1080p?
I was at blockbuster yesterday. Found myself thinking that if I never walked into the store again I'd be fine with that. And I don't want to buy a BR player. Give me 1080 streaming and I'm yours.
I don't put any credit into this, Apple has been very stubbornly against the 100% cloud approach because the internet just isn't there & won't be fore some time. Many people can't afford the ridiculous prices of cable internet & with wireless broadband capped at 5GB per month the concept of an all cloud based TV would be a flop. It also doesn't fit at all with the current model of iPhone OS and would require a severe re-tooling of it.
I think it's far more likely that Apple would release iPhone OS for ATV (with upgrade pricing for current ATVs) to allow ATV users to take advantage of apps & the web.
How fast would my home Internet need to be to download 1080p?
A 90 minute Blu-Ray movie is at most about 40GB so this is 7.4MB/s = 60Mbits/s.
You get 50Mbit broadband in some areas but the real problem is sustained bandwidth. You may get 50Mbit for a minute or so but they won't let you have it for 90 minutes straight.
It doesn't have to have that high a bitrate though. 1x Blu-Ray is 36Mbits so you can easily get away with that.
720p should stream fine on 10Mbit broadband.
I think this is a perfect solution to ATV as it reduces the cost, power consumption and size of the unit. Just having a plug would be ideal.
If they said up pay-per-minute pricing up to a capped rate, that would be awesome. Like say you want to watch a part of a movie clip or TV show, you could be charged only for the minutes you watch. This way you can flip through as many movies to find something you like.
16GB of space is enough to store a couple of HD movies too if they get the bitrate low enough so it would function like an ATV in some cases.
The only concern would be the remote if it's a plug as it may be obscured but they could put an IR receiver on the cable or maybe use a different standard like bluetooth.
As you can see I immediately changed my feeling on the whole ebay issue and edited my post... I too am an admitted Apple horde... I have a few cubes (I think), a PPC laptop or 2... one or two old PPC powermac towers and a box-o-crap filled with ADB cables, Farallon phone-net connectors and assorted paraphernalia... I even have... GET THIS... A nubus QUICKTIME accelerator card (well the box for it anyway) that I just spotted in the attic. I saw it and said CRAP I gotta start throwing this stuff out!
Shame you are not in Florida we could join forces and have a stall
1.) This will probably have a camera. As a companion product to the video conferencing iPhone.
2.) App store has netflix. This device would run iPhone OS...
2a.) Netflix now supports iPad video adapter.
3.) It will have 802.11n and bluetooth using same chipset as iPad.
4.) Will probably support connectivity to iPhone/iPod Touch for remote wifi or bluetooth.
5.) I doubt it will stream 1080p. That seems over the top.
6.) Will not have blue-ray. Apple will never have Blue-ray. Blue-ray is a dead medium, long term. Streaming will replace it completely in the future.
You had me until that last little bit. I don't think that streaming will replace a physical medium (Blu-ray) for some time to come. Some people will always want something they can possess---not just stream. There will always be people who don't want to be connected to the internet to enjoy a movie. There will always be people who can't get a wide enough broadband connection to stream.
Blu-ray is backed by some huge players in electronics and entertainment. It is not going anywhere for quite some time. Apple may be smart not to adopt it (pushing people towards iTunes), but it is also frustrating.
People will be hard pressed to spend even $100 on a device whose main function is a storefront for renting and buying content.
Agreed. And much of the early-adopter crowd already have Blu-ray with access to movies and TV shows through over-the-internet services like Netflix and Amazon VOD. Apple knows this too, so I'm hoping an Apple TV relaunch means Apple will have the content deals worked out to provide a TV subscription package.
I would dump Comcast in a heartbeat for a $50-$75/month plan that looks something like this:
1. network and cable shows in HD with new episodes available the same night (or even the day after) they air with a liberal enough viewing window to catch up all episodes during a current season;
2. free access to a decent amount of previous seasons of TV shows (since I know the networks are never going to go for an everything-available-all-the-time approach);
3. streaming news, sports and special-event programming (even if you have to pay a little extra for say, MSNBC or Fox News); and
4. PPV movies priced competitively with Comcast and the various Blu-ray streaming services.
5. availability to stream or sync the same content to iTunes, iPhone, and iPad.
Apple will really have to zero in on No. 3 to turn Apple TV into a Comcast killer. I don't think a content subscription would gain much traction unless it allowed people to evaluate it against their cable or satellite service.
I would not pay more than $10 a month for a content package that does not include live MNSBC, CNBC, college football, and events like the Academy Awards, but I would pay $50-$75 a month for a content package that includes all of that because I would be dropping my cable service.
I gave my Sony TV away, because I have been waiting for an AppleTV.
I would not count on a TV from Apple. I think the smart thing to do is stay with the set top box since it much more akin to their current biz. The large screen HD TV biz is getting to be cut throat and I suspect it will get much tighter (good for consumer prices - bad for OEMs). I would like to see someone working as a partner with Apple to get OS X running in it instead of the crap we use now. I have a new top of the line Sony Bravia with built-in ethernet and the web stuff sucks - bad. And it is so sloooooooow to respond. It takes forever for the system to boot and respond even for simple things like controlling the volume. Also Sony does not know anything about how to do a menu system - same crap that is on the PlayStation AFAIKT. Apple could build add-on board to support the smarts of the TV and let Sony take the risk on the commodity side of things.
Don't misunderstand I would love to have a TV with a nice little Apple on the bezel - I just don't think it is the wisest thing to do (as a stock holder).
I think an full Apple branded TV is possible. Even a good idea. Imagine them competing at the same level as Bang & Olufsen. They have been creeping into home networked entertainment for years. Why not go the whole 9 yards. Much of what AirTunes does is like BeoLink. Add controllers for other devices, lighting, heating, etc. and you have a BeoLink drop in, and even at Apple's prices it would be cheaper than B&O.
No surprise here. Like some others, I had predicted such a move previously.
An ARM-based architecture running the iPhone OS (or hybrid) is the logical step in terms of developing applications, keeping costs down (and Apple's margins high), and providing a pleasant end user experience.
A $99 add-on device is far more easier to implement and distribute than trying to get TV manufacturers to put your technology in their products, plus Apple has total control over the hardware, software, and services. Joe Consumer can use the device on existing televisions; TVs have a much longer service life in respect to consumer electronics.
Comments
I completely agree with Cory's previous post on the iPad...yeah, it's selling really well, but i think that if what Cory wants (as do i) in future iPad (a standalone device) doesn't come to fruition soon, like in the Gen2 or Gen4, then sales will be flat for the next couple years. the people that buy new ones will be either previous iPad owners wanting to blow another 800 bucks for the latest and greatest or people (like me) who are finally giving in (which i haven't on the Apple TV yet)...mainly because we want one and don't see anything more compelling (i.e. settling for now).
Of course. If the iPad becomes stagnant, so will its sales. That goes without saying. Not sure if the need to become a standalone device though. I don't think computers are going to disappear anytime soon.
PS: Why not Gen3?
Yep Dave, I know you are right about selling, I just horde Apple stuff
As you can see I immediately changed my feeling on the whole ebay issue and edited my post... I too am an admitted Apple horde... I have a few cubes (I think), a PPC laptop or 2... one or two old PPC powermac towers and a box-o-crap filled with ADB cables, Farallon phone-net connectors and assorted paraphernalia... I even have... GET THIS... A nubus QUICKTIME accelerator card (well the box for it anyway) that I just spotted in the attic. I saw it and said CRAP I gotta start throwing this stuff out!
The biggest reason the iPad can't sell like hotcakes
Your predictions on what people will buy seem to be a little shaky. Based on later posts, even you bought an iPad.
Right? It's like some sort of mission to be perfectly incorrect in every post.
So no OS update to existing hardware possible ??
As the owner of 2 Apple TVs ... I feel your pain..
Considering it's gone through three rich updates without any additional cost and debuted BEFORE the original iPhone I'd say that nothing more than a minor bug update or compatibility update will be had, if that. 3+ years is more than adequate for free updates in my opinion and the HW is truly anemic at this point.
I hope that they use the TV's Take 3 UI, not the iPad's UI, for for this device. I also hope they have deals inked this time. I can't imagine they'd get it wrong the second time now that the platform has truly evolved into a specific direction and the tech is there to satisfy Apple's needs. Oh how things have changed in 3 years.
Yep Dave, I know you are right about selling, I just horde Apple stuff
Hmmm just thinking about this rumor... I have to wonder how many people WILL jump to sell their ATV now and cause a mini 'ebay panic' with everyone dropping ATV prices just so they can sell now before the new device comes out... Hey, what a great way to TRICK people into selling stuff CHEAP!
Maybe I need to float a rumor that a 1080p iPad that will go on sale next month for $199...
Hmm could I be that mean?
Does seem like it.
how is that really better than a small little box and a short cord.
Well, it had better be a small little box if you have a short cord.
Of course. If the iPad becomes stagnant, so will its sales. That goes without saying. Not sure if the need to become a standalone device though. I don't think computers are going to disappear anytime soon.
PS: Why not Gen3?
Apple usually doesn't do major product overhauls, one after another, it's usually at the 4th generation that they do anyting huge.
I think the future is for the flat panel of a laptop or a Desktop to be removable for travel. When you unplug it, it functions as the current iPad does, like an OS lite. But when plugged into the CPU, it back to a fully functioning Mac.
That's what i see as the future, hope Apple agrees.
http://www.iis.net/media/experiencesmoothstreaming1080p
But it's free. People will be hard pressed to spend even $100 on a device whose main function is a storefront for renting and buying content.
How do you figure it was free? The manufacturer doesn't add feature out of the goodness of their hearts. They included the costs of the features into the television. So I paid for it.
If you can afford a $2000 television then $100 isn't a stretch.
This device is a rumor so it may be something other than a storefront for iTunes. The Roko from Netflix is $100 yet people somehow manage to buy it. It has way more functionality than the AppleTV but in the long run will save the buyer. We'll have to wait and see what benefit and cost savings (if any) the AppleTV will provide in the future if this rumor turns out to be true.
Please, can we cut this BS out? All tech companies "borrow" ideas from other companies. ...
Yes, but not all tech companies demonstrate wanton disregard for IP law, or have the opportunity of sitting on the board of companies they hope to steal ideas from.
I hope this is also accompanied by an Home Server with at least 3x 3.5" drive bays running ARM and iPhone OS with a local Cocoa app access or WebKit-based UI. I think this would be a popular product as integrated home storage is a growing desire.
Agreed. Windows Home Server is a good product and I'd like Apple to produce something similar. Maybe take the Time Capsule and enhance it by adding extra drives bays and data duplication.
How fast would my home Internet need to be to download 1080p?
I was at blockbuster yesterday. Found myself thinking that if I never walked into the store again I'd be fine with that. And I don't want to buy a BR player. Give me 1080 streaming and I'm yours.
I don't put any credit into this, Apple has been very stubbornly against the 100% cloud approach because the internet just isn't there & won't be fore some time. Many people can't afford the ridiculous prices of cable internet & with wireless broadband capped at 5GB per month the concept of an all cloud based TV would be a flop. It also doesn't fit at all with the current model of iPhone OS and would require a severe re-tooling of it.
I think it's far more likely that Apple would release iPhone OS for ATV (with upgrade pricing for current ATVs) to allow ATV users to take advantage of apps & the web.
This is a bogus story, I don't buy any of it.
Apple usually doesn't do major product overhauls, one after another, it's usually at the 4th generation that they do anyting huge.
Alright, that makes sense.
How fast would my home Internet need to be to download 1080p?
A 90 minute Blu-Ray movie is at most about 40GB so this is 7.4MB/s = 60Mbits/s.
You get 50Mbit broadband in some areas but the real problem is sustained bandwidth. You may get 50Mbit for a minute or so but they won't let you have it for 90 minutes straight.
It doesn't have to have that high a bitrate though. 1x Blu-Ray is 36Mbits so you can easily get away with that.
720p should stream fine on 10Mbit broadband.
I think this is a perfect solution to ATV as it reduces the cost, power consumption and size of the unit. Just having a plug would be ideal.
If they said up pay-per-minute pricing up to a capped rate, that would be awesome. Like say you want to watch a part of a movie clip or TV show, you could be charged only for the minutes you watch. This way you can flip through as many movies to find something you like.
16GB of space is enough to store a couple of HD movies too if they get the bitrate low enough so it would function like an ATV in some cases.
The only concern would be the remote if it's a plug as it may be obscured but they could put an IR receiver on the cable or maybe use a different standard like bluetooth.
As you can see I immediately changed my feeling on the whole ebay issue and edited my post... I too am an admitted Apple horde... I have a few cubes (I think), a PPC laptop or 2... one or two old PPC powermac towers and a box-o-crap filled with ADB cables, Farallon phone-net connectors and assorted paraphernalia... I even have... GET THIS... A nubus QUICKTIME accelerator card (well the box for it anyway) that I just spotted in the attic. I saw it and said CRAP I gotta start throwing this stuff out!
Shame you are not in Florida we could join forces and have a stall
Just some thoughts.
1.) This will probably have a camera. As a companion product to the video conferencing iPhone.
2.) App store has netflix. This device would run iPhone OS...
2a.) Netflix now supports iPad video adapter.
3.) It will have 802.11n and bluetooth using same chipset as iPad.
4.) Will probably support connectivity to iPhone/iPod Touch for remote wifi or bluetooth.
5.) I doubt it will stream 1080p. That seems over the top.
6.) Will not have blue-ray. Apple will never have Blue-ray. Blue-ray is a dead medium, long term. Streaming will replace it completely in the future.
You had me until that last little bit. I don't think that streaming will replace a physical medium (Blu-ray) for some time to come. Some people will always want something they can possess---not just stream. There will always be people who don't want to be connected to the internet to enjoy a movie. There will always be people who can't get a wide enough broadband connection to stream.
Blu-ray is backed by some huge players in electronics and entertainment. It is not going anywhere for quite some time. Apple may be smart not to adopt it (pushing people towards iTunes), but it is also frustrating.
People will be hard pressed to spend even $100 on a device whose main function is a storefront for renting and buying content.
Agreed. And much of the early-adopter crowd already have Blu-ray with access to movies and TV shows through over-the-internet services like Netflix and Amazon VOD. Apple knows this too, so I'm hoping an Apple TV relaunch means Apple will have the content deals worked out to provide a TV subscription package.
I would dump Comcast in a heartbeat for a $50-$75/month plan that looks something like this:
1. network and cable shows in HD with new episodes available the same night (or even the day after) they air with a liberal enough viewing window to catch up all episodes during a current season;
2. free access to a decent amount of previous seasons of TV shows (since I know the networks are never going to go for an everything-available-all-the-time approach);
3. streaming news, sports and special-event programming (even if you have to pay a little extra for say, MSNBC or Fox News); and
4. PPV movies priced competitively with Comcast and the various Blu-ray streaming services.
5. availability to stream or sync the same content to iTunes, iPhone, and iPad.
Apple will really have to zero in on No. 3 to turn Apple TV into a Comcast killer. I don't think a content subscription would gain much traction unless it allowed people to evaluate it against their cable or satellite service.
I would not pay more than $10 a month for a content package that does not include live MNSBC, CNBC, college football, and events like the Academy Awards, but I would pay $50-$75 a month for a content package that includes all of that because I would be dropping my cable service.
I gave my Sony TV away, because I have been waiting for an AppleTV.
I would not count on a TV from Apple. I think the smart thing to do is stay with the set top box since it much more akin to their current biz. The large screen HD TV biz is getting to be cut throat and I suspect it will get much tighter (good for consumer prices - bad for OEMs). I would like to see someone working as a partner with Apple to get OS X running in it instead of the crap we use now. I have a new top of the line Sony Bravia with built-in ethernet and the web stuff sucks - bad. And it is so sloooooooow to respond. It takes forever for the system to boot and respond even for simple things like controlling the volume. Also Sony does not know anything about how to do a menu system - same crap that is on the PlayStation AFAIKT. Apple could build add-on board to support the smarts of the TV and let Sony take the risk on the commodity side of things.
Don't misunderstand I would love to have a TV with a nice little Apple on the bezel - I just don't think it is the wisest thing to do (as a stock holder).
I want an Apple OS in my (Philips) TV!!
I don't want another remote control
I don't want a new settop box
Apple should license (free of paid) its OS to TV manufactures...!!
Or - TVs should have a card slot/printboard where a small computer or OS can be inserted.
I agree completely. I just posted a note with similar thoughts before reading yours.
An ARM-based architecture running the iPhone OS (or hybrid) is the logical step in terms of developing applications, keeping costs down (and Apple's margins high), and providing a pleasant end user experience.
A $99 add-on device is far more easier to implement and distribute than trying to get TV manufacturers to put your technology in their products, plus Apple has total control over the hardware, software, and services. Joe Consumer can use the device on existing televisions; TVs have a much longer service life in respect to consumer electronics.