This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.
If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.
How many countries was the 3GS sold in? I seem to recall it was more than just the US last year.
Hmm, 5M? Seems doable. I can't imagine anyone phone selling that many units so quickly. If they do that that will probably outsell all Blackberries and Android phones for that quarter. I imagine the stock would reflect it in short order. $300/share isn't far away.
Are you referring to the number of 3Gs sold, or the newer version, the most current iPhone model, the iPhone 3GS? (big wink)
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
Are you referring to the number of 3Gs sold, or the newer version, the most current iPhone model, the iPhone 3GS? (big wink)
Yes, I mean the 2009 iPhone 3GS. See, it happens.
Quote:
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
I have no idea. I think NasserAE's 2M prediction through the weekend sounds pretty reasonable.
I have been reading a lot on forums about the Iphone-4 and it is very evident that this is going to be a record-smashing sales hit. Because of the huge press that Apple got from the "lost Iphone", a lot of people that may have had only a casual interest in Apple's latest creation are now wanting this phone. The NBC affiliate station where I live actually was following engadget's blog on the air during Steve's WWDC keynote as it was taking place during our mid-day newscast. I honestly cannot think of any item in recent history that has so many people, with such a large demographic, excited about it's release. I mean, this is truly like Christmas for many adults. Younger kids will be getting the Iphone hand-me-downs, or even new phones, due to the Facetime feature. When the younger ones are ready to buy their own phones, they will probably purchase an Iphone, not to mention many, many Mac computers and iPads. The Halo effect is going to only increase as long as Apple continues to make desirable products and gives incredible customer service.
As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
The only time Apple set goal for iPhones sale was for 2008 (10M) and they exceeded it. I don't remember Apple setting any sales goal for 2009. However, I do remember some analysts predicting very hight numbers.
I have no idea. I think NasserAE's 2M prediction through the weekend sounds pretty reasonable.
Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!
I'm preordering though, so I guess it doesn't matter if they have the ice cream. It is nice to have while waiting in line though
Well, I don't think you are reading me either. What I'm saying is that it *was* hard to get an iPhone in previous years, outside of the USA.
Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.
I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.
Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.
I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.
Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.
I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.
International sales passed US sales a couple of quarters ago and last quarter stood at 58%.
150 networks across ninety countries.
AT&T is becoming less and less important and the US is the main market for Android sales.
I predict that iPhone 4 will sell over a million on launch day firmly setting Android back in it's place.
Meanwhile in Australia all we have is "Late July", as I work in a phone store I will have mine before the doors open, I'm thinking white as a change from my black 3G.
Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
In other words, if preorders and sales to first-day customers double compared to last year, that alone will not double the figure Apple touts. For that figure, the number of outlets that Apple is launching in matters just as well. In that respect, we have two opposing trends this year:
1. Far fewer launch countries. iPhone 3GS launched in 20 countries last year. This year it's only 5 (including the US of course).
2. More 3rd party retailers at launch. In the US we have confirmation from Radio Shack and Walmart. Those two did not participate in the 3GS launch. That's hundreds of thousands of extra units Apple needs to fill their shelves.
If you add those 2 together, you will probably see a slight upward trend in terms of launch sales compared to last year, but nothing dramatic. The fact that Apple reduced the number of launch countries tells you that they don't even want anything dramatic. Doing bombastic, oversized launch sales is just an expensive way to get publicity. Apple won't need that anymore. They want to do a nice, clean launch in as many countries as they can handle and then keep the ball rolling with steady supply and more countries going online as soon as stock allows.
Instead of first day/first weekend, we should focus on quarterly sales as a measure of the iPhone 4's success. Last year, Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the June quarter. Can they do 10 million this year? I think they can.
International sales passed US sales a couple of quarters ago and last quarter stood at 58%.
150 networks across ninety countries.
AT&T is becoming less and less important and the US is the main market for Android sales.
AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.
They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?
I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.
I'm not denying that. I'm just explaining why it has to be that way. What would be the alternative? Apple not launching in the US, their homemarket, first, so there's more supply for other countries? A worldwide iPhone lottery, where one in 5 customers is "allowed" to buy a phone at launch? I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.
Personally, I'm one of the lucky few that live in one of the 5 launch countries this year (Germany), and my contract is up so I'd be eligible for the iPhone 4 in 2 weeks. Nevertheless, I've told myself to be strong and wait until the fall, when hopefully T-Mobile's exclusivity contract runs out. I'm prepared to wait until November, and in the meantime my iPhone 3G is still good enough.
I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.
True, but I can't help but be glad I'm in the US this year for the launch.
AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.
They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?
Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.
By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2.7 million of 8.75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.
Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.
I didn't realize the EU was so universal. Same power adapter, same governing bodies and a single import tax for all EU nations is much more organized than I would have thought.
Quote:
By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.
Since the iPhone only comes out once a year, it seems to me that you need to account for an entire year of sales to get an accurate picture of which countries and carriers are selling.
Comments
This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.
If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.
How many countries was the 3GS sold in? I seem to recall it was more than just the US last year.
Hmm, 5M? Seems doable. I can't imagine anyone phone selling that many units so quickly. If they do that that will probably outsell all Blackberries and Android phones for that quarter. I imagine the stock would reflect it in short order. $300/share isn't far away.
Yeah, some of us have.
In fact, I can see Russia from my iPhone!
Yeah, some of us have.
In fact, I can see Russia from my iPhone!
And two of the three million this month will be shipped to my house!
You're buying two million iPhones?
How many countries was the 3Gs sold in?
Are you referring to the number of 3Gs sold, or the newer version, the most current iPhone model, the iPhone 3GS?
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
Are you referring to the number of 3Gs sold, or the newer version, the most current iPhone model, the iPhone 3GS?
Yes, I mean the 2009 iPhone 3GS. See, it happens.
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
I have no idea. I think NasserAE's 2M prediction through the weekend sounds pretty reasonable.
As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.
On a more serious and fun note (related to the topic) - didn't Apple expect initial sales of 24M? I remember reading they were working to that number, but no idea over what period of time that was.
The only time Apple set goal for iPhones sale was for 2008 (10M) and they exceeded it. I don't remember Apple setting any sales goal for 2009. However, I do remember some analysts predicting very hight numbers.
Yes, I mean the 2009 iPhone 3GS. See, it happens.
I have no idea. I think NasserAE's 2M prediction through the weekend sounds pretty reasonable.
Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!
I'm preordering though, so I guess it doesn't matter if they have the ice cream. It is nice to have while waiting in line though
Well, I don't think you are reading me either.
Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.
I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.
Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.
I think Apple promised the fastest rollout ever. They want to launch 20 more countries in July and are going to be in all their 80+ existing markets by the end of September. Realistically, you couldn't ask for more, not from Apple or any other major electronics company.
Apple will launch with the usual 1 or 2 million units in a few countries first. You cannot ask them to put 5 million units into warehouses for a worldwide parallel launch without knowing how fast they're going to sell. That's not how consumer electronics are sold nowadays. Apple doesn't have warehouses. Items are to be produced just in time, and in such a tight channel producing too much is just as bad (costly) as producing too litte. I'd rather wait a few weeks than having to pay a $100 risk surcharge on my iPhone.
I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.
150 networks across ninety countries.
AT&T is becoming less and less important and the US is the main market for Android sales.
I predict that iPhone 4 will sell over a million on launch day firmly setting Android back in it's place.
Meanwhile in Australia all we have is "Late July", as I work in a phone store I will have mine before the doors open, I'm thinking white as a change from my black 3G.
Honestly, 2M through the weekend is completely underestimating, IMHO. The 15th is a Tuesday. Over 1M launch day (preorders, if the website can handle it.) They better have free Ben and Jerry's for the 24th!
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
In other words, if preorders and sales to first-day customers double compared to last year, that alone will not double the figure Apple touts. For that figure, the number of outlets that Apple is launching in matters just as well. In that respect, we have two opposing trends this year:
1. Far fewer launch countries. iPhone 3GS launched in 20 countries last year. This year it's only 5 (including the US of course).
2. More 3rd party retailers at launch. In the US we have confirmation from Radio Shack and Walmart. Those two did not participate in the 3GS launch. That's hundreds of thousands of extra units Apple needs to fill their shelves.
If you add those 2 together, you will probably see a slight upward trend in terms of launch sales compared to last year, but nothing dramatic. The fact that Apple reduced the number of launch countries tells you that they don't even want anything dramatic. Doing bombastic, oversized launch sales is just an expensive way to get publicity. Apple won't need that anymore. They want to do a nice, clean launch in as many countries as they can handle and then keep the ball rolling with steady supply and more countries going online as soon as stock allows.
Instead of first day/first weekend, we should focus on quarterly sales as a measure of the iPhone 4's success. Last year, Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the June quarter. Can they do 10 million this year? I think they can.
International sales passed US sales a couple of quarters ago and last quarter stood at 58%.
150 networks across ninety countries.
AT&T is becoming less and less important and the US is the main market for Android sales.
AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.
They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?
I understand what you are saying. 88 countries by the end of September is pretty damn fast. And one can assume that the speed of these rollouts indicates that Apple is pretty sure it can produce enough product to have many more units available per month than it did last year, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
Prof. Peabody's point still holds. Even if they are producing 2x or 3x as many units per month this time around, if the demand outstrips supply again then those of in the US may have trouble getting an iPhone and if that is the case, then those outside the country may have even more trouble.
I'm not denying that. I'm just explaining why it has to be that way. What would be the alternative? Apple not launching in the US, their homemarket, first, so there's more supply for other countries? A worldwide iPhone lottery, where one in 5 customers is "allowed" to buy a phone at launch? I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.
Personally, I'm one of the lucky few that live in one of the 5 launch countries this year (Germany), and my contract is up so I'd be eligible for the iPhone 4 in 2 weeks. Nevertheless, I've told myself to be strong and wait until the fall, when hopefully T-Mobile's exclusivity contract runs out. I'm prepared to wait until November, and in the meantime my iPhone 3G is still good enough.
International sales passed US sales a couple of quarters ago and last quarter stood at 58%.
150 networks across ninety countries.
So 95% of the worlds population account for 58% of their sales.....
I say instead of freaking out and being mad at Apple or the Americans or whatever, one should stay calm, look at the realities of industrial production and remind oneself that it's after all just a phone.
True, but I can't help but be glad I'm in the US this year for the launch.
AT&T and the US still buy considerably more iPhones than other carrier or country. I think makes AT&T and the US pretty important to Apple when they focus on iPhone sales.
They may even get more profit from US sales due to the size of the country with nationwide cellular coverage (sans Alaska) and the number of units being sold here. Does the EU have a single iPhone for all participating nations or does each new country have it's own import laws, FCC-like regulations, packaging, etc. that have to be dealt with?
Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.
By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2.7 million of 8.75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.
True, but I can't help but be glad I'm in the US this year for the launch.
International customers should show Apple how the cow eats the cabbage.
Boycott the iPhone 4!
Buy an iPad instead! ;-)
Nope, single market since the early 90s. As for packaging, Apple has to change a few stickers on the box and the manuals. That cost will be minimal. Currency is obviously still an issue in some places.
I didn't realize the EU was so universal. Same power adapter, same governing bodies and a single import tax for all EU nations is much more organized than I would have thought.
By the way, AFAIR AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %.
Since the iPhone only comes out once a year, it seems to me that you need to account for an entire year of sales to get an accurate picture of which countries and carriers are selling.