I didn't realize the EU was so universal. Same power adapter, same governing bodies and a single import tax for all EU nations is much more organized than I would have thought.
Power plugs are a real issue, I forgot about those. Regulation and customs are uniform.
Quote:
Since the iPhone only comes out once a year, it seems to me that you need to account for an entire year of sales to get an accurate picture of which countries and carriers are selling.
I don't agree. Grouping by year is not appropriate for such a young product and does not show the most recent trends. AT&T's share is down, both quarter over quarter and year over year:
Q4-08: 1.9 of 4.4 million = 44 %
Q1-09: 1.6 of 3.8 million = 42 %
Q4-09: 3.1 of 8.7 million = 35 %
Q1-10: 2.7 of 8.8 million = 31 %
There is a clear trend of Apple adding more countries and more carriers within those countries and sometimes becoming surprisingly successful, eg in France, the UK and South Korea, while in the US the iPhone clearly hit a ceiling among AT&T customers (15 % of AT&T customers are already on iPhone) and AT&T's reputation went way down with Verizon's aggressive marketing campaign.
The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege. If the US share stays above 40 % by the end of the year it will be because of a Verizon launch and inspite of AT&T.
AT&T's share is down, both quarter over quarter and year over year
Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?
Quote:
The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege.
Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter. Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.
Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?
But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.
Quote:
Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter.
I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.
Quote:
Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends
If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?
Quote:
...but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.
Am I? If you want to compare yearly figures, you would have to calculate trailing twelve months figures for each quarter, ie 12 months to Dec'08, 12 months to Mar'09 etc.. Otherwise you would only have 2 figures to compare: calendar 2008 and calendar 2009, which is mightly little data to compile a stat with.
So what's wrong with quarters? Everybody is using quarters. I wouldn't compare launch to non-launch quarters, but equal quarters can and must be compared. And any way you slice it, AT&T share has gone down from about 45 % to about 33 %.
Maybe I'm just getting you wrong. In your opinion, what are the meaningful data points regarding AT&T's share? Do they show a decline or not?
But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.
Of course it is, but it's not a US or ATT& v International situation. The US and AT&T are still the largest consumer base, by a long shot than any other single country or AT&T. That is what is relevant.
Quote:
I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.
If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?
You puledl a single quarter that is 1/2 to 3/4 through a release cycle when other carriers outside the US came on board with the iPhone for the first time and stated, "By the way, [...] AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %." as if that single quarter is representative of the entire year of iPhone sales or a trend. You're stating the truth, but you aren't being truthful.
YoY quarterly sales show a trend, but you pulled a single quarter to say that AT&T is falling away from the initial sales back in 2007. Sure, of course they are, but that has no barring on the important of AT&T and the US as the single most important customer base to Apple then and now. Name one other country or carrier that is selling more iPhones than the US or AT&T. Nada, so you pulling a single wonky data point that is being compared to no other.
The only logical metrics are taking the stats from every quarter the current iPhone was sold in and then dividing by four to get an accurate percentage of how AT&T did with this current iPhone or taking YoY quarters to show a trend. How can you say these are less accurate than simply taking a single quarter or an annually released product? It makes no sense.
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero. The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero. The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.
I think we're getting a bit off course. You have clarified that you don't disagree with what I said, so let me do the same: I was not trying to show that a single other country is getting more important for Apple than the US and I was not implying that 30 % is the annual share. Acceptable? ;-)
...and as a bonus, because I just spent the time to compile the data, here's the trailing twelve months figures for the most recent quarters.
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
"Near zero" being a few hundred thousand when you ship to tens of thousands of outlets all over the world.
Quote:
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero.
Um no, you just had to make a reservation and wait for a week or so, depending on which device you wanted. There were usually at least some configurations available (16, 32 or 64 GB).
Quote:
The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
AFAIR it was sold out in half of the US Apple Stores. There was no such general claim for AT&T stores or international channels.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.
Like any other company, Apple has to report what they sold, and that is what they sold to the people who payed them, their retail or carrier partners, unless they were direct sales in Apple Stores or the online Apple Store. This is called "Sell-in".
"Sell-through" means "sold to consumers, either by yourself or your retail partners". Sell-through figures are optional, and indeed Tim Cook started providing some for the iPhone in late 2008. However, sell-through is not in the press releases and fiscal reports of Apple, and it's not what usually gets bandied about.
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
And there's another US carrier that can handle traffic at an "iPhone" level?
And don't say "Verizon" unless you're living in 2013.
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
I thought Apple's numbers were based on sold, not shipped to carrier partners. In other words, actual activated phones.
Won't take long to sell 3M IPHONE 4s as many people are up for renewal. New 'facechat' feature will encourage parents to give IPHONES to their kids (more business for APPLE, Steve jobs is the greatest marketer in the world.) Don't be surprised if 3m doesn't satisfy the intial demand.
I have been reading a lot on forums about the Iphone-4 and it is very evident that this is going to be a record-smashing sales hit. Because of the huge press that Apple got from the "lost Iphone", a lot of people that may have had only a casual interest in Apple's latest creation are now wanting this phone. The NBC affiliate station where I live actually was following engadget's blog on the air during Steve's WWDC keynote as it was taking place during our mid-day newscast. I honestly cannot think of any item in recent history that has so many people, with such a large demographic, excited about it's release. I mean, this is truly like Christmas for many adults. Younger kids will be getting the Iphone hand-me-downs, or even new phones, due to the Facetime feature. When the younger ones are ready to buy their own phones, they will probably purchase an Iphone, not to mention many, many Mac computers and iPads. The Halo effect is going to only increase as long as Apple continues to make desirable products and gives incredible customer service.
As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.
the new iphone could be sold from lost store underwater and still BE the the all time top selling smart phone
IT IS A two way VIDEO PHONE no just a voice phone .,
it also sports 3 or 4 more great things
THIS dick tracey style video phone just smashed all other phones ....
android is 5 yrs behind now ...
and apple/ATT lowered the price of the phone..overall that is .
the ipad is next with video calling
and nano >>> mbp will soon follow
apple users will be super connected to each other and the world
any great news item or elected official gaffe will now be streamed live from some bodies iphone 4 !!!!
the new iphone could be sold from lost store underwater and still BE the the all time top selling smart phone
IT IS A two way VIDEO PHONE no just a voice phone .,
it also sports 3 or 4 more great things
THIS dick tracey style video phone just smashed all other phones ....
android is 5 yrs behind now ...
and apple/ATT lowered the price of the phone..overall that is .
the ipad is next with video calling
and nano >>> mbp will soon follow
<...>
9
Really? ...
My Powerbooks and Macbooks have had a little thing called iChat for years ... and this "video phone" only works on WiFi, so it's really no improvement for me.
AT&T made it cheaper because with more subscribers their customers will be even _less_ connected than they already are and they limit their data plan sizes to be able to minimize the damage.
I love Appletech (typing this on my iPad), but as long as At&t is the only option in the US, iPhone usability remains marginal, and I won't buy one.
I doubt it. The article indicates that Apple appears to be on track with producing enough iPhones to roughly equal the highest selling quarter.
The problem with the iPad is that A.) Apple had no historical data on which to base manufacturing forecasts, and B.) availability of the large 10" IPS display was constrained (Apple even second-sourced the part).
For the iPhone, I'm guessing that availability of the "Retina Display" panel will be the limiting factor.
With iPhone revenue so much of Apple's bottom line, I will put my trust in Apple's senior management team that they know what they're doing. After all, I'm a longtime AAPL shareholder and they have consistently shown an ability to increase shareholder value.
No sense in me playing armchair CEO. It is unlikely that I would do any better than Steve.
What do you say now cvaldes?? This phone is going to smash the results of previous iPhones.
Comments
I didn't realize the EU was so universal. Same power adapter, same governing bodies and a single import tax for all EU nations is much more organized than I would have thought.
Power plugs are a real issue, I forgot about those. Regulation and customs are uniform.
Since the iPhone only comes out once a year, it seems to me that you need to account for an entire year of sales to get an accurate picture of which countries and carriers are selling.
I don't agree. Grouping by year is not appropriate for such a young product and does not show the most recent trends. AT&T's share is down, both quarter over quarter and year over year:
Q4-08: 1.9 of 4.4 million = 44 %
Q1-09: 1.6 of 3.8 million = 42 %
Q4-09: 3.1 of 8.7 million = 35 %
Q1-10: 2.7 of 8.8 million = 31 %
There is a clear trend of Apple adding more countries and more carriers within those countries and sometimes becoming surprisingly successful, eg in France, the UK and South Korea, while in the US the iPhone clearly hit a ceiling among AT&T customers (15 % of AT&T customers are already on iPhone) and AT&T's reputation went way down with Verizon's aggressive marketing campaign.
The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege. If the US share stays above 40 % by the end of the year it will be because of a Verizon launch and inspite of AT&T.
AT&T's share is down, both quarter over quarter and year over year
Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?
The only reason why AT&T's share will go up this and next quarter is because they get the launch privilege.
Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter. Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.
Of course it will. Why it be going up with the iPhone coming online in more countries and more carriers around the world?
But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.
Again, of course, which is why I stated that you have to look at the year of sales for a device that is released annually, not a single quarter.
I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.
Note that you disagreed with my comment about looking at annual sales trends over quarterly trends
If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?
...but are proving my point with the statement quoted above.
Am I? If you want to compare yearly figures, you would have to calculate trailing twelve months figures for each quarter, ie 12 months to Dec'08, 12 months to Mar'09 etc.. Otherwise you would only have 2 figures to compare: calendar 2008 and calendar 2009, which is mightly little data to compile a stat with.
So what's wrong with quarters? Everybody is using quarters. I wouldn't compare launch to non-launch quarters, but equal quarters can and must be compared. And any way you slice it, AT&T share has gone down from about 45 % to about 33 %.
Maybe I'm just getting you wrong. In your opinion, what are the meaningful data points regarding AT&T's share? Do they show a decline or not?
But wasn't that the original point of contention? Is the prominence of the US market currently declining? Clearly it is.
Of course it is, but it's not a US or ATT& v International situation. The US and AT&T are still the largest consumer base, by a long shot than any other single country or AT&T. That is what is relevant.
I don't follow that logic. If the release date was at different times of the year, then what you demand makes sense, but the way Apple releases, Q1-09 was just as far from the most recent release as Q1-10 was. Both quarters had the same attributes on the plateau of Apple's annual cycle.
If you can provide meaningful annual figures, I'd welcome them. But since you did not offer any other figures, your remark seemed more of a way to disregard the results of Q1, no?
You puledl a single quarter that is 1/2 to 3/4 through a release cycle when other carriers outside the US came on board with the iPhone for the first time and stated, "By the way, [...] AT&T sold only 2,7 million of 8,75 million iPhones in the first quarter. That's just 30 %." as if that single quarter is representative of the entire year of iPhone sales or a trend. You're stating the truth, but you aren't being truthful.
YoY quarterly sales show a trend, but you pulled a single quarter to say that AT&T is falling away from the initial sales back in 2007. Sure, of course they are, but that has no barring on the important of AT&T and the US as the single most important customer base to Apple then and now. Name one other country or carrier that is selling more iPhones than the US or AT&T. Nada, so you pulling a single wonky data point that is being compared to no other.
The only logical metrics are taking the stats from every quarter the current iPhone was sold in and then dividing by four to get an accurate percentage of how AT&T did with this current iPhone or taking YoY quarters to show a trend. How can you say these are less accurate than simply taking a single quarter or an annually released product? It makes no sense.
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero. The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero. The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.
...and as a bonus, because I just spent the time to compile the data, here's the trailing twelve months figures for the most recent quarters.
AT&T's share of worldwide iPhones sold:
Oct 2008 to Sep 2009: 44 %
Jan 2009 to Dec 2009: 41 %
Apr 2009 to Mar 2010: 38 %
Most of the Apple iDevices sold so well that store stock was near zero. The original iPhone was probably the sole exception because of its high price, but even there, the stock level wasn't very high.
"Near zero" being a few hundred thousand when you ship to tens of thousands of outlets all over the world.
For the iPad, for example, you couldn't find one in a store for weeks (or more), so stock was zero.
Um no, you just had to make a reservation and wait for a week or so, depending on which device you wanted. There were usually at least some configurations available (16, 32 or 64 GB).
The iPhone 3GS was certainly the same way.
AFAIR it was sold out in half of the US Apple Stores. There was no such general claim for AT&T stores or international channels.
And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.
Like any other company, Apple has to report what they sold, and that is what they sold to the people who payed them, their retail or carrier partners, unless they were direct sales in Apple Stores or the online Apple Store. This is called "Sell-in".
"Sell-through" means "sold to consumers, either by yourself or your retail partners". Sell-through figures are optional, and indeed Tim Cook started providing some for the iPhone in late 2008. However, sell-through is not in the press releases and fiscal reports of Apple, and it's not what usually gets bandied about.
Americans or so US centred! Have you ever heard of "the rest of the world?"
Teckshmuck... is that you?
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
And there's another US carrier that can handle traffic at an "iPhone" level?
And don't say "Verizon" unless you're living in 2013.
What people don't realize about Apple's launch figures for the iPhone: Those millions are what Apple delivered to carrier partners, not necessarily what end customers bought. Even if stock is tight after the launch weekend, there are still several 100.000 units in store somewhere.
I thought Apple's numbers were based on sold, not shipped to carrier partners. In other words, actual activated phones.
At least we can spell.
no no
centred is a new word i swear
it means central of the galactic universe star fighter group
I have been reading a lot on forums about the Iphone-4 and it is very evident that this is going to be a record-smashing sales hit. Because of the huge press that Apple got from the "lost Iphone", a lot of people that may have had only a casual interest in Apple's latest creation are now wanting this phone. The NBC affiliate station where I live actually was following engadget's blog on the air during Steve's WWDC keynote as it was taking place during our mid-day newscast. I honestly cannot think of any item in recent history that has so many people, with such a large demographic, excited about it's release. I mean, this is truly like Christmas for many adults. Younger kids will be getting the Iphone hand-me-downs, or even new phones, due to the Facetime feature. When the younger ones are ready to buy their own phones, they will probably purchase an Iphone, not to mention many, many Mac computers and iPads. The Halo effect is going to only increase as long as Apple continues to make desirable products and gives incredible customer service.
As for the Android phones, most hardware manufactures do not make other computer devices for people to purchase due to a possible halo effect. Netbooks and tablets will soon show up, but brand loyalty will be low. Moto-Droid users may buy an HTC or Archos tablet. As long as Apple continues to give the consumer a great user experience, that happy consumer will only have Apple as their choice if they want other products with similar quality.
the new iphone could be sold from lost store underwater and still BE the the all time top selling smart phone
IT IS A two way VIDEO PHONE no just a voice phone .,
it also sports 3 or 4 more great things
THIS dick tracey style video phone just smashed all other phones ....
android is 5 yrs behind now ...
and apple/ATT lowered the price of the phone..overall that is .
the ipad is next with video calling
and nano >>> mbp will soon follow
apple users will be super connected to each other and the world
any great news item or elected official gaffe will now be streamed live from some bodies iphone 4 !!!!
the apple revolution just began
9
And Apple isn't like other companies, for as long as I can remember they report on items SOLD, not items SHIPPED.
are you sure ???
apple reports items shipped
nothing gets returned anyway sp both sets of figures in the end are true
no ??
i am buying my first iphone now
the netflix app sold me
i will get a verizon mifi card to boost the wifis
the new iphone could be sold from lost store underwater and still BE the the all time top selling smart phone
IT IS A two way VIDEO PHONE no just a voice phone .,
it also sports 3 or 4 more great things
THIS dick tracey style video phone just smashed all other phones ....
android is 5 yrs behind now ...
and apple/ATT lowered the price of the phone..overall that is .
the ipad is next with video calling
and nano >>> mbp will soon follow
<...>
9
Really? ...
My Powerbooks and Macbooks have had a little thing called iChat for years ... and this "video phone" only works on WiFi, so it's really no improvement for me.
AT&T made it cheaper because with more subscribers their customers will be even _less_ connected than they already are and they limit their data plan sizes to be able to minimize the damage.
I love Appletech (typing this on my iPad), but as long as At&t is the only option in the US, iPhone usability remains marginal, and I won't buy one.
Just my 2c
This phone will be harder to get than an ipad.
I doubt it. The article indicates that Apple appears to be on track with producing enough iPhones to roughly equal the highest selling quarter.
The problem with the iPad is that A.) Apple had no historical data on which to base manufacturing forecasts, and B.) availability of the large 10" IPS display was constrained (Apple even second-sourced the part).
For the iPhone, I'm guessing that availability of the "Retina Display" panel will be the limiting factor.
With iPhone revenue so much of Apple's bottom line, I will put my trust in Apple's senior management team that they know what they're doing. After all, I'm a longtime AAPL shareholder and they have consistently shown an ability to increase shareholder value.
No sense in me playing armchair CEO. It is unlikely that I would do any better than Steve.
What do you say now cvaldes?? This phone is going to smash the results of previous iPhones.
And it's that hard to add CDMA in the iPhone? Don't tell Apple, they probably have had CDMA prototypes since Day 1.
Any difficulty won?t come from the design process.