Verizon could sell 12M iPhones a year, but don't 'pop the champagne'

13»

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    An LTE only iPhone is years away. An LTE phone from Verizon would also have to support CDMA.



    An LTE phone with Verizon isn't years away. With Mobile broadband cards & the upcoming Google Tablets it's a few months away. Except to start seeing LTE handsets starting with Blackberry, HTC, ETC perhaps as early as DEC. 6-15 mbs per second, not bad.



    An LTE iphone, if the qualcomm chip is real & finalized would have Dual CDMA (55 countries use this)/GSM, Dual 3g/4g/LTE.



    So far, This is the closet i've seen the rumor make traction on a business sense. Why would a company not want to introduce an iconic phone and settle for just the 3g Version? Besides Verizon, China UNICOM as well as VODAPONE will be introducing LTE in the same time frame.
  • Reply 42 of 60
    nceencee Posts: 857member
    It doesn't have to be a big or small up-grade! Just having the iPhone available from another source will be a big enough up-grade for most folks.



    Skip
  • Reply 43 of 60
    lilgto64lilgto64 Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post


    Is this factoring in the people who would leave AT&T?

    Apple would not gain a sale, it would simply be sold via a different carrier.



    Maybe - I think they were looking at 12 million iPhones out of 65 million total AT&T customers could translate to 12 million iPhones out of 85 million total Verizon customers.



    Or in other words - that there are potentially 12 million current Verizon customers who would like to have an iPhone but are not willing to change networks to get it.



    There should be pretty good numbers on how many left Verizon or other carriers to get an iPhone - meaning that number of AT&T customers would be prime candidates for leaving AT&T.
  • Reply 44 of 60
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by theobold View Post


    An LTE phone with Verizon isn't years away. With Mobile broadband cards & the upcoming Google Tablets it's a few months away. Except to start seeing LTE handsets starting with Blackberry, HTC, ETC perhaps as early as DEC. 6-15 mbs per second, not bad.



    If these phones were coming to market in 5.5 months would there not be any evidence of this? These companies aren't secretive like Apple and I've seen no info on these chips being in phones in the state. Furthermore, carriers in other countries who have been supporting LTE longer than Verizon still don't offer any LTE phones, as far as I can tell. If there are any, please link to the carriers, phones and/or chips used.



    Quote:

    An LTE iphone, if the qualcomm chip is real & finalized would have Dual CDMA (55 countries use this)/GSM, Dual 3g/4g/LTE.



    You can't just keep adding to a chip and expect it to be as small and power efficient as before. I'e seen no evidence of such a chip ready for the market. You can look at the GSM/3GSM/CDMA/CDAM2000 "World Mode" chips to see how inefficient they are. They don't even offer the UMTS operating bands that make it a real "World Mode phone. In the US, on Verizon, the bands for North American UMTS are not included.



    There will be a time when you can add multiple radio types and spectrums to a single small and efficient chip but I have seen no evidence that that time is upon us.



    Quote:

    So far, This is the closet i've seen the rumor make traction on a business sense. Why would a company not want to introduce an iconic phone and settle for just the 3g Version? Besides Verizon, China UNICOM as well as VODAPONE will be introducing LTE in the same time frame.



    You had me going there. I thought you were making a serious post, but now you are stating the iPhone isn't iconic unless it offers LTE. Seriously?!
  • Reply 45 of 60
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    With LTE right around the corner - and Verizon recently joining the GSMA board - I would think that some sort of LTE compatible iPhone mid year 2011 is more likely



    It would still be locked to ATT. We have documented proof that the deal is 5 years. And nada that it can be adjusted, has or will be. Or that the deal was for GSM only phones.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bcode View Post


    [*]AT&T doesn't get 'inspired', nor does it offer freebies for no good reason - for this, I'm convinced that the move to allow newer subscribers to upgrade to the iPhone 4 is a last ditch effort to sign as many 2 year contracts as possible.



    They pulled the same move last year. and the year before. in fact, anyone with ATT knows that they will put up the upgrade date to as early as 16 months depending on your current phone and current plan. Especially if you are going dumb to smart phone cause they can get that forced data plan in there.



    Quote:

    [*]Apple tries to stay on a release schedule, but has been known to update products on a whim if the market pushes hard enough. It's my opinion that Apple would gladly release a 'tweaked' version of the iPhone 4 to sell on the Verizon network, especially if that means doubling their selling power overnight.



    the legal issues of dominating the market and the issue that right now Verizon means making a second line up of CDMA phones would dispute that guess. Also, if they were A-OK with CDMA why didn't they release it in the Asian markets where it's neck and neck if not greater than GSM (and ATT doesn't matter)



    Quote:

    [*]2011 marks the 4 year mark for the Apple/AT&T relationshit... Since the US works on 2 year contracts, it would seem logical that the original exclusivity deal was for 2 full contract terms (or 4 years).



    Court documents show that it's a 5 year contract.



    Quote:

    [*]Apple has publically rediculed AT&T several times over this last year - they are in just as much of a hurry to get away from AT&T as you are.



    There have been some subtly snark comments. But also a number of flat out "we love ATT, we love this relationship"



    And besides, just cause the ATT deal has been less than awesome doesn't mean they would go with Verizon. they might unlock, stay GSM and adjust to support T-Mobile. Or T-Mobile might adjust to support the iphone specs.



    Quote:

    [*]Apple is liberally leaking documents that suggest the exclusivity will last, at least, another year - a typical misdirection move (or legitimate cause for concern).



    Or it is equally plausible that those alleged sources at Apple were not and someone is talking out of their 'hats'
  • Reply 46 of 60
    wigginwiggin Posts: 2,265member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    With LTE right around the corner - and Verizon recently joining the GSMA board - I would think that some sort of LTE compatible iPhone mid year 2011 is more likely - that way production and sales of the next gen iPhone could coincide with the deployment of LTE - just a matter of synchronizing those two schedules - and perhaps in part AT&Ts plans to move to LTE.



    AT&Ts move to allow early updates could be nothing more than increasing the pool of potential buyers for new hardware.



    It would still need to support CDMA. An LTE only phone would be all must useless for several years. It's not as if Verizon can flip a switch and deploy LTE nationwide overnight. CDMA will need to be supported on all Verizon phones for at least a couple more years while the buid-out takes place.
  • Reply 47 of 60
    I do believe an iPhone on Verizon is inevitable. I believe this report has a good chance of being true. My only question is like the analyst, what happens to the new iPhone schedule. It's every summer.



    If Apple introduces a CDMA version of the iPhone 4, would the iPhone 5 also be out for CDMA when June '11 comes around? So would it even be worth it to get the ViPhone in January with a 2 year contract when in only 6 months you would have a new version. Or would Apple always be introducing CDMA iphones in January and GSM ones in June, in which case I'm not sure Verizon customers would appreciate that. Seems like the best route for Apple would be to introduce a ViPhone in 3 months' time, not in January and then upgrade them all in June.
  • Reply 48 of 60
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    I guess selling 1.7 million phones in the first week or so shows no interest in selling hardware.



    Minor correction. 1.7 phones in the first 3 days.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    Apple asked the FCC for a 45-day(?) blackout period concerning FCC registration documents. There's a slight chance that the iPhone 4 has the 5-frequency 3G chip and may be poised to release the handset on T-Mobile USA in the not-too-distant future



    If such a chip was in the iphone 4, the blackout would be moot. cause someone, somewhere has unlocked the phone by now and would report high and low that it runs on t-mobile 3g.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post


    I do believe an iPhone on Verizon is inevitable



    Sure, after the 5 year deal is over and when Verizon supports the tech that Apple choses to put in the phone.



    the fallacy is to believe that Apple will make CDMA to make Verizon happy and that it will happen before the confirmed 5 year period.
  • Reply 49 of 60
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post


    I do believe an iPhone on Verizon is inevitable. I believe this report has a good chance of being true. My only question is like the analyst, what happens to the new iPhone schedule. It's every summer.



    If Apple introduces a CDMA version of the iPhone 4, would the iPhone 5 also be out for CDMA when June '11 comes around? So would it even be worth it to get the ViPhone in January with a 2 year contract when in only 6 months you would have a new version. Or would Apple always be introducing CDMA iphones in January and GSM ones in June, in which case I'm not sure Verizon customers would appreciate that. Seems like the best route for Apple would be to introduce a ViPhone in 3 months' time, not in January and then upgrade them all in June.



    That's a big part of the issue with a Verizon phone. They have sold out for the last 3 years and have had supply constraints like no other vendor has seen. Even this year they dropped from 18(?) countries to 5 countries and they sold out even faster.



    There is no way they could do a CDMA iPhone on Verizon along with the GSM iPhone for AT&T at the same time. Staggering them 6 months apart is the only thing about yesterday's Bloomberg report that sounds realistic at this point.



    I'm not sure 3 months is doable when they aren't even going to hit 88 countries until sometime in September with the holidays right after that. Verizon customers would affect that and I'm not sure they could have the necessary production in place for this year. Waiting until right after the holidays makes the most sense to me.



    But there is one caveat, they need to announce it at least a few months ahead of time. Maybe at the iPod/iTunes special event in September. After all, they have added an operating band used by Japan's largest carrier, NTT docomo, and have yet to list it on their spec sheets or announce them as a carrier.



    Personally, I wish all new iPhones would be released in the US first and then to other countries later. Actually, I wish all new iPhones would be released first in whatever country I have to be in at the time. There... that's better!
  • Reply 50 of 60
    aiaddictaiaddict Posts: 487member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    So you think Verizon can basically build out enough new infrastructure in two years to at least match AT&T?



    Based on what?



    I never made any comparison to AT&T or any comment on AT&T's LTE rollout schedule. Verizon has the slowest data network in the US right now, and they desperately need to get on LTE before Joe Consumer figures that out and their long fought for network reputation evaporates. They are pushing LTE as fast as they possibly can.



    Quote:

    Also remember that the GSM based LTE technology Verizon will be moving to doest carry as well as CDMA so they will need more towers - and getting new tower sites is non-trivial on multiple levels.



    If verizon eliminates the need for CDMA in 80% of their current coverage area in five years from their first LTE deployment I will be amazed. And that's probably laughably aggressive.



    You need to do some reading. Verizons (and AT&T) rollout of LTE on the 700mhz C band should carry better than CDMA on the 850 mhz band.



    They will likely have about 200 million people covered by LTE 12 months from now. More in 24 months. By the end of 2011 their LTE network will be bigger than Sprint or T-Mobils 2g/3g/wimax networks. I have no idea when they will have VoLTE rolled out so you do not need CDMA, but it is very possible to do in 2 years if the standards are set and the hardware available. The hold up will be the ability to integrate IP based LTE voice with the traditional voice network. The towers and radios will be in place and they will be carrying IP data.
  • Reply 51 of 60
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    I swear, Verizon reminds me of the prom queen the day after the prom.



    They just don't understand that their moment in the spotlight is over.
  • Reply 52 of 60
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post


    You need to do some reading. Verizons (and AT&T) rollout of LTE on the 700mhz C band should carry better than CDMA on the 850 mhz band.



    Carry farther? From what I know about waves shorter waves penetrate easier but longer waves carry farther. Then there are inherent differences between the air interfaces that make ideal and usable tower spacing vary considerably, even if using the same frequency.
  • Reply 53 of 60
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bcode View Post


    I hate to stir the waters but given all the facts of late, I'm almost a believer of the January Verizon iPhone. Here's why:
    1. AT&T doesn't get 'inspired', nor does it offer freebies for no good reason - for this, I'm convinced that the move to allow newer subscribers to upgrade to the iPhone 4 is a last ditch effort to sign as many 2 year contracts as possible.

    2. Apple tries to stay on a release schedule, but has been known to update products on a whim if the market pushes hard enough. It's my opinion that Apple would gladly release a 'tweaked' version of the iPhone 4 to sell on the Verizon network, especially if that means doubling their selling power overnight.

    3. 2011 marks the 4 year mark for the Apple/AT&T relationshit... Since the US works on 2 year contracts, it would seem logical that the original exclusivity deal was for 2 full contract terms (or 4 years).

    4. Apple has publically rediculed AT&T several times over this last year - they are in just as much of a hurry to get away from AT&T as you are.

    5. Apple is liberally leaking documents that suggest the exclusivity will last, at least, another year - a typical misdirection move (or legitimate cause for concern).




    This is the most logical analysis of the situation I've seen. If you can set aside the rumors (and especially the expressed frustration with the rumors not coming true) for a moment, and look at the facts, the pretty much inescapable conclusion is that the question isn't if Apple will sell on the Verizon network, it's when. Apple isn't leaving money on the table for no reason, and especially not just to annoy people. The moment they are able to make a play for that money, they are going to make that play. Count on it.
  • Reply 54 of 60
    aiaddictaiaddict Posts: 487member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Carry farther? From what I know about waves shorter waves penetrate easier but longer waves carry farther. Then there are inherent differences between the air interfaces that make ideal and usable tower spacing vary considerably, even if using the same frequency.



    There are a lot of variables, but in general, the longer wave lengths (lower mhz number) carry farther, penetrate buildings better and require fewer towers to cover a large area. The downside is in a heavily populated area, you want more towers and a shorter range to spread the load. In a city, like Manhattan, you want the building penetration of a low frequency but also the small radius and segmentation of the higher frequencies. This is the big technical challenge, but there will be a variety of techniques to tackle this with LTE. Verizon and AT&T both own nationwide chunks of 700 mhz and 850mhz and they also own a good bit of the higher frequencies. They will use the 700mhz band for their initial LTE roll outs and then use higher bands for additional urban bandwidth when needed. Sprint an T-Mobile are currently limited to the higher bands and are at a distinct disadvantage in rural coverage (without roaming on the other carriers) in both 3G and any future 4g roll outs.
  • Reply 55 of 60
    aiaddictaiaddict Posts: 487member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justflybob View Post


    I swear, Verizon reminds me of the prom queen the day after the prom.



    They just don't understand that their moment in the spotlight is over.



    To be fair they still have over 80 million customers who have not realized it either. They also probably have time to improve their network and the customer service and pricing before they lose either their customer base or their reputation. Consumers can be slow to catch on.
  • Reply 56 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bcode View Post


    I hate to stir the waters but given all the facts of late, I'm almost a believer of the January Verizon iPhone. Here's why:
    1. AT&T doesn't get 'inspired', nor does it offer freebies for no good reason - for this, I'm convinced that the move to allow newer subscribers to upgrade to the iPhone 4 is a last ditch effort to sign as many 2 year contracts as possible.

    2. Apple tries to stay on a release schedule, but has been known to update products on a whim if the market pushes hard enough. It's my opinion that Apple would gladly release a 'tweaked' version of the iPhone 4 to sell on the Verizon network, especially if that means doubling their selling power overnight.

    3. 2011 marks the 4 year mark for the Apple/AT&T relationshit... Since the US works on 2 year contracts, it would seem logical that the original exclusivity deal was for 2 full contract terms (or 4 years).

    4. Apple has publically rediculed AT&T several times over this last year - they are in just as much of a hurry to get away from AT&T as you are.

    5. Apple is liberally leaking documents that suggest the exclusivity will last, at least, another year - a typical misdirection move (or legitimate cause for concern).


    • Didn't AT&T bend the upgrade rules for both the 3G and 3GS?

    • Usually pretty few and far between. I could see this being one of the exceptions.

    • That only is logical from Apple's standpoint. From AT&T's, there is no way you'd negotiate an end to your exclusivity at the same time as a contract cycle is up. Talk about an open door for churn.

    • Apple has also publicly defended AT&T over the last year.

    • I saw one from 2007. Were there more?

  • Reply 57 of 60
    lilgto64lilgto64 Posts: 1,147member
    what we need is a chip/antenna that can reprogram itself to whichever frequency you need to use - yeah - and on AUg 12, 2017 the iPhone 8 became self aware...



    actually - that gives me an idea for an app - if your phone gets lonely - because you have misplaced it - it calls your home number - or when it gets down to a minimum battery threshold it sends you an email with its current GPS location so you can find it or at least remotely wipe it before it dies.
  • Reply 58 of 60
    aiaddictaiaddict Posts: 487member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    actually - that gives me an idea for an app - if your phone gets lonely - because you have misplaced it - it calls your home number - or when it gets down to a minimum battery threshold it sends you an email with its current GPS location so you can find it or at least remotely wipe it before it dies.



    Home phone number? What is that?
  • Reply 59 of 60
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Inklings2 View Post


    If Apple really wants to sell phones, they will make phone available to Verizon before the holidays. Verizon could sell several million in December alone.



    What do all the Verizon fans not understand?



    Verizon dictates how a platform is developed on their Network.



    Apple dictates the phone specs and OS functionality and the Network vendors comply and expand in a partnership between Apple and themselves in how to best leverage added service value to their bottom line.



    Verizon controls the client and server. They're actually on borrowed time.
  • Reply 60 of 60
    philipmphilipm Posts: 240member
    All Apple needs to do when the AT&T deal expires is sell unlocked phones. Then anyone can provide a service if they have the right infrastructure. You may lose some features like visual voicemail. Just imagine you're in Australia, and you'll get over it fast. iPhone was launched here without VVM, and as far as I know, only one major provider has added it (Vodafone, May 2009).



    Consumers here get a great choice: go with the network with best coverage, or go with the network that has VVM (with a range of choices in between). Jealous?
Sign In or Register to comment.