Strong quarter expected, but Apple's 'antennagate' could hurt iPhone sales

245

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 83
    jorisxjorisx Posts: 4member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Wall Street expects Apple to report another impressive quarter this afternoon, but future iPhone sales could be lower because of publicized antenna issues with the iPhone 4.



    Oppenheimer



    Analyst Yair Reiner has reduced his projected iPhone sales for the next quarter to 8.5 million, down from 11 million, citing well publicized signal drops that can be replicated with the iPhone 4 in weak signal areas. He expects others on Wall Street, which average predictions between 11 million and 11.5 million, will also reduce their estimates.



    "We worry that the wave of negative publicity surrounding the new iPhone's wireless reception will continue to pressure AAPL's shares and potentially impact sales," Reiner wrote. "We believe the iPhone 4's antenna problem is comparable to that of other smartphones, but in the court of public opinion, perception is reality. And the perception -- created by a scoop-hungry media and Apple's newly emboldened wireless adversaries -- is that the 4 is faulty."



    "For now," he continued, "the Lilliputians have Gulliver in a tangle."



    Despite the lower iPhone sales estimates, Reiner has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL stock. But he has also reduced his price target from $345 to $330.



    "We continue to be bullish on Apple's long-term position as the definer of the modern, mobile media consumer experience," he wrote. "But we are growing concerned that if Antennagate cannot be contained, the stock could face near-term pressure and potentially trade down to the low $200s."



    Apple announced last week that it will give away free cases for every iPhone 4 sold through Sept. 30. But some would rather see Apple implement a more permanent hardware fix for the issue, in which users can cover the bottom left corner of the iPhone 4 and see their bars of signal strength drop dramatically.



    Kaufman Bros.



    Analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple will likely issue its vintage conservative guidance in this afternoon's earnings report. Typically, he said, investors will largely ignore the guidance because it has proven so conservative.



    But this time, Wu said, the well-publicized iPhone 4 antenna issue may lead investors to think otherwise. "Given continued concerns around iPhone 4 antenna issues, it will be interesting if that stance remains," he said.



    Earlier this month, Wu already lowered his sales projections for the June quarter by 1.5 million. Wu believes Apple sold 7.5 million iPhones in the previous quarter, a lower-than-expected number due to screen supply constraints and inventory drawdown. That number is well below Wall Street's consensus of 8.4 million.



    Wu, however, still expects Apple to ship 40 million iPhones in calendar 2010. Lost sales due to supply issues in the last quarter will be made up in the following quarters, he said.



    Wu said investors will be closely watching the reported gross margin from Apple. Kaufman Bros. is modeling 39 percent, in line with consensus, but the numbers could skew lower due to the introduction of the iPad and its aggressive $499 starting price point.



    Wu still expects Apple to beat consensus estimates of $14.7 billion in revenue and $3.10 in earnings per share. He said the upside may not be as significant as previous quarters, however, when the company beat revenue by at least $1.5 billion, and topped EPS by 48 cents.





    T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes
  • Reply 22 of 83
    You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?



    As soon as I tell someone I got an iphone4, the first thing they always say is 'I heard it has problems.. is that happening with yours?' These are regular people.



    Look, as someone with an iphone4, at least in my experience, the thing works great. I've had no problems, and I think this whole thing has been blown way out of proportion, even for those who are effected. The media just jumped all over it because its Apple.



    But, people see this stuff, and that's what they know of the phone. Everyone knows what the new iphone is, and then it comes out and the internet goes crazy saying you cant make a call if you are holding it. If I hadn't bought one on day one before these reports flooded in, I would have been skeptical too. The fact is, there has been an absurd amount of negative press and uncertainty about this thing, and it has gotten to the general public. That will obviously effect their perception of Apple and the new iphone, even if for the most part they are still in high demand. You are a fool if you say otherwise.
  • Reply 23 of 83
    cmf2cmf2 Posts: 1,427member
    To point out the obvious, iPhone 4 demand still outstrips the supply. Even if some people decide against an iPhone 4, Apple isn't losing money because they didn't have a phone to sell them in the first place. By the time supply starts catching up with demand, this won't be a major issue in the press anymore. I can't see this having a major effect on Apple's sales.
  • Reply 24 of 83
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stevetim View Post


    A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.



    It might go for the Blackberry! Nom nom nom nom nom mmm moar berries
  • Reply 25 of 83
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,272member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    The only thing that will restrict iPhone sales is supply.



    Agreed!!!! This, too, will turn into another "I told you so" moment where Apple exceeds expectations. Remember, the iPad was supposed to be a dud...
  • Reply 26 of 83
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,344member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stevetim View Post


    A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.



    Dr. Otto Gunther Octavius (Doc Ock) would strenuously object to your assertion. Just ask Peter Parker about his troubles with a certain german octopus.
  • Reply 27 of 83
    Well everything else is severely down today, might as well throw Apple into the party.
  • Reply 28 of 83
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,272member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jorisx View Post


    T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes



    Yeah, but...
  • Reply 29 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jorisx View Post


    T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes



    Considering the rep the US mobile network and, specifically, AT&T has, coupled with those with the issue saying that it only occurs when the signal is weak, those in small, dense countries with great cell coverage the pragmatic people may be thinking this is a non-issue for them.
  • Reply 30 of 83
    sheffsheff Posts: 1,407member
    Are you kidding me? If anything they'll sell more now, since you basically have a sale now that gives a free bumper with every phone bought. It's a chance to customize the color of your phone for free or a $30 discount for the phone.(that is customized)



    Even if you don't like customizing or cases in general, you still can pick a black one and pretend you have a prototype hidden as 3GS (just don't leave it at the bar).



    I'll put on my analyst hat and say they will sell 10.5 mil instead of 11 mil for the next quarter. We'll see who is right. (you have to factor in some people who have not heard about the free bumper or have already jumped ship before the announcement and got a droid or something).
  • Reply 31 of 83
    cmf2cmf2 Posts: 1,427member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by qualar View Post


    No fanboy but 1200+ posts on AppleInsider?



    If you'd actually read a few of his posts, you'd know he isn't a fanboy. Having a lot of posts just means that you are either interested in Apple products (to varying extents) or that you like harrassing people interested in Apple products, or a mixture of both.
  • Reply 32 of 83
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I can?t stand the suffix. With this it?s more absurd because this isn?t even a scandal. We need a new term. Any ideas?



    Well the "gate" suffix just reminded me for some reason of a particular billionaire that lives up in the Pacific northwest, so how about we change it to "AntennaJob" as an homage to Steve?
  • Reply 33 of 83
    scafe2scafe2 Posts: 61member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    Antennagate lol



    We should stop putting gate at the end of any little ol controversy. That whole "climategate" crap was so annoying to listen to.



    As far as how their numbers will be affected, I'd be interested to see a survey of 100 people buying an iphone 4 to see if they even know about the "issue", and if they do, whether or not it was even a thought in their mind to consider not getting an ip4 because of it. My guess is, most people won't know about it, and those that do won't care (obviously since they're still buying the darn thing.)



    Well,... over here in the UK, most people i know who see my iP4 ask about the reception issues, it seems most have heard about it and or seen it on the TV,.. so unfortunately after the Apple fan boys have stopped buying it, Joe public may well decide to give it a miss, or at least wait until iP5 before indulging,...Shame really as besides the antenna issues the rest of the phone is great,...
  • Reply 34 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Iphtashu Fitz View Post


    Well the "gate" suffix just reminded me for some reason of a particular billionaire that lives up in the Pacific northwest, so how about we change it to "AntennaJob" as an homage to Steve?



    I wouldn?t mind an AntennaJob.
  • Reply 35 of 83
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    The only thing that will restrict iPhone sales is supply.



    bingo



    9
  • Reply 36 of 83
    daveswdavesw Posts: 406member
    Analysts: Case Closed on Antennagate



    Quote:

    Steve Jobs closed Apple's iPhone 4 antennagate affair with a press presentation last Friday, and though portions of the media are still fretting over the matter, one group of important stakeholders are convinced it's over: analysts.





    http://www.fastcompany.com/1671977/a...ts-stock-price
  • Reply 37 of 83
    dcrdcr Posts: 7member
    I just ordered an iPhone4 at the SF apple store. There is a 1 month wait. Seems to me that the biggest problem facing Apple re the phone is that they can't make them fast enough.
  • Reply 38 of 83
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post


    Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now.



    Such a bad image that they only sold 3 M in the first month. ANd they're still sold out everywhere - even though there still aren't enough available for most of the world.



    Every other vendor would kill for such a 'bad image'.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    Not true. I for one would take a bumper or a case rather than return the whole phone, and I'm no fanboy. Far from it actually lol



    Then why are you spending so much energy whining about the iPhone? Nothing is perfect. Even with its flaws - which you are parading constantly - it's your first choice. So what's with all the whining?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by september11th View Post


    You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?



    No one attacked him, they just pointed out who wrong he is.



    I guess your view is that it's OK to post a blatant lie, but it's not OK to correct the lie?
  • Reply 39 of 83
    elffirelffir Posts: 23member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by september11th View Post


    You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?

    .



    Had that been all he said, sure. But he also suggested that this makes the Android look good [to this general public he's such an expert on] in comparison. Therefore the point that iPhone4's are selling as fast as they can be made, and that Androids are not is a fair rebuttal. And it's always fair to attack someone who claims in advance that anyone who disagrees with him is an unthinking fanboy or apologist.
  • Reply 40 of 83
    zindakozindako Posts: 468member
    I love my iPhone4, thats all I have to say.
Sign In or Register to comment.