I think Apple will get a big boost in iPhone sales if they pick up Verizon. I know a lot of people who would switch from their Android phones. Currently most of them use an Android phone to make calls and surf the net, but also carry an iPod touch for Apps. Apple may see slight cannibalization of iPod sales if they pick up Verizon as a carrier.
It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it. For example, I'm switching from my 3GS to a Droid X in the coming weeks on Verizon. Even if the iPhone were to land on that carrier, it wouldn't matter to me. I chose the Droid X based on form factor, software and network.
A Verizon iPhone would satisfy one of those complaints, but it has a lot of catch up to play to the Droid X for my purposes, frankly ^_^.
There have been several surveys where a significant number of Verizon users say they want the iPhone.
If what you say were true, Droid X would be selling as well for Verizon as the iPhone is selling for AT&T, but that is not the case at all.
What number of AT&T customers want the Droid X?
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuusharo
It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it.
Thats pretty much what I was thinking even more so when you start throwing around the term "significant number".
Come on Extreme ... you know very well how polls are done.... by a small sample. Is it 100% accurate, 100% of the time, probably not .... but it's success rate is quite high. The following info is from Gallup (1997) but still relevant today.
The Number of Interviews or Sample Size Required:
"One key question faced by Gallup statisticians: how many interviews does it take to provide an
adequate cross-section of Americans? The answer is, not many -- that is, if the respondents to
be interviewed are selected entirely at random, giving every adult American an equal
probability of falling into the sample. The current U.S. adult population in the continental
United States is 187 million. The typical sample size for a Gallup poll, which is designed to
represent this general population, is 1,000 national adults."
"A survey of 1,000 consumers indicates that a significant number of subscribers are waiting to purchase the expected Verizon iPhone 4, indicating new threats for both AT&T and Android. "
When you have a customer base of 94 million and the term "significant number" is used after polling 1000 customers I would say thats a bit over the top and the poll is pretty much meaningless.
Also to say that Android could suffer when it was just reported that 200k units are being activated per day is also a bit much with only 1000 polled.
Clearly Verizon customers would be interested in having the iPhone come to Verizon as I am sure Sprint customers would be also if Apple made a CDMA version of the iPhone I see no reason for them not to roll it out to both Verizon and Sprint.
"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."
That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.
Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.
Can you be more specific about this? What makes you like the Droid X better besides Verizon?
Well it's got extra buttons and it's ugly and chunky and it doesn't have that annoying Retina display and it's got less apps and it's got worse apps and the multimedia player sucks.
But you can hook it to your TV because of how often you're gonna want to use it as your media hub. Oh, and it's not made by those bastards at Apple who so many people just hate for no reason other than because other people love them.
"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."
People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.
Quote:
That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.
The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.
Quote:
Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.
No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.
People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.
The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.
No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.
Dave
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Oh that's awesome. Tell us again about how scientific polls are wrong because you don't like the outcome!
I was seriously considering looking at Verizon but not right away. I would have waited for the news reports on those who did convert.
Now, I won't even consider it given Verizon's support of the dismantling of Net Neutrality and sad shape it would leave the wireless infrastructure in.
I'd consider switching to Verizon if they carried the iPhone.
I have a few questions for the Verizon customers here. When you send a text message, do you get a 15 second delay before the text actually goes through? Also, when you send texts, is it typical for them to arrive 2-5 minutes after you send them?
As an AT&T employee i personally cant wait to see iphone on Verizon so we can off load most of these whiners and get the network back. most customers that are upset iv spoken to would have normally cancelled in a heart beat but cannot live without the iphone. Verizon doesn't have this problem, if a customer gets upset with Verizon they can get a junky android phone for any network and if they wait 3 months there will be a new version of the one they just brought if they don't like the phone
Nice report by Morpace. They certainly covered many areas that other analysts seem to constantly overlook.
As for the poll, these will be always subject to error, even if you polled everyone as the grouping and questions can easily be done to skew results, but the sample size is more than adequate to yield a viable result bases on the first two criteria.
Apple has until January to get the iPhone on T-mobile before I just give up and get an Android phone with them. I really don't want to switch to AT&T and I'm still waiting to get my first smart phone.
This isn't my area of expertise. I assume any new Verizon iPhone service has to be new as the ability to both surf and call at the same time is essential and their 'old' network can't do that can it? Has Verizon truly got such a true 4G network nation wide yet?
Apple has until January to get the iPhone on T-mobile before I just give up and get an Android phone with them. I really don't want to switch to AT&T and I'm still waiting to get my first smart phone.
We can deduce that T-Mobile USA definitely won't be happening.
How do we know?
T-Mobile USA and AT&T both use UMTS (3GSM) so all it would need is the correct UMTS Operating Band chip to work on T-Mo's 3G network. The FCC has unceremoniously revealed that the iPhone 4 has 5 UMTS (3GSM) bands. None of them is the 1700MHz spectrum needed for T-Mo. What they did add is the 3G band used most prominently by Japan's NTT DoCoMo.
Why NTT over T-Mo?
For starters they are Japan's largest carrier and T-Mo is the US' smallest. Secondly, they have a lot more subscribers than T-Mo in the US. Finally, if Apple is prepping a CDMA iPhone, which I think they are based on the rumorsnof component purchases in China, then going with the Verizon or Sprint over T-Mo would make even more sense.
I'm happy with AT&T and have no intention of switching - and no surprise that this article validates that the overwhelming majority are happy with AT&T. The vocal techies tend to be the most who agitate - if the average person can get functionality, they are typically happy. They aren't interested in enabling the service menu and arguing who has less db of loss....
I also remember before Verizon had any real competition how big of jerks they were. I'm not surprised that they were colluding with google to limit choice - what a shocker Have fun with your locked down and un-even Internet on Verizon wireless.
The other point that is now obvious is if/when Verizon gets the iPhone, Android is going to be seriously stunted.
Apple's sales in 2Q 2010 represented 22% of US smart phone market share while Android's was 34%. This is all due to Apple's decision to go with an exclusive carrier agreement. Android would have never taken hold had the iPhone been available on multiple carriers. Once the iPhone is available elsewhere, I'm afraid it will be too late to convert Android owners.
Apple is comfortable with 15-20% market share earning record profit per customer and this is where they will likely be in another year.
Comments
I think Apple will get a big boost in iPhone sales if they pick up Verizon. I know a lot of people who would switch from their Android phones. Currently most of them use an Android phone to make calls and surf the net, but also carry an iPod touch for Apps. Apple may see slight cannibalization of iPod sales if they pick up Verizon as a carrier.
It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it. For example, I'm switching from my 3GS to a Droid X in the coming weeks on Verizon. Even if the iPhone were to land on that carrier, it wouldn't matter to me. I chose the Droid X based on form factor, software and network.
A Verizon iPhone would satisfy one of those complaints, but it has a lot of catch up to play to the Droid X for my purposes, frankly ^_^.
If what you say were true, Droid X would be selling as well for Verizon as the iPhone is selling for AT&T, but that is not the case at all.
What number of AT&T customers want the Droid X?
It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it.
Even if the iPhone were to land on that carrier, it wouldn't matter to me. I chose the Droid X based on form factor, software and network.
A Verizon iPhone would satisfy one of those complaints, but it has a lot of catch up to play to the Droid X for my purposes, frankly ^_^.
Can you be more specific about this? What makes you like the Droid X better besides Verizon?
Thats pretty much what I was thinking even more so when you start throwing around the term "significant number".
Come on Extreme ... you know very well how polls are done.... by a small sample. Is it 100% accurate, 100% of the time, probably not .... but it's success rate is quite high. The following info is from Gallup (1997) but still relevant today.
The Number of Interviews or Sample Size Required:
"One key question faced by Gallup statisticians: how many interviews does it take to provide an
adequate cross-section of Americans? The answer is, not many -- that is, if the respondents to
be interviewed are selected entirely at random, giving every adult American an equal
probability of falling into the sample. The current U.S. adult population in the continental
United States is 187 million. The typical sample size for a Gallup poll, which is designed to
represent this general population, is 1,000 national adults."
note: the bold markings are mine.
Of course. But this is what grabbed me.
"A survey of 1,000 consumers indicates that a significant number of subscribers are waiting to purchase the expected Verizon iPhone 4, indicating new threats for both AT&T and Android. "
When you have a customer base of 94 million and the term "significant number" is used after polling 1000 customers I would say thats a bit over the top and the poll is pretty much meaningless.
Also to say that Android could suffer when it was just reported that 200k units are being activated per day is also a bit much with only 1000 polled.
Clearly Verizon customers would be interested in having the iPhone come to Verizon as I am sure Sprint customers would be also if Apple made a CDMA version of the iPhone I see no reason for them not to roll it out to both Verizon and Sprint.
Read this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3704453/
Here's the most important part:
"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."
That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.
Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.
Can you be more specific about this? What makes you like the Droid X better besides Verizon?
Well it's got extra buttons and it's ugly and chunky and it doesn't have that annoying Retina display and it's got less apps and it's got worse apps and the multimedia player sucks.
But you can hook it to your TV because of how often you're gonna want to use it as your media hub. Oh, and it's not made by those bastards at Apple who so many people just hate for no reason other than because other people love them.
Read this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3704453/
Here's the most important part:
"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."
People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.
That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.
The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.
Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.
No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.
Dave
People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.
The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.
No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.
Dave
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Oh that's awesome. Tell us again about how scientific polls are wrong because you don't like the outcome!
HAHAHAHAHA!!!
Now, I won't even consider it given Verizon's support of the dismantling of Net Neutrality and sad shape it would leave the wireless infrastructure in.
I have a few questions for the Verizon customers here. When you send a text message, do you get a 15 second delay before the text actually goes through? Also, when you send texts, is it typical for them to arrive 2-5 minutes after you send them?
As for the poll, these will be always subject to error, even if you polled everyone as the grouping and questions can easily be done to skew results, but the sample size is more than adequate to yield a viable result bases on the first two criteria.
Apple has until January to get the iPhone on T-mobile before I just give up and get an Android phone with them. I really don't want to switch to AT&T and I'm still waiting to get my first smart phone.
We can deduce that T-Mobile USA definitely won't be happening.
How do we know?
T-Mobile USA and AT&T both use UMTS (3GSM) so all it would need is the correct UMTS Operating Band chip to work on T-Mo's 3G network. The FCC has unceremoniously revealed that the iPhone 4 has 5 UMTS (3GSM) bands. None of them is the 1700MHz spectrum needed for T-Mo. What they did add is the 3G band used most prominently by Japan's NTT DoCoMo.
Why NTT over T-Mo?
For starters they are Japan's largest carrier and T-Mo is the US' smallest. Secondly, they have a lot more subscribers than T-Mo in the US. Finally, if Apple is prepping a CDMA iPhone, which I think they are based on the rumorsnof component purchases in China, then going with the Verizon or Sprint over T-Mo would make even more sense.
In any case I think you are out of luck.
This is really funny. Verizon in Q1 2010 had 92.8 million customers and this poll was a sample of 1000. And this is suppose to mean something?
Yes, it is statistics and it can work if they did the poll right.
A random poll with responses from 500-1000 people will model the entire population of the US within a couple of percent error.
see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
I also remember before Verizon had any real competition how big of jerks they were. I'm not surprised that they were colluding with google to limit choice - what a shocker
The other point that is now obvious is if/when Verizon gets the iPhone, Android is going to be seriously stunted.
Apple is comfortable with 15-20% market share earning record profit per customer and this is where they will likely be in another year.