Steve Jobs isn't convinced new Apple TV will be a mainstream hit

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  • Reply 201 of 203
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Vimeo posted about the reality of streaming 1080P. Vimeo's encoding technology is exponentially better than that of YouTube. Vimeo described how very few people have computer screens that can display 1080. On top of that there are trade offs with compression, storage space, bandwidth. By the time you deal with all of that it doesn't really look much better than 720P. Which is what most people are capable of viewing in the first place.



    Given that 1080p 22"-23" monitors go for a whopping $170-$190 I'm thinking the excuse that most folks don't have a 1080p monitor is...ah...disingenuous.



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  • Reply 202 of 203
    Ironic there's a Direct TV advert on this forum for $29.99/month.



    My thought is simple: By the time Apple brings it's data center online, it will have already:

    a)bought Netflix

    b)debuted the apple television (as in, a big fuggin' TV set)

    c)folded tv/newspaper/print/music content seemlessly into iOS an the iTV (box or television)

    d)have a steady stream of iAD money coming in (whose profits will offset any 'losses' of offering content competitively against cable/google/dish)

    e)pwn the livingroom with movies, music, games, apps (daytrading, cooking, exercise, etc.), news.





    done. DONE. and dOnE.



    just picked up 50 shares of Netflix this afternoon. $40B in cash...why would apple re-invent the netflix wheel.. netflix already HAS the content deals, the 'genius picking' technology, the slick GUI/workflow, the hyper efficient streaming technology, the customer base and accounting, etc. that apple would need. the *most* valuable thing that netflix has is years and YEARS and VERY hard work working negotiations with the *content* providers...which are the SINGLE most important part of this equation. Netflix makes hulu and redbox look like childs play, and even at $126/share, Netflix is cheap looking forward...they have something that Apple couldn't do on their own for years and years...and would buy Apple a 'jumpstart' ahead of Google, almost overnight. Netflix can SCALE to the apple data center immediately. it's a match made in heaven, and the ONLY team I am betting on to own majority content distribution 2 years from now.



    Long Netflix, Longer Apple.
  • Reply 203 of 203
    programmerprogrammer Posts: 3,420member
    It looks like Apple has figured out that while they can provide a content delivery channel for their devices (iTunes), if they want to succeed it can't be the only channel. This is what the AppStore is all about. Allowing alternative channels and third party developer types of content is a critical element of iPhone/iPad success, and is what AppleTV lacks. Until AppleTV gains the AppStore, it will remain a hobby product. When it has this crucial piece, it will move out of the realm of being a hobby. That shouldn't be interpreted as "it will become an instant smash success", but it will become a serious product because suddenly the opportunity to have a "killer app" will exist. The term "killer app" is an old one and isn't used much anymore, but it is remains appropriate... or perhaps it should be amended to be "killer apps". No single delivery channel will make or break the device, but the aggregate of what is available will determine how compelling a device is. The price point is crucial, as it was for iPad and iPhone. If the rumoured $99 is true there will be a large number of people who will buy one (or more) simply because they are willing to just write off that amount as an experiment. That number is very likely going to be large enough that Apple will move enough devices to draw the killer apps it needs in order to be a success. I expect that momentum will build more slowly than it has for iPad... but if the right players bring apps to the platform, then it will build irresistibly.



    IPTV is starting to take off. Various companies are delivering in this way, and the AppleTV+apps could replace the existing set top boxes (most likely on a customer-by-customer basis... rather like the Kindle app for iPad/iPhone vs. the Kindle device). If Apple can maneuver their way into this market (principally by authoring an app or two, and negotiating with key providers), then their device becomes a more compelling alternative because it really does begin to deliver the traditional TV stream as well as other forms of streaming through the Internet or from the local Mac/PC. Client-side DVR functionality won't be available with the rumoured new device, unless it uses the Mac/PC for storage... feasible, but not without technical issues.



    Even without IPTV, apps such as Netflix, Hulu, iTunes, etc will enable streaming to stand alongside the regular TV services that come through existing boxes. Again, the low price entry point will enable the hardware to spread. The more that are out there, the more content providers and developers will look closely at it as a delivery platform. Many people are itching to cut out their regular TV service subscription... enough to make it an interesting market when addressed by a juggernaught like Apple (as opposed to a bit player like Roku).



    Personally I'm looking forward to such a device... if it arrives priced as rumoured (and no, I don't care if it can only output 720p to my 1080p TV) then I'll order one immediately. If there was one feature I'd wish for, it would be to give the device two or three HDMI inputs... so that I can route all my devices through it and never tell the TV to switch inputs (TVs have miserable user interfaces).
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