I agree with this poster. If iPhone had come to Verizon a year ago, it might have put a dent in Android. BUT...it's now too little, too late. VErizon is heavily invested in Android with the biggest lineup of any carrier. The whole DROID moniker is probably almost as well known as the iPhone brand at this point. And overseas, Android is gaining like crazy. Remember through all of this: Android is now #1 in the U.S., having surpassed even Blackberry in sales, and not because of buy-one-get-one deals. There aren't many of those. And, worldwide, Android has surpassed Apple as well. My prediction is within the next few years, iPhone will be like what the Mac was 20 years ago while Android follows the path that Windows followed back then as well--niche vs. ubiquity. The iPad, however, is another story. It's too early to know how that will play out, but with Android tablets coming out within the next couple of months from multiple manufacturers on multiple carriers, it could follow the same trajectory.
I forsee Android being dominant but if you consider iPod touch, iPhone and iPad collectively in 2011, 2012, with Apple ramping up production significantly, I would say Android could be 70% vs iOS at 20%. But nothing less than that. I say you'd be surprised, maybe iOS could be at worst, by 2012, 30% of [portable game player + *smartphone* mobile + tablet] OS.
This is not Mac vs PC. It is vastly different. This is iOS vs Android vs nibbles of Blackberry and Microsoft.
That said, I don't mind Android being dominant, let it become the fragmented, bloated, virus, malware, warez ridden mess that Windows is. FFS at the same time why does Apple have to be the ONLY major competitor to Android? Is there anyone else that can challenge Android in 2011 and 2012? Unfortunately it doesn't look like it, unless Microsoft does a Windows7-quality mobile platform. Windows7 literally pulled Microsoft's consumer-side business out of the fire after the madness that was Vista.
Huh? The iPad is selling close to the same rate for Macs... And it hasn't even launched outside of several select countries. It comprises at least(?) a quarter of iPhone4 sales, at very rough estimations. I don't have time to get into the numbers but we're definitely looking at about 2 to 3 million iPads a month. That's significant in terms of mobile browsers, tablet browsers, netbooks and iOS devices. Not least, it's significant in terms of desktop browsers because as iPads start to (if they haven't already) outsell Macs, iPads will have a bigger browser share of the web compared to Mac browser share.
It?s pretty amazing. This looks to be more sales than the first two iPhones within a comparable time frame
Due to the lower price point it will have to sell many more units than Macs in order to be more profitable, but I think it?s completely doable? and possibly within a year from now.
App Store growth rate seems to be slower than the iPhone in a comparable time frame.
APPLE STOPPED CARING ABOUT MARKETSHARE A LONG LONG TIME AGO. They measure success now by profits. As long that doesn't drop it's all that matters.
Bullshit. Every time Steve gives a formal talk, he crows about iOS blowing away every alternative.
Market share is just a means to Apple. Their one and only end is to maximize profits. Always has been. Always will be.
If capturing market share is the best means, like with the iPod and iPhone, they will do it and brag to high heavens about their market share. If they can get huge margins instead, like with Mac hardware, market share matters much less.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wurm5150
I think Steve mentioned before that more and more people (at least iPhone users I assume) don't do search anymore but instead are using apps for everything..
Bullshit. "Don't do search anymore"? "Use apps for everything"? Learn some perspective and precision and clarity and accuracy.
Maybe the facts are that an increasing number of people use apps more and more and search somewhat less. But I doubt even that is true, and neither of us has any data whatsoever.
A declining percentage does not mean fewer people - it means that more people who never had a smart phone to browser the web (or had one and did not use it because it was so lame) - are now doing so.
Yes, it may mean that.
But you don't have any information, so all you are doing is giving a wild guess.
Apple isn't going to crush Android when it comes to Verizon but it will certainly strike a forceful, lasting blow until, and only until each of it's competitors create a useful Itunes-like interface where ALL media is housed and can be easily viewed, purchased and transfered. Until then, Apple wins.
Bullshit. Every time Steve gives a formal talk, he crows about iOS blowing away every alternative.
Market share is just a means to Apple. Their one and only end is to maximize profits. Always has been. Always will be.
If capturing market share is the best means, like with the iPod and iPhone, they will do it and brag to high heavens about their market share. If they can get huge margins instead, like with Mac hardware, market share matters much less.
Bullshit. "Don't do search anymore"? "Use apps for everything"? Learn some perspective and precision and clarity and accuracy.
Maybe the facts are that an increasing number of people use apps more and more and search somewhat less. But I doubt even that is true, and neither of us has any data whatsoever.
I sure don't do a lot of google search anymore bud. I use apps more and more to get things done, get to anywhere, and look up what I need to know. But that's just me.. Steve said it about more people using apps than search. He's right about that AT LEAST TO ME. Is he right about that for everyone else? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. You're right neither of us has data, nor am I going to waste my time to go find it. But does it really matter to me and you?
And you don't have to be so hostile sounding about what I just said you know. Just calm down man... It's all good.
And Apple has treated App Store devs like shit in the last year or so, while constantly crowing about billions and billions [of apps] being served.
The Apps helped greatly to propel iOS to is current market share and growth rates. And market share and growth, in turn, inspired more and more apps to be written.
The strategy with iOS has to be very different from the strategy with Macs. The Mac can be a niche device and Apple can still make gobs of money. But they are now a CE company, and they will need volume to make gobs of money.
With the feedback loop of more apps-->market share-->more apps, Apple needs market share in the CE/appliance market they now seem to be embracing. Otherwise, they will be like Palm; excellent but irrelevant.
Huh? The iPad is selling close to the same rate for Macs... And it hasn't even launched outside of several select countries. It comprises at least(?) a quarter of iPhone4 sales, at very rough estimations. I don't have time to get into the numbers but we're definitely looking at about 2 to 3 million iPads a month. That's significant in terms of mobile browsers, tablet browsers, netbooks and iOS devices. Not least, it's significant in terms of desktop browsers because as iPads start to (if they haven't already) outsell Macs, iPads will have a bigger browser share of the web compared to Mac browser share.
How many iPads are in the wild? How many other iOS devices are in the wild? Do the arithmetic and get back to me.
I forsee Android being dominant but if you consider iPod touch, iPhone and iPad collectively in 2011, 2012, with Apple ramping up production significantly, I would say Android could be 70% vs iOS at 20%. But nothing less than that. I say you'd be surprised, maybe iOS could be at worst, by 2012, 30% of [portable game player + *smartphone* mobile + tablet] OS.
This is not Mac vs PC. It is vastly different. This is iOS vs Android vs nibbles of Blackberry and Microsoft.
You think that RIM and Microsoft together will account for less then 10%. Your crystal ball is in need of calibration. WinPhone7 will be heavily promoted. RIM is quickly getting its act together, and offers compelling Blackberry-only capabilities to disparate classes of users, ranging from CEOs to schoolgirls.
Apple needs badly to retain market share to do well in this arena. They need to preserve their dominant position in the app market.
Apple isn't going to crush Android when it comes to Verizon but it will certainly strike a forceful, lasting blow until, and only until each of it's competitors create a useful Itunes-like interface where ALL media is housed and can be easily viewed, purchased and transfered. Until then, Apple wins.
That is not necessarily true. One of the biggest drawbacks of iOS devices is iTunes. One of the biggest drawbacks of iTunes is that it is so bloated.
Out of the billions of people in the world, room exists for many different types of software. I often wish that I could sync with a quick and dirty music transfer program, for example, instead of going through all the rigamarole involved with using iTunes.
And I sure as hell don't use it as a media player!
That is not necessarily true. One of the biggest drawbacks of iOS devices is iTunes. One of the biggest drawbacks of iTunes is that it is so bloated.
Out of the billions of people in the world, room exists for many different types of software. I often wish that I could sync with a quick and dirty music transfer program, for example, instead of going through all the rigamarole involved with using iTunes.
And I sure as hell don't use it as a media player!
I agree that it is bloated, and restrictive to a degree that more often than not makes my blood boil- but that's Apple. Even with all that though, I believe it is still the most useful, most well rounded interface available, by far..
Trust me, I am waiting for the competition to get off it's collective asses and offer up something less restrictive and possibly a bit more intuitive. I have to imagine something is around the bend.
Regarding your comment about morphing OSX into iOS on the Mac, the very notion of taking something as brilliant as the Mac and crippling it into an iPhone or iPad is the worst idea in the world.
I don't think so. I'm not using the Mac very much after buying my iPad... if it gets all my apps on the Mac, on the iPad, I might as well sell my Macbook Pro. You might think people enjoy freedom, well, it's not necessarily true if they can get their work done. Plus, iPad is a LOT cheaper
IMHO, the direction that iOS is going in is actually a good thing. Because it has the App Store, there isn't any potential for the virus situation like on Windows to ever happen. There just isn't a reason to produce apps that mess up the OS after they get vetted by Apple and then if they somehow slip through, get revoked by Apple. I'd prefer the closed system in preference to the open one if the result was more security, and in this case, it seems in general iOS has pretty good security.
For hackers, I admit, their hacks won't be as easy to implement for a possible customized interface. But Apple isn't serving this market.
I dont think the kind of OS running on mobile devices is important has it was back in the 80s with the PC market. Back then a standard OS was important for enterprise because then wanted to be able to run compatible software.
Mobile devices dont need to be all running the same OS has long has they can supply software to there users. Apple has a great system going on with the app store. Apple makes software to sell hardware, something people seems to forget. Even all iTunes and software sales are insignificant compare to hardware sales, just take a look at Apple Quarter results.
The articles by Daniel what's-his-face are so biased, they are cringeworthy.
This was a good article.
Competition is good for consumers. I think Android will eventually have a greater percent of the market, but--just as with computers--Apple will rule the high-end (most profitable) part of the market. Fine by me.
Not counting iPad usage makes this analysis useless.
Android's days are numbered as the iPhone exclusivity with AT&T draws to a close. Once Americans can choose a carrier they like, iOS will crush Android.
An interesting comparison would be looking at the trend among AT&T customers. I'll bet that all of the iOS devices are destroying the 'droids in that arena.
Android is getting its 15 minutes of fame, just like its parent, Linux, did a few years ago. Linux as a consumer product is an abject failure that once seemed like a real Windows-killer. The anarchy in the Android world will similarly drive away most ordinary consumers. At least people running server farms will have a mobile OS they like
You can't be serious. Android has surpassed iPhone WORLDWIDE where most countries have iPhone on multiple carriers. The U.S. is one of the few where it's only on one carrier. It's too little, too late for iPhone in the U.S. The Droid/Verizon combination is killer and iPhone won't matter if/when it comes to Verizon. People have "moved on" from wanting an iPhone when they know Android devices do so much more, have much more flexibility and customization.
In monthly sales (second quarter) maybe, but not in total market share or web use.
yes, you're correct. But those figures include iPhone 4 but not the Droid X or Droid 2 or any of the Samsung Galaxy S series phones. There's no way iPhone can remain first with that kind of multi-carrier/manufacturer model.
I agree that it is bloated, and restrictive to a degree that more often than not makes my blood boil- but that's Apple. Even with all that though, I believe it is still the most useful, most well rounded interface available, by far..
Trust me, I am waiting for the competition to get off it's collective asses and offer up something less restrictive and possibly a bit more intuitive. I have to imagine something is around the bend.
And Apple has treated App Store devs like shit in the last year or so, while constantly crowing about billions and billions [of apps] being served.
The Apps helped greatly to propel iOS to is current market share and growth rates. And market share and growth, in turn, inspired more and more apps to be written.
The strategy with iOS has to be very different from the strategy with Macs. The Mac can be a niche device and Apple can still make gobs of money. But they are now a CE company, and they will need volume to make gobs of money.
With the feedback loop of more apps-->market share-->more apps, Apple needs market share in the CE/appliance market they now seem to be embracing. Otherwise, they will be like Palm; excellent but irrelevant.
Was actually a joke about Steve Balmer.
But I do agree developers are just a part of the means to profit for Apple. Apple will throw developers almost nothing since devs already have the incentive to do the work and, second, Apple knows running the app store is not supposed to be any more than just part of the way of demonstrating iOS hardware/software value to consumers.
Comments
I agree with this poster. If iPhone had come to Verizon a year ago, it might have put a dent in Android. BUT...it's now too little, too late. VErizon is heavily invested in Android with the biggest lineup of any carrier. The whole DROID moniker is probably almost as well known as the iPhone brand at this point. And overseas, Android is gaining like crazy. Remember through all of this: Android is now #1 in the U.S., having surpassed even Blackberry in sales, and not because of buy-one-get-one deals. There aren't many of those. And, worldwide, Android has surpassed Apple as well. My prediction is within the next few years, iPhone will be like what the Mac was 20 years ago while Android follows the path that Windows followed back then as well--niche vs. ubiquity. The iPad, however, is another story. It's too early to know how that will play out, but with Android tablets coming out within the next couple of months from multiple manufacturers on multiple carriers, it could follow the same trajectory.
I forsee Android being dominant but if you consider iPod touch, iPhone and iPad collectively in 2011, 2012, with Apple ramping up production significantly, I would say Android could be 70% vs iOS at 20%. But nothing less than that. I say you'd be surprised, maybe iOS could be at worst, by 2012, 30% of [portable game player + *smartphone* mobile + tablet] OS.
This is not Mac vs PC. It is vastly different. This is iOS vs Android vs nibbles of Blackberry and Microsoft.
That said, I don't mind Android being dominant, let it become the fragmented, bloated, virus, malware, warez ridden mess that Windows is. FFS at the same time why does Apple have to be the ONLY major competitor to Android? Is there anyone else that can challenge Android in 2011 and 2012? Unfortunately it doesn't look like it, unless Microsoft does a Windows7-quality mobile platform. Windows7 literally pulled Microsoft's consumer-side business out of the fire after the madness that was Vista.
Huh? The iPad is selling close to the same rate for Macs... And it hasn't even launched outside of several select countries. It comprises at least(?) a quarter of iPhone4 sales, at very rough estimations. I don't have time to get into the numbers but we're definitely looking at about 2 to 3 million iPads a month. That's significant in terms of mobile browsers, tablet browsers, netbooks and iOS devices. Not least, it's significant in terms of desktop browsers because as iPads start to (if they haven't already) outsell Macs, iPads will have a bigger browser share of the web compared to Mac browser share.
It?s pretty amazing. This looks to be more sales than the first two iPhones within a comparable time frame
Due to the lower price point it will have to sell many more units than Macs in order to be more profitable, but I think it?s completely doable? and possibly within a year from now.
App Store growth rate seems to be slower than the iPhone in a comparable time frame.
APPLE STOPPED CARING ABOUT MARKETSHARE A LONG LONG TIME AGO. They measure success now by profits. As long that doesn't drop it's all that matters.
Bullshit. Every time Steve gives a formal talk, he crows about iOS blowing away every alternative.
Market share is just a means to Apple. Their one and only end is to maximize profits. Always has been. Always will be.
If capturing market share is the best means, like with the iPod and iPhone, they will do it and brag to high heavens about their market share. If they can get huge margins instead, like with Mac hardware, market share matters much less.
I think Steve mentioned before that more and more people (at least iPhone users I assume) don't do search anymore but instead are using apps for everything..
Bullshit. "Don't do search anymore"? "Use apps for everything"? Learn some perspective and precision and clarity and accuracy.
Maybe the facts are that an increasing number of people use apps more and more and search somewhat less. But I doubt even that is true, and neither of us has any data whatsoever.
A declining percentage does not mean fewer people - it means that more people who never had a smart phone to browser the web (or had one and did not use it because it was so lame) - are now doing so.
Yes, it may mean that.
But you don't have any information, so all you are doing is giving a wild guess.
Bullshit. Every time Steve gives a formal talk, he crows about iOS blowing away every alternative.
Market share is just a means to Apple. Their one and only end is to maximize profits. Always has been. Always will be.
If capturing market share is the best means, like with the iPod and iPhone, they will do it and brag to high heavens about their market share. If they can get huge margins instead, like with Mac hardware, market share matters much less.
Bullshit. "Don't do search anymore"? "Use apps for everything"? Learn some perspective and precision and clarity and accuracy.
Maybe the facts are that an increasing number of people use apps more and more and search somewhat less. But I doubt even that is true, and neither of us has any data whatsoever.
I sure don't do a lot of google search anymore bud. I use apps more and more to get things done, get to anywhere, and look up what I need to know. But that's just me.. Steve said it about more people using apps than search. He's right about that AT LEAST TO ME. Is he right about that for everyone else? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. You're right neither of us has data, nor am I going to waste my time to go find it. But does it really matter to me and you?
And you don't have to be so hostile sounding about what I just said you know. Just calm down man... It's all good.
Developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers...
Nope. They too are merely a means to an end.
And Apple has treated App Store devs like shit in the last year or so, while constantly crowing about billions and billions [of apps] being served.
The Apps helped greatly to propel iOS to is current market share and growth rates. And market share and growth, in turn, inspired more and more apps to be written.
The strategy with iOS has to be very different from the strategy with Macs. The Mac can be a niche device and Apple can still make gobs of money. But they are now a CE company, and they will need volume to make gobs of money.
With the feedback loop of more apps-->market share-->more apps, Apple needs market share in the CE/appliance market they now seem to be embracing. Otherwise, they will be like Palm; excellent but irrelevant.
Huh? The iPad is selling close to the same rate for Macs... And it hasn't even launched outside of several select countries. It comprises at least(?) a quarter of iPhone4 sales, at very rough estimations. I don't have time to get into the numbers but we're definitely looking at about 2 to 3 million iPads a month. That's significant in terms of mobile browsers, tablet browsers, netbooks and iOS devices. Not least, it's significant in terms of desktop browsers because as iPads start to (if they haven't already) outsell Macs, iPads will have a bigger browser share of the web compared to Mac browser share.
How many iPads are in the wild? How many other iOS devices are in the wild? Do the arithmetic and get back to me.
I forsee Android being dominant but if you consider iPod touch, iPhone and iPad collectively in 2011, 2012, with Apple ramping up production significantly, I would say Android could be 70% vs iOS at 20%. But nothing less than that. I say you'd be surprised, maybe iOS could be at worst, by 2012, 30% of [portable game player + *smartphone* mobile + tablet] OS.
This is not Mac vs PC. It is vastly different. This is iOS vs Android vs nibbles of Blackberry and Microsoft.
You think that RIM and Microsoft together will account for less then 10%. Your crystal ball is in need of calibration. WinPhone7 will be heavily promoted. RIM is quickly getting its act together, and offers compelling Blackberry-only capabilities to disparate classes of users, ranging from CEOs to schoolgirls.
Apple needs badly to retain market share to do well in this arena. They need to preserve their dominant position in the app market.
Apple isn't going to crush Android when it comes to Verizon but it will certainly strike a forceful, lasting blow until, and only until each of it's competitors create a useful Itunes-like interface where ALL media is housed and can be easily viewed, purchased and transfered. Until then, Apple wins.
That is not necessarily true. One of the biggest drawbacks of iOS devices is iTunes. One of the biggest drawbacks of iTunes is that it is so bloated.
Out of the billions of people in the world, room exists for many different types of software. I often wish that I could sync with a quick and dirty music transfer program, for example, instead of going through all the rigamarole involved with using iTunes.
And I sure as hell don't use it as a media player!
That is not necessarily true. One of the biggest drawbacks of iOS devices is iTunes. One of the biggest drawbacks of iTunes is that it is so bloated.
Out of the billions of people in the world, room exists for many different types of software. I often wish that I could sync with a quick and dirty music transfer program, for example, instead of going through all the rigamarole involved with using iTunes.
And I sure as hell don't use it as a media player!
I agree that it is bloated, and restrictive to a degree that more often than not makes my blood boil- but that's Apple. Even with all that though, I believe it is still the most useful, most well rounded interface available, by far..
Trust me, I am waiting for the competition to get off it's collective asses and offer up something less restrictive and possibly a bit more intuitive. I have to imagine something is around the bend.
Regarding your comment about morphing OSX into iOS on the Mac, the very notion of taking something as brilliant as the Mac and crippling it into an iPhone or iPad is the worst idea in the world.
I don't think so. I'm not using the Mac very much after buying my iPad... if it gets all my apps on the Mac, on the iPad, I might as well sell my Macbook Pro. You might think people enjoy freedom, well, it's not necessarily true if they can get their work done. Plus, iPad is a LOT cheaper
IMHO, the direction that iOS is going in is actually a good thing. Because it has the App Store, there isn't any potential for the virus situation like on Windows to ever happen. There just isn't a reason to produce apps that mess up the OS after they get vetted by Apple and then if they somehow slip through, get revoked by Apple. I'd prefer the closed system in preference to the open one if the result was more security, and in this case, it seems in general iOS has pretty good security.
For hackers, I admit, their hacks won't be as easy to implement for a possible customized interface. But Apple isn't serving this market.
Mobile devices dont need to be all running the same OS has long has they can supply software to there users. Apple has a great system going on with the app store. Apple makes software to sell hardware, something people seems to forget. Even all iTunes and software sales are insignificant compare to hardware sales, just take a look at Apple Quarter results.
Thank you for a well-balanced article.
The articles by Daniel what's-his-face are so biased, they are cringeworthy.
This was a good article.
Competition is good for consumers. I think Android will eventually have a greater percent of the market, but--just as with computers--Apple will rule the high-end (most profitable) part of the market. Fine by me.
Not counting iPad usage makes this analysis useless.
Android's days are numbered as the iPhone exclusivity with AT&T draws to a close. Once Americans can choose a carrier they like, iOS will crush Android.
An interesting comparison would be looking at the trend among AT&T customers. I'll bet that all of the iOS devices are destroying the 'droids in that arena.
Android is getting its 15 minutes of fame, just like its parent, Linux, did a few years ago. Linux as a consumer product is an abject failure that once seemed like a real Windows-killer. The anarchy in the Android world will similarly drive away most ordinary consumers. At least people running server farms will have a mobile OS they like
You can't be serious. Android has surpassed iPhone WORLDWIDE where most countries have iPhone on multiple carriers. The U.S. is one of the few where it's only on one carrier. It's too little, too late for iPhone in the U.S. The Droid/Verizon combination is killer and iPhone won't matter if/when it comes to Verizon. People have "moved on" from wanting an iPhone when they know Android devices do so much more, have much more flexibility and customization.
In monthly sales (second quarter) maybe, but not in total market share or web use.
yes, you're correct. But those figures include iPhone 4 but not the Droid X or Droid 2 or any of the Samsung Galaxy S series phones. There's no way iPhone can remain first with that kind of multi-carrier/manufacturer model.
Unless Apple licenses iOS, it has no chance of fending off Android. Android will be as ubiquitous as Windows and Apple will be at 6%, again.
Apple may have 6% PC market share and but yet has a bigger market cap than Microsoft and Google.
I think Apple will gains more in advertising than Google will gains Android phones and tablets.
For example Google paid a ton of money for AdMob but I bet that Quatro will be much more valuable than AdMob long term...
Time will tell.
I agree that it is bloated, and restrictive to a degree that more often than not makes my blood boil- but that's Apple. Even with all that though, I believe it is still the most useful, most well rounded interface available, by far..
Trust me, I am waiting for the competition to get off it's collective asses and offer up something less restrictive and possibly a bit more intuitive. I have to imagine something is around the bend.
It sounds like we agree more than we disagree.
Apple may have 6% PC market share and but yet has a bigger market cap than Microsoft and Google.
Apple is not in the same business as the other two. Apple is a Consumer Electronics company. The other two are software companies.
Nope. They too are merely a means to an end.
And Apple has treated App Store devs like shit in the last year or so, while constantly crowing about billions and billions [of apps] being served.
The Apps helped greatly to propel iOS to is current market share and growth rates. And market share and growth, in turn, inspired more and more apps to be written.
The strategy with iOS has to be very different from the strategy with Macs. The Mac can be a niche device and Apple can still make gobs of money. But they are now a CE company, and they will need volume to make gobs of money.
With the feedback loop of more apps-->market share-->more apps, Apple needs market share in the CE/appliance market they now seem to be embracing. Otherwise, they will be like Palm; excellent but irrelevant.
Was actually a joke about Steve Balmer.
But I do agree developers are just a part of the means to profit for Apple. Apple will throw developers almost nothing since devs already have the incentive to do the work and, second, Apple knows running the app store is not supposed to be any more than just part of the way of demonstrating iOS hardware/software value to consumers.