Talk about selective analysis. They are ignoring the fact that smart phone sales have increased dramatically over the last couple of years. It wasn't too long ago that smartphones were limited to primarily business types, and they didn't really browse the web or have that great a selection of apps.
Now that more and more consumers have smart phones for personal use, they can check their email, do their web browsing, and a few other basic tasks while they are away from home. So there is far less reason to fire up the home computer.
So if there is an impact on DRAM prices due to mobile devices, it's from smart phones, not the iPad, where most of the impact is coming from. But as others have already posted, most of the glut of DRAM is likely due to the typical ups and downs of that particular market. Trends that existed long before the iPad, or even the iPhone, even existed.
we've been told ipad HAS NOT cannibalize apple's notebook/desktop market... now we're told ipad IS cannibalizing the pc market?!
this doesn't add up. i think ram demand has dropped and they're looking someone to blame.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alandail
it's cannibalizing the netbook market.
Yep... I subscribe to a number of podcasts some mac-centric, some pc-centric as well as a number of relatively unbiased ones... Some are shows but quite a few are 'first looks' type casts. Net-books are getting very few 'positive' reviews and most tend to point to the iPad and all it can do as a negative when reviewing the net-book given the cost.
I guess what it really comes down to is most netbooks are so lightweight in power, graphics and battery that even with a keyboard the iPad is often given the nod as the better buy.
The entire network team here at work each got a netbook. On Saturday, the guy who inspected a house I'm trying to buy wrote his report on a netbook and printed it out on a small portable printer for me. On my last work trip out to Iowa, my boss chose to bring his netbook with him instead of the laptop given to him by work, and he and a woman in Iowa got into a big chat about how awesome their netbooks were (she was using one at the meeting as well.)
It seems as though I see netbooks more and more these days. They obviously serve some basic functionality for many people.
How did you land on your conclusion about them going away?
netbook sales are declining, netbook company CEOs blame the iPad for the decline. Apple is expanding production, Asus is scaling back production. Anecdotal evidence that someone bought a netbook doesn't change industry trends.
"In June, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs predicted that the iPad and devices like it are part of an "uncomfortable" transition to the post-PC era." ...
There was an uncomfortable transition to MP3 players, and iPod led the way. Now there's an uncomfortable transition to smart phones with touch screens, and iPhone is leading the way. And there's also an uncomfortable transition to iPad-like devices, and yes, iPad is leading the way.
Apple won the MP3 player battle with iPod. And iPod touch totally dominates the mobile internet device market in general. There aren't even any competitors. (Unless you count Zune, but its sales round down to zero.) Time will tell whether iPhone and iPad dominate their markets, but so far Apple is looking good.
Oh, and there's one more thing. There will soon be an uncomfortable transition to internet-enabled TVs that run apps. Apple is just barely scratching the surface on that with the new Apple TV. But as always, they have a long-term plan that leverages their existing technologies. And it will likely involve iOS on Apple TV, iTunes App Store, and the giant North Carolina server facility Apple has nearly finished. Once again, Apple will lead the way.
Jobs compared the move to mobile devices like the iPad to the U.S. automobile industry, when most vehicles were trucks because they were driven by farmers. He noted that cars became more popular as cities rose, and features like power steering and automatic transmission were added over time.
"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. He noted that he believes traditional computers will remain, but will eventually represent a smaller number of users.
I just can't get through life without a truck and Mac desktop machine. I always cringe when I see people at Home Depot trying to load lumber into a compact sedan.
Of course I also have an iPad and a compact sedan.
I just can't get through life without a truck and Mac desktop machine. I always cringe when I see people at Home Depot trying to load lumber into a compact sedan.
Of course I also have an iPad and a compact sedan.
You can rent a truck at Home Depot for less then the cost of owning one. Although I'm not sure where the analogy is going...
Personally I can see us losing the desktop eventually. If these device can never have significant processing power, then they will just offload processing to a home server or the cloud. Mainly I see lightweight, inexpensive, energy saving devices. Some of them could return to a laptop form factor, but still work like an iPad. I could even see my big monitors replaced with a circle of a half dozen iPads. If they integrate well together, why not?
It's quite a feat of engineering that an iPad with 4-8x less RAM than a typical PC offers such a fluid and snappy end user experience. It really puts into perspective Steve's truck vs. car argument from the D conference. It's like driving your 18 wheeler down to the grocery store to buy some milk.
You can rent a truck at Home Depot for less then the cost of owning one. Although I'm not sure where the analogy is going...
You're right but you can also rent a PC. I have always enjoyed owning a truck and I use it a lot, just like my Mac. I use the iPhone and the iPad much less often. It is nice to have a device/vehicle for every situation. I'm not even sure why I have a Windows PC since I use it very, very infrequently, but if I need it I have it. I have every form factor that Apple makes.
If I could afford it I would add a Prancing Horse to my stable.
The entire network team here at work each got a netbook. On Saturday, the guy who inspected a house I'm trying to buy wrote his report on a netbook and printed it out on a small portable printer for me. On my last work trip out to Iowa, my boss chose to bring his netbook with him instead of the laptop given to him by work, and he and a woman in Iowa got into a big chat about how awesome their netbooks were (she was using one at the meeting as well.)
It seems as though I see netbooks more and more these days. They obviously serve some basic functionality for many people.
How did you land on your conclusion about them going away?
Personal experience, for starters. I have a netbook that I do not like. Granted I'm a Mac user so the whole Windows thing is not appealing. I have a relative who works for a chain of stores that sell office supplies, electronic equipment, etc. They're feedback regarding netbooks has been negative. Apparently some customers are unhappy with them. Sales of netbooks have apparently slowed since the introduction of the iPad. The netbook form factor is intrinsically inferior to the touchscreen tablet for a number of functions, many of which the netbooks were purchased in the first place.
My netbook runs out of battery power in less than two hours. Not nearly enough. The iPad lasts considerably longer. The track pad is a pain to use and the keyboard not great for someone like me with larger hands. The iPad is very easy to manipulate. The netbook is painfully slow at just about everything. Not nearly enough horsepower. I haven't used the iPad but I suspect it's quicker. I certainly hope it is. Software bundled with the netbook was rather meagre though my standards are high because I've been a long-time Mac owner. Software for the iPad is easy to acquire and inexpensive.
Perhaps there are limited scenarios in which the netbook works better but I wouldn't put much stock in the fact that you see people using them. Once you've bought the thing, short of returning it in the first month, you're not going to take something you've paid for and cast it aside. I use my netbook all the time but that doesn't mean that I enjoy using it or would want to buy another one.
You can't expect that a product that is good for a small percentage of consumers has a future. I doubt there's much margin in netbooks and if market share drops dramatically in the next few years in favour of touchscreen devices, development of the small laptops will slow considerably. Eventually it will just stop.
More complexity, more demands on hardware, more connectors, leads to greater weight, more power consumption, etc. all of which are undesirable in a handheld device.
None of what he is asking for in having the iPad be more independent from a computer requires different hardware. It's all software. Indeed, I fully expect over time the ability to activate, manage and sync to Mobile.Me or some other follow on service - with no dependency on a Mac OSX or Windows computer at all.
It's the next logical progression and not a big leap. For people like my father, the general purpose computer was always a non-starter. The iPad is perfect for him - and he's not alone. Don't think Apple doesn't see this as the next, great untapped market. I suspect this is what North Carolina is for - more so than for iTunes (although I wouldn't be surprised if they do that too). The truth is for 90% of people with general purpose computers at home they total overkill and more of a liability than an asset. They don't understand them and resent being at the mercy of The Geek Squad or technical friends and family. This is the sweet spot for the iPad and whatever follow-on devices Apple is planning. Devices that are computing appliances and that do a limited set of functions, and do them extremely well with little to no overhead.
It doesn't mean general purpose computers are going away, or that Apple is going to come in the middle of the night and confiscate them. It does mean that sales of them, at least to individuals instead of businesses, will probably fall dramatically. Indeed, there is evidence that is in fact happening.
None of what he is asking for in having the iPad be more independent from a computer requires different hardware. It's all software. Indeed, I fully expect over time the ability to activate, manage and sync to Mobile.Me or some other follow on service - with no dependency on a Mac OSX or Windows computer at all.
It's the next logical progression and not a big leap. For people like my father, the general purpose computer was always a non-starter. The iPad is perfect for him - and he's not alone. Don't think Apple doesn't see this as the next, great untapped market. I suspect this is what North Carolina is for - more so than for iTunes (although I wouldn't be surprised if they do that too). The truth is for 90% of people with general purpose computers at home they total overkill and more of a liability than an asset. They don't understand them and resent being at the mercy of The Geek Squad or technical friends and family. This is the sweet spot for the iPad and whatever follow-on devices Apple is planning. Devices that are computing appliances and that do a limited set of functions, and do them extremely well with little to no overhead.
It doesn't mean general purpose computers are going away, or that Apple is going to come in the middle of the night and confiscate them. It does mean that sales of them, at least to individuals instead of businesses, will probably fall dramatically. Indeed, there is evidence that is in fact happening.
The problem is that if you allow for the iPad to be operated independent of a full-function computer, at this time, it's inevitable that some fools will come along and whine about what a weak computer the iPad is. Not enough memory. Not enough computing power. Not enough connection options. Doesn't run OS X apps. Blah, blah, blah, on and on and on.
By making it right now a complimentary device, Apple is making it clear that the iPad, in its present form, is not intended to be a computer replacement. In time, this will probably change. Computing power will improve dramatically, memory will go up significantly, etc.
Do you, for instance, have any idea how expensive it would be to offer the amount of memory most of us would need to store what we want to store? If you're storing tons of data on a desktop computer, that frees you to offer significantly less memory on a portable companion device. Even 64GB, these days, is horribly inadequate for the average consumer. When people were storing mainly music and text files, there was no problem. But now, visual files are a very important part of the average consumer's collection. When Apple starts offering a 128GB iPad as the entry-level machine, then we can start to consider the iPad a viable desktop/laptop substitute for people who are not very demanding of their computers.
Apple does an excellent job of managing expectations. The iPad is not, as it is today, meant to be one's sole computing device. If you let that line blur, it's inviting trouble. Basically if you open the door to the iPad being a computing alternative, rather than a complimentary device, you'd better be prepared to deliver a device far more capable than today's technology allows in an affordable, hand-held, touch-screen device.
For every three or four folks with modest computing requirements you'll get one fool who wants the iPad to do it all. That fool would be rather loud and damaging. Apple is wise to not give that segment ammunition.
I can believe this. If iPads get most of the software features of computers, there won't be much of a point lugging or even accessing my Macbook Pro, even if it's remotely from school to home.
No. Just no. Trust me, the iPad won't replace anything. Telling you this from experience.
Why? Lemme begin... My MacBook broke then I was stuck using an iPad and iPod Touch for several months. The only way I could sync my data to it was from creating a temporary account on a laptop I was borrowing from a family member when it was no longer needed.
Not being able download/send files, view Flash (though honestly not a huge issue), and multitask got really annoying. Even more so that I was stuck getting apps only from the App Store, which goes back to my first annoyance on downloading, and the catalog was very limiting since it device is still fresh out of the oven. Even when I tried jailbreaking many of the apps were still only designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch. All while my music, movies, and tv show just sat there on the device because the rest were still on my MacBook. After a while I just said just said F* it and deleted all of it.
Didn't take until I got a new power cord for my iBook G4 with Ubuntu 10.04 LTS that I was stuck on that for month or two before I decided to sell it to get a netbook. Something I wanted to get even before Apple announced it.
I have a netbook. I bought it to tinker with and for the most part it's fun enough. As far as usability goes the iPad is vastly superior. The cramped keyboard coupled with the teeny touchpad makes inputting data, as well as manipulating what's already there, a chore.
I think for the crowd that netbooks are aimed for, the iPad is a much better solution (my opinion). This is particularly true if you buy the keyboard accessory for easier input of large quantities of text.
You also spent about twice the amount of money on an iPad as well, there's a point you should expect more for certain functions.
But, I think the current iPad is a very 1st gen device, and given Apple's track record with the 2g iPhone and 1st iPod Touch, their 1st gen devices age very quickly.
I have a netbook, circa 2008, and it fits the bill still, as it can run a full OS, and has more storage space than any iPad (160 GB vs up to 64 GB), and it has an SD slot/USB without requiring even more money from me. It's also not anchored to iTunes, which just kills the current iPad for me, and it just makes me think of it as a bigger version of my iPod Touch.
No. Just no. Trust me, the iPad won't replace anything. Telling you this from experience.
Why? Lemme begin... My MacBook broke then I was stuck using an iPad and iPod Touch for several months. The only way I could sync my data to it was from creating a temporary account on a laptop I was borrowing from a family member when it was no longer needed.
Not being able download/send files, view Flash (though honestly not a huge issue), and multitask got really annoying. Even more so that I was stuck getting apps only from the App Store, which goes back to my first annoyance on downloading, and the catalog was very limiting since it device is still fresh out of the oven. Even when I tried jailbreaking many of the apps were still only designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch.
It didn't take until I got a new power cord for my iBook G4 with Ubuntu 10.04 LTS that I was stuck on that for month or two before I decided to sell it to get a netbook. Something I wanted to get even before Apple announced it.
End rant.
As I said earlier, we've already replaced one need for a computer with an iPad, not only could it replace a computer for that task, it's better suited than any laptop or netbook for that task. We will soon replace another need for a computer with one. And when they add printing in november, we have yet another place we can use one.
And part of the problem with what you said is you seem to assume that the iPad is not going to evolve. I have no doubt that in 5 years more people will use computers that are iPad like than ones that are netbook like.
The other problem with what you said is you're missing a huge part of the market. One reason for the iPad's success is that it's hands down the easiest to use computer ever made. Many people don't want all of the complexity of their work computer when they are doing leisure computing. Many more only do leisure computing.
My biggest problem with my iPad is figuring out which of my kids (ages 9-18) is using it when I need it. They all love it and all prefer it over their notebook and netbook computers. They use it to play games, watch movies, watch TV shows, read books, browse the net, etc, etc.
I think a more reasonable explanation would be that people are not really migrating to Windows 7, and PC sales are not picking up as much as they would otherwise. Over 80% of the Windows installed base is on XP, which has not even been available for a year now.
I would actually think slowing PC sales are a signal of something even bigger in the marketplace... people are getting sick of Windows, with all the viruses, spyware, etc. But because of typical inertia, they are not ready to make the jump to Mac yet. Exploding Mac sales are an indication that some of these people are willing to overcome inertia. This is verified by Steve Job's statement that over 50% of new Mac buyers are switchers.
In a couple of years, this could become a flood, and we could see serious market share increases for Mac.
As much as I like the Mac I think the slow adoption of Windows 7 and slower than expected PC sales has more to do with inertia then anything else. The time between XP and Vista was the longest (5 years) between OS updates for Microsoft and even when it finally came out Vista was slow compared to XP.
It doesn't help that Microsoft's idea of XP "comparability" is to run XP on Virtual PC resulting in the totally ridiculous situation of running a Windows program that emulates PC hardware on a PC so that you can run older Windows programs.
So companies that were leery of updating their OS (and programs) back with Vista look at this and go "if still works reasonably well why upgrade?" For 90% of what people use a computer for XP works well enough.
Overall PC sales might be down, but that has nothing to do with the iPad. Are there more than 5 iPad owners out there that don't also own some other form of computer? Did anyone who bought an iPad not have a computer in the first place or cancel ever buying a computer again as a result?
At this point, the iPad is no more a PC replacement than an iPod touch is. Maybe in a few years some people will drop Notebooks and Desktops altogether in favour of the iPad, but that isn't happening now.
I dunno, the CEO of Acer moaning about their tanking sales might have had some to do with it.
Maybe just a little...
You didn't answer the question, and instead you just come off as someone who doesn't sound very intelligent at all. Acer's sales dip, and suddenly there isn't a market for netbooks?
I guess there hasn't EVER been a similar situation... Oh wait, didn't Apple's sales dip with their computers? Yeah, like a MAJOR dip. What are they doing now? Oh right, still making computers.
Netbooks aren't going away. They will simply continue to evolve.
Overall PC sales might be down, but that has nothing to do with the iPad. Are there more than 5 iPad owners out there that don't also own some other form of computer? Did anyone who bought an iPad not have a computer in the first place or cancel ever buying a computer again as a result?
At this point, the iPad is no more a PC replacement than an iPod touch is. Maybe in a few years some people will drop Notebooks and Desktops altogether in favour of the iPad, but that isn't happening now.
(Cue fanboys leaping to the defensive)
what is the logic that says that an iPad has to be the only computer being used for it to replace the need for a computer? I've already mentioned a couple of times in this thread that our company has found places where we are using iPads instead of computers. These are places that previously we would have bought a computer for that job, but now not only is the iPad fine for the job, it actually works significantly better than using a laptop or netbook computer to do the same job.
And I use mine for meetings, both work meetings, lunch meetings, appointments. I don't even have a laptop computer at work - the iPad does everything I need when I'm not at my desk and is lighter and more convenient than any notebook/netbook computer. The built in 3G networking means I don't even need an airless router wherever I am to keep up with emails and stuff.
The iPad is quite clearly replacing the need for some computers, but not the need for all computers.
what is the logic that says that an iPad has to be the only computer being used for it to replace the need for a computer? I've already mentioned a couple of times in this thread that our company has found places where we are using iPads instead of computers. These are places that previously we would have bought a computer for that job, but now not only is the iPad fine for the job, it actually works significantly better than using a laptop or netbook computer to do the same job.
And I use mine for meetings, both work meetings, lunch meetings, appointments. I don't even have a laptop computer at work - the iPad does everything I need when I'm not at my desk and is lighter and more convenient than any notebook/netbook computer. The built in 3G networking means I don't even need an airless router wherever I am to keep up with emails and stuff.
The iPad is quite clearly replacing the need for some computers, but not the need for all computers.
OK, so you're saying that situations like yours with the iPad have created a glut of RAM on the market, which is driving RAM prices noticably down, in agreement with the article? You think the iPad is the reason? Not global economic downturn and less people buying high-end PCs with lots of memory? That's where the bullshit lies in the article.
Comments
Now that more and more consumers have smart phones for personal use, they can check their email, do their web browsing, and a few other basic tasks while they are away from home. So there is far less reason to fire up the home computer.
So if there is an impact on DRAM prices due to mobile devices, it's from smart phones, not the iPad, where most of the impact is coming from. But as others have already posted, most of the glut of DRAM is likely due to the typical ups and downs of that particular market. Trends that existed long before the iPad, or even the iPhone, even existed.
we've been told ipad HAS NOT cannibalize apple's notebook/desktop market... now we're told ipad IS cannibalizing the pc market?!
this doesn't add up. i think ram demand has dropped and they're looking someone to blame.
it's cannibalizing the netbook market.
Yep... I subscribe to a number of podcasts some mac-centric, some pc-centric as well as a number of relatively unbiased ones... Some are shows but quite a few are 'first looks' type casts. Net-books are getting very few 'positive' reviews and most tend to point to the iPad and all it can do as a negative when reviewing the net-book given the cost.
I guess what it really comes down to is most netbooks are so lightweight in power, graphics and battery that even with a keyboard the iPad is often given the nod as the better buy.
The entire network team here at work each got a netbook. On Saturday, the guy who inspected a house I'm trying to buy wrote his report on a netbook and printed it out on a small portable printer for me. On my last work trip out to Iowa, my boss chose to bring his netbook with him instead of the laptop given to him by work, and he and a woman in Iowa got into a big chat about how awesome their netbooks were (she was using one at the meeting as well.)
It seems as though I see netbooks more and more these days. They obviously serve some basic functionality for many people.
How did you land on your conclusion about them going away?
netbook sales are declining, netbook company CEOs blame the iPad for the decline. Apple is expanding production, Asus is scaling back production. Anecdotal evidence that someone bought a netbook doesn't change industry trends.
"In June, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs predicted that the iPad and devices like it are part of an "uncomfortable" transition to the post-PC era." ...
There was an uncomfortable transition to MP3 players, and iPod led the way. Now there's an uncomfortable transition to smart phones with touch screens, and iPhone is leading the way. And there's also an uncomfortable transition to iPad-like devices, and yes, iPad is leading the way.
Apple won the MP3 player battle with iPod. And iPod touch totally dominates the mobile internet device market in general. There aren't even any competitors. (Unless you count Zune, but its sales round down to zero.) Time will tell whether iPhone and iPad dominate their markets, but so far Apple is looking good.
Oh, and there's one more thing. There will soon be an uncomfortable transition to internet-enabled TVs that run apps. Apple is just barely scratching the surface on that with the new Apple TV. But as always, they have a long-term plan that leverages their existing technologies. And it will likely involve iOS on Apple TV, iTunes App Store, and the giant North Carolina server facility Apple has nearly finished. Once again, Apple will lead the way.
Jobs compared the move to mobile devices like the iPad to the U.S. automobile industry, when most vehicles were trucks because they were driven by farmers. He noted that cars became more popular as cities rose, and features like power steering and automatic transmission were added over time.
"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. He noted that he believes traditional computers will remain, but will eventually represent a smaller number of users.
I just can't get through life without a truck and Mac desktop machine. I always cringe when I see people at Home Depot trying to load lumber into a compact sedan.
Of course I also have an iPad and a compact sedan.
I just can't get through life without a truck and Mac desktop machine. I always cringe when I see people at Home Depot trying to load lumber into a compact sedan.
Of course I also have an iPad and a compact sedan.
You can rent a truck at Home Depot for less then the cost of owning one. Although I'm not sure where the analogy is going...
Personally I can see us losing the desktop eventually. If these device can never have significant processing power, then they will just offload processing to a home server or the cloud. Mainly I see lightweight, inexpensive, energy saving devices. Some of them could return to a laptop form factor, but still work like an iPad. I could even see my big monitors replaced with a circle of a half dozen iPads. If they integrate well together, why not?
You can rent a truck at Home Depot for less then the cost of owning one. Although I'm not sure where the analogy is going...
You're right but you can also rent a PC. I have always enjoyed owning a truck and I use it a lot, just like my Mac. I use the iPhone and the iPad much less often. It is nice to have a device/vehicle for every situation. I'm not even sure why I have a Windows PC since I use it very, very infrequently, but if I need it I have it. I have every form factor that Apple makes.
If I could afford it I would add a Prancing Horse to my stable.
The entire network team here at work each got a netbook. On Saturday, the guy who inspected a house I'm trying to buy wrote his report on a netbook and printed it out on a small portable printer for me. On my last work trip out to Iowa, my boss chose to bring his netbook with him instead of the laptop given to him by work, and he and a woman in Iowa got into a big chat about how awesome their netbooks were (she was using one at the meeting as well.)
It seems as though I see netbooks more and more these days. They obviously serve some basic functionality for many people.
How did you land on your conclusion about them going away?
Personal experience, for starters. I have a netbook that I do not like. Granted I'm a Mac user so the whole Windows thing is not appealing. I have a relative who works for a chain of stores that sell office supplies, electronic equipment, etc. They're feedback regarding netbooks has been negative. Apparently some customers are unhappy with them. Sales of netbooks have apparently slowed since the introduction of the iPad. The netbook form factor is intrinsically inferior to the touchscreen tablet for a number of functions, many of which the netbooks were purchased in the first place.
My netbook runs out of battery power in less than two hours. Not nearly enough. The iPad lasts considerably longer. The track pad is a pain to use and the keyboard not great for someone like me with larger hands. The iPad is very easy to manipulate. The netbook is painfully slow at just about everything. Not nearly enough horsepower. I haven't used the iPad but I suspect it's quicker. I certainly hope it is. Software bundled with the netbook was rather meagre though my standards are high because I've been a long-time Mac owner. Software for the iPad is easy to acquire and inexpensive.
Perhaps there are limited scenarios in which the netbook works better but I wouldn't put much stock in the fact that you see people using them. Once you've bought the thing, short of returning it in the first month, you're not going to take something you've paid for and cast it aside. I use my netbook all the time but that doesn't mean that I enjoy using it or would want to buy another one.
You can't expect that a product that is good for a small percentage of consumers has a future. I doubt there's much margin in netbooks and if market share drops dramatically in the next few years in favour of touchscreen devices, development of the small laptops will slow considerably. Eventually it will just stop.
More complexity, more demands on hardware, more connectors, leads to greater weight, more power consumption, etc. all of which are undesirable in a handheld device.
None of what he is asking for in having the iPad be more independent from a computer requires different hardware. It's all software. Indeed, I fully expect over time the ability to activate, manage and sync to Mobile.Me or some other follow on service - with no dependency on a Mac OSX or Windows computer at all.
It's the next logical progression and not a big leap. For people like my father, the general purpose computer was always a non-starter. The iPad is perfect for him - and he's not alone. Don't think Apple doesn't see this as the next, great untapped market. I suspect this is what North Carolina is for - more so than for iTunes (although I wouldn't be surprised if they do that too). The truth is for 90% of people with general purpose computers at home they total overkill and more of a liability than an asset. They don't understand them and resent being at the mercy of The Geek Squad or technical friends and family. This is the sweet spot for the iPad and whatever follow-on devices Apple is planning. Devices that are computing appliances and that do a limited set of functions, and do them extremely well with little to no overhead.
It doesn't mean general purpose computers are going away, or that Apple is going to come in the middle of the night and confiscate them. It does mean that sales of them, at least to individuals instead of businesses, will probably fall dramatically. Indeed, there is evidence that is in fact happening.
How did you land on your conclusion about them going away?
I dunno, the CEO of Acer moaning about their tanking sales might have had some to do with it.
Maybe just a little...
None of what he is asking for in having the iPad be more independent from a computer requires different hardware. It's all software. Indeed, I fully expect over time the ability to activate, manage and sync to Mobile.Me or some other follow on service - with no dependency on a Mac OSX or Windows computer at all.
It's the next logical progression and not a big leap. For people like my father, the general purpose computer was always a non-starter. The iPad is perfect for him - and he's not alone. Don't think Apple doesn't see this as the next, great untapped market. I suspect this is what North Carolina is for - more so than for iTunes (although I wouldn't be surprised if they do that too). The truth is for 90% of people with general purpose computers at home they total overkill and more of a liability than an asset. They don't understand them and resent being at the mercy of The Geek Squad or technical friends and family. This is the sweet spot for the iPad and whatever follow-on devices Apple is planning. Devices that are computing appliances and that do a limited set of functions, and do them extremely well with little to no overhead.
It doesn't mean general purpose computers are going away, or that Apple is going to come in the middle of the night and confiscate them. It does mean that sales of them, at least to individuals instead of businesses, will probably fall dramatically. Indeed, there is evidence that is in fact happening.
The problem is that if you allow for the iPad to be operated independent of a full-function computer, at this time, it's inevitable that some fools will come along and whine about what a weak computer the iPad is. Not enough memory. Not enough computing power. Not enough connection options. Doesn't run OS X apps. Blah, blah, blah, on and on and on.
By making it right now a complimentary device, Apple is making it clear that the iPad, in its present form, is not intended to be a computer replacement. In time, this will probably change. Computing power will improve dramatically, memory will go up significantly, etc.
Do you, for instance, have any idea how expensive it would be to offer the amount of memory most of us would need to store what we want to store? If you're storing tons of data on a desktop computer, that frees you to offer significantly less memory on a portable companion device. Even 64GB, these days, is horribly inadequate for the average consumer. When people were storing mainly music and text files, there was no problem. But now, visual files are a very important part of the average consumer's collection. When Apple starts offering a 128GB iPad as the entry-level machine, then we can start to consider the iPad a viable desktop/laptop substitute for people who are not very demanding of their computers.
Apple does an excellent job of managing expectations. The iPad is not, as it is today, meant to be one's sole computing device. If you let that line blur, it's inviting trouble. Basically if you open the door to the iPad being a computing alternative, rather than a complimentary device, you'd better be prepared to deliver a device far more capable than today's technology allows in an affordable, hand-held, touch-screen device.
For every three or four folks with modest computing requirements you'll get one fool who wants the iPad to do it all. That fool would be rather loud and damaging. Apple is wise to not give that segment ammunition.
I can believe this. If iPads get most of the software features of computers, there won't be much of a point lugging or even accessing my Macbook Pro, even if it's remotely from school to home.
No. Just no. Trust me, the iPad won't replace anything. Telling you this from experience.
Why? Lemme begin... My MacBook broke then I was stuck using an iPad and iPod Touch for several months. The only way I could sync my data to it was from creating a temporary account on a laptop I was borrowing from a family member when it was no longer needed.
Not being able download/send files, view Flash (though honestly not a huge issue), and multitask got really annoying. Even more so that I was stuck getting apps only from the App Store, which goes back to my first annoyance on downloading, and the catalog was very limiting since it device is still fresh out of the oven. Even when I tried jailbreaking many of the apps were still only designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch. All while my music, movies, and tv show just sat there on the device because the rest were still on my MacBook. After a while I just said just said F* it and deleted all of it.
Didn't take until I got a new power cord for my iBook G4 with Ubuntu 10.04 LTS that I was stuck on that for month or two before I decided to sell it to get a netbook. Something I wanted to get even before Apple announced it.
End rant.
I have a netbook. I bought it to tinker with and for the most part it's fun enough. As far as usability goes the iPad is vastly superior. The cramped keyboard coupled with the teeny touchpad makes inputting data, as well as manipulating what's already there, a chore.
I think for the crowd that netbooks are aimed for, the iPad is a much better solution (my opinion). This is particularly true if you buy the keyboard accessory for easier input of large quantities of text.
You also spent about twice the amount of money on an iPad as well, there's a point you should expect more for certain functions.
But, I think the current iPad is a very 1st gen device, and given Apple's track record with the 2g iPhone and 1st iPod Touch, their 1st gen devices age very quickly.
I have a netbook, circa 2008, and it fits the bill still, as it can run a full OS, and has more storage space than any iPad (160 GB vs up to 64 GB), and it has an SD slot/USB without requiring even more money from me. It's also not anchored to iTunes, which just kills the current iPad for me, and it just makes me think of it as a bigger version of my iPod Touch.
No. Just no. Trust me, the iPad won't replace anything. Telling you this from experience.
Why? Lemme begin... My MacBook broke then I was stuck using an iPad and iPod Touch for several months. The only way I could sync my data to it was from creating a temporary account on a laptop I was borrowing from a family member when it was no longer needed.
Not being able download/send files, view Flash (though honestly not a huge issue), and multitask got really annoying. Even more so that I was stuck getting apps only from the App Store, which goes back to my first annoyance on downloading, and the catalog was very limiting since it device is still fresh out of the oven. Even when I tried jailbreaking many of the apps were still only designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch.
It didn't take until I got a new power cord for my iBook G4 with Ubuntu 10.04 LTS that I was stuck on that for month or two before I decided to sell it to get a netbook. Something I wanted to get even before Apple announced it.
End rant.
As I said earlier, we've already replaced one need for a computer with an iPad, not only could it replace a computer for that task, it's better suited than any laptop or netbook for that task. We will soon replace another need for a computer with one. And when they add printing in november, we have yet another place we can use one.
And part of the problem with what you said is you seem to assume that the iPad is not going to evolve. I have no doubt that in 5 years more people will use computers that are iPad like than ones that are netbook like.
The other problem with what you said is you're missing a huge part of the market. One reason for the iPad's success is that it's hands down the easiest to use computer ever made. Many people don't want all of the complexity of their work computer when they are doing leisure computing. Many more only do leisure computing.
My biggest problem with my iPad is figuring out which of my kids (ages 9-18) is using it when I need it. They all love it and all prefer it over their notebook and netbook computers. They use it to play games, watch movies, watch TV shows, read books, browse the net, etc, etc.
I think a more reasonable explanation would be that people are not really migrating to Windows 7, and PC sales are not picking up as much as they would otherwise. Over 80% of the Windows installed base is on XP, which has not even been available for a year now.
I would actually think slowing PC sales are a signal of something even bigger in the marketplace... people are getting sick of Windows, with all the viruses, spyware, etc. But because of typical inertia, they are not ready to make the jump to Mac yet. Exploding Mac sales are an indication that some of these people are willing to overcome inertia. This is verified by Steve Job's statement that over 50% of new Mac buyers are switchers.
In a couple of years, this could become a flood, and we could see serious market share increases for Mac.
As much as I like the Mac I think the slow adoption of Windows 7 and slower than expected PC sales has more to do with inertia then anything else. The time between XP and Vista was the longest (5 years) between OS updates for Microsoft and even when it finally came out Vista was slow compared to XP.
It doesn't help that Microsoft's idea of XP "comparability" is to run XP on Virtual PC resulting in the totally ridiculous situation of running a Windows program that emulates PC hardware on a PC so that you can run older Windows programs.
So companies that were leery of updating their OS (and programs) back with Vista look at this and go "if still works reasonably well why upgrade?" For 90% of what people use a computer for XP works well enough.
Overall PC sales might be down, but that has nothing to do with the iPad. Are there more than 5 iPad owners out there that don't also own some other form of computer? Did anyone who bought an iPad not have a computer in the first place or cancel ever buying a computer again as a result?
At this point, the iPad is no more a PC replacement than an iPod touch is. Maybe in a few years some people will drop Notebooks and Desktops altogether in favour of the iPad, but that isn't happening now.
(Cue fanboys leaping to the defensive)
I dunno, the CEO of Acer moaning about their tanking sales might have had some to do with it.
Maybe just a little...
You didn't answer the question, and instead you just come off as someone who doesn't sound very intelligent at all. Acer's sales dip, and suddenly there isn't a market for netbooks?
I guess there hasn't EVER been a similar situation... Oh wait, didn't Apple's sales dip with their computers? Yeah, like a MAJOR dip. What are they doing now? Oh right, still making computers.
Netbooks aren't going away. They will simply continue to evolve.
This story is retarded.
Overall PC sales might be down, but that has nothing to do with the iPad. Are there more than 5 iPad owners out there that don't also own some other form of computer? Did anyone who bought an iPad not have a computer in the first place or cancel ever buying a computer again as a result?
At this point, the iPad is no more a PC replacement than an iPod touch is. Maybe in a few years some people will drop Notebooks and Desktops altogether in favour of the iPad, but that isn't happening now.
(Cue fanboys leaping to the defensive)
what is the logic that says that an iPad has to be the only computer being used for it to replace the need for a computer? I've already mentioned a couple of times in this thread that our company has found places where we are using iPads instead of computers. These are places that previously we would have bought a computer for that job, but now not only is the iPad fine for the job, it actually works significantly better than using a laptop or netbook computer to do the same job.
And I use mine for meetings, both work meetings, lunch meetings, appointments. I don't even have a laptop computer at work - the iPad does everything I need when I'm not at my desk and is lighter and more convenient than any notebook/netbook computer. The built in 3G networking means I don't even need an airless router wherever I am to keep up with emails and stuff.
The iPad is quite clearly replacing the need for some computers, but not the need for all computers.
what is the logic that says that an iPad has to be the only computer being used for it to replace the need for a computer? I've already mentioned a couple of times in this thread that our company has found places where we are using iPads instead of computers. These are places that previously we would have bought a computer for that job, but now not only is the iPad fine for the job, it actually works significantly better than using a laptop or netbook computer to do the same job.
And I use mine for meetings, both work meetings, lunch meetings, appointments. I don't even have a laptop computer at work - the iPad does everything I need when I'm not at my desk and is lighter and more convenient than any notebook/netbook computer. The built in 3G networking means I don't even need an airless router wherever I am to keep up with emails and stuff.
The iPad is quite clearly replacing the need for some computers, but not the need for all computers.
OK, so you're saying that situations like yours with the iPad have created a glut of RAM on the market, which is driving RAM prices noticably down, in agreement with the article? You think the iPad is the reason? Not global economic downturn and less people buying high-end PCs with lots of memory? That's where the bullshit lies in the article.